|
29/30 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Rene Reyes CHN (NRI) 3rd playoff homer, 4 RBI ...
Bobby Abreu PHI 6th playoff homer ... Miguel Tejada BAL, heatin' up
for ST, 4-6, homer, 4 RBI ... Jose Guillen WAS 3-4 ... Caribbean Series
opens Tuesday, Mexico against Venezuela
No word at upload time on the prospects going to the Cubs in the Sosa deal.
It's in the mail ! The first shipments of
Ken Warren's Ball Park Figures, 2005 are on the way. Ken's 2nd
annual publication provides analysis of all players expected to play in the
majors in '05. Pitcher projections include IP, BB, K, HR, xERA, W, Sv, and
"player value". Hitter projections include AB, BB, K, HR, RBI, SB, BA, OBA, SLG,
OPS, "player value", defensive rating, 2004 games played by position. For
Scoresheet purposes and ease of understanding, it's the one for me.
More kudos for Cubs' first sacker Brian Dopirak. Jim Callis,
handling the Chicago prospect report for
Baseball America, selects the power-hitting infielder as the best of the
team's prospects. Felix Pie ranks No. 2, just ahead of
Ryan Harvey. Callis with some Cubbie notes in the
BA chat room
:
" ... When some of the BA editors put together our
personal Top 50s for the Prospect Handbook, I put Dopirak at No. 26. He
has huge power and has a clue at the plate. He also was 20 last year, so he has
plenty of time to develop. I like him more than Howard, and while Stokes is a
prospect, I think he's generally overrated. I'd easily take Dopirak over
Stokes."
Angel Guzman " ... Guzman
began his rehab as soon as he could after he had his shoulder scoped in 2003,
and he worked so hard without taking time off, that he was worn out before the
end of the 2004 season. The Cubs just decided there was no hurry, so they shut
him down as a precautionary measure. He should be good to go in 2005, and you
may see him in Wrigley Field at some point this summer."
Bobby Brownlie " ... He's still
part of the Cubs' future. His velocity isn't nearly what it was in college, as
he pitched at 87-90 mph, but he has learned how to pitch without his best
fastball. If it ever bounces back, he could really be something."
Renyel Pinto " ... I don't think
Renyel Pinto is overrated, and you have to respect the year he had in Double-A
as a 21.5-year-old. But some scouts think he doesn't pitch as well as the
sum of his stuff or his stats might indicate, mostly because his command and
location are his weakness. He's still young and fairly advanced, so I can see
him turning out pretty well."
Jon Connolly " ... I think he's
just going to squeeze in at the end (the 11-30 list is still a work in
progress). Connolly has had great numbers, but he's also a one-pitch guy
(changeup) whose the definition of finesse. Without a legit fastball or
curveball, he might really struggle above Class A."
Richard Lewis " ... He did have
a great season, winning Southern League MVP honors before going to Triple-A and
breaking his leg on a routine slide. Lewis is better than a marginal prospect,
though he's more of a solid all-around guy than someone who possessing
overwhelming tools ... Lewis just missed the Top 10, and it will be
interesting to see if he can 1) repeat his 2004 success and 2) if he does,
whether Dusty Baker will give him the chance to be the Cubs' second baseman in
2006."
Ian Bladergroen, from #4 on the Mets to #9 in BOS.
Jim Callis,
Baseball America :
" ... Bladergroen is an interesting hitter, but he
really hasn't faced a true challenge in pro ball and I'm not ready to label him
a blue-chip prospect yet. Scouts also are a little skeptical of his bat speed
and how it will play at higher levels. When the Prospect Handbook comes out,
you'll find Bladergroen at No. 9 on my Red Sox list, between catcher Kelly
Shoppach and lefthander Abe Alvarez. Replacing Bladergroen on our Mets Top 10
will be easy, because 2004 first-rounder Philip Humber finally signed after the
original list came out. Humber will be No. 3, behind outfielder Lastings
Milledge and righthander Yusmeiro Petit, pushing fellow 2004 draft righty Gaby
Hernandez down to fill what had been Bladergroen's No. 4 spot."
Jim's picks as the top 10 pitching prospects:
1. Felix Hernandez, rhp, Mariners
2. Scott Kazmir, lhp, Devil Rays
3. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
4. Chad Billingsley, rhp, Dodgers
5. Matt Cain, rhp, Giants
6. Jeff Niemann, rhp, Devil Rays
7. Edwin Jackson, rhp, Dodgers
8. Jeff Francis, lhp, Rockies
9. Dan Meyer, lhp, Athletics
10. Mike Hinckley, lhp, Nationals
Bryan Smith, Wait Til Next Year,
with notes on a pair of top 2004 picks (not eligible for his Top 75) :
" ... Stephen Drew is probably the largest
question mark to sign, given his brother’s history and the Diamondbacks’ depth
at shortstop (especially when Justin Upton joins). I don’t think the latter
should hold up negotiations, but it gives Arizona a viable excuse should they
pass on Drew’s $5M+ price tag. If signed, Drew should probably be moved to
centerfield, though I think second base would work as well. His plate discipline
is very sound, and his bat is as polished as they come. My guess would be that
his ceiling is about 25 home runs, but given his position and solid contact
skills, that would work. Drew would likely slot in right in front of
organization-mate Sergio Santos, though still third in the Arizona prospect
lists."
" ... Jeff Niemann ... was the rage as
a sophomore when Rice won the CWS, showing stuff that few see in college
baseball. His ceiling is probably higher than anyone in the draft, but it’s the
likelihood to reach that ceiling that worries me. Given his huge frame, I think
Niemann should at least end up a reliever if his career curtails, where he could
throw a high-90s fastball with consistency. Either way, this was a great pick by
the Devil Rays, and Niemann could be anywhere between 40-50, definitely in front
of Denny Bautista and right near the status of Merkin Valdez and Angel Guzman."
John Sickels,
ESPN.com, on Dewon Brazelton TB :
" ... Stuff-wise, he still has his 90-94 mph
fastball and a very good changeup. But he still has problems with his slider ...
Given his age, pedigree and arm strength, no one will give up on him quickly.
What do the numbers tell us? Brazelton was more effective in 2004 than he was in
2003, setting a career-best 4.77 ERA. But "career-best 4.77 ERA" is not exactly
a strong endorsement, and his component numbers remain unimpressive ...
The walk rate isn't completely awful, but the strikeout rate is unacceptably low
and is a huge red flag for his future ... My guess is that Brazelton may
eventually find his niche in relief. In any event, the first sign of real
improvement will be a rise in his strikeout rate."
Los Angeles still looking for a replacement for Adrian Beltre :
" ... The Dodgers submitted a bid Friday on Japanese
free agent third baseman Norihiro Nakamura and will learn next week
whether they have won the rights to negotiate with the 31-year-old. Nakamura
trained with the Dodgers last spring while healing from a knee injury ...
It is believed the Dodgers would offer him a minor league contract with an
invitation to Major League spring camp. Nakamura had 46 and 42 home runs in 2001
and 2002, but those numbers dropped to 23 and 19 in 2003 and 2004." (MLB.com)
SEA pleased, so far, with recoveries from the medical ward :
" ... Trainer Rick Griffin had positive reports on
every Seattle player coming off injury, noting that Joel Pineiro (elbow)
and Eddie Guardado (shoulder, knee) are working out and throwing. Also,
Bucky Jacobsen (knee surgery) is in a full rehab program and hitting in
the Safeco Field batting cages. "It's only the cages, but he has no pain,"
Griffin said. "It was more serious than we first thought once the doctor went
inside the knee and found the divot to be twice as big as the MRI showed, and
also because he's such a big guy. But he's coming along." So, too, for
[Rafael] Soriano, who had Tommy John elbow-tendon replacement surgery last
year. "It's usually 12 to 15 months to come back, but he might be able to do it
in 11," Griffin said. "He could pitch in the majors in July, if it continues to
go smoothly." (Seattle Times)
Again, a big hand for David Farr who's been superb in tracking down
missing NRIs. And, the
40-man rosters have been updated (finally found
confirmation on the cut to get the ARZ roster down to 40). Now we can
begin to concentrate on the 25-man rosters.
28 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Jose Lima KC 6.2 3 1 1 0 3 ... Ramon Ortiz
CIN 5.1 2 2 2 3 5 ... Miguel Tejada BAL 1-4, homer ... Jonathan
Albaladejo PIT 9.0 3 0 0 0 6 (3-0, 0.42 in the playoffs) ... Jose
Castillo PIT 1-2, 2 walks, homer ... Miguel Cabrera FLO 1-4
(in 20 playoff games, Cabrera his hitting .414 with 8 doubles & 9 homers, 17
walks, 18 Ks)
Mark Allen Haverty, SportsBlurb, has a piece in The Sporting News, on some
of the winter-ball performers :
" ... Jose Castillo ... Rushed to the
majors last season after just one season in Double-A, Castillo did little to
impress at the plate, hitting .256 in 129 games, with eight home runs and 39
RBIs. Not sparkling, but his glove certainly made up for his offensive
shortcomings ... showed aptitude with the bat while playing for Caracas
Leones in the Venezuelan Winter League. In 54 games, Castillo finished second in
batting average (.364) and also slugged 10 homers and drove in 38 runs. After
posting a pathetic .666 OPS in the bigs in 2004, Castillo had a 1.007 OPS in
Venezuela. Sure, Venezuela is not the majors, but this is certainly positive
progress."
" ... Rick Ankiel ... easy
to forget that he is just 25 years old. One of the hottest young studs in the
minors, Ankiel made it to the bigs in 1999 and flourished in 2000 before
crashing and burning in 2001. He would not make it back until late last year.
Beyond injuries, which sidetracked his return to the majors, Ankiel battled
major control issues. But he seemed to be over them in 2004, and that has
continued in his stint with Carolina in the Puerto Rican League. Ankiel has made
six starts for the Gigantes, going 1-1 with a 3.25 ERA. In 27.2 innings, Ankiel
has struck out 31, walking just seven ... could be a late-round steal if
he nails down a starting rotation job this spring."
Brian Pelowski, CREATiVESPORTS, also with some notes from winter ball :
" ... Jorge Cantu ... burst onto the
scene last year after a huge power spike at Triple-A Durham earned him enough
attention to receive a mid-season call-up. He didn’t continue his power surge in
the majors but he did hit .301 in 173 at-bats. This winter he hit .319 with 11
home runs in 185 at-bats in the Mexican Pacific League. His K/BB ratio could
stand to improve but at only 23-years-old he’s young enough to make some strides
in this area yet. The Devil Rays signed Roberto Alomar as their regular second
baseman so Cantu will have to hope to earn a spot as a utility player this
spring."
" ... Dan Johnson ... MVP of the Pacific
Coast League, hit .248 with 12 home runs and a .411 on-base percentage in the
Mexican Pacific League this winter. The 25-year-old is probably ready for a
chance in the majors but he’s blocked by Scott Hatteberg and Erubiel Durazo on
the Oakland roster. He’ll head to Triple-A to start the season but if Hatteberg
or Durazo get hurt, Johnson will get his opportunity. Be ready to grab him if he
gets his chance."
Richie Gardner selected as the Reds' Minor League Player of the Year :
" ... The lanky Californian went 13-5 with a 2.53
ERA between Potomac and Chattanooga ... Gardner is the first player to win the
award in his debut season, a definite indication that he's on the fast track to
the majors. Even Naehring [Tim Naehring, Reds' director of player development],
who generally counsels patience in moving prospects through the system, sees
something different in Gardner. "Looking at the total picture, he may need a
little more seasoning in the minor leagues, but he's a guy you could make a case
for moving pretty quickly and being in Cincinnati somewhat in the short term,"
said Naehring. ... "Yes, eventually he'll get to a point where he has to
make some adjustments and learn to pitch to better hitters, but he's not going
to hurt himself during the process. He's going to throw strikes, he's going to
give himself a chance to win each and every night he takes the ball." ...
Control is one of the main reasons the Reds are so high on Gardner. They spent
all of last season trying to hammer the virtues of throwing strikes early and
often into the heads of pitchers at every level in the organization, and few
executed the concept as well as Gardner. In 156 2/3 innings last season, he
walked only 26 batters while striking out 139." (Cincinnati Post)
Trying to make up my mind on what to do with Casey Kotchman. Went
back to AngelsWin.com.
I think I'll keep 'em (in spite of the 2005 uncertainty) :
" ... the quintessential hitter that most
teams covet ... wasn’t fazed by either AA or AAA pitching. In AA he went
.368/.438/.544 and in AAA Salt Lake .372/.423/.558 while slugging 31 doubles and
7 home runs combined. In his brief stint with the Halo’s when Erstad went down,
he showed early on that he can hit ML pitching. It took him 48 plate appearances
before even striking out and his classic 17 pitch duel with Pedro Martinez
showed many that he isn’t far off. Kotchman showed flashes of defensive
brilliance that lead the Angels to believe the 21-year-old will eventually be a
perennial Gold Glove award candidate ... does have below average speed and his
power potential at this point seems to determine whether he’ll be a Mark
Grace\Will Clark type first baseman or Rafael Palmeiro\Todd Helton type ...
Whatever the Angels decide what to do with Darin Erstad will determine when
Kotchman will be given the first base job. Kotchman has all the makings of
becoming a perennial all star and golden glove winner. ETA: 2005 Player
comparison: Todd Helton (minus the Coors effect)."
Peter Gammons,
ESPN.com, on the future up the middle in BOS :
" ... on the Boston model, there were those who
wondered why they went so hard after Edgar Renteria. But the Red Sox feel that
Hanley Ramirez's skills are so exceptional that three years from now Renteria at
short and Ramirez in center will be a far more productive middle of the field
than Ramirez at short and whomever they can find in center because those middle
field, multi-dimensional outfielders are so rare."
Pirates' righty out for the season :
" ... John Van Benschoten will not pitch this
season, but he is determined to pitch again someday rather than return to his
roots as a position player. Van Benschoten, a right-hander who was the Pirates'
first pick in the 2001 draft, will have arthroscopic surgery today in
Birmingham, Ala., to repair a slight tear of the posterior labrum and remove a
cyst in his throwing shoulder. The noted orthopedist Dr. James Andrews, who
examined Van Benschoten yesterday, will perform the operation at 9 a.m. The
timetable for a return to pitching is 10-12 months, although recent precedents
point to taking close to two years to regain top form ... In his senior year at
Kent State University in 2001, he led all NCAA Division I players with 31 home
runs and batted .440 while pitching only as a closer. Many observers were
surprised when the Pirates announced upon drafting him that they would convert
him full time to pitching. He will turn 25 April 14 and could be 27 by the time
he regains peak effectiveness as a pitcher, but he likely would be able to play
a position before he turns 26. Still, neither the Pirates nor Van Benschoten are
having discussions about a move off the mound. "None whatsoever," Pirates
general manager Dave Littlefield said. "I'll be back on the mound," Van
Benschoten said. "I know that." (Pittsburgh Post Gazette)
27 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Fernando just keeps rollin' along ... Valenzuela 5.1 5 2
2 1 2 ... Bill Pulsipher 6.1 5 1 1 1 3 ... good news for the A's,
Juan Cruz OAK 7.0 3 0 0 1 4 ...
Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld.com, moves on to the NL East to pick the best of
that division's prospects. Among the picks :
#4 WAS " ... Larry Broadway ...
he had a solid enough year to remain in Washington’s plans. A 2002 third-round
pick out of Duke, Broadway projects as a .280 hitter and 25-homer guy from the
left side of the plate. His defense at first base is a little above average.
Nick Johnson probably won’t remain in Washington for the long-term, so Broadway
could be a candidate for a starting job as soon as 2006."
#! PHI " ... Cole Hamels ...
ranked as the No. 9 prospect in the 2004 top 100, made just four starts last
year due to what was called elbow inflammation. He reportedly threw well during
the Florida Instructional League and he will start this season on the time, but
there is reason for concern that there’s something more serious going on. The
Phillies will have to hope that isn’t the case since Hamels is one of the most
talented pitchers in the minors ... has a chance to be a No. 1 or No. 2
starter."
#3 NYN " ... Philip Humber ...
Maybe the second best pitching prospect to come out of the 2004 draft, Humber
finally signed with the Mets this month. The right-hander doesn’t have the
upside of Justin Verlander or former Rice University teammate Jeff Niemann, but
Jered Weaver is the only better bet to settle in as a quality second or third
starter. Humber throws 91-94 mph and has an excellent curveball. His splitter is
strictly a third pitch ... He could be ready for the majors in 2006."
#! FLO " ... Jeremy Hermida ...
slugged just .377 in his first 1 ½ pro seasons after being selected 11th overall
in the 2002 draft, but he started to display power last season, slugging .441 in
the big ballparks of the Florida State League and finishing tied for third in
the Arizona Fall League with seven homers. With his sweet line-drive swing, he’s
almost certain to become at least an average regular in the majors, and if he
turns into a 30-homer guy, he’s a future All-Star. 20-25 might be more
realistic."
#4 ATL " ... Jake Stevens ...
a 2003 third-round pick, continued to show very good command and strike out a
batter an inning in 2004. The southpaw throws 88-91 mph and fans batters with an
excellent curveball. His changeup is an effective third pitch. Injuries could be
a problem as he climbs the ladder, but if he stays healthy, he might be a factor
before the end of 2006."
Homer David Bailey zooms to the top of the CIN Top 10 at
Baseball America. The Reds' top pick in last June's draft, Bailey
leapt over third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and SP Richie Gardner to take the top
rung. John Manuel handled the questions in the chat room :
Bailey " ... I like Homer quite a bit.
It's hard to rank a prep pitcher as the No. 1 prospect in an organization when
he hasn't even pitched in a full-season league yet, but that's the kind of
upside scouts say that Bailey has."
Joey Votto
" ... Votto is intriguing; I don't think he's a 30-homer guy in the
big leagues, but the tools, the swing, the plate discipline, it all looks like a
guy who can hit for a high average, draw a lot of walks and hit 20 homers a
year. Is that a starter on a championship team? It frankly sounds like the Sean
Casey profile in a lot of ways. If Casey gets too pricey, Votto should turn out
to be a viable replacement."
Edwin Encarnaction " ... Scouts
from other organizations who saw Encarnacion in winter ball consider him a
.280-.340-.480 type of hitter, and the Reds of course like him quite a bit,
maybe better than that. That's above-average for a big league 3b, and he
certainly has the tools to be a good defender at the position. That kind of
production is hard to find at 3B these days. Sounds like an Aaron Boone-type."
Another possible roadblock for Jose Lopez SEA. The Mariners have signed
another shortstop, Cuban Yuniesky Betancourt, 22 :
" ... Yuniesky is an athletic, offensive
shortstop," Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. "We view him as the
equivalent of a first- or second-round draft pick." ... Betancourt played second
base from 2001-03 with Villa Clara in the Cuban National League. Villa Clara's
starting shortstop, Eduardo Paret, has played with the Cuban national team since
1995. Betancourt hit .288 with 43 runs scored, four homers and 45 RBIs for Villa
Clara in 2002, then improved to .317 in 2003 with 64 runs, seven homers and 52
RBIs in 2003 before he left Cuba. He started at shortstop for Cuba's 17- and
18-year-old national team in the 2000 world championships at Edmonton, Canada,
hitting .523 in the tournament." (Associated Press)
Again our thanks to David Farr, sleuth of the NRIs extraordinaire (sounds
like a PBS mini-series). With major assistance from David, our
Non-Roster-Invitee list has been growing by leaps
and bounds.
Oh oh. Another young gun might bite the dust.
" ... John Van Benschoten's season could be
over before he has a chance to climb a mound. The Pirates have learned that Van
Benschoten, a right-hander who was their first-round draft pick in 2001, has a
slightly torn labrum and a cyst in his throwing shoulder. He will see noted
orthopedist Dr. James Andrews today in Birmingham, Ala., to determine if surgery
is necessary. If it is, it will be 10-12 months until he can pitch competitively
again. Van Benschoten yesterday seemed resigned to having surgery and missing
the coming season ... Pirates general manager Dave Littlefield said the team is
not assuming surgery is inevitable. "We'll wait until we have Dr. Andrews'
diagnosis," Littlefield said. "Until we have that, it's too early get into any
kind of projections." The injury was a surprise to Van Benschoten and the
Pirates." (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Jeremy Reed in CF? Jim Moore, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, thinks
he'll be a fan fav :
" ... last September, he looked ready, batting .397
in his first 18 games as a major leaguer. That was when Bob Melvin was still the
manager, calling Reed "a steal" in the deal that sent Freddy Garcia to the
Chicago White Sox ... If you didn't already develop a liking for Reed last year,
you will this year. He's the anti-prima donna. He will play the game the right
way. He will always have dirt on his jersey. He will look you in the eye and
earn his paycheck. "I'm hard-nosed and will give it my all," he said. "I'll do
everything I can to win and leave it all on the field." ... I remember
seeing him and thinking, "That guy just looks like a baseball player." And
that's what he is, one with a knack for hitting and making the right first step
on contact, compensating for his lack of blazing speed. "Everybody talks about
(my) instincts," Reed said. "I don't pay attention to that. I just try to catch
it." If Griffey and Mike Cameron are 10's defensively on a 1-to-10 scale, Reed's
a "7 or 8 with upside," said Bavasi, comparing him favorably to St. Louis' Jim
Edmonds."
26 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Manny Aybar NYN (NRI) 6.0 5 2 2 3 6 ... Luis
Rodriguez MIN 5-6, double, homer, 4 RBI ... Rene Reyes CHN
(NRI) 3-6, 2 homers, 4 RBI
Dayn Perry has another
installment of his Top 100 at FoxSports (61 to 70) with Franklin Gutierrez
CLE heading the segment :
" ... Gutierrez showed monster power potential
in the low minors. He's got the best bat speed in the system, and he projects to
have perhaps 35-homer power at the highest level. He could stand to improve his
plate discipline, but there's time for that ... also boasts
excellent speed and defensive instincts in the outfield. He can handle center,
but profiles as a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder."
" ... 62. Kyle Davies ... makes hay
with a low-90s fastball with good life, overhand curve and tremendous changeup.
That his change is already so advanced bodes well for his future. With the
departure of Dan Meyer in the Tim Hudson trade, Davies is now the best pitcher
in a system that knows a thing or two about cultivating arms."
" ... 65. Shin-Soo Choo ... has genuine
leadoff skills and a smooth line-drive stroke. This past season, Choo hit .315
AVG/.382 OBP/.462 SLG despite playing in one of the toughest hitting
environments in all of Double-A. He has a tremendous throwing arm and excellent
defensive skills at the corners. He doesn't profile as much of a power hitter,
so he'll need to get on base at a strong clip if he's to remain valuable. Choo's
walk rates have declined notably since he was in the Midwest League, so that's a
trend to keep an eye on."
John Sickels,
ESPN.com, on Aaron Hill TOR :
" ... Although he is reliable and alert in the
field, many scouts have doubts about his ability to play shortstop on artificial
turf, since his natural range is not particularly impressive. He positions
himself well, and on grass his range isn't a severe problem, but on faster turf
he lacks the pure quickness that most teams prefer. Many believe he'll wind up
at second base or third base eventually ... On offense, Hill features a
quick bat and excellent strike-zone judgment. Plate discipline is his best
overall attribute ... scouts anticipate that he'll be good for 15-20 homers at
maturity ... His Major League Equivalent averages (MLE) says he's capable of
hitting .270-plus at the major league level right now with a good OBP ...
Although Hill likely doesn't have superstar talent, he has solid skills across
the board, and should be a solid major league player wherever he ends up."
AtHomePlate.com a good pit
stop at this time of the year as they're going through a position-by-position
analysis (not just rooks). A quick check of the AL catchers shows some
prime young talent to consider :
" ... John Buck ... Mark this guy on your
sleeper list although he’s not completely unknown. He’s capable of hitting for
both power and average and should get plenty of chances to make a name for
himself in the big leagues."
" ... Jeff Mathis ... The 22-year-old Mathis
looks like he’s going to be the real deal and has been cutting a swath through
the lower levels of the minors. He’s not going to be asked to make the big team
right off the bat but will probably start at AAA and try to earn a shot around
midseason. He’s a player to watch and possibly stash on keeper lists."
" ... Joe Mauer ... Billed as the next Mike
Piazza, Mauer is still a good distance from reaching those heights. His power is
still developing and he doesn’t have a lot of experience under his belt but
there is little doubt he’ll be a good one someday. It’s probably a little early
to expect 20 home runs but he surprised us last season with 6 topping even his
minor league best in that category."
The Diamondbacks getting anxious to get their first-rounder in the fold :
" ... Team officials will meet soon to form a
proposal for unsigned first-round pick Stephen Drew. "We would like to
have this (signing) done before spring training," scouting director Mike Rizzo
said. Drew, a shortstop, and Long Beach State pitcher Jered Weaver are the only
two unsigned first-round picks and are represented by adviser Scott Boras.
Negotiations could be affected by recent deals involving Rice pitchers Jeff
Niemann (five years, $5.2 million) and Phillip Humber (five years, $4.2
million). Multiyear contracts allow teams to spread their payments. Drew, who
hasn't enrolled in classes at Florida State for the spring semester, probably
will seek a multiyear, major league contract in excess of Rickie Weeks'
five-year deal that includes a $3.6 million signing bonus and guarantees him at
least $4.8 million." (Arizona Republic)
As you know, I'm really impressed with Brad Dowdy's work at
NoPepper. But, I went a little
too far yesterday in giving Brad credit for the analysis of the catchers in the
ATL system. In fact, it was a piece by Michael McHenry who's aboard
NoPepper to offer his acute perspective on the kids on the Braves' farm.
You're probably familiar with Michael's work from Braves Report and/or Minor
League Braves Blog. Brad is working on an update of his ATL Top 50.
SEA -- Felix Hernandez, possible MLB time this season ... former indy
pitcher in the running for a bullpen spot:
" ... "We didn't want him to throw, and he didn't,"
Looper said after Hernandez pitched almost 150 innings in 2004. "He's just 18,
and when we counted up the number of innings he threw last year, we wound up
slowing him down (reducing his innings) during the year. "He's got a chance to
be a very special kid. We want to be cautious. We don't want to put him in a
position where he'd come up with an arm injury. He's the real deal." Hernandez
has a fastball over 95 mph and has a curveball that scouts say will be one of
the best in the game. Hernandez has a slider, too, but doesn't throw it much
because it hasn't been necessary. He went 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA for Class AA San
Antonio last season after a promotion from Class A Inland Empire. General
manager Bill Bavasi said there is virtually no chance Hernandez would break camp
with the big leaguers, but he added it would come as no surprise if Hernandez
were in the big leagues sometime during the season
" ... Right-hander Rick Guttormson pitched
himself into the Mariners' plans by going 5-2 with a 1.15 ERA and four saves for
Lara in 21 games (one start). Like Mariners pitchers George Sherrill and Bobby
Madritsch, Guttormson was signed out of the independent Northern League. And
with 38 strikeouts and 11 walks in 31 1/3 innings with Lara, he's earned a long
look this spring." (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)
Tampa Bay ... who knows?
" ... Piniella welcomed the chance to use second
baseman Jorge Cantu in a utility role, now that Alomar is in the fold.
``Cantu's going to play. I like him,'' Piniella said. ``He did a nice job here
last year. We need somebody who can play all three positions. And we need to
rest these kids. And Cantu's perfect. He'll get a nice education, too, from
veteran players.''
" ... And then there's shortstop B.J. Upton,
whose 45-game stint with the Rays last year included flashes of brilliance at
the plate and in the field but may have been enough to convince the front office
that the 2002 first-round draft pick could use some defensive seasoning with
Triple-A Durham. ``We're going to give him a lot of playing time in spring
training, and we'll see what happens,'' Piniella said. ``It's getting a little
crowded, obviously. But we'll see what happens.'' (Tampa Tribune)
Rays' ace-in-waiting anxious to begin :
" ... Jeff Niemann will bring a repertoire of
two types of fastballs (two-seam and four-seam), a slider, a curve and a
changeup to Rays' camp when it opens on Feb. 18, but he will be a little rusty,
having not pitched competitively since early last summer. "I'm ready to get
started," Niemann said as he was handed Rays pitching coach Chuck Hernandez's
phone number and told to call. "I'm excited about being on a team again." The
Rays plan to get a good, close look at Niemann this spring and then have him
start either at high Class A Visalia or Double-A Montgomery. "He's in great
shape," LaMar said. "He just needs to get back that competitive edge." How long
it takes Niemann to work his way back to Tampa Bay depends on his progress. All
the ingredients are there, LaMar said." (MLB.com)
25 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Bobby Smith NRI OAK, 2-4, 2 homers, .571 ... Gary
Majewski WAS 2.0 1 0 0 0 3 ... Ruben Gotay KC 2-2, 2 walks,
double, homer
Baseball America is back on track with its Top 10 reports (after the usual
break for BA's college coverage). The Pirates' system is the latest
installment with lefty Zach Duke as the top dog. Catcher Neil
Walker is the runner-up, ahead of right-hander John Van Benschoten.
In the chatroom, John Perrotto's provided some comments :
" ... Duke is the closest thing to a stud but he's
not a lights-out, can't-miss, sure-thing No. 1 starter. Pardon all the hyphens.
I think he has a legitimate chance to be in the top 50 and Walker will probably
land in the top 75 ... Duke ... I highly doubt he will be in the Pirates'
starting rotation at the start of the season. I think, realistically, he either
starts the season back at Altoona or at Indianpolis with an eventual promotion
to the bigs in the second half of the year."
" ... Bobby Bradley took regular rotation
turns in the Arizona Fall League without any health problems, which is
encouraging. He's had a lot of arm problems but he also keeps battling back and
getting people out when he can pitch. I think Bradley can be a good No. 3-4
starter but he has to stay healthy."
" ... Freddy Sanchez got squeezed by the
depth in the Pirates' system and the fact that he really didn't play all that
well at Nashville once he recovered from his ankle surgery. I like Sanchez but
he may be in the wrong organization to get a starting job anytime soon. The
Pirates don't feel he has the power for third base and I agree. They also feel
Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo could be a long-term double-play combo."
Bryan Smith, WaitTilNextYear,
puts the crown on Delmon Young as baseball's top prospect. In his
last installment in WTNY's Top 75, the Rays' outfielder topped SEA phenom
Felix Hernandez, Andy Marte ATL, Adam Miller CLE and
Dallas McPherson ANA :
" ... there is no ceiling for Young’s
offensive potential. We have all heard the Albert Belle comparison, but in my
mind, Delmon is far the better player than Joey Belle was ... Young has
showed the knack to improve, despite already being a good player. His August
numbers:
AB BA SLG
W K
103 .437 .786 20 22
Most intriguing for me is not the average or the
power, both of which will come and go. But for a player that walked just once in
April to show that type of improvement is fantastic ... Unlike the walks,
the strikeouts aren’t going anywhere ... profiles to do so in excess of 100
times per season in the Major Leagues, a figure that would be offset by 80-100
walks. And even when Young was bad, he was not bad. His worst monthly average
was a modest .262 ... Overall, there are little flaws in Delmon’s resume. He has
confidence and a Major League pedigree. He makes consistent contact, and shows
ridiculous power. Toss in enough speed to be a threat and solid right field
play, and you’ve got baseball’s best prospect."
" ... Marte is as consistent as they come,
likely showing us what kind of player he profiles to be in the Majors. His
average will likely be around .280, and his slugging has a ceiling in the .500s.
The question in my mind, is what about his OBP ... Everyone cites Miguel Cabrera
as a comp to Marte, even John Scheurholz, but I don’t see it ... does not
have Miguel’s upside, which is not a fault on him, just me saying that I don’t
think the huge breakout season that has been predicted again and again will
happen ... The big question with Andy will be his position, now that
Scheurholz has committed to keeping Chipper at third ... I think you’ll
see Andy split time at the hot corner and left field this year. In 2006, you
should be seeing a Marte-Jones-Francoeur outfield. In conclusion, Marte is an
extremely great talent destined for many an All-Star game."
Bobby Lee, Oakland Clubhouse,
has an update of the A's Top 25. Nick Swisher continues atop the
heap :
" ... After a very disappointing second half in 2003
in Midland, Swisher was left with nothing to do in 2004 but dispel many
doubts about his ability -- and that’s exactly what he did this season after a
promotion to Sacramento. He's never going to be someone that hits for a high
batting average. His average actually peaked in his last game in Sacramento, as
he ended at a season high .269. Swisher will hit for a ton of power, though.
Being a switch hitter, he may have comparable power numbers to Lance Berkman.
With such a balance of power and patience, Swisher may post a .900 OPS as soon
as 2005 with the A's."
" ... 2 - Daric Barton ... was 18 all but one
month last season, but played like he was four years older. His numbers were
great, with an OPS of over .950, but the thing that makes Barton such an
advanced and impressive hitter is his K:BB ratio of 44:69 in 313 AB's. Barton
was catcher all of last season, but is likely to be moved to 1B at the start of
2005. That position change gives a hint of how fast the A's intend on moving
Barton up the ranks, as they're already moving him to a position that he can
actually play in Oakland in the near future. Barton actually posted similar
numbers to the ones Albert Pujols put up in the Midwest League -- except that
Pujols was two years older. So how is that for a comparison? Projected Location
to start 2005 – A-Stockton, with a ticket to move up quickly."
From Sports Weekly's prospect report on the A's :
" ... Brad Knox - RHP: Knox doesn't get as
much buzz as some of the other pitching prospects in the organization, but some
in the A's system think he was the steal of the 2002 draft (14th Round). Because
he's not overpowering, Knox's detractors find plenty of excuses to downgrade
him, such as saying he was slightly old to be dominating low-A in 2004. But he
has outstanding command and figures to make a slower, steadier climb than most."
Brad Dowdy, NoPepper, looks at
the catching prospects in the ATL system and, to no surprise, likes Brian
McCann as the best of the lot :
" ... The best offensive catcher in the Braves'
system... and it's not really even close. Ok, he could take a few more walks and
it's certainly possible that he won't stay behind the plate. But McCann's
isolated power was not only 26% better than the next best catcher, it was tied
for the 3rd-best in the entire system ... I'm still not sure what to make
of his defense. I've read conflicting reports which can easily happen since even
the experts only see players a few times a year. Here's what I'm going with for
now: catch-and-throw - good; game-calling - very good; overall movement and
agility - not that great. Which makes an eventual move to 1B even more likely."
Jarrod Saltalamacchia " ... He's
defensively sound - which is probably selling him a little short. He showed
decent power in his first full season with 35% of his hits going for extra bases
- bested only by McCann's 48% and Miguel Bernard's 41%. And to top it off, he's
a switch-hitter. He's already been compared to Javy Lopez and Jason Varitek,
although when looking at their first full years in pro baseball, he
out-performed them. One glaring similarity for all three is the large amount of
strikeouts that they posted this early in their careers."
24 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Miguel Cabrera FLO 1-2, homer ... Manny Aybar NYN
6.0 4 0 0 1 5 ... Eric Byrnes OAK 1-3, homer ... Jose
Lima KC 6.0 8 4 4 1 6 ... Jose Reyes NYN 4-5, homer
Bryan Smith, WaitTilNextYear,
has only the top five left for his final installment of his Top 75. A few
of the names in his most recent editions :
" ... 28. Dan Meyer ... Never has his
ERA been above 3.00, and once has it been below 2.70, in five stops. Most of the
time the ERA is in that range, though each time his peripherals have varied a
bit. After seeing a bull pen appearance of his in September, I really have
started to believe that he’s a rich man’s Mark Redman, throwing high-80s
fastballs in the same, effortless style. But Meyer has four pitches that he will
use at any time, has great control, and is smart enough on the mound to pile up
strikeouts. He and Joe Blanton are both going to be solid,
middle-of-the-rotation starters, simply giving the team 300+ solid innings on
the Harden-Zito days off."
" ... 21. Gavin Floyd ... The fact
that at full health, the Philadelphia Phillies will not have room for Gavin
Floyd in their rotation is a joke. It is a waste of resources to be spending
money on the likes of Cory Lidles and such, when Floyd is so ready for a spot
... The best idea now is to package Wolf and Ryan Howard together, land another
marquee player, and let Floyd be a starter. Throwing curveballs at his own pace
should help, as the Phillies employed the unique philosophy of setting limits on
how many times he threw the fantastic pitch in the minors. This allowed for the
further development of his fastball and third pitch, and also his confidence to
throw either in any count. Floyd should be another Rookie of the Year contender
next year, if given the opportunity."
" ... 16. Jeremy Hermida ...
2005 will sort of be his put up or shut up year, the season in which his agent
is telling him to “Show me the power.” Jeremy has a little bit of everything in
his repertoire, though his power has yet to really shine, and both his base
running and selectivity were down a bit this year. Hermida was hurt on and off
all year ... have to begin to wonder at this point whether or not leadoff will
be Hermida’s calling card, which given his bit of power, is a spot he could be
quite dangerous. Still, the Marlins would love to see Hermida blossom into
everything they thought he could be with the eleventh overall pick, which is a
five-tool player in the middle of their order ... I would be remiss not to note
that Miguel Cabrera posted extremely similar ISOs as Hermida has in his minor
league run, and as we know, really took off as a Carolina Mudcat. Now I’m not
comparing the two offensively, but I’m saying this should be Hermida’s breakout
season. If he can get the base running back to 2003 dorm, the Marlins will have
the five-tool talent they once thought they had."
" ... 9. Chad Billingsley ... Every time I
see Billingsley’s statistics, I am reminiscent of my favorite player in
baseball. Often times, the player I credit with my intense fandom in baseball.
In 1996, he was the rage of the Florida State League, with a 5.7 H/9, 10.7 K/9,
and an odd 5.5 W/9. His stuff was as good as it gets, with a huge fastball and
breaking pitch, along with the occasional solid third pitch. Billingsley,
similarly, posted a 6.7 H/9, 10/9 K/9 and 4.8 W/9 this year. His stuff is
similar to that of Kerry Wood, the player whom I am speaking of above. But
unlike Kerry, Chad moved up and dominated AA in the same season, and is set for
an appearance in Los Angeles some time this summer."
TB gets its man.
" ... The long wait is over for Tampa Bay Devil Rays
pitching prospect Jeff Niemann. The fourth pick in the draft last June,
Niemann agreed to terms Thursday on a major league contract worth $5.2 million
over five years, including a $3.2 million signing bonus. The 6-foot-9, 260-pound
right-hander ... eager to get started after spending the past seven months
working out in his hometown of Houston, trying to stay in shape. He said he
never doubted he'd wind up with the Devil Rays. "I knew things were going to
work out," Niemann said, adding that he never seriously considered returning to
Rice for his senior season and re-entering the draft. "It was just a matter of
time." Niemann went 28-4 with a 2.41 ERA in three seasons at Rice, including
17-0 to tie an NCAA Division I record and help the Owls win the College World
Series in 2003 ... "I'm in good shape. ... I feel awesome. I could step on
the mound and give 100 percent (today)," Niemann said. The 21-year-old said the
Devil Rays have not indicated where they'd like him to begin in the minors. And
he doesn't have a timetable in mind for reaching the majors." (Associated Press)
Dayn Perry, FoxSports, sees
an end to the ATL dynasty, but notes some prime talent ready to begin building
anew :
" ... I see nothing short of genuine greatness in
the future for Andy Marte, who's one of the three best prospects in the
game. Other Brave farmhands like Jeff Francoeur and Brian
McCann also have exceedingly bright futures. Few organizations are as
adept at identifying and developing young talent. This is a model organization
in almost every way, and they'll be back."
Good to see Brad Dowdy, NoPepper,
expanding his coverage as a new minor league columnist at
RotoJunkie (joining
one of our former correspondents Jason Collette). In his
first piece at RJ, Brad looks at the top young guns in the ATL system, including
catcher Brian McCann :
" ... opened some eyes with a solid 2003
season in Low-A Rome, but really blew up for the Pelicans in 2004. His OPS was
15% greater than league average, and his SEC of .291 was 18% greater. He was an
All-Star selection and was also named the top defensive catcher in the Carolina
League for 2004. Combine all of that with his age (20), position, handedness,
and offense suppressing ballpark, and McCann could be the long term answer
behind the plate in Atlanta in a few seasons, and a future roto stud."
RaysBaseball.com
has updated their Top 25 prospect list. Not a bad top three -- Delmon
Young, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann :
" ... Big and strong, Young possess strength and
great hand-eye coordination at the plate with a terrific arm in rightfield. He
got off to a decent start in '04 with the RiverDogs, but turned it up as the
summer went on. He is slated to start in AA, a challenge for the 19 year-old.
Future superstar."
" ... Kazmir made his debut in the Rays organization
in July, then made his ML debut a month later. He has an electric arm with a mid
to high 90's fastball. He complements that with a knee-bending slider that is
equally tough on RHB as it is on southpaws. He continues to work on a changeup.
He could start the season with Durham or with the Rays, either way he should be
in the rotation full-time by mid-season. Future superstar."
" ... Signed yesterday, Niemann is already the
second best starting pitching prospect. After an amazing sophomore season that
saw him post a 1.70 ERA, he had minor surgery and came back as a swing man. His
stuff includes a mid-90's fastball, a slider considered the best in the 2004
draft, and a spike curveball he used primarily last season."
John Sickels
ESPN.com on Mike Nickeas TEX :
" ... drafted ... in the fifth round last June
... In college, he was regarded as a very sound defensive catcher ...
defense alone makes him a prospect, but there were some questions in college
about his bat, which was erratic. However, he did very well in his first pro
exposure, hitting .288 with a .384 OBP and .494 SLG in 62 games for short-season
Spokane, contributing 10 homers and 18 doubles ... Many scouts believe
that Nickeas will have problems making contact against good pitching ...
If he keeps hitting, Nickeas could end up being a regular down the road. He
MIGHT end up as one of the best catching prospects in the game a year from now,
if he maintains the hitting. Although I am personally optimistic about his
chances, caution is warranted."
Wow ... Adam Miller CLE the centre of attention :
" ... High velocity from seemingly effortless motion
is one of many reasons Miller rates as the top prospect in the Indians' system
and, according to scouts and other talent evaluators, among the game's 20-25
best with no significant major-league experience ... "You hear about
guys throwing an easy 96, 97, 98," Indians catching prospect Ryan Garko said.
"That's Adam. He's scary." ... Garko first saw Miller pitch last spring.
At that point, Miller's four-seam fastball settled in the low-90s. The velocity
was similar to what he attained late in the short-season of 2003, his first in
pro ball. A power pitcher since high school, Miller figured he would continue to
throw in the low-90s during the 2004 season. However, as he dominated for the
lower-Class A Lake County Captains, his radar readings climbed into the mid-90s.
At the South Atlantic League All-Star Game, Miller had five pitches clocked at
98 to 100. Miller and his coaches now expect the fastball to settle in the
mid-90s."
" ... You'd expect a kid as young and as tall
as he is to maybe fight the mechanics, but that's not the case here," said an
National League scout who covers the Carolina League. "He's remarkably sound."
Innate ability helps, of course. Plenty of pitchers work extremely hard and
understand mechanics but fail to sniff 101 mph. A physical after last season
showed Miller's rotator cuff actually had gotten stronger, something Indians
General Manager Mark Shapiro described in Baseball America as "nothing short of
freakish." ... velocity alone has not made Miller an elite prospect. To succeed
in the majors, most starters employ at least a three-pitch mix. Miller
complements the fastball with a slider that Tribe brass has declared close to
major-league ready. His third pitch, the change-up, remains the wild card."
(Cleveland Plain Dealer)
Drew Williams,
TheCardinalNation, with a list of the key people to watch in the Cards'
system :
" ... Anthony Reyes’ Continuous
Development. The Cardinals top prospect will start the season in AAA Memphis,
waiting to get a crack at the majors. Reyes needs to stay healthy, and try to
perfect his already above average fastball, slider, and changeup. Reyes should
be a lot stronger than he was last year. He works out with Mark Prior in the off
season, who has a reputation for having a Clemens-like workout routine. Reyes is
expected to get the call in September, maybe earlier if injuries hit."
" ... 2. Adam Wainwright’s health. The
preseason top prospect for the Cardinals in 2004 battled a lot of injuries
throughout the ‘04 campaign. Though he recovered well enough to pitch for
Memphis in the last month of the season, the Cardinals decided to shut him down
until the Arizona Fall League. Wainwright appeared at the Cardinals Winter
Warmup anxious, and healthy. He is coming into camp wanting a spot in the '05
Cardinals rotation, not Memphis. Though unlikely to make the big club, it is
important for Wainwright to stay healthy at Memphis until he gets a shot in
September or later. Another injury riddled season may mean a change to closer if
he can’t start."
21/22/23 January, 2005
Busy weekend ahead on the home front & with work to be done on my Scoresheet leagues ...
so taking a short break ... lots below to keep you busy for the weekend ...
updates to the Top 10s,
Top 100s,
Crossovers, NRIs,
Prospects by position.
Winter ball ... still hoping for a ST invite, Fernando Campos 6.0 4 2 2 4
6 ... Bill Pulsipher 6.1 6 3 3 2 5 ... Gary Majewski
WAS 2.1 0 0 0 1 3 ... Miguel Cabrera FLO looks ready, 2-3, 2
walks, 2 homers, 7 RBI ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-5 ...
Miguel Tejada BAL 3-4, homer, 3 RBI
Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld.com, kicks off his Top 10s with a look at the
best of the young guns in the AL East. Among his choices :
BAL #1 Nick Markakis " ... the
seventh overall pick in the 2003 draft. Many teams preferred him as a
left-handed pitcher, but the Orioles see him as a future regular in right field.
While he lacks the power potential to become a superstar, he could be a
.290/.370/.500 hitter in his prime, making him a borderline All-Star.
Defensively, he has the range and arm to be exceptional in right. He’ll spend
2005 at Single-A Frederick."
BOS #2 Dustin Pedroia " ... In
no small part because he stands just 5-foot-8, Pedroia slipped late into the
second round of the 2004 draft following an outstanding career at Arizona State.
The Red Sox apparently were in the minority thinking he could be a big-league
regular, probably at second base. They’re hoping Pedroia is the player David
Eckstein would have been if he walked in the majors like he did while he was in
the minors."
NYA #! Eric Duncan " ... remains
part of the Yankee organization for now, but that’s probably temporary. He’s the
team’s best piece of trade bait and another veteran will be needed sooner or
later. Duncan’s bat is legit. He hasn’t hit for average yet, but an 828 OPS in
the Florida State League is a very impressive figure for a 19-year-old. Since he
lacks range at third base, he’s likely to make the trip across the infield
before he reaches the majors. He should hit enough to be a quality first
baseman."
TB #3 Jeff Niemann " ...
the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft, has yet to sign, but he’s expected to
get a major league contract soon. The Rays think the Rice product will move
quickly, probably reaching the majors during 2006. Niemann throws in the mid-90s
and has a terrific slider. If his velocity hadn’t been down last season -- the
result of a groin injury -- it’s unlikely he would have remained on the board
for Tampa Bay. He has as much upside as any pitcher taken in the draft."
TOR #4 Aaron Hill " ...
could be only a year away from pushing his way into Toronto’s lineup. His
numbers have been less than stellar so far, but he’s still expected to add
power, and once that happens, he’ll be a complete offensive player. It’s finding
a position for him that could be difficult. With Eric Hinske’s stock fading, it
had begun to appear that Hill was Toronto’s third baseman of the future. The
Corey Koskie signing changed that. Unless Orlando Hudson has a breakout year, he
might be moved to open up second base for Hill in 2006. However, I think Hudson
is on his way to establishing himself as a very good regular. Hill lacks the
range to be an above average shortstop, but he could spend a couple of years
there, depending on what happens with Russ Adams.
Dayn Perry, FoxSports, has another
edition in his Top 100 (71-80) with a Reds' first base candidate among the
selections :
" ... 71. Dustin McGowan ... Before undergoing Tommy John surgery last May, McGowan was the top pitching
prospect in the Blue Jays' system. When he's healthy, McGowan throws a mid-90s
fastball with life, power curve and power slider. His change still needs work,
but this time last year, he was well on his way to becoming of the ten best
prospects in the game. Pitchers coming off reconstructive elbow surgery aren't
the unknown quantities they once were, but a conservative ranking is still
warranted."
" ... 73. Adrian Gonzalez ... Rangers enjoy likening Gonzalez to Rafael Palmeiro because of his picturesque
left-handed stroke, but that's probably a major stretch. His power numbers have
been remarkably inconsistent and never outstanding — which isn't what you want
from a first baseman. His walk rates aren't optimum, and he's a painfully slow
runner. Still, he's an excellent defender with soft hands and good instincts.
The question is whether his line drive swing will develop the loft it needs for
him to put up adequate power numbers. He's generally overvalued."
" ... 79. Joey Votto ... Reds
think Votto is a future "heart of the order" hitter in Cincinnati, and they may
be right. He has a quick, powerful swing with good loft, and he knows the strike
zone. In 1,305 plate appearances as a pro, he's drawn 201 walks, which is what
you want from a young hitter. You'd like to see a bit more raw power from him,
but his mechanics, athleticism and body type suggest that's going to come in a
hurry. Expect big things from him in 2005, and expect him to be much higher on
this list in 2006."
Bryan Smith, WaitTilNextYear,
is also working from the bottom up in presenting his Top 75. A pair of ATL
kids and a SEA hope are included in the latest update :
" ... 42. Brian McCann ... unique prospect. First of all, he’s a left-handed catcher, of
which there was one regular last season (Pierzynski). Second, he shows a lot of
power from the left side, which is about as rare as you can find in catchers. I
really like McCann, who might be able to supplant Johnny Estrada in 2006 or
2007 ... When fully developed, McCann should have great
power ... average will
likely never hit .300, but he should maintain above the league average for much
of his career."
" ... 38. Shin-Soo Choo ... The tool I’m most worried about in Choo’s bag-o-skills is
power, as his slugging conveniently rose in the hitter lover’s Texas League,
with a little help from his friend the triple. Safeco tends to hurt those type
of players, though I think it’s safe to say that in the very least, Choo
undoubtedly possesses “gap power.” Anyway, the rest of the tools are securely in
place, though Choo still remains a little behind Jeremy Reed on the depth chart.
That should change this year, and Choo could get an opportunity to make what I
think would be the first two-player, Asian-born outfield in history."
" ... 36. Kyle Davies ... was sensational this year, posting great peripherals in both the
Carolina and Southern Leagues. For some reason I didn’t notice Davies’
accomplishments like I had other Braves’ prospects, probably because someone was
always doing something better than Kyle, who was simply consistently good all
season. Davies is well-liked by the types (Scheurholz, Mazzone) that you want to
be favored by, and has even been mentioned as a possible fifth starter by the
Braves’ GM himself. He won’t land the job out of Spring Training, but should
Horacio Ramirez suffer any setbacks, Davies is now next in line."
SportsBlurb.com has not only been
churning out the Top 10s (along with a diverse range of other sports news and
opinion) but working on The SportsBlurb.com Fantasy Baseball Sourcebook
2005. It's expected to hit the newsstands around the middle of
February. Included in the publication is a nice roundup of the top
prospects by position. A sample :
" ... Ryan Garko has switched between
catcher and first base and broke out with the bat last season. The 24-year-old
hit over .300 in three different levels with 22 homers on the year. Indians fans
and fantasy owners alike have eyes as big as the next great power hitter at
first base. ETA: 2005."
" ... Ian Kinsler, TEX: Coming out of
nowhere (or Mizzou to be more specific), Kinsler established himself as one of
the better shortstop prospects in the minors last season. The 17th round pick
from the 2003 draft went Ted Williams in Low-A, hitting above .400 with some
speed and steals before his call-up to Double-A. There he hit a tad below .300
with continued pop and speed. Most scouts see his breakout as legit and he could
be pushing Michael Young back to his original position in Texas soon. ETA:
2005."
" ... Michael Bourn, PHI: He has only
been in the low minors but Bourn has such great leadoff skills that fantasy
owners must take notice. He hit above .300 in Low-A last season with a 90%
stolen base success rate and a BB/K ratio of nearly 1/1. The 22-year-old could
develop into a top base-stealer if he continues to hit as he moves up the minor
league ladder. ETA: 2007."
" ... Chad Billingsley, LA:
Billingsley currently stands atop an organization with tremendous pitching
prospect depth. The 2003 first round pick dominated High-A and Double-A while
turning 20 at the end of July. He already has three plus major league pitches
and still has time to increase his velocity from the mid-90s. The Dodgers are in
no rush to see him reach the majors, especially with walk problems. Still, he
has the ability to be an ace when he arrives. ETA: 2006."
Jim Callis, Baseball America,
on a future home for Joel Guzman LA :
" ... Most clubs won't move a player to a less
challenging position until he proves he can't handle the one he's currently at,
and that's the case with the Dodgers and Guzman. Already 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds
and still filling out, Guzman probably won't be able to stick at shortstop for
the long term. But he does have a plus-plus arm and surprisingly smooth actions,
and he currently grades out as an average to above-average defender at short.
Los Angeles plans on keeping him there this year in Double-A. A lot of scouts
think that with his size and power, Guzman profiles best as a right fielder in
the mold of a young Juan Gonzalez. He should be able to handle first base or
third base, but the Dodgers have James Loney and Andy LaRoche coming along at
those positions. It's very possible that Guzman could break into the majors as a
third baseman, then move to the outfield once LaRoche is ready to take over at
the hot corner. Regardless of where he plays, Guzman's bat should make him a
star."
Loads of talent ... lots of troubles. TB outfield prospect in more hot
water :
" ... Elijah Dukes was arrested
early Tuesday on a first-degree misdemeanor charge of battery (domestic
violence). Dukes is to remain in jail until this morning, when he is expected to
have bail set by a Hillsborough County judge. According to police, Dukes was
having an argument with his sister then grabbed her by the throat and punched
her in the left arm. It was the third time Dukes, a Tampa resident, has been
arrested in the past 13 months, though a December 2003 misdemeanor assault
charge was dropped. He has also been arrested as a juvenile. Rays spokesman Rick
Vaughn said the team had no comment. Despite missing time last season to attend
anger management classes, Dukes hit a combined .312 with 10 homers and 49 RBIs
in 101 games at Class A Charleston (S.C.) and Bakersfield and was ranked the
team's seventh-best prospect by Baseball America." (St. Petersburg Times)
19/20 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Fernando Nieve HOU 5.0 5 3 2 2 7 ... Juan Rivera ANA 3-5 & 0-3
... Jose Lopez SEA 1-4, homer & 3-5 ... Miguel Cabrera FLO 3-3 ...
Bobby Abreu
PHI 1-3, homer ...
The guys over at SportsBlurb.com have
put the wraps on their Top 10 reports with Seth Trachtman's look at the
Giants' farm (not sure if Seth or Mark Allen Haverty have had any
shut-eye in the past few weeks as SportsBlurb has also been working on the
publication of their 2005 Fantasy Baseball Sourcebook). The
magazine is expected to be available around the 15th of February.
In the SF system, it's Matt Cain at the top
(with outfield prospect Fred Lewis the first position player, at No. 4) :
" ... . Cain ... arguably the best pitching prospect
other than Mariners farmhand Felix Hernandez. Cain throws in the mid-90s with a
great repertoire, good control and a great track record. The 20-year-old had an
ERA below 2.00 in High-A last season before being called up to Double-A and
posting a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts. That higher ERA was due to a slight control
breakdown, with 40 walks in 86 innings. He still had a good strikeout rate at
both levels, and his performance per level is outstanding. The Giants might use
him in the majors for a playoff run next season."
" ... Lewis is one of the top leadoff
prospects in the game. The 24-year-old has outstanding leadoff skills, drawing
89 walks and hitting above .300 last season in High-A for most of the year. He
also has some pop, with nine homers last season and 40 extra base hits in total.
While he could use some base stealing refinement, that should not prevent him
from becoming a major league leadoff man. Look for him in the Giants Opening Day
lineup in 2006."
Bryan Smith, Wait Til Next Year,
is moving right along with his Top 75 -- posting # 46-60. I'd be pretty
happy with some of the guys in this group :
" ... 52. Brandon McCarthy ... Statistically
speaking, there is very little reason to doubt McCarthy after his three level
rise, and his dozens and dozens of strikeouts. I guess I could nitpick that his
control worsened beyond previous levels, that his AA performance seemed to be a
bit more “McCarthy on fire” than his true talents, and that he really wasn’t
even that good in the South Atlantic League. But again, that would be
nitpicking, since McCarthy has always struck so many out, saw his HR/9 drop in
both the Carolina and Southern Leagues, and still has some of the best K/BB
numbers in recent memory. Jon Garland could probably call this season his “do or
die” year, because if he falters, he now will have someone waiting for his job."
" ... 50. Jason Kubel ... Playing in
the AFL to convince the Twins that he, not Jacque Jones, deserved the right
field spot, Kubel tore up his knee. “Tore up” is a loose expression for saying
he tore everything, his ACL, MCL, cartilage…everything. His 2005 season, which
was slowly gaining so many expectations, will now have zeroes in every column.
His future in the Metrodome outfield is forever in doubt, as he may be resigned
to taking the Designated Hitter job when he’s ready."
" ... 47. Val Majewski ...
Looking at Val’s resume after this season, I’m both depressed that I didn’t see
him coming earlier, and excited about the prospects of what his career could be.
He has not had extended failure once, dating back to his two fantastic 1.000+
OPS seasons at Rutgers, and including stops in the NYPL, Sally, Carolina and
Eastern Leagues. It looks like he’s going to be a .300 hitter, with a good
amount of power, and some varying OBPs ... was hurt while making a
September call-up, so they’ll send him to AAA to make sure he’s fine, before
firmly supplanting him into their everyday lineup."
John Sickels,
ESPN.com, on Tim Stauffer SD :
" ... Stauffer demonstrates excellent command of all
his pitches. Scouts praise his instincts and work ethic ... If he
maintains sharp command, his stuff is certainly good enough for him to succeed
without a blazing fastball ... dominated the California League in six starts
last year before being promoted to Double-A. Although his 2.63 ERA in eight
starts for Mobile was sharp, his K/IP and H/IP marks deteriorated. This was a
warning that he might struggle if pushed to Triple-A, but instead he held his
own after moving up to Portland. Still, his K/IP and H/IP marks in Triple-A were
not impressive, especially the K/IP, and the sharp spike in his home run rate
was another warning sign ... could use another 10-15 starts in Triple-A.
While he doesn't have to turn into a strikeout artist, improving his ability to
dominate the game will increase his margin for error ... ability to throw
strikes, mix his pitches, and stay ahead of hitters is exciting. If he can avoid
further arm problems, he projects as a solid No. 3 starter."
John's 2005 Baseball Prospect Book
is scheduled to ship around the first of February. Order through
Johnsickels.com
Ah, another one bites the dust (temporarily we hope). Spring Training
Magazine won't be published this season. No explanation given. Thanks to
Denis Chabot for the heads-up.
Dave Farr is back to help out with the list of the
NRIs (non-roster invitees). Some of
these don't seem to get noted in any place other than the local papers, so it's
a tough task to track them down. Our list updated with the latest signings
(along with the Crossovers,
Top 10s, Top
100s, 40-man rosters). This
might be the last update of the 40-man, before we switch over to the chase for
25-man roster spots.
Texas notes from
Jamey Newberg :
" ... Clarifying a few things Showalter told us at
Saturday's Newberg Report event, after I'd alluded to many of them in Sunday's
report: (1) If Sandy Alomar catches more than 50 games this season, something
will have gone terribly wrong, Showalter said; (2) it would be suicide to go
into the season having only two catchers with significant big league experience;
(3) Ian Kinsler has a chance to compete for a backup role this spring,
but the club is mindful of the difficult transition from AA to the major
leagues, as demonstrated by Laynce Nix's uneven rookie season; (4) the new role
Texas envisions for Ramon Nivar is as a supersub, along Chone Figgins
lines (although Showalter didn't offer that particular comparison himself); and
(5) Chan Ho Park "won't pitch poorly in the big leagues if he's healthy."
Melissa Lockard, Oakland
Clubhouse, on Nick Swisher :
" ... It has been widely speculated that rookie
outfielder Nick Swisher will get the first crack at replacing Dye in rightfield.
The switch-hitting power hitter made his debut with Oakland in September of last
season and impressed a lot of people with his power, patience at the plate and
his hard-nosed style of play. Swisher, who hit a combined 31 HR between AAA and
the major leagues last season and posted a .406 OBP in AAA and .352 OBP in the
majors, could very well match Dye’s 23 homeruns and should post a better on-base
percentage than Dye’s .329 mark from last season. Swisher is coming off of
surgery on his thumb, but is expected to be 100% by the start of spring
training. Swisher is not Dye’s equal in the field, but he should be able to hold
his own with the glove. A centerfielder in the minor leagues, Swisher has
above-average range for a corner outfielder. His throwing arm is average and he
may eventually be better suited for leftfield. In any case, he should make
almost all of the routine plays and a few spectacular plays. If Swisher plays
every day, he should have a good chance of being the A’s second consecutive
Rookie of the Year."
Baseball
Prospectus is working on a Top 50 (to be announced next month) and offers a
few hints in its team-by-team looks :
" ... Guillermo Quiroz ... had all the
luster and sheen of a top catching prospect, and a nagging hand injury derailed
his season ... still projects quite well, albeit in limited playing time.
His catching skills are still well regarded; if he continues to build on those
and his peripheral batting skills, he won't have to hit for a high average to be
valuable. If he does, it'll be gravy. Expect Quiroz to be middle to back of the
pack in our Top 50 Prospects list. If he returns healthy and continues to
develop, he'll be far more valuable than that."
" ... Delmon Young ... didn't put up
Bondsian numbers. He's still got a ways to go to get to the majors. That's the
downside. He was 18. There wasn't much he didn't do well. Hit for average, hit
for power, drew some walks and stole some bases. Young has "hitter" written all
over him, and he's likely to get better."
" ... Jeff Francoeur ... has
always been highly regarded in terms of his physical prowess and abilities on
the field; the key is translating that to performance. It's started to come, but
it's not quite there yet. He'll be 21 this season, so he has time to develop.
Francoeur must improve the plate discipline ... Expect Francoeur to wind up
around the middle of the pack in the Top 50."
" ... Andy Marte ... he didn't
destroy Double-A pitching the way Miguel Cabrera did in 2003. Very few people
will do that, so it shouldn't take any shine off his star. He's all of 21 years
young, defensive reports on his work at third base are good and he more than
held his own at Double-A ... The usual caveats for young players apply;
that said, there's really not any reason not to like Marte. Rookie of the Year,
anyone?"
A glimmer of hope for Jose Lopez SEA :
" ... Bret Boone has to rebound from last year. It's
unreasonable to expect him to return to his peak form given that he's 36, though
... Even if his bat doesn't come around, he's been a good fielder almost
all his career. We should see that return. If it doesn't, we may see the return
of Jose Lopez. We saw Lopez at short last season. He may start this year in
Tacoma making the transition to second, which is better suited to his skills.
Depending on how well he does and how (or if) Boone rebounds, we could see that
switch made earlier than 2006. Lopez is going to be a good player. Boone's
likely departure when his contract runs out this year creates a well-timed
opening for the promising youngster." (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)
Rays still hoping to wrap a deal with their top pick within the week :
" ... LaMar said the next two or three days are
"important" to getting a deal done with pitcher and top draft choice Jeff
Niemann. "After our conversations (Monday)," Lamar said, "I believe that in
the next two or three days, hopefully, we'll get something done." (St.
Petersburg Times)
18 January, 2005
Winter ball ... vets key in the playoffs ... Jose Offerman 4-5 ...
Alexis Gomez 2-3, 2 RBI ... Juan Cruz OAK 0.1 3 3 3 0 1
... Joel Guzman LA 2-3 ... Jose Reyes NYN 3-5, homer
... Bartolo Colon ANA 3.0 3 0 0 1 1
The Scoresheet Combined List revised ... to show all the players in LastName,
FirstName format.
Bryan Smith, Wait Til Next Year,
continues with his Top 75 for 2005, listing the bottom group (61-75) which
includes a likely MLB second baseman for '05 and a pair of SP sleepers :
" ... 62. Chris Burke ... Showing
unique confidence that they didn’t in Jason Lane, Astro upper management didn’t
even take a shot at re-signing Jeff Kent, seemingly giving the job to Burke.
Then reports out of Houston came the team was thinking about moving Craig Biggio
back to second, which would be an offensive disaster given how far Biggio has
declined, and just how good Burke has become. His PCL slugging percentage will
probably not be matched in the Majors, but I view Chris being a premiere
two-hole hitter, always contributing a solid average with a bunch of doubles.
His stolen base ability is also quite sound, so expect Phil Garner to run him
wild if he gets a chance next year."
" ... 68. Hayden Penn ... Not the
average teenager, it was Penn’s poise and control that took him from the South
Atlantic League to Bowie at nineteen. His numbers won’t amaze you and his
strikeout numbers are far from dazzling. Hayden’s K/BB was 3.0 in the Carolina
League, and he’ll need that type of ratio to justify under nine strikeouts per
game. But he’ll be back in the Eastern League next year at twenty, with the
chance of breaking the Major League rotation when he proves himself ready.
Baltimore hardly offers a lot of barriers, and the fact that Penn jumped so many
prospects to be the top Oriole pitcher is saying something. And even if he
labors a bit next year, I think it’s safe to say he has time to figure it out."
" ... 71. Anthony Reyes ... For no
other reason than great control, drafting Reyes in the fifteenth round of the
2003 draft was a great move by the St. Louis Cardinals. Anthony had never been
inspiring at USC: his career ERA finished at 3.89, his H/9 was never below nine,
his K/9 never above. This is why Reyes exploding on the scene is so surprising.
Sure he was never completely healthy in his last two years at USC, but in twelve
AA starts to close out the year, his H/9 was 7.5 and K/9 was 12.4. The fact that
his BB/9 dropped below 2.0 shouldn’t be shocking, as that was always his calling
card on the West Coast. Everything in me says that Reyes will fall apart, that
his ceiling is no higher than that of a fourth starter, that the Southern League
helped him like it did Brad Thompson to begin the year. But wouldn’t I be an
idiot if I left one of AA’s best second-half pitchers off my list?"
Bryan had picked LA lefty Mike Megrew
for the Top 75, but says he's learned Megrew has had Tommy John surgery since
the end of the 2004 season.
Ken Rosenthal, The Sporting
News, reports on the position switch for Daric Barton and a sleeper in HOU :
" ... The A's, deep in young catchers, are moving
Class A catcher Daric Barton to first base with the idea of keeping his
bat in the lineup for 150 games per season instead of 120. Barton, one of three
players the team acquired from the Cardinals for LHP Mark Mulder, had a .956 OPS
at Class A Peoria--three points higher than Albert Pujols posted at the same
level. Barton doesn't turn 20 until August 16."
" ... The Mariners want upper-level prospects,
including a pitcher, for OF Randy Winn. The Astros won't part with Class AA RHP
Ezequiel Astacio, one of the pitchers they acquired in the Billy Wagner
trade. Astacio, who has become close to untouchable, could make the team out of
spring training."
The Pirates -- one young gun with a chance to jump to the majors, another likely
headed for the DL :
" ... The greatest uncertainty appears to surround
right-hander John Van Benschoten, who had offseason surgery on his
non-throwing shoulder. Although Van Benschoten expresses optimism that he will
be ready for the start of spring training, team officials do not come close to
doing likewise. "It is up in the air," McClendon said. "We're resigned to the
fact that he's definitely going to be behind."
" ... Another strong suggestion that the Pirates
want to give left-hander Zach Duke, their minor-league pitcher of
the year in 2004, a chance to win the fifth starter's job: When McClendon was
asked by a reporter if that job might be open to a young prospect, he smiled and
replied, "Yeah, I know where you're coming from. Without naming names, no, we're
not ruling anybody out." Duke, 21, has not pitched above Class AA." (Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette)
17 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Tony Armas WAS 3.1 4 4 4 4 6 ... Bobby
Abreu PHI, seems ready for opening day, 2-2, double, homer, 3 walks & 3-4, 2
homers, 4 RBI ...
Miguel Cabrera FLO 2-2, homer, 2 walks, 3 RBI ... Jose Lopez SEA 1-4,
homer ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-5, HBP ... vet Doug
Linton 8 1 1 0 4 5
... Jose Lima KC 4.1 8 4 1 2 3
Elizardo Ramirez making an impression with his new club, CIN :
" ... . Ramirez, a 22-year-old right-hander, was
obtained from Philadelphia in the Cory Lidle trade. He was 1-0 with a 3.19 ERA
in five starts at Double-A Chattanooga after the trade. "Our major-league people
have never seen him," O'Brien said. "We want to give him a look-see." Ramirez
would be considered a long shot. But the Phillies thought enough of him to bring
him up to the big leagues last year. He pitched in eight games and went 0-0 with
a 4.80 ERA. His minor-league numbers - 43-19, 2.71 ERA - are impressive."
(Cincinnati Enquirer)
Padres happy with post-season progress of CF Freddy Guzman :
" ... Guzman made great strides this winter while
playing in his native Dominican Republic. Guzman hit .319 over 30 games for
Estrellas Del Oriente in their regular season. He was also a perfect 22-for-22
in stolen-base attempts and posted a .425 on-base percentage ... The heir
apparent to the center-field position with the Padres last August, Guzman
struggled to find his stroke. But his positive results this winter are
encouraging to the organization. "It was good to see Freddy produce this winter
after the way he played [there] last year," Waller [director of player
development Tye Waller] said. "There are a lot of good ballplayers in that
league and this has been good for him." (MLB.com)
David
Luciani, Baseball Notebook Newsletter, on Jason Dubois CHN :
" ... I'm projecting Dubois to hit 22 home runs in
337 at bats and that could even go up if the Cubs somehow moved Sammy Sosa. He
also made my "players of interest" column at the site last week. As for why he
didn't make the top prospect list, he's too old to have the same sort of career
I'm projecting for these others and in fact, he was at the highest possible end
even for consideration, turning twenty-six this March. I also don't think he has
the staying power of a true top prospect but I could see five or six solid power
years out of him before he disappears. In at least a few cases, his single-best
season may very well be more exciting to you than some of these top prospects'
best seasons, though I still think they'll have the better, more productive
career."
MIL with a sleeper on the horizon :
" ... LHP Jorge De La Rosa has turned heads
in the Mexican League and will be an arm to watch in camp. He is out of minor
league options, so the Brewers need to find him a roster spot. De La Rosa could
settle in the bullpen. He throws a mid-90s fastball and is learning to control
his offspeed stuff, which makes him a candidate to be the team's first
lefthanded reliever in two years." (The Sporting News)
From The Braves Beat, views on a pair of former Braves :
Juan Cruz " ... Braves fans all
over the country were becoming increasingly frustrated by the non-use of Juan by
Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone. He’s a young pitcher who is overflowing with
potential and the feeling was that all he needed was plenty of work. It was
around mid-season when Cruz began to be utilized a lot more and he came through.
Dealing him had more to do with what we were getting in return, than any
reflection on Juan’s future."
Dan Meyer " ... Our top
left-handed pitching prospect is a pitcher with huge value and the key player
sent away in our huge deal with the A’s. He was perfect to build a package
around in an attempt to acquire someone already a star. Danny might come back
and bite us in the rear someday but we can’t look back because of whom we
received in return."
A's OF Eric Byrnes, playing in the Dominican Winter
League offers an opinion on one of the OAK acquisitions :
" ... And as excited as Byrnes is about the everyday
players on Licey's roster, he's even more excited about one of the pitchers. He
reports that Juan Cruz, a right-handed reliever who came to the A's from the
Braves as part of the Tim Hudson trade, has been blowing people away. "The guy's
incredible," said Byrnes. "He's throwing 98 miles an hour, and he's just filthy.
I swear, he's one of the most impressive guys I've seen down here. He's going to
be a huge part of our team next year." (MLB.com)
CC surely the big man on campus for the Indians ... once highly-rated
Jeremy Guthrie now an after-thought:
" ... By all appearances, the stock of Indians
pitching prospect Jeremy Guthrie -- the team's 2002 first-round
pick -- has fallen pretty far, pretty quick. Though he did a respectable job in
six big-league appearances last season, Guthrie has virtually no chance to make
this year's Indians pitching staff. And while Guthrie is just 25 years old,
Indians officials rarely mention the righty when naming their top prospects.
(Without being prompted, anyway.) But while Indians General Manager Mark
Shapiro admits Guthrie's progress has been slower than expected, he insists the
pitcher remains a factor in the team's future plans. (Cleveland Plain Dealer)
CC Sabathia " ... Whenever Sabathia
allowed a hit or walked a batter, his weight became an issue -- as it had
periodically while he went 17-5 as a rookie in 2001, 13-11 in 2002 and 13-9 in
2003. Listed at 290 in the 2004 media guide, Sabathia realizes that a 20-1
record might not be good enough to satisfy the calorie-counters. Sabathia
certainly did not appear to have weight concerns as he moved through the
clubhouse Thursday. A source in the Indians' front office said Sabathia is in
the best shape, by far, of his pro career. "No matter what I look like, my
weight always is going to be an issue with people," he said. "It doesn't bother
me, though. I know my body. I know what I need to do." (Cleveland Plain Dealer)
Big bat, not yet a place to play :
Chris Shelton " ... He goes to
Toledo, mashes the ball until the Tigers need another hitter (figure on sometime
during June), then works himself into a long-term role as a designated hitter or
spot starter in the infield. Shelton does one thing well: hit." (Detroit News)
|
