Rookies 2005

                                                                                                                           Pitching Line = IP H R ER BB SO
 

10-11 December,  2005   

    Dominican - Joel Guzman LAD, in a slump, 0-4, .276 ... Esteban German KC 2-4, double, .354 ... Wily Mo Pena CIN 2-4, double, .412 ... Mike Napoli LAA 2-4, 5th homer, .370 ...  Erick Aybar LAA 5-5, double, 11th SB, .321 ... some hitting stats of note in Venezuela and Mexico :

Venezuela            JJ  VB H2 H3 HR CI BB SO  AVE  OBP  SLG
Scott Luke           20  69  5  1  8 19 12 21 .391 .488 .841
Martinez Victor       7  21  2  0  0  7  6  1 .381 .519 .476
Owens Jerry          42 167  8  3  1 19 21 20 .365 .440 .467
Cede¥O Ronny         27 104  6  1  0 13  5 14 .356 .389 .433
Orr Pete             33 133  7  1  0 18 13 21 .353 .412 .421
De Caster Yurendell  43 151  6  1 15 37 25 42 .344 .438 .695
Restovich Michael    44 161 14  2  7 34 25 37 .342 .440 .584
Callaspo Alberto     43 154  6  2  3 20 20  8 .331 .408 .455
Gutierrez Franklin   32 115  5  0  3 19 20 21 .330 .442 .452
Bergolla William     37 156  5  1  1 17  9 16 .301 .337 .365
Torrealba Yorvit     20  60  2  0  0  2  8 11 .300 .394 .333
Young Walter         33 129  6  0  3 20  9 20 .295 .359 .411
Montero Miguel       36 114  9  0  4 14 17 16 .289 .382 .474
Bohn T.J.            44 158 10  0  1 29 23 46 .272 .366 .354
Izturis Maicer       16  55  2  0  1  5  8  5 .236 .344 .327
Escobar Alex          6  13  0  0  1  1  1  2 .231 .286 .462
Cabrera Asdrubal     13  32  2  0  0  1  6  6 .219 .342 .281
Quiroz Guillermo     13  45  1  0  0  3  3 15 .178 .302 .200
Mexico                G  AB 2B 3B HR BI BB SO  AVE  OBP  SLG
Clark Howie,2B       46 171  6  3  9 30 24 14 .333 .419 .561
Clark Douglas,OF     45 159 12  1  8 33 22 38 .333 .421 .572
Francisco Ben,OF     42 172  7  0 12 27 10 34 .320 .368 .570
Pickering Calvin,1B  50 160  4  0 13 31 45 53 .306 .462 .575
Gonzalez Adrian,1B   49 187 14  1  7 32 22 40 .299 .374 .497
Rivera Ruben,OF      50 165  4  0 14 33 37 35 .291 .442 .570
Amezaga Alfredo,SS   48 183  8  2  3 22 19 28 .279 .348 .393
Gomes Jonny,OF       15  52  1  0  3  5 15 21 .269 .449 .462
Doster Dave,3B       42 159  7  0  3 11 11 19 .258 .316 .358
Linden Todd,OF       20  70  2  0  1  9 13 19 .200 .333 .271

    Troop movements ... ATL - signed catcher Todd Pratt ...  LAA - traded Alexi Casilla to MIN  for JC Romero ... confirmed, NYN sends Dante Brinkley and Gaby Hernandez to FLO for Paul Lo Duca ... LAA - Josh Paul designated for assignment ... OAK - Jason Perry outright to AAA ... NYN - signed Julio Franco ... SD - sold contract of Chris Oxspring to the Hanshin Tigers (Japan), claimed Pete LaForest off waivers from TB ...

    Ian Kinsler, 2B TEX?  Josh Barfield, 2B, SD?  Maybe.

" ... "We're going to give Ian Kinsler an opportunity to compete for the job," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "I think he has earned it and deserves it. That doesn't preclude us from bringing in others to compete with him and others that are already on the roster." (MiLB.com)

" ... Padres General Manager Kevin Towers ... said he's eager to see what Bobby Hill and rookie Josh Barfield can do in Loretta's stead. "We wanted to get a little bit younger if we can, and they're going to get a chance," he said."

    Not bare, but getting there - the Cards' prospect cupboard.  John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, reviews his 2005 pre-season STL Top 20 :

" ...  1) Anthony Reyes ...  7-6, 3.64 in 23 starts for Triple-A Memphis, 136/34 K/BB in 129 innings. Looked good in 13 innings for the Cardinals. It all boils down to health with this one. He will be a fine, fine pitcher, if his arm doesn't disintegrate like Daffy Duck's pistol on planet X."

" ... 2) Chris Lambert ... Crushed at Double-A Springfield: 6.35 ERA in 18 starts, 69/48 K/BB in 85 innings, 97 hits allowed. He throws hard, but his command is unreliable and he doesn't change speeds well. Conversion to relief should be considered."

" ... 4) Brad Thompson ... 2.95 ERA in 55 innings out of the Cardinals bullpen, very nice rookie season. Good control, but below average strikeout rate is a caution flag for the future."

    In his 'building for the long run" series at RotoWorld, Aaron Gleeman ranks the guys-to-get among the moundsmen.  Just one youngster in the first installment, the Top 10 (Johan Santana No. 1) :

" ... 2) Felix Hernandez ...  the last pitcher who was this good this young was probably Dwight Gooden. Hernandez came into this season as the best pitching prospect in baseball, elevated himself to the best prospect, period, and then took MLB by storm in the second half. Despite being just 19 years old, King Felix posted a 2.67 ERA in 12 starts with the Mariners, striking out 77 batters in 84.1 innings while walking just 23 and allowing a measly 61 hits. It’s not often that you find someone who can induce tons of ground balls while also being a strikeout pitcher, but even at such a young age Hernandez has perhaps baseball’s best mix of those skills. Barring serious injury, he’s destined for rarified greatness."

    More catchup from Tim Polko, Rotohelp.com, moves on to preview the kids in the NL :

Rich Hill, CHN  " ...  took advantage of younger competition in the low minors to gain confidence in his dominant stuff, surging through the system ... and emerging as the best rookie pitcher in the organization. He appears untouchable right now and could compete for a starting job next spring, a reasonable expectation given his outstanding skills at both West Tenn and Iowa. Yes, he struggled in Chicago in a variety of roles. Hill also turns 26 in March, making him older than Cubs' veterans Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano. However, any southpaw with these strikeout and command rates should enjoy a long career, so feel free to risk a few bucks on Hill even if he seems headed for a season of middle relief."

Angel Guzman, CHN  " ...  Anything he provides the Cubs or fantasy owners qualifies as a nice surprise after arm problems kept Guzman under a total of 160 innings over the last three seasons. The one bright spot here is that Guzman registered a 3.82 ERA on a 28:12 K:BB in 30.2 IP with 28 H and 2 HR during a very tough AFL campaign for most pitchers. Staying healthy looks like all Guzman needs to take advantage of his still-strong skills, making him an intriguing late-round gamble in deep drafts or a superb in-season free agent addition."

Eric Patterson, CHN  " ...  While Patterson owns strong all-around skills and could develop into an offensive force at second base, pushing him to the majors without demanding steady development will force him into his older brother's career path. Eric Patterson still possesses sufficient upside to deserve late-round consideration in deeper NL leagues, however please recognize that he may need as many as three more years of seasoning to echo this performance in the majors."

Chuck James, ATL  " ...  I admit James frequently faced younger competition while also registering an awful .35 ground-fly ratio. He similarly lacks the endorsement of most scouts, which could limit his upside in Atlanta. However, he also compiled a 193:36 K:BB in 161.1 IP with 103 H, 9 HR, and a 2.12 ERA despite skipping from the Sally League to the majors in one year. James absolutely should begin 2006 in the majors, and although he might settle for a career as a dominant reliever, almost every statistic here indicates plenty of potential for more than a decade of success in a big league rotation."

Anthony Lerew, ATL  " ... Four straight strong seasons in the low minors nicely prepared Lerew for the upper levels of the system. Although he simply does not dominate hitters, Lerew's consistent effectiveness places him on the cusp of the Braves' 2006 rotation. He should emerge as a perfectly serviceable starting option by next fall."

    JR House, one more shot in baseball :

" ... House, who joined the West Virginia University football team this year after spending five years in the Pittsburgh Pirates' farm system, is giving up college football to return to baseball ...  26-year-old former catcher, announced his decision Friday ... He said he plans to head to Florida after final exams next week and bypass WVU's trip to the Sugar Bowl to participate in workouts for up to 11 major league teams, including the Houston Astros and the New York Metz. He hopes to be signed before spring training begins in February."  (SportsIllustrated / CNN)

    Eric Duncan of the Yankees chosen as the MVP of the Arizona League :

" ... Duncan, who turned 21 on Wednesday, hit .362 with eight homers and 27 RBIs ... led the league with a .734 slugging percentage, finished seventh with a .423 on-base percentage and eighth in batting average. He was listed as the top choice for the award by 87 percent of the managers and coaches, ahead of some pretty other impressive performers. "It feels great. I was just going out there and having a good time, putting up some good numbers," Duncan said. "You've got Brandon Wood, he hit like 37 homers or whatever he got. Howie Kendrick, I don't think I ever saw that kid get out. To be able to play with those guys and perform at their level was pretty special." (MiLB.com)


09 December,  2005   

    Venezuela - Luke Scott HOU 2-4, 8th homer, 2 RBI, .391 ... Chad Gaudin OAK, maybe the Jays knew some down days were on the way, 5 5 4 4 2 3, 2.19 ...  the new Ranger, Armando Galarraga, 6 7 3 2 1 4, 2.59 ...  Dominican hitting stats (might want to take note of Esteban German now that he might have a legitimate MLB shot ... and how about Wily Mo's BB/K ... on the other hand, Felix Pie  :

                         G  AB 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB  AVG  OBP
Peña Wily Mo CIN        12  47  0  0  5  14  8   7  1 .404 .500
Napoli Mike LAA         15  50  5  0  4  14  6  17  0 .360 .441
German Esteban KC       37 143  3  2  0  16 30  12 25 .350 .463
Castro Bernie WAS       37 165  5  3  1  13 10  13 11 .327 .371
Betemit Wilson ATL      35 131 10  0  6  19 21  35  0 .305 .399
Cruz Nelson MIL         27 105  4  1  9  25  4  23  2 .305 .333
Gathright Joey TB       22  95  4  0  0   7  8  13  9 .305 .365
Cabrera Melky NYA       29  84  6  1  0  11 11   9  5 .298 .375
Aybar Erick LAA         35 135  6  2  0   9 12  14 10 .296 .349
Guzman Joel LAD         34 123  9  1  5  26 15  27  1 .285 .364
Doumit Ryan PIT          9  26  0  0  0   3  4   6  0 .269 .367
Peña Jr. Tony ATL       31 113  4  2  3  16  6  23  2 .257 .298
Ramirez Hanley FLO      33 113  6  1  0   7 11  20  5 .257 .333
Encarnacion Edwin CIN   24  90  5  1  3  12 10  22  0 .256 .330
Arias Joaquin TEX       21  63  3  0  0   5  3   9  1 .254 .284
Mulhern Ryan CLE        31 118  4  1  8  20  7  40  3 .246 .291
Marte Andy BOS          30  99  5  1  2   9 16  17  0 .242 .359
Pie Felix CHN           29  91  3  2  1  10  4  19  1 .209 .250
Granderson Curtis DET   21  72  1  0  1   8 14  17  1 .194 .326
Aybar Willy LAD         17  63  3  0  1   8  3  12  1 .143 .182

    Troop movements ... MIL - traded Ty Taubenheim to TOR to complete the Overbay trade ... SF - signed Mark Sweeney ... TOR - traded Dustin Majewski to TOR to complete the Chad Gaudin trade ... CHA - traded Gio Gonzalez to PHI to complete the Jim Thome trade ... DET - signed Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers ... CIN - acquired Tony Womack from NYA for Kevin Howard and Ben Himes ... KC - signed Elmer Dessens ... ATL - traded Andy Marte for Edgar Renteria ... CIN - traded Sean Casey to PIT for Dave Williams ... PIT - released Ty Wigginton, traded Rob Mackowiak to CHA for Damaso Marte  ... COL - signed Jose Mesa ... COL - traded Carvajal Marcos to SEA to complete the Yorvit Torrealba trade ... SEA - designated Jeff Harris for assignment ... NYA - signed Mike Myers ... HOU - re-signed Orlando Palmeiro ...

    Just a dozen players selected in the annual Rule 5 draft.  The first pick was lefty Fabio Castro from the WSox system by the Royals who then traded him to TEX for infielder Esteban German.

Dan Uggla was one of just two position players taken.  Some draft notes from John Sickels :

" ... Florida: Dan Uggla ... .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 15 steals for Double-A Tennessee. Short infielder (5-11 max), 25 years old, but has pop in his bat. Could be a very useful bench guy with a strong bat."

" ... Minnesota: Jason Pridie ...  Limited to 28 games at Double-A Montgomery by injury. Very toolsy, good glove, has gap power and speed, but plate discipline is poor and he has yet to live up to expectations. 22 years old, hits from the left side."

" ... Florida: Mike Megrew ...   Injury season, threw just nine innings between the GCL Dodgers and Vero Beach, allowing 13 hits and 12 runs. When healthy, shows slightly above-average stuff from the left side. Best pitch is his curveball. 21 years old."

    Homer Bailey sits atop the CINCY prospect chart in John Franco's review at SportsBlurb

" ...  Bailey was the Reds’ first round pick in the 2004 draft, and he has pitched well in two seasons ... a lanky, projectable frame that should add velocity to a fastball that is already in the 92-94 range ...  probably good enough right now to be the Reds’ ace."

" ... Jay Bruce ... the Reds’ first round pick in the 2005 draft ... a potential five-tool player who profiles as a good defensive right fielder with a strong arm, a smooth left-handed swing, plus power and good patience at the plate ...  a long way off, but a .300-30-100 right fielder is something Reds fans will be happy to wait for."

" ... Travis Wood ...   second round of the 2005 draft. After signing, all he did was pitch like a first round pick, showing a 93-94 mile per hour fastball and a plus changeup as an 18-year old. In seven GCL starts totaling 24 innings, Wood posted an ERA of 0.75 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 45 to 7. His peripheral numbers were less impressive after a promotion to Billings, but he still managed an ERA of 1.82. Like Bailey, Wood is expected to add velocity to his fastball and could reach as high as 96-97 consistently once he matures. He needs to continue to improve his curveball in order to have three pitches, but his poise, velocity and changeup are enough to get him to the major leagues; with a good curveball, he could be a good No. 2 starter behind Bailey."

    Dayn Perry, FoxSports, takes a look at the Arizona farm and sees a bumper crop, including :

" ... Stephen Drew ...  On offense, Drew has it all: patience, power, and an ability to hit for average. He played across three levels in 2005, and tore it up until he reached the Southern League, where he struggled badly. Still, flailing against Double-A pitching in your first season in the minors isn't a stinging indictment. And the secondary hitting skills were still somewhat on display. Drew also rebounded very nicely in the Arizona Fall League. The forthcoming presence of Justin Upton ...  may force Drew to second or perhaps even center, but his bat will be middle-of-the-order quality no matter when he winds up on the diamond."

" ... Carlos Gonzalez ...  Keep your eye on this one. The reigning MVP of the Midwest League put up a batting line of .307 AVG/.371 OBP/.489 SLG despite being only 19 years of age for the entirety of the season and playing half his games in a modest pitcher's park. He profiles as a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder at the highest level, and at the plate he has a quick bat through the zone and advanced pitch-recognition skills. Gonzalez needs to improve his walk rates, but the power potential is very, very real."

    It's Chad Billingsley over Andy LaRoche and Joel Guzman for the No.1 prospect slot in LA according to Baseball America.  The list includes the probable middle infield combo of Etanislao (Tony) Abreu and Chin-Lung Hu.

    Yep, DVD, 1-2-3 on the Rangers' farm as David Regan ranks TEX at RotoAmerica

Thomas Diamond  " ... You could almost put the Rangers top three in any order, but I went with the polished Diamond #1. I just think he’s a slightly better bet to reach his ceiling than Volquez and Danks. Neither of the “DVD” trio performed spectacularly in AA, but Diamond blew through the hitter-friendly CAL league and if you look closely, his AA numbers aren’t that bad ... He’s well put-together at 6’3”, 220 and throws easily between 92-95 with his fastball while mixing in a very good change and a curve that has plus potential. Has a bulldog mentality on the hill."

" ... #5 Joaquin Arias ...  OPS of .757 doesn’t really overwhelm you, but keep in mind, Arias was 20 playing in AA. That’s very young. He’s more about tools than production right now, but the managers and scouts who saw him play think those tools are considerable. Hitting just .233 through the first two months of the season, Arias caught fire and hit over .350 the rest of the year. He’s very athletic and has great range, although like many young kids, he’s prone to making errors on routine plays. Has a great arm."

    Angels don't appear too unhappy over losing Bengie Molina :

" ... The Angels, believing top catching prospect Jeff Mathis is ready for prime time, officially bid adieu to longtime starting catcher Bengie Molina on Wednesday, declining to offer him arbitration ... Losing him to free agency clears room for Mathis to move to the big leagues next season, where he will be the starter and Molina's brother, Jose, will remain the backup. It also clears a spot for prospect Mike Napoli to move up to Triple-A Salt Lake, where Mathis had a solid season in 2005. "We didn't want to throw up a roadblock that would impede Mathis or impede Jose Molina," Angels general manager Bill Stoneman said. "If that would have meant Mathis going back to Triple-A, it would have meant Napoli going back to Double-A. ... Bengie has been a good player for us for a number of years now, and that made it tough. We know he liked playing for the Angels, and that also made it tough."  (LA Daily News)

    Michael Laureano, Diamond Futures has zipped through both his OF selections and SPs (relievers also posted).  Jeremy Hermida FLO tops the pasture kids in Michael's ranking, ahead of Delmon Young TB and Chris Young CHA.  Hunter Pence HOU rates No. 4, with Todd Linden SF at No. 5. Felix Pie CHN and Matt Kemp LAD others in the top ten.

Michael ranks the top 50 starting pitchers, which (and I hope Michael doesn't object too much here) I have broken down into righties and lefties.  The top dogs :

RHP                     LHP
Hughes Phil             Liriano Francisco
Hernandez Felix         Patton Troy
Hernandez Gabriel       James Chuck
Broxton Jonathan        Jones Justin
Petit Yusmeiro          Sowers Jeremy
Banks Josh              Gonzalez Gio
Diamond Thomas          Duke Zach
Ramirez Elizardo        Eveland Dana
Verlander Justin        Lester Jon
Clippard Tyler          Pignatiello Carmen
McCarthy Brandon        Parra Manny
Billingsley Chad        Olsen Scott

    Jeremy Sowers CLE adds to his trophy case, named the Indians' Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

" ...  In his first full season of professional ball, Sowers combined to go 14-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 27 starts between Kinston, Akron and Triple-A Buffalo. The 22-year-old began his tear through the Minor League system by going 8-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 13 starts at Kinston. He was named to the Carolina League All-Star team. After his promotion to Akron, he went 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 13 starts. In his lone start with the Bisons, Sowers allowed just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings. For the season, Sowers struck out 149 batters while walking just 29 in 159 1/3 innings of work. He led the organization in wins and strikeouts, while also ranking third in both innings and ERA ...  "Jeremy had an outstanding first season and exceeded our expectations this year," Farrell said. "Jeremy is a very astute pitcher who relies on great command and an already Major League changeup. We look forward to Jeremy's continued development and we are excited about his future." (MiLB.com)


08 December,  2005   

    Dominican - Wilson Betemit ATL 3-4, .305 ... Edison Volquez TEX 5 3 0 0 2 7, 4.00 ... Wily Mo Pena CIN 3-4, 5th homer, 4 RBI, .404 ... Mike Napoli LAA 3-4, 2 doubles, .360 ... Jose Capellan MIL 7 5 2 2 2 4, 2.00 ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-4, triple, .296

    Troop movements ...CLE - signed Bob Wickman ... KC - released DJ Carrasco ... LAA - designated Jeff DaVanon for assignment ... SEA - signed Jamie Moyer ... TOR - signed Reed Johnson ... ATL - traded Johnny Estrada to ARZ for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal, traded Danny Kolb to MIL for Wes Obermueller ... CHN - signed John Mabry, acquired Juan Pierre from FLO for Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto  ... CIN - released Randy Keisler ... LAD - signed Rafael Furcal, Olmedo Saenz ... PIT - traded Mark Redman to KC for Jonah Bayliss and PTBNL ... SD - traded Sean Burroughs to TB for Dewon Brazelton, traded Mark Loretta to BOS for Doug Mirabelli, signed Trevor Hoffman ... TEX - signed John Wasdin ... FLO - re-signed Brian Moehler ... COL - designated Miguel Ojeda for assignment, acquired Yorvit Torrealba from SEA for PTBNL ... STL - traded Ray King to COL for Aaron Miles and Larry Bigbie ...

Also, these not yet confirmed  WAS - traded Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge, Armando Galarraga to TEX for Alfonso Soriano ... TOR - traded David Bush, Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson to MIL for Lyle Overbay and PTBNL ... BAL - signed catcher Ramon Hernandez

     Lists updated ... Top 10s, Prospects by Position, Crossovers, Spring Training Inviteees, 40-man rosters

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, reviews his SD picks from pre-season 2005.

" ... 1) Josh Barfield ...  .310/.370/.450 for Triple-A Portland, rebounding from a mediocre 2004 season. Uncertain how he fits into San Diego's plans, but he has little left to prove in the minor leagues."

" ... 2) George Kottaras ...  .303/.390/.469 in 91 games for Class A Lake Elsinore, then .287/.397/.416 in 29 games for Double-A Mobile, which is not an easy place to hit. Very strong on-base skills, and power should increase."

    Matt Jacovina,WarmOctoberNights, offers a Top 10 for the WSox with a pair of outfielders at the top :

" ... 1. Chris Young  ...  An athletically gifted outfielder who has the statistics to back up scouts’ observations: .277/.377/.545 with 32 stolen bases in AA at only 21. All while playing a legitimate center field. He strikes out a ton, but as long as he continues to mash the ball when he makes contact and draw walks, they won’t be a big concern. There’s enough potential here to make Young the AL’s best overall centerfielder eventually, assuming he can continue to learn pitch recognition and retain his speed despite any added muscle mass."

" ... 2. Brian Anderson ...  Something else to consider about Chris Young’s ascension is Brian Anderson: the center field position should be Anderson’s to lose now that the Sox have traded away Aaron Rowand. While he doesn’t have the same sort of offensive of defensive ceiling as Young, there’s no reason to believe Brian won’t develop into at least an average overall CF. For the 2006 season, I’d expect him to go through some struggles adjusting to big league starters, but in the end post somewhere near a line of .270/.335/.430, which would still be better than most AL CF’s."

    Jason Collette, RotoJunkie, continues his review of 2005 picks :

Angel Guzman, CHN  " ... The big-armed Guzman spent 2005 recovering from his surgery and only pitched in two games totaling six innings. He did come back to pitch very well in the Arizona Fall League so there is yet hope for him."

Ryan Harvey, CHN  " ...  While Hermida and Francoeur have left him in the dust, Harvey was finally able to stay healthy hitting .257/.293/.484 in 467 at bats. The low OBP is of concern, but the 56 extra base hits show his pop. He must gain more discipline as his walk rate has fallen nearly 50% since 2003."

Edwin Encarnacion, CIN  " ... started 2005 in AAA hitting .314/.384/.548 in 290 at bats. That earned him a promotion to the majors where he hit .232/.299/436 in 211 at bats. His plate discipline dropped off upon his promotion but he maintained a plus isolated power rating at both levels. If league mates soured on Encarnacion in 2005, pick the 22 year old up now."

Homer Bailey, CIN  " ...   pitched in 103 innings of Low A ball going 8-4 with a 4.43 ERA. He struck out 10.9 per nine innings and held batters to a .233 OBA. However, he also walked 5.4 per nine and allowed batters to get on base at a .341 rate."

Hunter Pence, HOU  " ...  has the power. He hit .327/.401/.598 in 453 at bats between both levels of A ball. The 22 year old has solid plate skills to back up that power potential."


07 December,  2005   

    Dominican -  Andy Marte ATL, subject of trade rumours, 3-4, double, walk, .247 ... Nelson Cruz MIL 1-5, double, RBI, 4 Ks, .317  

    Troop movements ... BOS - John Olerud, retired ... TOR - signed SP A.J. Burnett ... SF - trade LaTroy Hawkins to BAL for Steve Kline ... CIN - not yet official, Sean Casey to PIT for Dave Williams ... 

    Stephen Drew takes the top spot in the Baseball America ranking of the ARZ system. Conor Jackson edges Carlos Quentin for the runner-up slot with Carlos Gonzalez up to No. 4. 

    John Franco, SportsBlurb, profiles the Cubbies kids and Felix Pie wins top marks :

" ...  Pie is a classic five-tool player who is still working on translating his tremendous tools into usable baseball skills. He made contact in 78 percent of his at-bats during the 2005 season (compared with 72.5 percent in 2004) and, more importantly, started to showcase his raw power. Pie hit 11 home runs and 33 extra-base hits in just 240 at-bats before his season ended in June because of an ankle injury that cost him a promotion to the major leagues ...  his power and speed should allow him to hit for a good average even if he struggles to make contact ... has the potential to be a dynamic leadoff hitter or a good No. 3 hitter, but Pie will need to display a more consistent work ethic if he is going to reach his potential."

"Mark Pawelek, No. 3  " ...  the Cubs’ first round pick in the 2005 draft, an impressive accomplishment for a high-school pitcher from Utah. He is a left-handed starter with an impressive feel for pitching and a fastball that sits comfortably in the low 90s and touches 95 with good movement and deception – about as good a recipe for a prospect as there is in baseball."

    David Regan, RotoAmerica, offers his San Diego prospect chart.  

Josh Barfield, No. 1  " ...  risen steadily through the system, spending all of 2004 in AA and all of 2005 in AAA for the Padres. After a poor 2004 that saw him hit just .248/.313/.417 in the Southern League, he rebounded nicely this year and while it was much more of a hitter’s league, his performance brought him back into “very good” prospect status ... still profiles as a solid regular in the majors. He made some adjustments to this swing and really came on down the stretch and appears on the cusp of making the big leagues ... Defensively, scouts and managers praise the improvement he’s made in the last year and he now at least profiles as an average 2B. No position change needed. Has a solid makeup and is best in clutch situations where his focus seems to kick into overdrive."

Cesar Carrillo, No. 3  " ... your prototypical polished college pitcher and could acquit himself adequately in the majors right now. Cesar throws a fastball that sits anywhere between 91 and 95 and can touch 97 reportedly. What makes it such a tough pitcher outside of a good velocity is its movement. He also throws a very good curve and solid change ...  a bit on the small side at 6’3 175 lbs., and could stand to add a little muscle, but he throws plenty hard already. Some scouts wonder how his body will hold up over a 180-200 IP season, but so far so good."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, with some thoughts on his 2005 pre-season Top 20 for SEA :

" ...  3) Shin-Soo Choo ...  .282/.382/.431 with 20 steals, 11 homers for Triple-A Tacoma. He seems to have leveled out as a "tweener," not a bad player but not quite enough power to play a corner."

" ... 7) Jorge Campillo ... 2.71 ERA with 45/18 K/BB in 66 innings for Triple-A Tacoma. Old for a prospect at 27 and not overpowering, but he can probably help someone."

" ... 17) Asdrubal Cabrera ... .318/.407/.474 for Wisconsin, then .284/.325/.418 for Inland Empire. Just 19, a long way from the majors but has good tools and has played fairly well so far."

    More catchup from Tim Polko, Rotohelp.com.  

NYA, SP  " ... Phillip Hughes ...  the 23rd player selected in 2004, emerged as the brightest prospect in the system before a broken toe ended his season in August. His 93:20 K:BB in 86.1 IP suggests significant long-term upside as he dominated A-ball hitters. Continued injury problems remain his primary obstacle in reaching in the majors, though after another year in the upper minors, he may join Chien-Ming Wang in 2007 to give the Yankees two very promising homegrown starters for the first time in many years."

NYA, SP  " ... Tyler Clippard ... advanced to high-A yet posted superior numbers in almost every respect to his similarly dominant 2004 campaign. The combination of tremendous strikeout totals and few walks easily compensate for an otherwise worrisome ground-fly rate. He'll open next season at AA Trenton as the most heralded pitching prospect in the system outside of Phillip Hughes."

MIN, SP  " ... Francisco Liriano ...   one of the most dominant left-handed forces in baseball at any level. His 204 strikeouts led the minors while his 237 strikeouts on the season ranked behind only teammate Johan Santana, the preferred comparison for scouts when discussing Liriano. My biggest concern here is that he only turns 22 into a couple days yet amassed nearly 160 innings last year while topping 190 innings this summer ...  Rank Liriano at the top of your minor league pitchers."

MIN, 3B  " ... Matt Moses ...  21st player selected in 2003, Moses only managed 177 at-bats in his initial professional seasons due to heart and then back problems. At least he remained fairly healthy this year and even earned a trip to the AFL. Stumbling at New Britain, coupled with his uncertain future position, temporarily dims his prospect light, yet Moses also only turns 21 in February. I expect him to reach the majors fairly soon even if his unimpressive development track makes him a bad fantasy pick due to the chance of him peaking as a utility player."

LAA, C  " ... Jeff Mathis ...  Only catastrophic insanity in the Angels' front office could prevent Mathis from opening 2006 as the starting catcher ...  needs to learn the pitching staff, and he may not possess Molina's defensive skills. However no one should ignore the likely fact that promoting Mathis instead of retaining Molina in free agency should save the Angels somewhere in the neighborhood of twenty-five million dollars over the rest of the decade. Mike Napoli, the AA starter this year, may own even more offensive upside than Mathis, but Mathis is ready to start now and owns the catching skills necessary to secure the starting job for a long time."

LAA, INF  " ... Erick Aybar ... With a 68% stolen base success rate and only a .05 walk rate, Aybar lacks the primary skills necessary to take advantage of his natural speed. Yes, he hasn't hit below .300 as a professional. Scoring over 100 runs in consecutive seasons similarly impresses me. Yet I just can't view him as a vital cog or even a particularly good fantasy prospect when surrounded on the depth chart by Orlando Cabrera and Brandon Wood."

KC, OF  " ... Chris Lubanski ...  played at one of the best hitters' parks in professional baseball, but he also accumulated 72 extra-base hits in high-A after turning 20 in March. A .75 contact rate, good speed, and increasingly intriguing power potential easily could compensate for his lack of patience. The fifth pick from the 2003 draft should challenge for a big league job by next fall, so despite his questionable plate discipline, Lubanski's clear path to the majors insures he deserves a high pick in any minor league draft."

KC, 3B  " ... Alex Gordon ...  College baseball's player of the year didn't get a big league contract, which should insure he spend all of 2006 in the minors, likely finishing the season no lower than AA Omaha, a perfect spot for the University of Nebraska star. Mark Teahen's development at the plate then should dictate Gordon's 2007 season, since if Teahen's offense improves, his superior defense will force Gordon into the increasingly loaded future 1B/DH/OF competition in Kansas City. Regardless of his future position, Gordon's bat insures an everyday job with the Royals, thereby earning him a position among the top long-term prospects selected in any minor league draft."

DET, SP  " ... Justin Verlander ...  simply dominated the Florida State and Eastern Leagues ...  compiling a 1.29 ERA that ranked first in the minors by nearly three-quarters of a point. He now belongs in any discussion of the top pitching prospects in the game, and while giving him a couple months at AAA Toledo makes sense after he suffered from shoulder fatigue, Verlander also appears prepared to post positive fantasy value in the majors."

DET, SP  " ... Joel Zumaya ...  Finishing the season at Toledo gives Zumaya a commanding edge on Justin Verlander for the fifth starter's job in spring training, yet Detroit's failure to promote him in September indicates justified concerned regarding his control. Yes, Zumaya clearly dominated most of his opposition while racking 199 strikeouts, a total that ranked second only to Francisco Liriano in the minors, a 4.5 walk rate really worries me. The combination of this elevated workload and new Detroit manager Jim Leyland, notorious for allowing high pitch counts in his previous managerial stops, places Zumaya in particular danger of injury. Despite his potential for both immediate and long-term success, Zumaya only warrants a place on your team if you understand the definite possibility of him losing a season to the DL in the near future."

DET, OF  " ... Cameron Maybin ...   tenth overall pick of the draft finally signed ... and will begin his professional career in the spring. Treat Maybin purely as a long-term gamble, however he rates as a pure centerfielder, so even if his bat takes a long time to develop, he eventually will emerge as a quality everyday player. Expecting any less than a majority of four seasons in the minors is a mistake, so also realize that his fantasy value consists of little more than his role as trade bait until somewhere around 2009."

CLE, SP  " ... Jeremy Sowers ... A consistently dominant season vaulted the two-time first round pick to the cusp of the majors. Sowers now appears set to compete with Fausto Carmona and any veteran holdovers for the fifth starter's job in the spring. Of course, with no urgent need to rush him to the majors, Sowers instead should return to Buffalo for a little more seasoning before he joins C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee to give Cleveland the most dominant lefty trio in the majors. I see plenty of reasons to value Sowers among the most valuable young pitchers in fantasy baseball."

CLE, 1B  " ... Michael Aubrey ...  Power prospects that lose time to back problems at this age should frighten their fantasy owners. Yes, Aubrey remains a respectable prospect ...  Yet with no established performance record after three professional seasons thanks to recurring injuries, we no longer can consider Aubrey a vital piece of the Indians' future."

CHA, OF  " ... Brian Anderson ...  Perhaps nothing here stands out as overly impressive, but the key here is that Anderson owns respectable skills now and most scouts believe he possesses significant long-term upside. Reaching the majors barely two years after Chicago selected him with the 15th overall pick, he demonstrated both a good walk rate and promising power potential ...  looks like an excellent sleeper candidate for Rookie of the Year given the increasing media attention earned by Chicago's success."

CHA/FLO, SP  " ... Gio Gonzalez ...   compiled a 163:47 K:BB in 131 IP despite not turning 20 until after the season in September. He hasn't compiled a lot of innings for his age despite dominating mostly older hitters in A-ball ... won't require a 40-man spot until after the 2006 season. Even though you risk losing him to your competitors, wait until you see him continue excelling against AA hitters before rostering him anywhere."

BOS, 2B  " ... Dustin Pedroia ... Only a mild wrist injury prevented Pedroia from replacing Mark Bellhorn for the stretch run. Boston's second round pick in 2004 instead finished polishing his skills at Pawtucket, and barring a largely unexpected commitment to a veteran, Pedroia will enter 2006 as Boston's starter at second base even as he possesses the defensive skills to handle himself at shortstop. While he obviously lacks speed, Pedroia's outstanding plate discipline will result in his promotion to the #2 hole before he reaches arbitration. With further BA and power development looking very likely, you should consider Pedroia a leading Rookie of the Year candidate and future All-Star."

BOS, SP  " ... Jon Lester ...  steady progression up the minor league ladder places Lester on the cusp of the majors next spring as perhaps Boston's best long-term prospect. While a mildly elevated walk rate continues to concern me, Lester's overall dominance as a very young southpaw starter bodes quite well for his career prospects."

BAL, SP  " ... Hayden Penn ...  exploded up the prospect charts in 2004, compiling a 122:48 K:BB in 136 IP while receiving two in-season promotions to finish the year at Bowie. While skipping him to the majors ...  proved a mistake given his abysmal command, nothing in his minor league stats dims his future in any way. I still consider him an excellent long-term rotation lock for the Orioles if he can adhere nearer the career path of Daniel Cabrera rather than that of Denny Bautista."

BAL, OF  " ... Nick Markakis ...  The Orioles' future right fielder could join the big league club any time next season and then likely not depart the starting lineup for the rest of the decade. Markakis owns every batting skill necessary to emerge as a dominant offensive force if he continues developing as expected. Given the organization appears fully committed to letting him mature into a star, he ranks as the safest Baltimore prospect to own in any long-term fantasy league."


06 December,  2005 

Dominican - Mike Napoli LAA 1-3, 4th homer & 0-2, .326 ... after a hot start, Edwin Encarnacion CIN 0-4 & 1-2, walk, .253 .. Juan Cruz OAK 4 4 1 1 0 5, 3.18 ... Luis Terrero ARZ 3-4, 4th homer, .301 ...  Francisco Rosario TOR 2/3 4 5 2 2 0, 3.32 ... Wily Mo Pena CIN 2-4, 4th homer, .372 ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-5, .290 ... Felix Pie CHN 0-3, .209 ... Wilson Betemit ATL 3-4, .291 

Venezuela - Jerry Owens CHA 2-4, 2 doubles, .377 ... TJ Bohn CF SEA 2-4, .270

    Troop movements ... STL - signed catcher Gary Bennett, infielder Deivi Cruz ... OAK - acquired Chad Gaudin from TOR for PTBNL, released catcher John Baker ... 

    Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld, with his picks for a few of the most likely selections in Thursday's Rule 5 draft :

" ... Kevin Howard ...  Probably the best bet to go in the draft, Howard hit .296/.346/.428 for Double-A Chattanooga and then led the Arizona Fall League in hitting. He's a below average second baseman, so he might end up at third base for the long-term. The Marlins are one of the teams that could look at him as a cheap solution."

" ... Brandon Sing ...  Followed up .270/.399/.571 season at Single-A Daytona by hitting .276/.404/.538 in Double-A in 2005. Right-handed hitter could help an American League team. He's a below average defender at first base, and the Cubs felt he was hopeless in left field."

" ... Rafael Rodriguez ...  Definitely one of the highest upsides among pitchers available. Rodriguez went 9-4 with a 4.74 ERA, 145 H and 118/60 K/BB in 146 1/3 IP between two A-ball teams last season, so he's not nearly ready. Still, he can run it into the mid-90s and he has a slider that occasionally resembles a plus pitch."

" ... Davis Romero ...  At 5'10'', 156 pounds, Romero seems to go completely overlooked. 9-6, 3.47 ERA, 133 H, 136/34 K/BB in 124 2/3 IP for Single-A Dunedin. Talented enough to be an adequate lefty reliever right away."

" ... Kevin Kouzmanoff ...  2003 sixth-round pick missed time with back problems, but hit .339/.401/.591 in 254 AB for Single-A Kinston. He has a chance to be a solid regular in time."

    Michael Laureano, Diamond Futures offers his picks as the best of the third base and shortstop prospects and the lists offer some surprises (not usual from the Laureano file!).  Billy Butler KC tops the third sackers although his infield days are likely long behind him.  Andy LaRoche LAD and Andy Marte ATL ranked 2-3 with Ryan Zimmerman WAS and Edwin Encarnacion the next pair.  COL's Ian Stewart hung on for the 10th spot.  

BJ Upton TB topped Brandon Wood LAA for the No.1 slot in the shortstop class.  Adam Jones (now a CF for SEA) was No. 3.  Marcus Sanders SF and Sean Rodriguez LAA finished ahead of the highly touted Joel Guzman LAD.

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, reviews his 2005 pre-season PIT Top 20 :

" ... 2) Ian Snell ... 11-3, 3.70 in 18 starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, 104/23 K/BB in 112 innings. Still a solid strike-throwing, power-pitching prospect."

" ... 4) Tom Gorzelanny ...8-5, 3.26 in 23 starts for Double-A Altoona, 124/46 K/BB in 130 innings. Doesn't get as much attention as he deserves, but he has a good southpaw arm and has made large improvements with his command."

" ... 11) Paul Maholm ... Pitched well for Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, then went 3-1, 2.18 in six starts for the Pirates. Standard command-control lefty, has to be sharp to survive but usually is. Best news is full recovery from injury-plagued bad luck '04 season."

    Playing catchup with prospect reports by Tim Polko, Rotohelp.com.  

TB, 1B " ...  Wes Bankston ... continued development since moving to the infield keeps him in discussions of the Rays' future infield. Two solid seasons in the Sally League provided the foundation for him to slam through the California League in less than a month to join Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes at Montgomery ... posted similar numbers to Dukes at a more important position. Any action by the Rays to use their surplus outfielders to add pitching or a third baseman boosts Bankston's value, potentially pushing a currently solid sleeper pick much higher in most minor league drafts."

TB, OF  " ... Elijah Dukes ...  anger management problems increasingly dim Dukes' prospect status, but an all-around solid offensive season conversely pushes him to the cusp of the majors. The biggest problem ... shouldn't supplant Delmon Young, Jonny Gomes, or Joey Gathright in the organization's OF/DH plans. You almost certainly should wait until Tampa sends Dukes somewhere with much less competition for at-bats."

SEA, OF  " ... Shin-Soo Choo ...  Reduced power, less speed, and a lower contact rate all accompanied Choo's increased walk total ... generally weak quantitative output might prevent him from winning the third job in an outfield already two-thirds full of players with minimal power ...  However, playing Choo every day would improve the Mariners' defense, and his long-term upside remains as high as any outfielder in the organization."

SEA, OF  " ... Adam Jones ...  key to his offensive output is that he only turned 20 on August 1st, which left Jones among the youngest players in the Texas League. Passable patience, developing power potential, and even a bit of speed combine to indicate tremendous long-term upside for Jones, so although contact problems could hinder his development, he also might challenge Jeremy Reed for a starting job by 2007.

 SEA, 1B  " ... Bryan LaHair ... A completely unexpected power surge, accompanied by a dramatic improvement in plate discipline, propelled LaHair from unknown 39th round draft-and-follow to the best first base prospect in the organization ...   needs to echo this performance above A-ball before earning any fantasy consideration, his overall offensive skill set now depicts a player perfectly capable of succeeding at higher levels."

SEA, SS  " ... Matt Tuiasosopo ...  While he owns decent patience and could develop into an offensive force, he also appears to need no less than three more seasons before departing the minors."

OAK, SP  " ... Dan Meyer ... Multiple shoulder problems curtailed Meyer's innings and his performance as he fell from a projected starter in Oakland to barely staying in Sacramento's rotation. Yet he also slammed through all four levels of full-season ball in only two years with Atlanta, even making his big league debut last fall, so I see no reason he can't rebound from this disaster. A healthy Meyer could explode into fantasy prominence with the Athletics, so take advantage of his lowered value to snag the southpaw at a discount next spring."

OAK, OF  " ... Andre Ethier ...  I find Ethier's campaign less impressive than many analysts otherwise wowed by his development. The good news is that he registered improved across-the-board averages despite advancing from A+ Modesto to Midland. His power boost particularly catches my eye, yet erosion in both his walk rate (.11 to .10) and especially his contact rate (.85 to .82) indicate potential problems as he heads to a full year at Sacramento. However, Ethier also ranks position as the most advanced outfield prospect in the system."

OAK, 2B  " ... Kevin Melillo ...  needs to maintain this performance over a year likely split between Midland and AAA Sacramento before challenging Mark Ellis for the starting job in 2007. Any Athletics' prospect with a career OBP over .400 soon will reach the majors, and after managing a combined line of .305/.399/.535 with 24 HR, 93 RBI, 101 R, a 21/27 SB%, and a 79:81 BB:K, I see no flaws in Melillo's offensive game."

OAK, SS  " ... Cliff Pennington ...  surprisingly began his professional career in the Midwest League, where he demonstrated strong speed skills and impressive plate discipline. He easily could finish next season at AA Midland, positioning him to challenge for a big league job by the end of 2007. Yes, Pennington currently ranks behind Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, and Kevin Melillo on the organization's long-term depth chart, but the fantasy upside suggested by Pennington's combination of steals and walks makes him a worthy late pick in deep AL roto leagues."


05 December,  2005

    Thank you for surfin' in.  This month visitors from more than 70 jurisdictions including- Argentina, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bermuda, Brazil, Canada, Cayman Islands, Chile, China, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia (Hrvatska), Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Korea (South), Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Network, New Zealand (Aotearoa), Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom, United States, Venezuela, Viet Nam.

    Dominican - Ryan Mulhern CLE 1-4, 8th homer, .252 ...  Mike Napoli LAA 2-4, double, .341 ... Tony Pena Jr. 2-4, double, .264 ... Felix Pie CHN 0-3, .216 ... Hanley Ramirez FLO 0-4, .264

Venezeula - Alberto Callaspo LAA 2-6, .333 ... Yusmeiro Petit FLO 6 2/3 8 2 2 1 5, 1.95

    Troop movements ... LA - signed shortstop Rafael Furcal ... not yet confirmed, but it appears Paul Byrd to CLE ... Paul LoDuca to NYN, Gaby Hernandez to FLO ... 

    Ryan Zimmerman stands atop the WAS Top 10 as John Franco, SportsBlurb, offers comments on his picks as the best of the Nationals' farm system :

" ... Ryan Zimmerman ...  one of the early favorites for the 2006 Rookie of the Year award ... best asset is his glove; he has the quickness and hands to be a Gold Glove third baseman, and the Nationals had even toyed with the idea of moving him to shortstop ...  Despite his impressive showing in 2005, Zimmerman is not an elite offensive player yet, since he doesn’t draw a lot of walks or hit for power. He does have a smooth, compact swing that will produce a good average and power to the gaps, and projects to develop into a better power hitter as he matures."

" ... 3. Armando Galarraga ...  23-year old Galarraga had a lengthy journey to success ... spending five seasons between rookie ball and the GCL, and another two years in his native Venezuela, since being signed as a 16-year old. He pitched extremely well in the Carolina League ... 2.48 ERA and striking out 79 batters in 80 innings. He was not as successful in Double-A, where he posted an ERA of 5.19 and saw his strikeout rate drop by almost one-third, but Galarraga still showed all of the tools necessary for success. He has an effortless delivery that produces a low-90s fastball with good movement, and also has a hard slider that is an effective out pitch. He is still working on improving his changeup, a pitch that will be necessary for him to reach his potential as a starter."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, offers a review of his 2005 pre-season Dodgers' Top 20, including some of the "other" (other than Guzman, Billingsley, Loney, Martin, LaRoche et al) prospects and the best of the lot in the Tampa Bay system :

" ... 3) Jonathan Broxton ... 3.17 ERA at Jacksonville, used as a starter and reliever. Posted 107/31 K/BB in 97 innings. Control problems kept his ERA over 5.00 in brief major league action, but his ceiling remains very high."

" ... 8) Delwyn Young ... .296/.346/.499 in 95 games for Jacksonville, then .325/.361/.475 in 36 games for Triple-A Las Vegas. Plate discipline is shaky but he has a lot of bat speed."

" ... 17) Justin Orenduff ...  5-3, 2.24 in 12 starts for Vero Beach, then 5-2, 4.07 in 13 starts for Jacksonville. Maintained strong strikeout rate after promotion, although other numbers slipped. Control an issue but I like him."

" ... 19) Matt Kemp ... .306/.349/.569 with 27 homers, 23 steals for Vero Beach. Very impressive tools, skills are coming along. Main issue is plate discipline, which will be a challenge in Double-A."

Tampa Bay :

" ... 1) Delmon Young ...  .285/.303/.447 in 52 games after being promoted to Triple-A, at age 19. He is not perfect: his plate discipline needs work. But his combination of power, speed (32 steals), and youth makes him one of the elite prospects in the game."

" ... 7) Reid Brignac ...  .264/.319/.416 with 29 doubles, 15 homers for Class A Southwest Michigan. OK season but I thought he would do better than this. Had problems with contact, struck out more than once per game."

" ... 8) Jason Hammel ...  8-2, 2.66 in 12 starts for Montgomery, then 3-2, 4.12 in 10 starts for Durham. 48/27 K/BB in 55 Triple-A innings shows decent strikeout rate but too many walks. Will need more time."

    For once, a little good news on Chris Snelling SEA :

" ...  Snelling underwent surgery on his left knee in September and had targeted a midsummer return, but is ahead of schedule." (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)

    Neil Walker PIT on the shelf for up to two months :

" ...   Walker ...  the Pirates' top draft pick in 2004, will miss six to eight weeks because of wrist surgery ...  A ligament on the outer part of Walker's left wrist tore as he was swinging the bat Nov. 9 in the penultimate game of the Arizona Fall League's regular season. ...   Management chose surgery because it felt it presented the best chance to ensure Walker will be ready for the opening of spring training in mid-February. He will not participate in the voluntary minicamp for pitchers and catcher Jan. 10-15. "It's not severe," director of player development Brian Graham said."  (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

    Michael Laureano, Diamond Futures, selects the best of the second base prospects and tabs Rickie Weeks MIL for the top slot.  That likely comes as no surprise, but the runner-up might -- the Dodgers' Travis Denker Dustin Pedroia BOS is No. 3.  Howie Kendrick LAA ranks No. 6.  I'm sure Michael will get a few notes about that !

    More on Travis Denker LAD :

" ...   While he may not have all the tools to attract national attention at this point, he’s a very good player who does have all-star potential. Hitting with power and keeping patient at 19 in A ball isn’t something to ignore, even though he’s come from obscurity. Don’t be surprised if by this time next year Denker is being touted as the Dodgers’ second baseman of the future."  (WarmOctoberNights)

" ...   someone is impersonating Jeff Kent at the minor league level ... Denker really broke out this year to become a legitimate contender for a top 100 slot ...  showed a great combination of power and plate discipline at the Low A level ...  .973 OPS is great for an OF and incredible for a 2B. Two negatives though: Denker may be a man without a position. The Dodgers hope he can develop into an offensive 2B, but some scouts say that his range, arm, and hands limit him to LF or even DH. Ouch ... There’s still a lot to like about this kid, but he’s also got a lot to prove in 2006." (RotoAmerica)

    Baseball America highlights the Cardinals' system in the latest Top 10.  Anthony Reyes retains the No. 1 listing ahead of OF Colby Rasmus and SS Tyler Greene.  

    Tim Polko, Rotohelp.com, with tons of info on prospects as takes a team-by-team look at the top young guns (especially for 2006 play). 

" ... Dustin McGowan ...  Returning to competition following scarcely a year of Tommy John rehab, McGowan reestablished his command at Dunedin, remained effective at New Hampshire, and then registered fairly strong skills over the last couple months of the season in Toronto ...  nearly ready to contribute in the majors, though unless McGowan breaks camp in Toronto's relief corps, even taking a Dollar Days' gamble right now seems rather risky."

" ... Casey Janssen ...  Earning two promotions while compiling a 136:20 K:BB in 148.2 IP during his first full season of pitching duty at any level places Janssen's season among the most impressive campaigns of the year. A fourth round pick out of UCLA in 2004, his unimpressive hit rate looks like the only worrisome stat here. Everything else suggests that Janssen will reach Toronto during 2006 and likely develop into no less than a very good middle reliever for the rest of the decade."

" ... Ian Kinsler ...  I considered Kinsler perhaps the best long-term position player available in most drafts last spring. Demolishing both the Midwest and Texas Leagues while demonstrating five solid tools rightfully resulted in another promotion to Oklahoma for Kinsler, and if the Rangers deal Alfonso Soriano as expected, Kinsler will step into the starting lineup in April. His five-category upside offers more immediate fantasy potential than any position player in the league, especially considering his home park and superior plate discipline to most comparable prospects. Kinsler enters 2006 as a primary Rookie of the Year candidate meriting bids into the mid-teens in most any standard fantasy league."

" ... Joaquin Arias ...  Expect Arias to push Mike Young back to second base or even out to centerfield in another year or two. While his limited power, questionable baserunning instincts, and poor patience all indicated ... struggles for Arias as he nears the majors, the combination of his defensive skills and historically solid BA suggests he'll refine his tools in the Rangers' infield."

" ... Edison Volquez ...  Shooting to the majors from the California League pushes Volquez slightly ahead of fellow DVD starters Thomas Diamond and John Danks in the Rangers' plans. His superior performance at Frisco provides welcome support for the otherwise questionable decision to promote him to Texas. Hopefully Volquez now will receive the full year in the upper minors he requires to finish honing his skills before the Rangers recall him for good."


03-04 December,  2005   

    Dominican -  Edison Volquez TEX 1 2/3 5 5 4 0 1 ... Luis Terrero ARZ 3-4, triple, .284 ... Bernie Castro WAS 2-5, triple, .333 ... shortstop Tony Pena Jr. ATL 2-5, triple, .255 ... Hanley Ramirez FLO 1-6, .274

Venezuela - Armando Galarraga WAS 6.0 4 2 1 3 3, 2.49 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4, .346 

Mexico -  Calvin Pickering, bidding for another MLB opportunity, 2-4, 2 homers (13), 3 RBI, .304

    Troop movements ... well, write off that Venezuelan success for Chad Gaudin, dumped from the 40-man roster by the Jays ... HOU - resigned Russ Springer ...

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, reviews his 2005 pre-season HOU Top 20.

" ... 2) Mitch Einertson ... Hit just .234/.353/.352 for Class A Lexington. Maintained strong walk rate and actually cut his strikeouts slightly, but everything else fell apart. He may have been distracted by "family issues" that cost him a month of playing time. I have no clue what will happen here."

" ... 3) Ezequiel Astacio ...  Pitched in 22 games for Houston, including 14 starts. Went 3-6, 5.67 with a 66/25 K/BB in 81 innings, but allowed 100 hits and 23 homers. Capable of better, but Minute Maid is not an easy place to pitch, and not everyone is Roy Oswalt."

" ... 8) Troy Patton ... Went 6-6 between Lexington and Salem, but with combined 2.18 ERA and 132/28 K/BB in 120 innings. Excellent ratio set, strong numbers across the board."

    Aaron Gleeman, RotoWorld, has a few more young guns as he offers the third installment of his outfield picks for the future :

" ... 21) Jeremy Hermida ...  One of the best, most underrated prospects in all of baseball, Jeremy Hermida made a big splash when he hit a grand slam in his very first big-league at-bat. With Florida once again in full rebuilding mode, Hermida should have a clear path to plenty of playing time beginning in 2006. A legit five-tool prospect, Hermida really stuffed the stat sheet in 118 games at Triple-A this season, hitting .293 with 18 homers, 29 doubles, 23 steals, and an amazing 111 walks. Oh, and he doesn’t turn 22 until January."

" ... 26) Curtis Granderson ... Tigers messed around with Nook Logan in center field for much of the year before finally turning the position over to Curtis Granderson, who more than earned the job by hitting .303 with 21 homers and 14 steals in 123 games at Double-A in 2004 and .290 with 15 homers and 22 steals in 111 games at Triple-A this year. Granderson then batted .272 with eight homers, 20 RBIs, and 18 runs scored in 47 games with Detroit, and should be a long-term fixture in Comerica Park’s spacious outfield."

" ... 28) Lastings Milledge ...  Seemingly involved in every trade rumor so far this offseason, Lastings Milledge may never patrol center field at Shea Stadium. However, he’s just 20 years old and hit .318 with eight homers and 29 stolen bases between Single-A and Double-A this season, so wherever he ends up will be just fine. Actually, moving to a team with a friendlier home ballpark for offense would give Milledge’s fantasy value a nice boost, although at some point you’ve got to think that the Mets will hold on to a good prospect or two."

    Kevin T. Czerwinski, MLB.com, sees some reasons for optimism in Toronto after a review of the Blue Jays' farm :

" ...  Adam Lind ...  Though it's tough to say that someone playing in his first full season had a breakout year, Lind certainly makes a case for it ... hit .313 this season with 12 homers and 84 RBIs at Class A Dunedin. Overall, he had 58 extra-base hits and looks like he's going to develop into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. He got an invite to play in the AFL, but the long season seemed to have taken its toll. He hit .238 in 25 games, though he did add another homer and 10 more RBIs."

" ... Ricky Romero ...  stepped right into pro ball and continued to excel. After a brief stay in the New York-Penn League, he made the jump to the Florida State League, going 1-0 with a 3.82 ERA in eight starts for Dunedin. Overall, his ERA was 3.58. Romero gave every indication that he'll be able to handle professional hitters as well as he did the amateurs in college. He has a strong, low-90s fastball, a solid change and a good curveball."

" ... David Purcey ...  went 9-7 this season at Dunedin and New Hampshire while posting a 3.41 ERA in 29 starts. He fanned 161 in 137 1/3 innings and may get a sniff of the big leagues at some point before 2006 ends."

    Big (6-8) right-hander Jason Hirsh sits atop the HOU prospect chart at Baseball America. Lefty Troy Patton is the runner-up.

    My pleasure (and your benefit) to have David Farr back to track down the Non-Roster Invitees ... those off the roster guys who get to go to Spring Training with the big boys ... our updated list here.

    SEA and prized SP at odds over participation in baseball's World Cup event :

" ... Felix Hernandez wants to represent his native Venezuela ... The Mariners don't want to risk the most valuable arm in the organization ... Mariners have filed an official objection to Hernandez's potential participation in the World Cup-like event, but a source close to Hernandez said Thursday night the right-hander was hoping to pitch for his homeland. "As far as I know, he wants to play and still plans to play," said the source ... They believe that his youth and past health concerns — he was on the disabled list last season from June 14 to July 9 with shoulder bursitis — make it risky for him to pitch in the tournament ... "He's going to be piling on innings for us, and every inning he pitches in the tournament is an inning that's going to be subtracted from what he's going to pitch for us," said Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi."  (Seattle Times)

    At BaseballThinkFactory, Dan Szymborski, adds his 2006 predictions for the Mets (although obviously this is an un-edited version, including players "Awfulman" and "The Run Fairy" among others). 

    Chris Kline, Baseball America, with notes on some possible Rule 5 picks, including :

" ... Rafael Rodriguez ...  has arguably the most electric stuff of any player eligible, but as explosive as his arsenal is, it is also extremely erratic. He logged a career-high 146 innings in 2005, but struggled in the second half at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga when he tended to elevate his pitches. Rodriguez features a 90-94 mph fastball with great life, and hard-biting mid-80s slider. He hasn't been able to refine his changeup and appears destined for the bullpen."

" ... Kevin Howard ...  the biggest buzz coming into this year's draft after having a brilliant season in the Arizona Fall League. A fifth-round pick in 2002 out of Miami, Howard won the AFL batting title, hitting .409-3-16 in 88 at-bats. But perhaps his strongest asset was proving himself to be an adequate defender at third base. Howard played third in college, but played primarily second base since turning pro. He's a patient lefthanded hitter with a line-drive stroke, and has shown improved power. Some scouts in the AFL liked him better at third, and Howard could be solid at either spot making him the best overall position player available in the draft."

" ... Jamie Vermilyea ... Commands the zone with diverse repertoire--fastball, slider, splitter, changeup, cutter "


02 December,  2005

    Dominican - WilyMo Pena 2-5, .407 ... Nelson Cruz MIL 2-3, .342 ... Jose Capellan MIL, back in a starting role, 5 7 2 2 1 2, 1.64 ... Joel Guzman LAD 1-3, 9th double, .314 ... Felix Pie CHN 2-3, double, triple, .226  Venezuela - Ronnie Cedeno CHN 3-4, .341 ... Luke Scott HOU 3-3, 7th homer, 2 walks, .439 ... Chad Gaudin TOR, might want to move him up on your draft list, 8 7 0 0 2 5, 1.68   Mexico - amazing, Fernando Valenzuela (or perhaps a grandson of the famed Dodger phenom) 3rd straight win, 6 8 4 3 1 2

    Rule 5 draft ... some familiar names available ... Rafael Rodriguez RHP LAA ... Brooks Conrad 2B HOU ... Lou Palmisano C MIL ... Bobby Brownlie RHP CHN ... Brandon Sing 1B CHN ... Josh Hamilton TB OF ... Jason Pridie TB OF ... Jared Ball OF ARZ ... Jonathan Figueroa LHP LAD ... Mike Megrew LHP LAD ... Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B CLE ... Ryan Mulhern 1B CLE ...Nick Ungs RHP FLO ... Jake Blalock OF PHI ... Drew Meyer SS TEX ... Vince Sinisi IF TEX ... John Hudgins RHP TEX ... Kevin Howard 2B CIN ... Richie Gardner RHP CIN ...Chris Gruler RHP CIN ... Chin-Lung Lo RHP COL ... Colt Griffin RHP KC ... Mike Stodolka LHP KC ... Mitch Maier OF KC ... Bronson Sardinha OF NYA

    John Sickels, in a piece at FutureAngels, previews his 2006 prospect book (orders now being taken, see link below) with notes on a couple of LAA kids :

" ...  Brandon Wood’s 2004 season was a bit disappointing, marred by a late-season slump. But his 2005 numbers are so good that there isn’t much of a point doing an in-depth analysis. I mean, hitter’s league or not, the guy collected 101 extra-base hits. Let’s see. . .OPS +30 percent, SEC +65. . .it doesn’t get better than that ...  range at shortstop is only average, but he has a strong arm, is reliable, and has a good chance to remain at shortstop as he moves up. At worst he’ll be an excellent third baseman. Oh, yeah, scouts also like his work ethic and personality. He’s polished for his age. And did I mention that he hit 53 doubles and 43 home runs? There is a chance that Wood’s batting average and OBP may take a bit of a hit in Double-A and/or Triple-A, but given his superb bat speed, I don’t think he will face any real challenges until he reaches the majors. When he was in high school, scouts compared him to Derek Jeter. Now they compare him to Cal Ripken. Grade A."

" ...  Kendry Morales had a solid debut in North America, destroying the Cal League, then knocking the Texas League around in August after a slow start in July ...  has power to all fields. He is pitchable, however, in the sense that if you change speeds properly you can get him out, but he will make you pay for any mistakes. His only statistical flaw is a below average walk rate, but his strikeout rate is good for a power guy, and I’m certain his power will carry forward to the majors. He should be a 30+ homer guy. I’m not sure about his batting average and OBP ...  I could see him settling into the .250-.270 range if he doesn’t make a few adjustments with his approach. The other problem is defense; he’s very slow. His arm is strong, but his glove is made of iron at first base, and he lacks the range for the outfield. Grade B+."

Order here.

    Even with his haul from the WSox, Pat Gillick looks to have some work ahead rebuilding the PHI farm.  John Franco continues his outstanding work with his ranking of the Phillies' kids in his latest report at SportsBlurb .  Pitchers take the top two slots :

" ... Cole Hamels ...  the best pitcher than most people have never seen, since he has only pitched 51 innings over the last two seasons ...  During his minor league career, Hamels has worked a total of 152 innings, and he has struck out 208 batters while walking just 62 and allowing an astonishingly low total of 88 hits. When healthy, he has a fastball in the 88-91 range that can get to 93 and features great sinking and fading action. Hamels also has a plus-plus changeup and and curveball that should be a plus pitch as he gains experience, and excellent poise on the mound that will hopefully translate into better behavior off the field. The injury factor is a strong consideration when assessing Hamels’ future, but there are very few pitchers in the minor leagues with better stuff."

" ... Scott Mathieson ...  pitched well at High-A Clearwater this season, but he improved his stock tremendously with a strong performance in the AFL. Even though he posted a 6.92 ERA in 26 innings, he struck out 36 batters and walked just 11 while facing some of the toughest hitters in the minor leagues, and drew raves from scouts around the league. Mathieson is a power righty with a fastball that sits in the 92-94 range and touches 96 and a hard slider that has the potential to be a great out pitch in the major leagues. He also has a changeup that he can locate well ... similar to Ryan Madson, in that he could be a useful starter but could also provide a power arm out of the bullpen if the Phillies’ short term needs are greater in that area. His ceiling as a starter is a decent No. 2 starter or a good No. 3 starter."

    Michael Laureano, Diamond Futures, with the team-by-team Top 10s in the books, moves on to his rankings by position.  Up first is first.  Prince Fielder tops the field.  In what appears to be a fairly weak group, it's Prince, Daric Barton, Ryan Howard, Conor Jackson, and Cesar Nicolas ARZ 1-5.


01 December,  2005

    Yikes, December already !  Dominican - Joel Guzman LAD, listed at SS this time, 1-3, 5th homer, walk,  .317 ... Andy Marte ATL 1-4, .222 ... Nelson Cruz MIL 2-4, 7th homer, .329 ... WilyMo Pena CIN 3rd homer, .409

Mexico - Todd LInden SF 3-4, .220 ... Adrian Gonzalez TEX (in RF) 2-4, double, .329 ...  Ben Francisco OF SF, might be his career game, 5-5, 3 homers, 6 RBI, .306 ... Howie Clark 3-5, double, homer, .367

    Troop movements ... CHA - resigned Paul Konerko ... PHI - signed Julio Santana ... NYA - signed catcher Kelly Stinnett ...

    It's Homer Bailey atop the CIN Top 10 at Baseball Amercia.  Outfield Jay Bruce ranks No.2, ahead lefty Travis Wood

JD Arney, Red Reporter, responds to the BA picks :

" ... There are three players on this list that terrify me, mostly because if they're the best the Reds have to offer then things are really really bad. They are B.J. Szymanski at 4, Miguel Perez at 7, and Joey Votto at 9. Szymanski has great tools, blah, blah, blah, but he was hurt for much of last season and still hasn't done much of anything in professional baseball. Yeah, I suppose he's a prospect, but it's not good that he's considered by BA (and the Reds) to be the fourth best prospect in the organization. Miguel Perez just flat out sucks with the stick. I don't care how great he is defensively, he's not ever going to be more than a backup hitting the way he does. And Joey Votto just had a very rough season that should have pushed him out of the top 10. In a better franchise it would have."

    Jonathan Mayo reviews the Texas system in the latest of the team-by-team reports at MiLB.com.

" ... Joaquin Arias ...  more than handled himself as a 20-year-old shortstop in the Double-A Texas League ...  hit .315 to tie for the organizational lead. He also stole 20 bases (down from 30 in 2004), while setting a career high with a .423 slugging percentage (36 extra-base hits). Defensively, he made 29 errors in 118 games, but that's an improvement over the 40 he made the year prior."

" ... Ian Kinsler ...  Making the move to the right side of second base, Kinsler hit just .274 for the year in Triple-A, and that was thanks largely to a .336 average in August. At the same time, though, Kinsler showed consistent power and run production throughout the season, finishing with 23 homers and 94 RBIs."

" ... John Danks ...  second full season kind of mirrored his first, with him dominating one level, then finding the jump up a little more challenging after initial success. That being said, the 20-year-old southpaw finished third in the organization with 138 strikeouts and a respectable 4.38 combined ERA (especially when considering he made his home in the hitter-friendly Californa and Texas Leagues). He had a 2.50 ERA and .228 batting average against with Bakersfield. He then had a 3.89 ERA in his first month with Frisco before getting knocked around in July and August. He's still way ahead of the learning curve and looks to be staying put after having his name mentioned in the Josh Beckett trade rumors."

    Over at MinorLeagueBall, John Sickels reviews his 2005 Texas picks :

" ... 1) Thomas Diamond ... Pitched brilliantly for Class A Bakersfield, 8-0, 1.99 in 14 starts with 101/31 K/BB in 81 innings, but struggled after promotion to Double-A Frisco, going 5-4, 5.35 in 14 starts with 68/38 K/BB in 69 innings. Walk rate increased after promotion, and velocity reportedly down a bit from earlier in the year. Still very interesting but stock has dropped."

" ... 4) Juan Dominguez ...  4-6, 4.22 in 70 innings for the Rangers, with 45/25 K/BB. Component ratios need to improve in order for him to sustain success."

" ... 11) Eric Hurley ... 12-6, 3.77 in 28 starts for Class A Clinton, 152/59 K/BB in 155 innings. Very solid performance. Needs to improve his command a bit more, but that is nitpicking at this point. Fine prospect whose stock has improved and was already very good."

    Michael Laureano, Diamond Futures, wraps up his team-by-team prospect reports selecting Ryan Zimmerman for the top slot.  Michael now moves on to his picks, position-by-position, before checking in with a Top 100 just before Christmas. 

    Alex Wang, InsideTheDugout, looks at the Dodgers' kids - Billingsley, Guzman, LaRoche 1-2-3.

" ... 4- Russell Martin ...  has taken off and become one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Martin possesses an amazing approach and plate discipline. Martin walks more than he strikes out and could become an on-base machine in the major leagues. Right now he has gap power. Martin can also steal a base if pitchers get lazy. Martin is also an above average catcher and owns a plus arm. He is still a little raw defensively, but he should be fine given a few more repetitions. There are still questions on how much power Martin will hit for. Given his approach, he should be able to hit at least 15 HRs annually. Martin has the chance to be the Dodger’s catcher for a long, long time."

" ... 5-Matt Kemp ...   established himself as a legitimate prospect. With an intriguing power-speed combination, Kemp had a 20-20 season in the Florida State League and has 30-30 potential. While Kemp had no problem hitting High A pitchers, he will have to adjust his approach to handle advanced pitching. Kemp is very athletic and is able to handle centerfield. If he continues to grow, he may have to move over to a corner outfield spot."


30 November,  2005

    Dominican -- Joel Guzman LAD, have to assume it's an error, but listed at catcher, 0-4, 2 Ks, .316

    Troop movements ... STL - signed Dennis Tankersley to a minor league contract ...

    John Franco, SportsBlurb, moves on to a suddenly not-so-attractive Mets farm. However, the No. 1 guy still rates highly :

" ... Lastings Milledge ...  a five-tool player and a potential all-star, but his ability to be a plus center fielder is not as helpful given the presence of Carlos Beltran. Milledge does have the arm and the bat to be a good right fielder, and he showed good maturity for a 20-year old player who spent half the year in Double-A ... an aggressive hitter with a very quick bat ... should be a 25-30 home run hitter when he matures ... profiles as a good No. 5 hitter in the Mets’ future lineup. The only thing standing in the way of a promotion to the big leagues is the need for another half-season of minor league at-bats in order to improve his plate discipline."

" ... 3. Gaby Hernandez ... pitched extremely well at Low-A Hagerstown, posting a 2.43 ERA and striking out 99 batters in 92.1 innings of work. He held batters to an amazing .179 average ...  earned him a promotion to High-A St. Lucie, where he struggled to post a record of 2-5, 5.74 in 42.3 innings. At this point it is hard to say if his problems were due to his age (19) or his shortage of overpowering stuff. Hernandez’ fastball is just average, sitting in the 89-92 range, but he spots it will in the strike zone. He has a plus curveball that he uses for his out pitch, but needs to throw it more aggressively. Hernandez’ feel for pitching is advanced for his age."

    Stephen Smith presents his final Angels' Top 10 at Future Angels (the site is to close, unfortunately, at the end of the year). In a stacked system, Stephen goes with Brandon Wood, Jeff Mathis, Howie Kendrick 1-2-3.

" ...  Brandon Wood ...   set the Angels' record for most homers in one season by a minor leaguer, hitting 43 in the California League ... For good measure, he went on to the Arizona Fall League where he broke the league record for homers in one season, hitting 14 ... Wood first appeared on this site's top prospect list in November 2003; I compared him to a young Cal Ripken, and I still think that comparison is valid ...  still has a few holes in his offensive game, most notably an occasional tendency to chase sliders he can't hit, but as he gets to see more and more advanced pitching he'll have the opportunity to learn how to adjust. His power swing is quick and effortless ... there's not much to tinker with, just his pitch selection. On the defensive side, Cal League managers chose him the circuit's top shortstop; Erick Aybar is the more gifted defender but Wood has adequate range and a good enough arm for the position ... He could use a full year of seasoning at Triple-A, and if all goes well take over the Anaheim shortstop job in 2007."

" ... Jeff Mathis ...  recovered nicely from last year's second half swoon ... Jeff's .499 SLG ranked him #1 among PCL catchers; his .276 AVG was #2 to Round Rock's 28-year old Royce Huffman (.284), and his .340 OBP was also second ... The consensus is that Mathis is "major-league ready" defensively; he'll be an athletic upgrade to Molina, whose chronic hamstring problems left him with limited mobility behind the plate and slow as a snail on the basepaths ...  Mathis brings natural leadership skills to the field and is likely to emerge as the team's true leader within a few years. His typical major league offense within a couple years will probably look similar to what Jason Varitek has posted over the years for the Red Sox; one critical difference being that Varitek didn't even play professionally until he signed at age 23 and didn't earn a big-league job until he was 26, so Mathis is three years ahead of him ...    should he earn the starting catcher job in spring training he'll be an early contender for the 2006 AL Rookie of the Year award."

    John Sickels reviews his 2005 Blue Jays & Giants  prospect lists :

" ...  2) David Purcey ... Sound season, pitched well in A-ball then went 4-3, 2.93 in eight starts in Double-A, with a 45/25 K/BB in 43 innings. Very good stuff, still working on his command. Might be ready in the second half. Keep close track of his K/BB ratios."

" ... 4) Josh Banks ...  8-12, 3.83 in 27 starts for Double-A New Hampshire, 145/11 K/BB in 162 innings. Absolutely outstanding command and control, just 11 walks in a full season! If anything, his control may be too good, and there is some Zach Greinke-like risk here."

" ... 9) Dustin McGowan ...  Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. Posted 6.35 ERA in 45 major league innings, but if you saw him pitch his natural talent was obvious. Even slight improvement in his command will make him a dominator."

" ... 1) Matt Cain ...  10-5, 4.39 in 26 starts for Triple-A Fresno, with 176/73 K/BB in just 146 innings. Posted 2.33 ERA in 7 starts for the Giants. He needs to sharpen his command, but if his health holds up he could be an ace."

" ... 3) Eddy Martinez-Esteve ...  .313/.427/.524 with 44 doubles, 17 homers, 89 walks in 479 at-bats for Class A San Jose.. I am very confident in his bat. However, his defense has deteriorated from bad to dreadful according to reports."

    Matt Jacovina, WarmOctoberNights, moves on to the ATL Top 10 and likes Andy Marte as the top dog over Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Not too shabby at Nos. 3-4 either :

" ... 3. Chuck James ...  a difficult player to try and project thanks to his unique skill set: he’s a lefty with a good, but not overpowering, fastball, a tremendous change up, and uncanny control of both. What this lead to in 2005 was a lot of swings and misses and weak pop ups ...  unless James can develop his slider into an out pitch, his talented change may be relegated to a 4th starter role."

" ... 4. Elvis Andrus  ...  17 year old ...  got the raw athletic ability to become a plus defender at one of baseball’s most important positions, and a hitting approach that’s very advanced for his age. In the next 4 or 5 years, he’ll have plenty of time to refine his swing, and further develop his impressive command of the strike zone ...  as long as Andrus remains focused and healthy, it’s hard to peg him as anything less than a future starter. That ceiling of his? A potential perennial all-star."

    Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts, on why the WSox and Brewers are better off with Lyle Overbay in Chicago to replace Paul Konerko.

    Kevin T. Czerwinski  with notes on TB prospects at MiLB.com, including some of the lesser lights :

" ...   Jeff Niemann ... spent half the season on the shelf with shoulder soreness, trying to work his way back to the mound. Niemann finally did, splitting the season between Class A Visalia and Double-A Montgomery and was merely average in 11 games (eight starts). He went 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA in a combined 30 2/3 innings. He fanned 42 and walked only 15, but the organization had him on a pitch count and is clearly taking baby steps with one of its prized prospects."

" ...  Jason Hammel ...  the Southern League couldn't hold him after he went 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts (three complete games). He started 10 more games for Durham, going 3-2 with a 4.12 ERA. At 6-foot-6, he's an imposing presence on the mound. He mixes in a decent changeup and solid curveball with an above-average fastball. He'll start the year in Durham but should get a look in Tampa before long."

" ...  Reid Brignac ...  though he didn't tear up the Midwest League, he held his own. Brignac hit .264 in 512 at-bats and drove in 61 runs, but he also fanned 131 times, displaying the lack of patience common in young players. The organization would like to see him trim that number and beef up some on his walk totals. Defensively, his 31 errors were third-most among Midwest League shortstops."

    Dayn Perry, FoxSports, on the Dodgers system -- good, he says, but not in the upper tier :

" ... Joel Guzman ...  an outstanding power prospect, but he lacks plate discipline and his defense is such that he'll probably wind up at an outfield corner. Such a position switch will raise the bar for him offensively. He's likened to Juan Gonzalez in many circles. That remains to be seen, but Guzman's ceiling will be meaningfully lower if he's manning a corner slot rather than shortstop. He's the best prospect in the system, but he's not without his weaknesses."

" ... Matt Kemp ...  coming off a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, and so far he looks like an impressive power prospect. Last season, he slugged .569 at Vero Beach and tallied 27 homers. Kemp also shows good speed on the bases and an ability to hit for average. However, Kemp does need to improve his eye at the plate, and it's never wise to get too fired up about prospects who have yet to play in the high minors."

" ... Chad Billingsley ...  In past seasons, he struggled badly with his control ... but he made strides on that front in '05. He also finished second in the Southern League in strikeouts. Going forward, he needs to prove his improved control is sustainable. He also shows fly-ball tendencies, which could really hurt him next season at hitter-friendly Las Vegas. Billingsley's got tremendous stuff, but there are many ways for a young pitcher to squander his promise."


29 November,  2005

    Dominican - Joel Guzman LAD 2-4, .330 ... Rafael Soriano SEA 2/3 3 1 1 0 0, 6.59 ... Felix Pie CHN 0-3, .203 ... Edwin Encarnacion CIN 2-4, 3rd homer, .277 ... Tony Pena Jr. 1-3, 3rd homer, .256

Venezuela - Yurendell Decaster PIT (one-time Rule 5 pickup)  continues an amazing campaign, 1-2, 15th homer, 3 walks, .354 ... Ian Snell PIT 5 5 1 1 2 3, 3.86 ... Jerry Owens CHA 2-4, homer, .386

    Troop movements ... OAK - signed Esteban Loaiza ... TOR - signed  B.J. Ryan ... NYN - signed Billy Wagner, acquired Tike Redman from PIT ... PIT - released Michael Restovich ... SF - acquired Jeff Miller off waivers from PIT ...

    One more young gun on the shelf ... this time a top catching prospect :

" ... Taylor Teagarden ... the Rangers' third-round pick in the June draft, underwent Tommy John ligament transplant surgery on his right (throwing) elbow last week, general manager Jon Daniels said Sunday. Daniels said Teagarden should be able to hit early next season, and it is hoped he will catch before the end of the year ...  Teagarden hit .281 with seven homers and 16 RBIs in 31 games for rookie-level Spokane after signing."  (Dallas Morning News)

    Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld.com, offers part two of his review of the Arizona Fall League prospects, including:

" ... Guillermo Quiroz ...  didn’t make his season debut until mid-July after he hurt his throwing shoulder in spring training and then had surgery to repair a collapsed lung. The Blue Jays gave him a brief look in September and then had him play in the AFL as they try to determine whether he’s ready to split time with Gregg Zaun next season. Quiroz won’t hit for average, but he’s a fine defender with the ability to hit the ball out of the park. While he’d probably benefit most from another half season in Triple-A, he shouldn’t be a liability if he’s needed at the start of next year."

" ... Wes Bankston  ...   the converted right fielder is now firmly established as one of baseball’s top first-base prospects. He has 30-homer power and a fair batting eye, though he didn’t show it in the AFL. What remains to be seen is whether he’ll be a .270 or a .290 hitter in the majors. "

" ... Andy LaRoche  ...  the Dodgers have two potential All-Star third basemen on the way up in LaRoche and Joel Guzman. Guzman, who played shortstop alongside LaRoche in Double-A last season, could end up in right field. LaRoche ...  is staying put. He has 35-40 homer power and the skills to be a plus defender at the hot corner. Perhaps he won’t have the on-base skills to be an All-Star as a major leaguer, but that shouldn’t stop him from becoming a top fantasy third baseman in two or three years."

" ... Alex Gordon  ...  The new hope at third base for the Royals. Maybe. After Justin Huber got hurt, Gordon made his pro debut in the AFL as a first baseman. The Royals are planning to move him back to third to start next year, but they’re not sure he might not end up at first for the long-term. Gordon was a quality defender at the University of Nebraska and I believe he can resemble an average third baseman in the majors."

    Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, with some views on kids in the SEA system :

" ...   Jeff Clement ...  the M's can't complain how Clement, taken No. 3, fared in his first summer as a pro ... The USC product hit .319 with a .908 OPS in 30 Midwest League games, then drove in nine runs in 10 games (despite hitting just .150) in the playoffs. Clement capped things off by a trip to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .269 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 67 at-bats."

" ...  Matt Tuiasosopo ...  After a stirring debut in which he hit .316 and slugged .534, Tuisasopo came down to earth a bit in his first taste of full-season ball. Spending the year with Wisconsin at age 19, the third-rounder hit .276 and slugged .386. He struck out 96 times in 409 at-bats and put up a respectable .359 OBP ... With Betancourt seemingly entrenched, a position switch for Tuiasosopo could be forthcoming."

" ... Wladimir Balentien ...  really started putting it together this year with Inland Empire. Although he struck out 160 times, he posted his highest batting average to date, .291, while leading the organization with 25 homers and driving in 93 runs. He slugged .553, thanks to a total of 71 extra-base hits (38 doubles and eight triples)."

    Baseball America presents the Cubbies Top 10 with Felix Pie atop the list.  2005 draft pick Mark Pawelek is the runner-up ahed of Ronnie Cedeno

    Michael Laureano, Diamond Futures, posts his ranking of the Texas system - Thomas Diamond ranks No. 1, ahead of Adrian Gonzalez and Eric HurleyJohn Danks won the No. 4 spot.

    Jan Ramirez, InsideTheDugout, projects optimism on the future of Howie Kendrick LAA :

" ...  Kendrick is developing into the best pure hitter in the Angels system. He is blessed with amazing hand eye coordination and quick hands, that allows him to hit the ball hard all over the diamond, showing the potential to hit .300 or better ... while providing 15 to 25 homeruns out of the 2 or 3 spot in the batting order ...  lack of plate discipline worries some observers ...  You can’t argue with the results however as his numbers are just too hard to ignore ... continued his torrid hitting all through the fall, leading the Arizona Fall League in hits with 46 while hitting .380. For all of Kendrick’s hitting prowess, his defense and inconsistency with the glove is what could keep him in the minors for a little bit longer even though his bat is major league ready. Muscle-bound and thick, Kendrick lacks the athleticism and quickness that many great defensive middle infielders possess, his grinder type defensive actions, along with at best average range and hands makes me question his ability to play the position ...  his bat at a position like 2nd base is just too valuable to give up on. Howie looks to be the future at 2nd base ...  could be a perennial all-star and batting champion for many years to come at the major league level."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, on a pair of guys on the move - Yusmeiro Petit and Anibal Sanchez :

" ...  Petit is a solid prospect, with a fine track record and very good control. I am giving him a Grade B+ in the 2006 book. I think he needs some additional Triple-A time, and he doesn't throw hard enough for me to project him as a staff ace, but given his youth and history I find it hard to rate him any less than B+."

" ... Sanchez: Of Boston's Big Three pitching prospects (Sanchez, Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester), Sanchez is the one I like the least in the short run, granted I still gave him a B+ and rate him very highly, among the best RHP prospects in the game. I think he is a year away from being ready to help, and like Ramirez he should not be rushed."


28 November,  2005

    Dominican - WilyMo Pena CIN 4-5, walk, homer & 2-5, homer, .438  ... Tony Pena Jr. 2-5, triple & 2-4, homer, .253 ... Erick Aybar LAA 4-6, double & 4-6, double, .302 ... Felix Pie CHN 0-4, .211 ... Wilson Betemit ATL 3-5, 6th homer, .327  Venezuela - Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4, double, 3 RBI, .337 ... Wil Ledezma DET 2 2 2 2 4 1, 3.18 ... Jerry Owens CHA 2-4, 2-5, .382 ... Michael Restovich PIT 3-4, 6th homer, .346 ... Luke Scott HOU 2-4, 4th homer, .400

    At the BaseballThinkFactory Dan Szymborski adds to his 2006 player forecasts with the posting of the MIL predictions.  

Prince Fielder looks like a good buy with a forecast of .268 .352 .482, 25 homers.  Rickie Weeks isn't too shabby either, .252 .350 .434, 19 homers. 

    Ian Stewart retains his hold atop the COL prospect chart in David Regan's latest minor league update at RotoAmerica

" ...  possesses a very good combination of plate discipline and great raw power and should post monster numbers (40+ homeruns) once he gets to Coors Field. Defensively Stewart is much improved since he was drafted, and now profiles as at least an average 3B, which is a testament to his work ethic."

" ... #4 Troy Tulowitski ... flashed some solid tools in his debut. It would have been an even better debut had he not been diagnosed in early August with a torn quad. Seems like the SS position in Colorado is cursed? Tulowitzki flashes enough skills at SS and has shown advanced ability at the plate as a college draftee, that he’ll likely either force a position change for Clint Barmes or move off SS himself. For now, the Rockies will keep him at short and let him return to the CAL league to open 2006."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, reviews his 2005 FLO picks :

" ... 1) Jeremy Hermida ...  .293/.457/.518 in Double-A, then .293/.383/.634 in 23 games in the majors. I don't think he will slug .600 in a full season right away, but he has star written all over him."

" ... 4) Jason Vargas ...  5-5, 4.03 in 13 starts for the Marlins after being promoted from Double-A, with 59/31 K/BB in 74 innings. Held his own in the majors with just three starts of Double-A under his belt. The Marlins have the foundation of another strong pitching staff."

" ... 11) Josh Johnson ... 12-4, 3.87 in 26 starts for Carolina, 113/50 K/BB in 140 innings. Another solid pitching prospect, but I think he will need some Triple-A before being truly ready for the majors."

    Jason Collette, RotoJunkie, is zipping through reviews of his 2005 pre-season picks.  The Mets, Phils & Nats the latest up :

" ... Gavin Floyd  ... 2005 could not have gone any worse for a high prospect. Floyd was terrible in AAA with a 6.16 ERA, a .363 OBP, and a 1.5 strikeout to walk ration. It got worse in his 26 major league innings as he walked 16 and allowed 5 homers. The reports talked about very inconsistent mechanics and the numbers certainly back that up."

" ... Scott Mathieson ... has a big time arm and used it to strike out 118 in 121 innings holding High A batters to a .244 OBA and a .297 OBP."

" ... Clint Everts ... spent the season recovering from his 2004 TJ surgery so his numbers were a complete wash. The key thing is he’s healthy and look for a strong comeback in 2006."

" ...  Kory Casto ... had the best season in the organization hitting .290/.392/.510 in 500 High A at bats. The Nationals have talked about trying him at second base or left field due to Zimmerman’s presence. At 23, Casto was a bit old for High A ball but it was an impressive season none the less."

    The folks at Inside The Dugout doing some nice work (although not easy to reach any of the blog's principals).  Already they've posted Top 10s for all the AL teams and are now working through the NL squads. These lists now included in our Top 10 list (along with the picks from Warm October Nights).  Inside's latest team post is the Padres, where Josh Barfield tops the chart :

" ... Josh Barfield ...  After a disappointing 2004 season, Barfield showed a lot of improvement in 2005, though, it should be taken into context since the Pacific Coast League is one of the better hitting leagues ...   at times Barfield tries to hit for too much power. Because of this, Barfield strikes out too much. Barfield has also drastically improved his defense. He will likely be able to stay at second base. With Mark Loretta under contract for 2006, Barfield may have to repeat AAA. If his approach is improved, he has a chance to be an all star second baseman."

" ... Cesar Carrillo ... considered to be one of the most polished players in this year’s draft, and he proved why with his pro debut. Carrillo was able to hold his own in AA striking out more than a batter an inning. He may even make his major league debut next year. Carrillo throws a low-90s fastball with good movement and has two solid secondary pitches with his curve and changeup. Carrillo could add some weight to his frame. He has the upside of a #2 starter. Look for Carrillo to start next year in AAA and be the first one called up if any pitcher gets injured."

    Diamond Futures zips through the Top 10s adding the Tampa Bay and Seattle lists. 

    Many thanks to Rob Dorsey to chasing down some new prospect sites and reminding me of others.  Much appreciated.
   

 
 

    
Rookie Reports Archive :

2004 -- Oct 04-17  Oct 18-31  Nov 01-14   Nov 15-28   Nov 29-Dec 12   Dec 13-Dec 31 

2005 -- Jan 01-16  Jan 17-30  Jan 31-Feb 13  Feb 14-27  Feb 28-Mar 13  Mar 14-27  Mar 28-Apr 10  Apr 11-24  
April 25-May 01  May 02-08  May 09-15  May 16-22  May 23-29  May 30-June 05  June 06-12  June 13-19
June 20-26   June 27-July 03   July 04-10   July 11-17   July 18-24   July 25-31  Aug 01-07  Aug 08-14   Aug 15-21
Aug 22-28  Aug 29-Sept 04  Sept 05-11  Sept 12-18  Sept 19-Oct 9  Oct 10-23  Oct 24-30  Oct 31-Nov 06 
Nov 07-13  Nov 14-27  Nov 28-

2004 Minor League Stats 1  (Hitters by OPS by Classification OBA SLG SBs Errors)
2004 Minor League Stats 2 (Pitchers by ERA by Classification Ks & Hitters by position)

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