Rookies 2006

                                                                                                                           Pitching Line = IP H R ER BB SO
 


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07-08 January, 2006

    Dominican playoffs ... Erick Aybar LAA 3-5, triple, 3 RBI ... Joaquin Benoit TEX 3 3 2 2 0 4.  Venezuela playoffs - Wilfredo Ledezma DET 5 1 0 0 3 4 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-5

    Troop movements ... MIL - acquired Corey Koskie from TOR for Brian Wolfe ... KC -  designated Kyle Snyder and Devon Lowery for assignment ... CHN - Bobby Brownlie, Brandon Sing among the NRIs ... LAA - Brandon Wood, Jered Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Michael Collins among the NRIs ... COL - signed Byung-Hyun Kim, acquired Josh Wilson from FLO ... PHI - claimed Josh Kroeger off waivers from ARZ ... BAL - claimed Brian Burres off waivers from SF ... NYA - Ben Davis among the NRIs ...  ARZ - signed top 2005 draft pick Justin Upton ...  BOS - signed JT Snow

" ... Two years after leaving the Gophers to sign with the Twins, Glen Perkins has a big league spring training invite. Perkins, 22, will likely get a brief taste of big league camp before heading back to the minors. A first-round pick in the 2004 draft (No. 22 overall), he advanced to Class AA New Britain last season."

" ... [Jered] Weaver heads to camp more than just a hopeful as he will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation primarily with Hector Carrasco, Kevin Gregg, Joe Saunders and Chris Bootcheck. The Angels' first pick of the 2004 draft, Weaver was a combined 7-4 with a 3.91 ERA in 15 starts last year over two Minor League stops. The right-hander also made a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. Wood led all Minor Leaguers by hitting 43 homers at Class A Rancho Cucamonga last season. He also shared the California League lead with 115 RBIs and was tops in the circuit with 50 doubles, 109 runs scored and a .667 slugging percentage. Selected first by the Angels in 2003, Wood hit 14 homers to set a new AFL mark this past fall." (MLB.com)

    ARZ gets its No. 1 draft pick. Justin Upton adds to an already deep D'backs farm system :

" ... The deal includes a $6.1 million signing bonus payable over five years, the largest-ever sum for a drafted player on a minor-league contract. ...  Arizona announced the agreement Friday and said Upton will be introduced at a news conference Monday. "This is a significant step for our organization and we look forward to seeing this talented young man in uniform," Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said."  (USA Today)

    Andy Marte moves from No. 1 in ATL to No. 1 in BOS as Baseball America unveils its top 10 for the Red Sox.  SPs Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon ranked 2-3, RP Craig Hansen was 4th ahead of 2B/SS Dustin Pedroia.

    Aaron Gleeman, RotoWorld, highlights SEA's Kenji Jojima and Jason Kubel MIN among the AL rooks to watch in 2006 :

" ...   Jojima is a rookie by MLB standards, but he is actually a 30-year-old veteran with 11 years of big-league experience over in Japan. One of the best catchers in Japanese baseball history ...  .299 career batting average and 211 homers in 1,117 games, including five straight 20-homer seasons and a monster .330-34-119 year in 2003. Of course, those big numbers deflate pretty quickly once you begin to adjust for American competition ..  he looks like a .275 hitter with 15-homer power. That’s still very valuable in a catcher, which is why he could end up being one of this season’s best fantasy sleepers."

" ... The Twins seemed prepared to hand Jason Kubel a starting job heading into 2005, but he suffered a massive knee injury while playing in the Arizona Fall League and ended up missing the entire season. There is still some uncertainty surrounding his status ... Assuming Kubel is close to healthy, he’s almost lock to play regularly for the offense-starved Twins. He was the team’s minor-league player of the year in 2004, hitting .347 with 24 homers and 17 steals between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors."

    Scott Rex, OnDeck, offers his picks as the best of the STL farm - Anthony Reyes, Mark McCormick, Colby Rasmus 1-2-3.


06 January, 2006


    We also pocket a little change through the Canadian sales of John Sickels' Baseball Prospect Book.  My Gaedel League colleague Barry Fader is the Canadian distributor of the book and kindly contributes a portion of the book sales to our web fund (in fact, I'd be surprised if Barry himself made enough for a cup of coffee last year after dropping his spare change in our battered tin cup).  This will be the 11th annual prospect book for John.  It's one of the season's most anxiously awaited baseball publications.  It ships in early February with pre-orders now being taken.  Order here.

    Dominican playoffs - Daniel Cabrera BAL 6 3 2 2 4 6 ... Erick Aybar LAA 1-4, double ... Hanley Ramirez BOS, defensive replacement in LF

Venezuela playoffs - Asdrubal Cabrera SEA 3-3, double, homer ... Tony Armas WAS 5 4 0 0 1 2

    Troop movements ... NYA - signed Miguel Cairo ... PHI - signed Ryan Franklin ... PIT - signed Brandon Duckworth, Scott Strickland to minor league contracts ...

    Ah, one of the highlights of the early New Year - John Sickels' Top 50 lists! For those who have already ordered the 2006 edition, John provides email lists of his Top 50 hitters and his Top 50 pitching prospects while folks wait for the book to arrive. There are not many surprises among the hitters (perhaps a No. 4 ranking for Brandon Wood), but Justin Verlander as the top pitching prospect and the inclusion of Jason Hirsh in the top 10 might fuel a little debate. The 2006 Baseball Prospect Book is nearing completion (it should be ready to ship in about a month).  Click the link above for ordering information.

    It's Adam Miller atop the CLE prospect chart in Matt Jacovina's review at WarmOctoberNights :

" ... Before tearing a ligament in his elbow, Miller was one of the top right handed pitching prospects in baseball. Afterwards, he’s still amongst the best ...  spent his limited playing time last year regaining his control and is primed for a huge 2006. With a potential plus-plus fastball and slider, he has the highest ceiling of all Indians prospects. He needs at least another full season in the minors before being big-league ready, but if he stays healthy ....  Sabathia needs to be wary of his job as the Indians’ ace."

" ... 2. Jeremy Sowers ...  the Arthur to Miller’s Buster Baxter: he’s plain and not as electric, but he’s steady and dependable. His repertoire of pitches is diverse and effective, and will make Sowers a big league pitcher before the end of the season. Without overpowering stuff, it’s hard to peg him as a future ace, but the consistency he’s about to bring to the tribe’s staff will be tremendously valuable."

    Mike Hindman has begun his annual TEX prospect reviews at the Newberg Report.  The tag end of the pitching prospects first up.

    Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, on a pair of possible 2006 MLB youngsters :

" ...  Yusmeiro Petit ...  pitching well in winter ball (5-1, 2.01 ERA, 8 BB, 43 K's in 49 IP) is a nice thing, but it doesn't mean that much to me. It might mean the Marlins see him as being big-league ready sooner rather than later. The question with him will be the second time he goes around the league. I can see him doing well the first time around, but then we'll have to see how he adjusts. He doesn't overpower people, he relies a bit on deception. He's kind of sneaky fast. I think he's going to get knocked around a little bit when people see him some more. I'd like to see him get some time in Triple-A. Of course, pitching in Albuquerque won't be a walk in the park and could toughen him up a little."

" ... Ian Kinsler ...  Is he a .320 hitter? No. But if you can get a guy who might hit 20 homers and give you 20 steals at second base? I'm all for it. And I see him winning that job. I know there will be other guys in camp ... but I think it's Kinsler's job to lose. And I think he won't lose it. He's shown enough making the switch from shortstop to play second. Offensively, he'll do fine. He's just a hitter. Period. Give him a little bit of an adjustment period -- he started a little slowly in Triple-A last year -- but the power numbers were always there. He was a very productive hitter even though he hit just .274. He only struck out 89 times and walked 53 times. Those are some good numbers."

    At the BaseballThinkFactory, Dan Szymborski has projections posted for the Devil Rays and he sees some moderate success for the kids in 2006 : 

      Name       P  AVG  OBP  SLG  G  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI BB  K  SB CS
  TB Upton      ss .275 .354 .422 140 516 88 142 26  4 14  65 61 126 30 13
  TB Young      rf .271 .314 .434 135 509 77 138 20  3 19  75 26 106 20  9
  TB Dukes#     cf .247 .313 .394 114 396 61  98 18  2 12  51 34  85 16  9
  TB Bankston   1b .244 .319 .425 111 381 55  93 19  1 16  57 38  89  4  2

    David Luciani, Baseball Notebook, continues to respond to questions about his top prospect list, especially the exclusion of second baseman Howie Kendrick from the 2006 list :

" ... The reason for the big drop is not because a hundred new players moved ahead of him. Rather, it's related to that projected walk total, a concern I expressed about Kendrick a year ago but which has now compounded. His walk ability did not improve at the rate it should have based on typical players of his age and experience going into 2005. He walked a grand total of 20 times in 469 minor league at bats in 2005 compared to 12 walks in 313 at bats in 2004. I would have expected to see an improvement to 35 or 40 walks based on the competition he faced and the amount of playing time he had in 2005. The rate of improvement was far too low and while he hit for a great average, this is now of major rather than minor concern. Some readers ask me why my prospect lists change so much from year to year and Kendrick serves as a strong example of why this is the case. With young players, even the most seemingly insignificant of developments, or lack thereof, can cause a player to move dramatically in the span of a year. A player who doesn't improve at the expected or typical rate for players who have the same age and/or experience can quickly exit the top prospect lists and that's what happened with Kendrick. I'm actually surprised that he's now showing up on everyone else's top prospect lists when in fact, he showed the same or even superior skills (for his age group) a year earlier and yet no one seemed to notice him then."


05 January, 2006

    Dominican playoffs - Luis Terrero ARZ 2-4, double ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-5 ... Juan Cruz OAK 6 5 0 0 1 4

Venezuela - Larry Broadway WAS 2-3, homer ... Luke Scott HOU 2-5, 2 doubles.

    Troop movements ... MIL - signed Dan Kolb ... TEX - now official, trades Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Terrmel Sledge to SD for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and Billy Killian ... NYN - signed Bret Boone to a minor league contract ... FLO - designated Josh Wilson, John Baker for assignment ... BAL - signed Jeff Conine ... PIT - designated J.J. Furmaniak for assignment ... LAD - traded Steve Schmoll, Duaner Sanchez to NYN for Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack ... SD - signed Shawn Estes ...

    Wow. Some awfully good talent, even at the bottom of the list, as Dayn Perry, FoxSports, begins his 2006 Top 100 with #s 91 to 100 :

" ... 95. Jeff Mathis ...  Once upon a time, Mathis was hailed from time to time as the best catching prospect in the game. However, struggles at the plate have relieved him of that status ... . rebounded last season. In 112 games for Triple-A Salt Lake, Mathis authored a batting line of .276 AVG/.340 OBP/.499 SLG. Those are good numbers for a catcher, but keep in mind that Salt Lake is a hitter's paradise. Behind the plate, Mathis is athletic and mobile, and he also boasts a solid throwing arm. He still profiles as a regular at the highest level, but he probably won't be the future All-Star he was once thought to be."

" ... 96. Jason Hirsh ...   If Roger Clemens retires or pitches elsewhere in 2006, Hirsh could open the season in the Houston rotation. Hirsh comes off as a hulking figure on the mound (6-foot-8, 245 pounds) and works the zone with a low-90s fastball, plus a hard slider and decent changeup. He enjoyed a breakout season in 2005; so some skepticism is warranted until Hirsh proves it wasn't a fluke. Those proving grounds, however, may just be in Houston."

" ... 99. Scott Elbert ...  touches the low 90s with his fastball and has command of three pitches. If he's unable to exert optimal control over his breaking stuff, he could wind up in the bullpen. Either way, he should have a career at the highest level. This past season, Elbert struggled with walks in the Sally League, but he fanned 128 batters in 115 innings. He's one to watch."

    Eric Duncan rules the roost in the Yankee farm system in David Regan's latest prospect report at RotoAmerica. And, he's not the only youngster of promise in the New York system :

" ... #2 Philip Hughes ...  had a solid start to 2005 in Charleston while playing there as an 18 year-old for a couple months. He’s got a strong frame, standing a shade over 6’4” and tipping the scales at 220. His fastball has decent movement and comes in usually in the 92-93 range. He’s got an above average curve and has shown a promising slider and change at times ...  If he can show that he’s past his injuries, I could see him reaching AA at some point in 2006."

" ... #4 Tyler Clippard ...  Probably one of the better prospects you’ve never heard of. Clippard had success this year with a fastball that runs up in the 91-93 range, a solid curve and a potential plus change. He has the ability to command all three for strikes and does a good job working the corners ...  confident that there is more velocity left in his arm, as he’s just 20 years old and there is a meager 175 lbs on his 6’3” frame. Should take his skills to AA and be ready to contribute sometime in 2007. Worth watching this kid."

" ...  #9 Jose Tabata ... Has a strong 5’11” frame that eventually figures to fill out and allow Tabata to hit for at least average OF power. His best attribute right now though is his elite speed. Project his SB total over 162 games and you get a nice 81. Tabata shows an advanced approach at the plate, especially considering he played last year at age 16. Defensively he profiles as a centerfielder, which should allow him to move up the system as quickly as his bat allows. No one can say for certain how kids this young will pan out, but Tabata bears watching."

    Tim Polko, RotoHelp, adds a couple of youngsters in his latest installment of AL shortstop reviews :

" ... Hanley Ramirez, 21 ... While he still retains significant upside, Ramirez backslid in nearly every category this year, essentially fizzling offensively in his first full AA season. Even minor improvement in his overall plate discipline cannot compensate for the lack of power development and a lower average."

" ... Tony Giarratano, 22 ... I don't understand why Detroit disrupted Giarratano's development by jumping him to the majors for three weeks in June. At least he continued improving after his return to Erie ...  While a lack of power probably condemns him to a reserve job, Giarratano's speed at least will merit fantasy attention if his overall averages increase in 2006."

    Jays' catcher of the future might be waiver wire material :

" ... A very poor winter for Blue Jays catcher Guillermo Quiroz got even worse yesterday when the team signed ... Jason Phillips to a minor-league deal  ...  He is a favourite of Jays manager John Gibbons from their days in the New York Mets system. "We did this as a favour to Gibby, so we'll see what happens," Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said ... Quiroz was hitting .191 with a .250 on-base percentage and a .276 slugging percentage in his first 68 at-bats for the Zulia Aguilas of the Venezuelan Winter League and there are widespread concerns within the Toronto organization that he isn't ready to step in as a dependable backup to Zaun. Toronto's brain trust was high on Quiroz as the team's future No.1 catcher two years ago, but that opinion faded as he suffered a pair of collapsed lungs in successive minor league campaigns and failed to progress as anticipated."  (Toronto Star)

    Scott Rex, OnDeck, has kicked off his team-by-team prospect charts with Arizona and Atlanta first up :

 1. Stephen Drew, SS		 1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
 2. Conor Jackson, 1B		 2. Elvis Andrus, SS
 3. Carlos Quentin, OF		 3. Chuck James, LHP
 4. Chris Young, OF		 4. Anthony Lerew, RHP
 5. Carlos Gonzales, OF		 5. Joey Devine, RHP
 6. Dustin Nippert, RHP		 6. Beau Jones, LHP
 7. Miguel Montero, C		 7. Yunel Escobar, SS
 8. Chris Carter, 1B		 8. Eric Campbell, 3B
 9. Matt Torra, RHP		 9. Brandon Jones, OF
10. Micah Owings, RHP		10. Matt Harrison, LHP

04 January, 2006

    Troop movements ... HOU - signed OF Preston Wilson ... CHN - signed Marquis Grissom, Augie Ojeda, Mike Restovich to minor league contracts ... SD - signed Dewon Brazelton ...

    Baseball America returns from a holiday hiatus to kickoff the AL prospect reports.  The O's are the first up and Nick Markakis tops the chart (ranking #1 in six of the seven BAL Top 10s) over lefty SP Adam Loewen and righty SP Hayden Penn

    Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts, looks back on his 2005 "breakout" picks, nailing more than a couple  :

" ... Jon Lester  ... What I said then: "My other well-known favorite is Jon Lester, who some might call the reach of my top 75. At forty-eight, I believe this will be the season that Lester puts it all together ...  Lester's stock skyrocketed in 2005. His season made him the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year. Like last year, the Red Sox are seemingly refusing to trade Lester, who has #2 potential in the Major Leagues. Dave Cameron at USS Mariner wrote a good column last week against Lester, but I think Dave is underrating his stuff. Few southpaws offer a two-pitch combination like him, and even fewer are as good in the H/9, K/9 and HR/9 ratios. If Lester can tighten his control, he should be a consensus top five pitching prospect."

" ... Andy LaRoche ... What I said then: "Following a summer when LaRoche was named the Cape Cod League's best position prospect, the Dodgers gave him top-round money. Good decision. Once the average catches up with the rest of his skills ...  should be one of the game's top third base prospects." ...   For much of the season's first half, LaRoche kept pace with Brandon Wood in the minor league home run lead ...   However, a move from Vero Beach to Jacksonville all but ended his bid. While most see some colossal regression from high-A to AA, I think LaRoche showed a lot of poise upon promotion. Suddenly he became a disciplined hitter, a skill that would go a long way into covering any contact problems that he might have. What won't leave any time soon, I would think, is his fantastic power. Dodgers Stadium is a pitcher's park, but LaRoche really profiles to hit more than 25 home runs wherever he plays. With a little discipline, annual lines of .275/.360/.480 is a conservative guess."

    Again, no rookies, but Tim Polko, RotoHelp, has a couple of the young guns in his second installment of AL shortstops :

" ... 23. Jason Bartlett ...  He unsurprisingly excelled in his second summer at AAA Rochester(IL), compiling a .332/.405/.459 ...  the Twins thankfully seem committed to playing Bartlett every day this year, giving him a chance to translate his minor league skill set into big league stats."

" ... 24. Yuniesky Betancourt  ...  joined the Mariners at the end of July, immediately moving into the starting lineup for defensive reasons and contributing very little with his bat. The good news is that he held an .809 OPS against southpaws, demonstrated intriguing plate discipline in September ...  I do not expect him to emerge as a significant offensive threat for a couple of seasons, but Betancourt's long-term future remains very bright as he develops into an asset at shortstop for Seattle."

    John Lowe, Detroit Free Press, reflecting upon the Tigers' draft mishaps :

" ...  Since 1981, only three first-round picks have made a noticeable contribution to the Tigers: first baseman Tony Clark, pitcher Matt Anderson (for one season, really) and pitcher Jeff Weaver (who brought Jeremy Bonderman in return).  Only one other Tigers first-round pick since '81 has had notable success in the majors: First baseman Rico Brogna ...  In this meager span, two Tigers All-Stars -- infielder Travis Fryman and pitcher Justin Thompson -- were almost first-round picks. The Tigers took them between the first and second rounds with compensation picks for the losses of free agents Lance Parrish and Jack Morris ...   More than one pitcher taken No. 1 by the Tigers in recent years has developed arm trouble, a list that includes [Kenny] Baugh. Perhaps all this first-round misfortune is changing at last.

Justin Verlander, the Tigers' first-round pick in '04, could claim the open spot in their rotation for next season. The hard-throwing right-hander drew all kinds of raves for his power pitching in the minors this past season -- his first season in pro ball.

And Cameron Maybin, the outfielder whom the Tigers selected in the first round this year, is widely regarded as the kind of all-around talent that the Tigers seldom have snagged  ...  Padres, who won their division last season, were willing to give a roster spot to Baugh.  "Any time you get a chance to get your hands on a first-round pick, you're interested, because there was enough talent there at one point for the player to be drafted highly," said San Diego general manager Kevin Towers."


03 January, 2006

    Dominican playoffs - Edwin Encarnacion CIN 2-3, 2 runs ... Edwin Volquez TEX 5 8 4 2 2 6 ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-5 ... not a kid, but worth noting, Ronnie Belliard CLE 2-4, double, homer, 5 RBI

    Troop movements ... it appears the reports of Jeromy Burnitz signing with BAL were premature ... the latest rumour is a hookup with PIT ...

    Some stats of possible interest from Venezuela & Mexico :

Venezuela               JJ  VB H2 H3 HR BB SO  AVE  SLG  OBP
Owens Jerry             45 180  9  4  1 22 24 .356 .467 .429
Cede¥O Ronny            45 169  9  4  2 11 22 .355 .491 .400
Orr Pete                33 133  7  1  0 13 21 .353 .421 .412
Scott Luke              34 114  7  1 12 25 36 .342 .737 .464
Gutierrez Franklin      52 190  7  1  4 28 30 .337 .447 .430
Scutaro Marco           38 137 13  1  3 20 17 .336 .511 .422
Broadway Larry          23  82  4  0  1 10 22 .329 .415 .409
De Caster Yurendell     60 209  9  2 17 36 54 .325 .632 .427
Bergolla William        51 208  9  2  1 19 19 .308 .385 .367
Callaspo Alberto        55 191  8  2  3 20 13 .304 .414 .370
Young Walter            33 129  6  0  3  9 20 .295 .411 .359
Cabrera Miguel          12  41  2  0  1 12  8 .293 .415 .455
Montero Miguel          50 153 10  0  6 21 21 .281 .464 .368
Herrera Javier          54 120  6  2  3 12 27 .275 .433 .348
Bohn T.J.               46 165 10  0  1 23 48 .267 .345 .358
Alfonzo Edgardo         14  49  1  0  0  3  5 .245 .265 .309
Cabrera Asdrubal        22  54  4  0  0  7 10 .241 .315 .328
Quiroz Guillermo        21  68  1  0  1  3 21 .191 .250 .276
MEXICO                  G   AB 2B 3B HR BB SO  AVG  SLG  OBP
Clark, Howie,2B         46 171  6  3  9 24 14 .333 .561 .419
Clark, Douglas,OF       60 204 14  1 11 31 46 .324 .564 .418
Rivera, Ruben,OF        68 227  8  1 16 46 44 .308 .564 .444
Gonzalez, Adrian,1B     67 258 15  2 10 30 50 .306 .496 .380
Devore, Doug,OF         22  86  4  0  6 13 23 .302 .558 .400
Francisco, Ben,OF       60 243 11  1 13 15 55 .296 .510 .348
Amezaga, Alfredo,SS     66 265 12  4  5 25 42 .294 .426 .358
Pickering, Calvin,1B    60 191  4  0 14 56 62 .288 .529 .452
Spilborghs, Ryan,OF     39 143  7  1  8 27 28 .287 .517 .398
Eldred, Brad,DH         10  38  1  0  0  1  9 .211 .237 .268
Cantu, Jorge,2B         17  69  4  0  0  2 12 .203 .261 .222
Linden, Todd,OF         23  77  2  0  1 19 20 .182 .247 .357
Venezuela            IP  H HR CP CL BB SO EFE
Petit Yusmeiro       49 51  7 13 11  8 43 2.01
Butto Francisco      30 28  3 11 10 14 26 3.00
Galarraga Armando    52 53  3 21 18 18 30 3.10
Ledezma Wilfredo     28 25  2 15 10 18 13 3.14
Nieve Fernando       16 19  3 15 12  5 15 6.75
Pinto Renyel         13 15  1 14 12 14 10 7.90
Mexico	             IP	 H HR  R ER BB SO ERA
Reyes Dennys	     14	 8  1  4  2  4 13 1.29
Campos Francisco     93	75  7 31 27 41 78 2.60
Prieto Ariel	     38	30  5 16 11  6 31 2.61
Valenzuela Fernando  56	66  6 32 27 18 23 4.31

    Mark Allen Haverty offers a interesting look at the youth movement in FLO in a piece in The Sporting News :

" ... SP Yusmeiro Petit ...  was spectacular in Double-A this past season, with a K/BB ratio well over seven, and a record of 9-3 with a 2.91 ERA. He struggled in three appearances with Triple-A Norfolk though, going 0-3 with a 9.20 ERA. After walking just 18 in 21 Double-A games, he walked six in three Triple-A starts. Petit will be just 21 at the start of the season, and he could use more time in the minors. However, the Marlins have gutted their starting rotation, all but guaranteeing Petit a spot in the majors in 2006. Florida's cavernous ballpark will help him, and he will get strikeouts, but wins will be scarce and the ERA could hurt."

" ... SS Hanley Ramirez ...   While the New York prospect hype machine is second to none ...  the Boston media frenzy certainly does its fair share of over-hyping. Remember the Carl Pavano-for-Pedro Martinez trade? ...  What's this all have to do with Ramirez? He's the latest beneficiary of the hype. The tools are certainly there, but Ramirez has not exactly overwhelmed offensively in the minors. In 122 games in Double-A this year, Ramirez hit .271 with six home runs, 52 RBIs, and 26 stolen bases in 39 attempts ... The Marlins will start Ramirez, but he is not ready. At best, he is a .260 hitter with the occasional stolen base, and three or four homers. He's Alex Gonzalez with more hype. The potential for more is there, but that will be in 2007 or, more likely, 2008."

    Tim Polko, RotoHelp, moves on to rate the best of the AL shortstops for 2006.  No room for rookies in the Top 10, but a pair of youngsters made the cut (ranked for a 4x4 Roto format) :

" ... 5. Jhonny Peralta  ... 504 147 .292 24 78 0 82 S CLE Indians 4x4 5x5 RAR Adj. RAR Age: 23 B:R T:R 18 19 36.5 36.5 I anticipate some regression in Peralta's second full season in the majors, but excellent patience further fueled by developing plate discipline down the stretch provides a superb foundation for continued development. Of course, Cleveland's biggest "problem" is that Peralta, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez all look like #3 hitters and slotting Peralta above the two current OBP machines makes no sense at all. Hopefully someone will convince Eric Wedge to drop Peralta one or two spots lower in the order, allowing him to develop his power without the pressure of driving the offense. Everything here at least indicates an upside for him in the neighborhood of Miguel Tejada, so if he continues hitting third, Peralta will begin receiving the annual MVP consideration denied him this year. Feel free to jump to $19 and then remain in any bidding into the mid-$20s in keeper leagues."

" ... 10. Russ Adams  ... 481 123 .256 8 63 11 68 S TOR Blue Jays 4x4 5x5 RAR Adj. RAR Age: 25 B:L T:R 10 11 3 3 Serving as Toronto's primary leadoff hitter in the second half, Adams failed to impress at the top of the order. He merely managed a .329 OBP versus right-handers in 2005. However, given his strong plate discipline, patience, and speed skills, Adams should develop into a very productive top of the order option. Toronto's new offense should place Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and Troy Glaus in some combination behind Adams, positioning him to gain plenty of value in 5x5 leagues. You may be able to steal him somewhere in single digits, a tremendous bargain given the BA upside suggested by his skill set."

    Rick Maese, Baltimore Sun, on Daniel Cabrera :

" ... Cabrera, the 6-foot-7, 24-year-old right-hander, is on the verge of something much bigger. Fewer than three years removed from Single-A baseball, Cabrera is poised to start the 2006 season as an anchor on the Orioles' pitching staff ...  Whenever other teams call with trade offers, there are two things they want: Cabrera and Erik Bedard, the Orioles' other young pitcher. They all want Cabrera for the same reason the Orioles refuse to part with him: He's on the brink of a breakout season. "I want spring training to start now," he said last week. "I'm ready. I've been doing a lot of things, working these last couple of months. Now I want to see what happens with it."  ... Cabrera didn't even catch his breath after returning to the Dominican Republic after last season's finale at Tampa Bay. He started right in with his offseason homework: developing a third pitch. He always felt like he was at a disadvantage in a 2-0 count. With only two reliable pitches - a fastball that routinely tops 95 mph and a solid slider - batters knew exactly what was coming. Not next season, Cabrera promises. He has been throwing six to seven days a week, and his changeup has developed nicely."


02 January, 2006

    The very best wishes for you and yours in this new season.  Just forty-six days (until pitchers/catchers report to ST).

    Dominican playoffs - Joaquin Benoit TEX 2 1 0 0 0 2 ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-5, triple.  Venezuela - Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4  & 2-3, double, .337.  A couple of performances of note in Puerto Rico ... Alay Soler NYN 3.00 in 24 innings, 10 BB, 17 Ks ... Gavin Floyd PHI 3.89 in 34 2/3s, 17 walks, 21 Ks

    Troop movements ... ARZ - signed Eric Byrnes ... FLO - signed Miguel Olivo, Wes Helms, Pokey Reese, Joe Borowski ... NYA - signed Octavio Dotel ... WAS - signed Tony Armas Jr., Ramon Ortiz ... PIT - signed Joe Randa ... BAL - signed Jeromy Burnitz ... NYN - signed Chad Bradford

    Rays' Jeff Niemann hopeful of much better things in 2006 after fall surgery :

" ... The arthroscopic procedure in October shaved the joint between Niemann's right shoulder and collarbone. He said weight training is strengthening the joint, and he should be able to throw in mid January. He hopes to join a minor-league team by April. "It was very disappointing," Niemann said of his season. "It was mentally challenging to overcome that. I'm ready to get back to where I was. You've just got to know you're good enough ... Niemann shares a Houston apartment with pitcher and former Rice teammate Wade Townsend, the Rays' top 2005 pick who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Niemann said Townsend's scar is "nasty" but added, "He's coming along great." (St. Petersburg Times)

    A big round of applause for the superb work by John Franco at SportsBlurb !  With the SF and SD prospect reports, he's wound his way through all the clubs.  A sample from the latest dispatches :

" ...  1. Matt Cain ...  pitched brilliantly for the Giants down the stretch ... Before his promotion, Cain led the PCL in strikeouts with 176 punchouts in 145.2 innings of work. He relies heavily on a mid-90s fastball and a hard breaking ball that is somewhere between a slider and a curveball. Cain also has an improving changeup that showed the potential to be average in 2006 and a plus pitch down the road. He still needs to improve his command  ...   may experience a few bumps in the road in 2006, but he will be an ace down the road."

" ... 2. Marcus Sanders ...  a rare kind of prospect – a shortstop who cannot throw very well. He has had shoulder problems on and off since an injury suffered during his high school football days ...  a move to second base or the outfield could be in his future if it doesn’t happen – he has the range and the footwork to stay at shortstop if his arm does improve. Sanders is a dynamic offensive player with outstanding speed and great base-stealing ability ...  Without improvement, Sanders projects as a Juan Pierre type centerfielder and leadoff hitter, but with a healthy shoulder, he could play more like Jimmy Rollins with better defense and a better on-base percentage."

" ... 1. Cesar Carillo ...  after a rough start in the hitter-friendly Cal League, pitched very well at Double-A Mobile as a 21-year old. He is a polished pitcher with a low-90s fastball that can reach 96 and is complemented by a big curveball and changeup that have both shown the potential to be plus pitches."

" ... 3. George Kotteras ...  a good offensive catcher with an excellent eye and a smooth, left-handed swing that produces high numbers of line drives. The Padres are still hoping that Koterras will develop more power, and his 36 doubles in 438 at-bats show that their wishes could be fulfilled some day. Kotteras is an athletic catcher who moves well behind the plate, but his arm is just average and he needs to shorten up his release. He is only 6 feet tall and weighs about 190 pounds, so I wonder if he will be durable enough to be an everyday catcher."

    David Regan, RotoAmerica, also had a busy holiday season posting prospect reports for the Mets who have a pair of outfielders atop the list :

" ...  #1 Lastings Milledge ...  An elite 5-tool talent, Milledge is by far the best prospect left in the Mets system. Reached AA at age 20 and hit .337…very impressive. He’s got a strong arm, runs well, and profiles as a major league CF along the lines of a Carlos Beltran. His pitch selection has improved some since he was drafted, but he’ll probably always be an aggressive hitter and will need to hit in the .320s to have a solid OBP, which he CAN do ... with his bat speed, I think 25-30 HR’s are very possible as he matures and develops his game. ... He’ll be a regular by 2007."

" ... #2 Carlos Gomez ...  Scouts say he has very good raw power but will needs some time to grow into it. Still, that tool combined with great speed (#2 in the minors in steals with 64) and a strong throwing arm leads some scouts to believe that his upside might be higher than that of Milledge. Needs to work on reigning in his aggressiveness at the plate ...  should start the year in the FSL where he’ll be tested yet again. Very interesting package of tools. Could be a superstar or could flame out, wheras a guy like Milledge seems more of a “sure bet”."

" ... #6 Alay Soler  ...  I don’t think the Mets even know exactly what they’re getting here, but Soler does have a fastball that runs up in the 92-94 range as well as a plus slider and a change ...  Mets are hoping he’s had time to settle in and adjust to American culture and they plan to send him to AA to start the year. Could get a few spot starts this year or even wind up in the pen setting up Billy Wagner. Not quite sure what his upside is yet until I see how he does this year."

    Over at BaseballAnalysts, Bryan Smith offers some interesting insights in a a review of the Top 10 of the 2004 draft :

Chris Nelson, COL  " ...  2005 began late with a hamstring injury, as he appeared in just 79 games. Nelson was atrocious in those games, with little power, no contact skills, and mediocre defense. Much can be blamed on the injury, but even that has people bringing out the term "injury-prone." ...  For Nelson to be successful, his power must reappear in 2006. If it does, any contact problems will be overlooked ...  could turn out to be an All-Star -- especially in Coors Field -- though after this season, that doesn't look to be a good bet."

Homer Bailey, CIN  " ...  2005 season doesn't look great on the whole. He walked 62 batters in 103.2 innings, hardly showing the control that characterized him in high school. What did follow him to the Midwest League, however, was great stuff. During that time, he allowed just 89 hits, while striking out 125. Better yet, Bailey allowed just five home runs all season ...  has one of the best two-pitch arsenals in the minors, and should be among the game's elite pitching prospects in little more than a year. The Reds must preach control with him, and continue to work on his change-up, but Bailey has legitimate ace potential."

    Jim Callis, Baseball America, makes his choice between Andy Marte and Hanley Ramirez.

" ... I'd rather have Marte than Ramirez in both the short term and the long term. Shortstop is a harder position to fill than third base, and if they both reach their ceilings, Ramirez will be the better player. But Ramirez never has had a breakout season to match his tools, and while he remains one of the game's best shortstop prospects, there seems to be something missing ...  I still think he'll be a big league regular, but I'm less confident that he'll be a star. Marte's biggest problem in Atlanta was that he was blocked at third base ...  should become an all-star-caliber third baseman."

    If you're looking for information on the catching corps check out Tim Polko's report at RotoHelp. The youngsters don't rank very high in Tim's review (which is geared to 2006 performances) but there's some solid info to chew over for a number of intriguing kids :=

" ... 12.  Brian McCann ...  faces a clear path to regular duty in Atlanta for many years given he possesses the best overall combination of catching skills in the system. Consider McCann a solid pick-up anywhere in single digits. Even if he suffers a sophomore slump due to skipping AAA, I still expect him to justify his salary by the end of his contract in any keeper league."

" ... 13. Ryan Doumit  ... Defensive questions should shift Doumit into the Craig Wilson role over the next two years, but with Ronny Paulino slated for a full AAA campaign to refine his bat, Doumit heads to camp as Pittsburgh's undisputed starting catcher. He excelled down the stretch after winning a full-time job ... Downward BA creep could limit his value to the level of Jason LaRue initially, though excellent power potential will compensate for weak plate discipline, insuring Doumit will justify bids of several dollars."

" ... 19. Dioner Navarro  ...  I truly want to endorse Navarro as the next great young catcher, but he faces dual problems in the unhelpful hitting environment in Dodger Stadium and an onrushing prospect in Russ Martin with as much upside as Navarro ...  easily could emerge as an offensive force over the rest of the decade, yet due to the reasonable likelihood of him departing the organization within the next year, bidding more than a few bucks on his upside ranks as a definite mistake."

" ...  28. Ronny Paulino ...  ranks among the top catching prospects in the game, possessing the best skills behind the plate in the system and an unexpectedly potent bat. Pittsburgh easily could keep Paulino with Ryan Doumit next spring, providing the potential for a powerful young catching tandem. The problem with that scenario recalls Arizona's disaster over the first of this year, so while Pittsburgh could employ Paulino as a defensive-oriented backup, I instead expect him to return to Indianapolis, preparing as a starter in case Doumit falters on either side of the plate. Paulino remains a solid long-term bet to enjoy a few years above double-digit roto value."

    David Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner, with his views on a pair of BOS SP prospects (given some rumours about one of the the kids coming to SEA in a trade for outfielder Jeremy Reed) :

" ... The annointing of Papelbon and Lester as elite young pitchers is quite premature ... Papelbon ...  is essentially the Red Sox version of Clint Nageotte. Power pitcher without a good offspeed pitch, low to mid 90s fastball, lots of scouts prefer as a reliever. Papelbon has slightly better command, but Nageotte showed some groundball dominance this year ...  Jon Lester ...  moved to Double-A Portland and had his best year as a pro. He continued to trim his walk rate and raise his strikeouts despite pitching against advanced competition. After the season, he was ranked by BA as the 4th best prospect in the Eastern League ...  throws 90-93 from the left side and uses a cut fasball at times, and while he throws a change and a curve, neither one are major league pitches right now. He’s essentially beating people with his fastball. His command is still a bit of a question mark, and he missed time with shoulder soreness in June ... Lester and Papelbon are good pitching prospects ...  But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that these guys are rare elite arms. They’re solid, good pitching prospects. But these guys aren’t special. Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester. There’s a lot of 90-94 MPH arms with developing secondary pitches and mediocre command running around out there."


28 December, 2005 

    Venezuela - Larry Broadway WAS 2-4, double ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4 ... Tony Armas Jr. WAS 4 5 0 0 0 3   Dominican -- Esteban German KC 3-5, triple ... Edison Volquez TEX (more below) 4 6 5 3 1 6 ... Erick Aybar LAA 5-5, triple ...  Wilson Betemit ATL, the golden sombrero, 0-4, 4 Ks 

    Troop movements ...  TEX - signed Kevin Millwood ... TOR - acquired Troy Glaus and Sergio Santos from ARZ for Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista ... 

    John Franco, SportsBlurb, highlights the Dodger farm and manages to find a few gems.

" ... #1 Chad Billingsley ... might be the best pitching prospect you’ve never heard of, since Felix Hernandez, Zach Duke, Matt Cain and even Francisco Liriano have stolen most of the headlines in recent months ... has a chance to be just as good as any of those pitchers ...  has a good fastball in the 93-94 range with excellent movement, and complements his heater with two excellent breaking balls – a curveball and a slider. His changeup is improving and should give him four pitches that are at least average ... has the stuff to pitch in the major leagues right now, but he could benefit from another half-season in the minors to refine his secondary pitches and gain more confidence in his stuff."

" ... #5 Scott Elbert ...  one of the Dodgers’ three first-round picks in 2004, and he really blossomed down the stretch in 2005, finishing the year with a 5-1 record and a 1.96 ERA in his final 12 starts. He is an athletic left-hander with a good fastball in the 90-93 range, and also throws a sweeping curveball that he can use for an out pitch. His changeup improved significantly down the stretch and serves as a useful third pitch ... has the athletic ability to make improvements and he is only 20 years old. He has good command of all three of his pitches, and as his mechanics improve, he will be able to keep the ball down consistently. With Billingsley slated as a future ace, Elbert fits nicely as a good No. 2 pitcher behind him."

" ... #6 Matt Kemp ...  a big, athletic outfielder with surprising speed for his size (6’4, 210) – Kemp has the speed and arm to play centerfield, but his jumps and routes to the ball are questionable, and he is more likely to end up in right field ... excellent raw power, but needs to improve his plate discipline and keep his hands back in order to use the whole field. It would seem likely that Kemp would struggle when exposed to better pitching at AA, but his AFL performance mitigates that concern .... athleticism should enable him to make adjustments without losing too much power."

    Lefty Jon Lester takes the top spot in David Regan's BOS prospect report at RotoAmerica : (a piece completed before the Andy Marte trade) 

" ...  there’s little doubt that Lester is the best prospect left in the system ...  Outside of Francisco Liriano, there isn’t a better pitching prospect in all of baseball right now. Has a solid low 90s fastball that seems faster with its late life. Can dial it up a few notches when necessary, but he’s most effective when pitching comfortably in the 91-93 range. Also tosses a solid curve, cutter, and change. His secondary offerings still have room for improvement, but since he’s still just 21, there’s plenty of time ... has a career as a #2 starter ahead of him with another year of development."

" ... #2 Dustin Pedroia ...  Compares favorably to Cards SS David Eckstein for his height (5’8”), all-out gamer mentality, and most importantly, his on-base skills. Pedroia has a chance at the starting 2B job this spring unless the Sox bring in some mediocre vet to fill the role. He’s not a guy with a great arm or great range, but he knows where to stand and is very instinctive ...  able to make consistent contact and drive the ball in the gaps. Doesn’t strike out much and can draw a walk."

" ... #5 Craig Hansen ...  rocketed to the big leagues and made three appearances for the Red Sox in 2005. Hansen rose to prominence as a potential high first rounder after striking out 41 hitters in the Cape Cod League in just 22 innings prior to the 2005 college season. He pounds the strikezone with a mid 90s and up fastball, a power slider that can hit 90, and he has a change up a la Eric Gagne. Yikes. He should enter 2006 as a setup man, but the closer’s role is his in the future."

    Matt Jacovina, WarmOctoberNights, likes Homer Bailey as the best of the CIN prospects:

" ...  One of the elite pitching talents from the 2004 draft, there’s a ton of potential housed in Bailey’s Texan arm. Both his fastball and curveball could be plus pitches, and if his change turns out even average, it could be enough to push him into the coveted “ace” category. “Explosive” is the overtly venerating term which kept creeping into my mental notes from seeing his fastball: it’s an awesome pitch. He’s still 19, though, and understandably has some more progress to make before being able to face big leaguers at the level he’s capable of. In 104 innings last year, Homer walked 62, leaving ample room for improvement in the control department. Normal growing pains. If all goes well, he’ll break out in a big way this season."

" ... 3. Jay Bruce ...  Without much data to go by, the most important thing to say about Bruce is that he’s a five tool talent, with the potential to be both a plus hitter, defender, and base runner. He was a very solid first round pick by the Reds this year, and he’ll be given the opportunity to move quickly through the system if his play matches his hype. The Reds would love to hand the centerfield position over to Jay eventually, but even if his range proves inadequate, he should hit enough for the right field spot."

    In BAL, one of the kids looks to get a long look for a regular OF job :

" ...  manager Sam Perlozzo ... probably still isn't sure who will be his everyday center fielder, but it is expected that top prospect Nick Markakis will be given the opportunity in spring training to win the job. Luis Matos, last year's starter in center, also remains an option, but his name has been mentioned often in trade talks." (Baltimore Sun)

    Over at RotoHelp, Tim Polko has begun his annual position-by-positionh analysis.  First up, American League catchers.  Martinez-Mauer-Varitek 1-2-3, and, to not much surprise, no rooks listed in the first installment. 

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, on Edison Volquez TEX :

" ...  To me he looks like a solid Grade B/B+ type prospect, a guy with a lot of natural talent who has made progress putting things together, but who isn't quite there yet.  Don't get me wrong: he is a very good prospect, but Volquez is not the second coming of Juan Marichal, not yet anyway, and letting the hype get out of control will hurt more than help.  Grade B+. "


27 December, 2005 

    Dominican - Andy Marte BOS 0-3, .220   Venezuela - Yurendell De Caster PIT 1-5, 16th homer ... William Bergolla CIN 4-6, double ... Armando Galarraga 5-2/3 7 1 1 2 4 

    Troop movements ... STL - signed Juan Encarnacion, Junior Spivey ... BOS - signed John Flaherty ... NYN - signed Endy Chavez ... KC - signed Reggie Sanders, Joe Mays ...  SF - signed Jose Vizcaino ... WAS - signed Mike Stanton ... CLE - signed SP Jason Johnson (DET) ... TOR - acquired Troy Glaus (not yet confirmed)

    Michael Laureano Diamond Futures with his picks as the best of the American League prospects. The Top 20 (click the link for the full list) :

 1 Liriano Francisco       11 Britton Chris
 2 Hughes Phil             12 Jones Justin
 3 Hernandez Felix         13 Sowers Jeremy
 4 Young Delmon            14 Verlander Justin
 5 Butler Billy            15 Huber Justin
 6 Upton B.J.              16 Marte Andy
 7 Barton Daric            17 Clippard Tyler
 8 Banks Josh              18 Pedroia Dustin
 9 Wood Brandon            19 McCarthy Brandon
10 Diamond Thomas          20 Jurrjens Jair

     Tim Polko, RotoHelp, rates the kids on the Nats farm :

" ... Ryan Zimmerman ... Even an awful spring probably won't prevent Zimmerman from opening 2006 as the Nats' starting third baseman ... Capable of handling shortstop, Zimmerman profiles as one of the top fielding third baseman in baseball. More importantly, he possesses plenty of offensive upside despite a rookie season of home games at pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium. While I expect Zimmerman's unimpressive plate discipline will prevent him from blossoming into a $20 player for a couple years, a respectable batting average and quantitative output should fuel a push towards double-digit value, an impressive result for anyone only a year out of college."

" ... Kory Casto ...  looks like a future cleanup hitter in Washington regardless of whether he plays third, second, or a corner outfield position. My biggest concern regarding his development is the possibility of Casto turning into another Val Pascucci, however Casto's superior defensive skills should insure he avoids a quick move to AAAA status and eventually Japan. Consider Casto a solid mid-round pick in any league, likely to win a starting job sometime in 2007."

" ... Clint Everts ...The extremely forgiving environment of RFK Stadium currently boosts the value of all Nationals' pitching prospects, earning Everts inclusion here despite his slow development track. Tommy John surgery at the end of 2004 thankfully only cost him a year, and give his significant long-term potential, Everts just might challenge for a rotation slot by the end of 2006."

    Mets get some good news on Phil Humber :

" ...  Though the Mets' former first-round pick isn't unleashing the mid-90s fastball that made him a top-five selection in the 2004 First-Year Player Draft, he's more than pleased with being able to soft toss from 45 feet just five months after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Rice product will begin a throwing program just after the new year and is scheduled to participate in New York's mini-camp next month in St. Lucie, Fla ...  Humber fully anticipates being back in a competitive environment sometime in June. "It's hard to set a timetable," said Humber, who was 2-7 with a 5.09 ERA in 15 games at Class A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton. "The way I feel right now, I definitely expect it to be sooner than later. I'll be disappointed if I'm not pitching in games by June." (MiLB.com)

    More than a few very interesting picks in Aaron Gleeman's third installment of SPs for the future at RotoWorld:

" ... 26) Ervin Santana ...  made the jump up from the minors and become one of the team’s most reliable starters. He went 12-8 with a 4.65 ERA in 23 starts, striking out 99 batters in 133.2 innings, and came up with a big relief outing in the postseason. Santana doesn’t turn 23 until January, and he’ll have a full season in the rotation in 2006."

" ... 31) Daniel Cabrera ... If Leo Mazzone really is a genius—and there’s plenty of evidence that suggests he is—then Daniel Cabrera has a chance to be something really special. Cabrera has incredible raw talent and amazing stuff, but he has yet to put it all together on the mound. He shows flashes of dominance, but went just 10-13 with a 4.52 ERA in 29 starts this season ... he’s only 25 years old."

" ... 38) Zack Greinke ... had a brutal 2005 season, going 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA while giving up a ghastly 233 hits in 183 innings. So why is he on this list? Well, he’s 22 years old, had a solid rookie season in 2004, and had a good minor-league track record. He’s going to need some help from the Royals and his coaches to turn things around, but don’t give up on a guy this promising just because of a bad age-21 season."

    David Regan, RotoAmerica, views Jeremy Hermida, Scott Olson, Hanley Ramirez 1-2-3 on the FLO farm :

" ... #2 Scott Olsen ... has a nice set of pitches, including a fastball that runs up in the 92-94 range with good life, a plus slider, and a change. Stands a solid 6’4”, and at around 200 lbs, could stand to add a little more muscle which could improve his velocity and most importantly, his durability. Does tend to overthrow at times, as per his aggressive mentality, and that has led to command issues, and this year some elbow inflammation ... When he’s 100% and on his game, Olsen has #1 starter potential. In a rotation without Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett now, I could see him as a #3 behind Willis and a RH starter."

" ... #4 Anibal Sanchez ...  I really like Sanchez and think the Marlins did well getting him from Boston ... Dominated the Carolina League and held his own and more as a 21 year-old in AA. Sanchez has three or four solid offerings, including a 93-94 mph fastball, a change that’s already a plus pitch (good sign!) and a slider and curve ... needs to continue maintaining consistent mechanics and refining his secondary pitches, but he has #1 starter potential."

" ... #9 Chris Volstad ...  Can already hit 93-94 on the gun while sitting in the low 90s regularly, and that is expected to only increase as he adds muscle to his lanky frame. Already has a solid curve and change, leading scouts to consider him advanced beyond his years. Overthrows at times and he can stand to improve the consistency of his command ...  May not needs more than 2 more years in the minors and could conceivably reach the majors by September 2007, as the Marlins are aggressive with their promotions."


22 December, 2005 

    Going to slip this report in just to try and keep up with all the player movement and to update the 40-man rosters, Top 10s, Crossovers & Spring Training Invitees.

The very best to you and yours  ... hope there is something nice under the tree!  

     Dominican - Victor Diaz NYN 3-5, 2 doubles, .361 ... Joel Guzman LAD 1-3 & 1-3 & 1-4, 11th double, .280 ... Hanley Ramirez FLO 1-4, double & 2-5, .265 ... Wilson Betemit ATL 2-4, 12th double, .292 ... Andy Marte BOS 0-3, .226 ... Edwin Encarnacion CIN 1-3, grandslam, .265 

Venezuela - Larry Broadway WAS 3-4 & 2-4, homer ... Anibal Sanchez BOS 4-2/3 4 2 2 3 5 ... Fernando Nieve HOU 2-1/3 6 5 5 1 2 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 3-4

     Troop movements ...  lots of new free agents, those who've been non-tendered : LAD - Mike Edwards, Brian Myrow, Jason Phillips ... OAK - Hiram Bocachica ... MIN - Grant Balfour ... BOS - Wade Miller, Chad Bradford ... NYN - Tyler Yates, Wayne Lydon ... CIN - Ramon Ortiz, Joe Valentine ... SD - Dewon Brazelton, Craig Breslow, Miguel Olivo ... SEA - Ryan Franklin, Cha Seung Baek, Jamal Strong,  ... ATL - Jim Brower, Wes Obermueller ... MIL - Dan Kolb, Jeff Bennett ... .. ...  BAL - Eric Byrnes, Kurt Ainsworth, Eddy Rodriguez ... CHA - Willie Harris, Timo Perez, Felix Diaz, Jon Adkins ... CLE - Jose Diaz ... TB - Lance Carter, Trever Miller, Mike Rose ... TEX - Nick Regillo ... COL - Jose Acevedo, Ryan Spilborghs ... FLO - Joe Dillon ... PHI - Endy Chavez ... PIT - Josh Fogg ... STL - Mike Lincoln, Mike Mahoney, Scott Seabol, Bob Hart ... WAS - Junior Spivey, Alex Escobar, Rick Short, TJ Tucker ... NYA - Wayne Franklin 

Other deals ...LAD - signed Kenny Lofton, Brett Tomko ... CHN - signed Jacques Jones ... BOS - signed Rudy Seanez ... TB - designated Joe Borowski for assignment .. NYA - signed Octavio Dotel ...  CIN - signed Chris Hammond ... SEA - claimed Jake Woods off waivers from LAA, designated infielder Greg Dobbs for assignment, signed Matt Lawton  ...  SD - traded Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and a PTBNL to TEX for Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge (not yet confirmed), signed Brian Sikorski  ....  NYA - signed Johnny Damon, Bernie Williams ... STL - Rhett Parrott to AAA ... SF - acquired Steve Finley from LAA Edgardo Alfonzo ...MIL - acquired Chris Demaria from KC Justin Barnes ...  MIN - signed Rondell White ... 

For insight into the latest troop movements, please check out Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts.

     Finally, BAL with a little to brag about on the farm.  At RotoAmerica, David Regan checks in with the O's reviews, including No. 1 Nick Markakis :

" ...  Orioles appear to have a legitimate home-grown hitting prospect that projects as a future regular and who's actually close to contributing at the big league leve ...  has shown steady progress through the O's system, reaching AA in 2005 as a 21 year-old. Has a great approach at the plate and a nice-looking left-handed stroke. His power is still developing and he does a great job driving balls to both alleys as evidenced by the 41 doubles. Should show more power as he matures and learns to drive mistakes and has easy 30 HR power. He's athletic and has a plus arm ... Should reach the majors sometime in 2006 and might get pushed to AAA to start the year. Long term I see him as a guy with these numbers: .300/.380/.540."

" ... #3 Brandon Snyder ... Converted from SS to catcher in spring of 2005 and the position change certainly didn't hurt him at the plate. I'm really impressed with his plate discipline, as at the age of 18 he managed a very healthy 30 walks in 52 games. Showed the ability to pound the ball both ways and has excellent raw power. The makings of a very good offensive catcher are certainly here. Scouts love his all-out approach to the game ... an average arm at best, but his bat should more than make up for his projected average defense. "

" ... #8 Brandon Erbe ...  At 6'4", 180 lbs, there's a ton of room for projection here considering that played 2005 at age 17. Still a growing boy, Erbe's fastball has already touched 97 while sitting in the 91-95 range regularly. Has a solid slider and still needs to develop a change, as he'll need that as he advances. Didn't really need the change in the Appy League as he posted an unworldly 18.5 K / 9 IP rate (albeit in limited innings). He's also very deceptive with his delivery. "

     David Luciani, Baseball Notebook Newsletter, responds to criticism of his Top 100, specifically some omissions - Howie Kendick, Lastings Milledge, Joel Guzman, Matt Cain, Ryan Zimmerman :

" ... . I still think Kendrick is going to be a good player and in fact, in the more extensive Baseball Notebook Rookie Analysis, I listed him 134th overall among the prospects ...  I see him as an eventual .311 type hitter with 20 home run ability and 18 stolen base speed. His huge problem is going to be a projected lack of ability to take walks (I project about 21 walks per full season when he's in his prime) and even with the excellent future projected batting average, I just couldn't rank him higher based on that belief ...  Yes, he's dominated when it comes to batting average in the minors but look at how often he's been taking (or not taking) walks in the minors ...  I think he's going to be a good player and will be an annual batting title contender but his actual value in terms of run production will be questionable and it will also eventually affect his playing time in the majors and thus, his career totals."

" ... Like Howie Kendrick, the omission of Milledge dominated emails to my inbox this past week ... .preserved his high ranking as late as my mid-2005 BNRA when he was ranked #14 overall. Since then, though, he dropped quite a bit because where I once saw him as a future .300 hitter with 30 home run power and 30+ steal ability, I now see him as a future .290 type with 20 home run ability and 25 stolen base ability. I know it doesn't look like much a difference at first glance but over a full career, it really is as the second type of player usually hangs around baseball for a long time and has a good career but never really challenges for an MVP award or ends up as the cornerstone of a franchise whereas the first type of player often does ... he needs to develop better pitch selection and even with his apparently strong performance in 2005 between Single-A and Double-A, Milledge walked just 33 times in 425 at bats and that must improve before he becomes the superstar some see him as."

" ...   Cain came in at #111, Guzman came in at #201 (and also made my list of the top 25 most overrated prospects) and Zimmerman was at #396. For Cain, I project future serious problems with his control. Under the model, Guzman projects as a good future power hitter who won't hit for average the way some think he will and won't walk often enough, a frequent reason prospects whom others rank highly get lower rankings on my lists. Zimmerman, despite how he looked in 2005, doesn't project as the future batting title contender some have him down for and I only rate his eventual power potential as medium (think 15-20 home runs)."

     John Franco, SportsBlurb, nears the finish line in his marathon of team-by-team prospect reports with the goods on the Colorado system.  Ian Stewart ranks No. 1 with a solid supporting cast :

" ... 2. Troy Tulowitzki ... has a plus arm and good range at shortstop, and displays an intense work ethic and strong desire to succeed ...  should hit for a solid average with 20-30 home runs per year, but his ability to draw walks is less developed. Tulowitzki made his pro debut as a 21-year old at High-A and held his own, batting .266/.343/.457 in 94 at-bats. Given his strong defense, he could push Clint Barmes to second base as early as 2007."

" ... 6. Dexter Fowler ...  has a lean, athletic frame (6’4, 175 pounds) with five-tool potential. He began to switch-hit in 2005 with encouraging results, and batted .273 with 18 extra-base hits in 220 at-bats overall. Fowler has excellent raw power and good speed, he just needs to make better contact in order to be a better hitter. Defensively, he uses his speed well by getting good jumps in centerfield and has a slightly above average arm. His makeup is outstanding and the Rockies believe that a patient approach will create a true five-tool prospect with another season of minor league experience."

     The best of the Low-A studs from Diamond Futures :

1. Hughes Phil           6. Brinkley Dante
2. Patton Troy           7. Nicolas Cesar
3. Hernandez Gabriel     8. Jurrjens Jair
4. Denker Travis         9. Carp Mike
5. Pence Hunter         10. Sutton Drew 

     Tim Polko, RotoHelp, moves to provide details on the kids on the Giants' farm, including :

" ... Matt Cain ...  control problems might worry me if accompanied by a weak hit rate, but even his awful groundball rate can't convince me to stay away. He allowed a measly .151/.240/.239 line in 159 at-bats from NL batters, and with his broad skill base and forgiving SBC Park, Cain should flourish even while gaining needed experience. Only a recurrence of past health problems should keep the budding superstar from securing a rotation slot in spring training and then challenging for Rookie of the Year honors."

" ... Merkin Valdez ...  should develop into a dominant pitcher regardless of his role."

" ... Marcus Sanders ... San Francisco shifted him to shortstop this year, and with no substantial competition in the system, he ranks as the obvious heir to Omar Vizquel. Sanders also owns sufficient SB upside to emerge as one of the top fantasy middle infielders in the game, so a late-round flyer here could pay welcome dividends by 2008."   


20-21 December, 2005

     Thank you for your prayers and your support.  My mom, Jean, passed away last night at Kelowna General Hospital.  She had been in hospital since suffering her third stroke in the last few months.  She passed peacefully.  It was just days before her 87th birthday.  I had the following ready to go so will send it along, but it might be our last update before Christmas.  

     Venezuela - Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4 & 2-4 ... Armando Galarraga TEX 6-1/3 5 3 3 2 2 ... Harold Eckert LAD 9 4 0 0 0 9 ... Chad Gaudin OAK 6-1/3 5 4 3 1 9 ...

Dominican - Erick Aybar LAA 2-4, .323 ... remember when Jose Offerman was the hottest shortstop prospect in baseball? 3-4, 2 homers, .302 ... Wily Mo Pena 1-3, double, .386 ... Joaquin Benoit TEX 5 6 3 3 0 6, 3.38 ... Francisco Rosario TOR 5 2 0 0 2 2 , 2.63 ... Wilson Betemit ATL 2-5, 7th homer, 3 RBI, .294 ... Edison Volquez TEX 6 6 3 1 0 5, 2.21

     Troop movements ... LAD - signed Nomar Garciaparra ... SEA - signed Jarrod Washburn ... PHI - acquired Ricardo Rodriguez from TEX to complete the Padilla trade ... TB - acquired Josh Paul from LAA for 3B Travis Schlichting ... NYA - signed Ramiro Mendoza ... ATL - acquired Matt Diaz from KC for Ricardo F. Rodriguez ... 

     One more highly promising young arm heading for surgery as reported byTracy Ringolsby, Rocky Mountain News :

" ... RIGHT-HANDER SHANE LINDSAY, who emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in the system last summer at short-season Class A Tri-City, has suffered what is believed to be a torn labrum in his right shoulder, which would sideline the Australian native for the 2006 season. The Rockies had a magnetic resonance imaging exam shipped from Australia and plan to bring Lindsay to Denver the week after New Year's to be examined by Dr. Tom Noonan of the Steadman-Hawkins Clinic. Featuring a fastball that has hit 97 mph and a hard curveball, Lindsay was 6-1 with a 1.89 earned-run average in 13 starts at Tri-City, striking out 107 in 67 innings."

     Carlos Quentin sits atop the Arizona prospect ladder in John Franco's picks at SportsBlurb .  And, in a little surprise, Chris Young moves in ahead of Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson.

" ... Quentin is a solid defensive outfielder who uses excellent instincts and good jumps to play an adequate centerfield despite his average speed. He is unlikely to stick as a centerfielder in the majors, but with Chris Young on board and Justin Upton a candidate to play centerfield if he signs, the Diamondbacks are not worried. Quentin has a plus arm and fits well in right field. Offensively, he is a patient hitter with good pitch recognition and excellent raw power."

" ... Young was ranked the White Sox’ No. 1 prospect before being traded to Arizona, and narrowly misses the top spot on the Diamondbacks’ list. He is a dynamic five-tool player with great speed, a plus arm and excellent raw power. Young nearly posted a 30/30 season as a 21-year old at AA, and an oblique strain that cost him two weeks might have been the only thing that stopped him. Young already uses his speed well, stealing 32 bases with an 84 percent success rate and combining his speed with great jumps in center field. He still needs to improve his plate discipline and pitch recognition in order to make more consistent contact, but Young showed the ability to make adjustments during the season at Birmingham."

     Tim Polko, RotoHelp, ranks the best of the youngsters in the SD and PHI systems, including :

" ... Josh Barfield, 22 ...   Although Jesse's son may no longer enjoy unanimous scout support, Barfield continued his march through the system by strongly rebounding for Portland after a down year in the Southern League. With improved plate discipline, power, and surprising speed, he looks like a natural addition to a club on the brink of featuring homegrown potential stars at all four up-the-middle positions. Only the unlikely prospect of severe defensive problems should prevent Barfield from emerging as a capable offensive threat heading towards Rookie of the Year consideration and double-digit draft value."

" ... Cesar Carrillo, 21 ... possesses the skills to follow Tim Stauffer's rise by charging to the majors next summer. With the Padres reasonably likely to remain in playoff competition in the worst division in baseball and a pitching staff filled with injury questions, Carrillo just might debut far sooner than expected. The biggest problem here looks like the 192 innings he accumulated over the course of a year revolving around his selection with the eighteenth pick of the first round in June. However, if he avoids succumbing to injury, he soon should nestle behind Jake Peavy in San Diego's rotation, virtually requiring a fairly high choice in any minor league fantasy draft next spring."

"... George Kottaras, 22 ...  despite perennial defensive questions, Kottaras' offensive upside places him on track to win the starting job in 2007. I don't like his mediocre power due to a general concern about anyone's bat in Petco, but I also see no justification for ignoring his BA and the very impressive plate discipline supporting his averages."

" ... Scott Mathieson, 21 ...  A successful season in Clearwater led to fall berths on Team Canada and the AFL, ranking as the best pitching prospect in Arizona as scouts ignored his 6.92 ERA to focus on an impressive 36:11 K:BB in 26 IP with 34 H and HR allowed to a league loaded with top young hitters. While a lack of upper level depth could force the Phillies to push Mathieson up the organizational ladder, I currently expect him to enjoy most of 2006 in the Eastern League before competing for a big league job no sooner than mid-2007."

" ... Michael Bourn, 22 ... The fleet Bourn skipped high-A and appeared on the cusp of challenging for the Phillies' centerfield job until the club acquired Aaron Rowand. Now Bourn should receive a needed additional year of development time, preparing for a promotion to Philadelphia's leadoff slot in 2007 if the club deals Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu to open a corner slot. With strong speed skills and excellent patience, Bourn could blossom into a $40 player in his fantasy prime."

    Jan Ramirez , InsideTheDugout, tries to answer the question Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the future behind the plate for the Braves.

" ...  McCann projects to be an above average major league catcher, who at the peak of his career hit .260-290 with 20+ homers ... Jarrod projects to be a Jason Varitek/ Victor Martinez player offensively. As I see him hitting 30+ homers and drive in 90-100 RBI’s in the peak of his career ...  while “Salty” has the higher offensive ceiling, the chance that he could change positions evens it out. While Jarrod profiles as an above offensive player whatever position he plays, he does lose some of his value if he moves out of the catcher spot. While McCann will be the guy that forces Saltalamacchia’s position switch if he plays well in 06’, and a catcher with McCann’s offensive skill set is definitely valuable ... In the long run I see McCann holding onto the catcher’s position in Atlanta while Salty moves over to 1st base, both being part of Atlanta’s young nucleus for year’s to come."

    Not much fun for John Franco, SportsBlurb, in reviewing one of the least productive farm systems, the Cardinals' system.  Anthony Reyes takes the top slot :

" ...  Reyes was a college teammate of Cubs’ ace Mark Prior as a freshman in 2000, and actually outpitched Prior that year. Unfortunately, the rest of his college career was hampered by elbow injuries and he never flashed that level of dominance again ...  Despite nagging shoulder injuries that have slowed his progress through his first two years ...  has a good mid-90s fastball and showed good improvement on a diving changeup during the 2005 season; Reyes also has an effective slider, and outstanding command. There is a concern that his throwing motion lends itself to further injury problems down the road, but Reyes has the stuff to lead a rotation if he can stay healthy."

" ... 5. Tyler Greene ... As a college player at Georgia Tech, he showed great offensive tools with shaky defense, but as his defense improved, his hitting numbers suffered. With New Jersey in the NY-Penn League, Greene showed tremendous defense but little offense, hitting .261 in 138 at-bats. The Cardinals jumped him to High-A Palm Beach, and he hit better, posting a .271 average in 85 at-bats. Greene has plus range and great hands at shortstop and his glove is almost ready for the major leagues right now. He is also an excellent baserunner, and projects to develop moderate power as he matures. If Greene can make better contact and learn to use the whole field as a hitter, he will be an outstanding two-way shortstop; his current tools already allow him to be a useful regular with a great glove and mediocre bat."

        Tim Polko, RotoHelp, reviews prospect choices in the HOU system :

" ... Jason Hirsh, 23 ...   jumped from deep on the Astros' pitching depth chart to near the top of the club's best prospects with a superb follow-up to his full-season debut in 2004 ...  effectively dominating the Texas League this summer suggests me could begin succeeding in the majors as soon as next spring ...  owns the skills necessary to break camp in the majors."

" ... Hunter Pence, 22 ...  Taking a realistic look at Pence's performance given his age and league unfortunately dilutes our enthusiasm over his fantasy prospects. He doesn't own great plate discipline, experienced a relative power outage after a logical move to Carolina, and faces plenty of competition for an outfield slot in Houston. The good news is that he remains a patient hitter with plenty of power potential, and if given the opportunity, certainly could blossom in the hitter-friendly environment of Minute Maid."

" ... Troy Patton, 20 ...  Gambling on any young pitcher remains risky, especially on a prospective Astro who still needs to overcome Corpus Christi and Round Rock on his way to Houston. However, Patton demolished both A-ball affiliates, and only a slight drop in his dominance in the Carolina League keeps me from endorsing him at this time. I simply need to see if he can echo these numbers in the upper levels of the system, so if Patton posts a similar performance in the first half, he'll merit significant attention in any league where you can add prospects during the season."

     Alex Wang, InsideTheDugout, handled the review of the COL system (Ian Stewart, Troy Tulowitzki 1-2) :

" ...  3 - Chris Nelson ...  Compared to Gary Sheffield coming out of high school, Chris Nelson struggled in his first full season. Nelson looked overmatched at times put still shows the talent that made him a first round draft pick. Nelson battled injuries throughout the years, but when he’s healthy, Nelson has the potential to be a .300 hitter with 20-25 homeruns. Nelson needs some work on his approach. With Tulowitzki being drafted in the first round, Nelson will likely have to move to a new defensive position. The likely position is right field where his plus arm fits in well."

" ... 6 - Chris Iannetta ...  drafted in the fourth round last year out of North Carolina, had an excellent first full season in the minors. Iannetta showed solid hitting skills in High A before tiring in AA. He shows solid pop and the willingness to take a walk. Iannetta could make more consistent contact. Defensively, Iannetta is above average. Iannetta has a solid arm with good leadership skills. With the Rockies having a hole at catcher in the big leagues, Iannetta could be called up very soon if he can handle AA pitchers."

    Matt Jacovina, WarmOctoberNights, highlights the Yankees' farm crop with Philip Hughes as the top dog :

" ... If not for the infelicitous tendency for young arms to injure their livelihood, Hughes could be touted as a near flawless pitching prospect. Sadly, he’s already had some elbow trouble, leaving spectators holding their breath for his future ...  smooth delivery, which still generates enough power to bring his fastball into the mid-90’s. His slider is another potential plus pitch, with a solid changeup rounding out his arsenal. If his stuff alone doesn’t sell him, he’s also compiled a career 101/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 91.1 innings. With health, Hughes could end up being a true #1."

" ... 2. Eric Duncan ... recently became a full time first baseman ... While this does hurt his value a bit, he obviously wasn’t ever going to push Alex Rodriguez off third, so it’s a smart move by the Yankees. His defense at first should be average at leas ... offensive game is still quite raw and needs considerable seasoning before being given a big league chance. For a player with Duncan’s bat speed and control, his 2005 average of .235 suggests that he was simply not ready for the challenge of AA pitching. In a glimmer of hope for his future, his AFL offense performance was considerably better...  my personal speculation is that Duncan eventually becomes a 35 home run guy, with decent on base and batting average skills."
 

 
 

    
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