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14-15 January, 2006
Dominican playoffs - Juan Cruz Oak 4 6 3 3 2 5 ... Erick Aybar
LAA 1-5, homer ... Victor Diaz NYN 3-5, homer, 4 RBI
Troop movements ... BAL - designated Walter Young for assignment
...
Delmon Young captures another crown - No. 1 in Bryan
Smith's Top 75 at Baseball Analysts (over Jeremy Hermida and Brandon
Wood, with Justin Upton unranked at the time of writing :
"
... Young ... A quick run-down of the six tools: Contact? Check,
lifetime .317 hitter that struck out in just 17.7% of his at-bats, and just
14.4% after being promoted. Power? Oh, c'mon, check. Has more than 50 home runs
in the minors before turning 20, and has the potential to hit for 30 or 40
annually in the Majors. Discipline? Well, this is the question mark. It's been
acceptable in the past, and then fell apart late in the year. No check yet, but
I bet it's coming. Baserunning? Check, over 75% for his career, and was 25/33 in
a half-season at AA. Arm? Check from everyone I've ever talked to. Strong and
accurate, a weapon. Range? Not the best in the minors, but hardly a problem,
check. Number one prospect, two years running? Check."
"
... 7. Carlos Quentin ... After walking just 43 times in 2004,
Quentin added nearly 30 walks to that total this past season. This kept his OBP
high, as predictably, he was hit by only 29 pitches. I've now accepted he will
be hit by a few in the Majors, but it's nice to have the ability to walk in
nearly 13% of your plate appearances, too. At AAA, Quentin also continued to
show his fantastic contact and power skills, while learning the nuances of right
field. It's likely that if the Diamondbacks are out of things early, then they
will start trading veterans (Shawn Green?) to clear spots for players like
Quentin."
"
... 10. Billy Butler ... I believe Butler's bat has more potential
than any in the minor leagues, with maybe the exception of Brandon Wood. It's
not often that a 19-year-old splits time between A+ and AA, and comes out the
other side with 30 home runs. It's not often that he walks 49 times in the
process, and hits .340 ... has the potential to win a batting crown and
home run title before it's all said and done."
Young also took the top spot in the Prospect 100 at BBHQ. Deric McKamey
goes Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Brandon Wood
1-2-3.
Aaron
Gleeman RotoWorld, includes Jeremy Hermida and Matt Cain among
the NL guys most likely to perform like top rookie candidates this season :
" ... It’s an extremely difficult feat
to accomplish these days, but Jeremy Hermida is simultaneously one of the best
prospects in all of baseball and one of the most underrated prospects in all of
baseball. He generally gets lost in the shuffle when discussing elite outfield
prospects ... his 2005 season was among the best in the minors and he
doesn’t turn 22 years old until later this month. Throw in outstanding raw
tools, a very good track record, and what looks like everyday playing time
waiting for him in Florida’s rebuilt lineup, and Hermida is one of the early
favorites for NL Rookie of the Year in 2006."
" ... simply holding your own is
generally the goal for a 20-year-old pitcher at Triple-A, and Cain’s 176
strikeouts in 145.2 innings and .218 opponent’s batting average show that he
was dominant in at least two key areas despite the mediocre ERA. What makes his
2005 season even more impressive is that Cain then went 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in
seven starts with the Giants, all while being the youngest player in the league.
However, before you go handing him the NL Rookie of the Year award, remember
that he walked 19 batters in 46.1 big-league innings to go along with the
Triple-A control issues, which means it may be another couple years before Cain
truly emerges as the ace of San Francisco’s rotation."
Dustin McGowan sits atop the Blue Jays prospect list at Baseball
America. McGowan, then lefties Ricky Romero and David
Purcey 1-2-3.
Joel Guzman LAD, little doubt about his bat, much doubt about his
position :
" ... Guzman showed in the Dominican
Winter League season that his bat is just about ready for the Major Leagues
... moved all around the infield by Estrellas, logging the most innings on
the corners. The Dodgers remain non-committal, not only as to where the
21-year-old Guzman will wind up, but even what position he will play in 2006,
which he will start at Triple-A Las Vegas. "We're coming to a point where
we'll have to make a decision, but the skills he refines while playing shortstop
will serve him regardless of where he ends up," said Roy Smith, vice
president of scouting and player development. "We have a new coaching staff
and we'd like their input." New manager Grady Little and his staff will get
their first real look at Guzman in Spring Training." (MLB.com)
Rangers beginning to get some returns on investments in young pitchers :
"
... In particular, the Rangers are pleased with the progress of pitchers Edison
Volquez and Juan Dominguez ... For the Rangers last
season, Volquez went 0-4 with a 14.21 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. He went 2-0 with a
2.21 ERA in 20 1/3 regular-season innings for the Azucareros in the Dominican
Republic. Volquez struck out 20 batters and issued only four base on balls.
"Based off what can be seen as struggles in big leagues, [Volquez] was able
to adjust as he learned how to pitch on a high level," Lombardo [John
Lombardo, Rangers director of Minor League operations] said. "He took what
he learned and never stopped believing in himself. He adapted, which is a
positive sign." Dominguez, also pitching for the Azucareros, posted a 2.25
ERA in four regular-season innings. Arias hit .318 in 27 regular-season games
with three doubles and two triples. "Juan has built off of the success he
had late in year with Texas," Lombardo said. "He has tried to solidify
his status and is trying to compete for one of the open spots in the
rotation." (MLB.com)
13 January, 2006
Dominican playoffs - after such an impressive season, Erick Aybar 0-5,
.400 ... Andy Marte BOS 0-3, .214
Troop movements ... TB - signed Dan Miceli, designated Franklin
Nunez for assignment ... BAL - signed Kevin Millar
and Franklyn Gracesqui, designated Brian Burres
for assignment ... CLE - designated Brian Tallet for
assignment ... CIN - signed Grant Balfour, designated Josh Hancock
for assignment ...
It gets more and more interesting as Bryan
Smith, Baseball Analysts edges toward the end of his Top 75. In the
11-25 segment,
"
... 15. Alex Gordon ... drafted second overall by the Royals,
signing just in time to make the Arizona Fall League. Scouts were blown away by
Gordon's bat in the short time that he was in the league, despite a good number
of struggles. The organization has decided to keep him at third for now, but a
later positional switch to the outfield or first base is not out of the question
... On draft day, my partner Rich Lederer compared Gordon's bat to Hank
Blalock. In fact, it's likely that Lederer is even selling Gordon short with the
comparison, as he profiles to have even better powe ... The only two
worries surrounding Gordon are contact and defense. The latter should take care
of itself, but the real question is whether Gordon can be a .300 hitter in the
Majors. Given his power and patience, there could be far worse things to have
question marks about."
"
... 21. Joel Guzman ... one of the few minor leaguers who could
move from the middle infield to a corner outfield spot, and still be
above-average offensively. The former big bonus baby has showed massive power in
the last two seasons, hitting a combined 116 extra-base hits in just 953
at-bats. This is a fantastic ratio, and as he builds more muscle, Joel should
also see more of his long hits clear the fence ... contact skills took a
giant step back ... However, Joel has also begun to walk more ... If the
DePo-less Dodgers continue to preach this philosophy, Guzman's power and
patience should make up for substantial contact problems."
"
... 24. Jarrod Saltalamacchia ... For a catcher, Salty has
fantastic power. His .205 Isolated Power in 2005 is just a taste of what he
could provide at the Major League level, in which he should be good for nearly
30 home runs per year. However, while his power was better than his numbers
suggested, his batting average is worse. There is little chance that Jarrod
continues to hit much above .300 without striking out less, as his BABIP was
.362 in 2005. Given pretty fantastic patience for someone his age, this won't be
too bad of a problem, as he can still hit about .280/.360/.540 in the Majors.
Not a great catcher, Jarrod shouldn't have to move from behind the plate,
assuming his skills moderately progress in the coming years."
A little love for Chris Nelson in the COL prospect report by
Matt Jacovina, WarmOctoberNights :
"
... 1. Ian Stewart ...No surprises here. Stewart remains one of the top
hitting prospects in all of baseball, and should thrash AA and later AAA
pitching next season. His defensive ability should be at least enough to stick
at third base, with a shot at becoming a plus defender. Ian's a potential
perennial all-star."
"
... 3. Chris Nelson ... I may be overly optimistic in my
assessment, but I think between the injury-based frustrations and natural
growing pains, it's too early to think of him as a failing prospect. The tools
are there for Nelson to be a star, and while Tulowitzki will likely peg down the
shortstop position, a position switch to either 2B or CF would not only be
possible, but benefit the organization."
"
... 9. Chris Iannetta ... : After starting off fast after
being drafted in 2004, Iannetta faced some doubters who wanted to see him do it
again. Well, he did! Granted, it was just in A ball, but an .871 OPS from a
catcher who has a good defensive reputation is always something to take note of.
Expect him to continue honing his skills in AA this season, and then compete for
a starting job with the Rockies in 2007."
Pirates, with Neil Walker behind schedule, happy to see progress with Sean
Burnett and John Van Benschoten :
" ... No one felt better than
Burnett and Van Benschoten, two of the Pirates' top pitching prospects, each of
whom has made a long climb back from multiple arm surgeries ... Burnett
made 26 pitches -- all fastballs -- to catcher Ryan Doumit, and most appeared to
be on target ... "I thought I was throwing well and throwing for
strikes." Burnett, a left-hander, had reconstructive elbow surgery that cut
short a promising rookie season, then minor shoulder surgery last year. The
Pirates originally forecast he could return in June, but they are encouraged by
his recent progress and have left open the possibility he could make the
rotation out of spring training ... Van Benschoten, a right-hander, had
surgery on both shoulders ... each to repair labrum tears. He said his left
shoulder still bothers him, but neither he nor the team sees that as an
impediment to pitching. He delivered only 15 pitches in an abbreviated session
and estimated he achieved "75 percent velocity," but his control was
no less accurate than Burnett's." (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Thomas Diamond with the Rangers in 2005? A long shot but ...
"
... Still only 22, Diamond recently purchased a home in nearby Plano, Texas, and
spent the offseason working out with weights and improving his conditioning in
order to help him feel "like a grown-up." ... He started the 2005
campaign in Class A Bakersfield, going 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 81 innings during
14 starts. Promoted to Double-A Frisco in June, Diamond went 5-4 with a 5.35 ERA
in 69 innings ... "I thought it went pretty good, although I struggled at
the end of Double-A," he said ... "Last year, it was kind of like,
'Wow, I've watched these guys on television and now I'm at camp with them,'
" he said. "I see it different now. These guys are just like me and
trying to do a job." Diamond's job could be at Triple-A Oklahoma or it
could be with the Rangers in Arlington. Nobody knows for sure. "He's done
everything we have asked for and we will let him develop at his own pace,"
Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "For me, that's a secondary
benefit of all the starters we brought in this offseason. It's going to let
Thomas and some of our other young guys develop, and we are not going to have to
rush them." (MLB.com)
12 January, 2006
Dominican playoffs - Eric Aybar LAA 2-4, 3 runs, .436. Venezuelan
playoffs - Armando Galarraga TEX 3-2/3 4 3 3 2 2
Troop movements ... BOS - signed Julian Tavarez ... TB - signed reliever
Shinji Mori ... PHI - Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez,
Jason Jaramillo among the ST invitees ...
It's the second installment of Bryan
Smith's Top 75 at Baseball Analysts (26-50) - a pair of SPs and a couple of
backstops included :
" ... 48. Hayden Penn ... Looking at his year in retrospect makes me dizzy. In the beginning
of the season, he was the Eastern League's best pitcher, and started to fly up
prospect lists like no other prospect. However, immediately following that, Penn
developed dead arm, and was nearly simultaneously promoted to the Majors. This
resulted in eight very poor starts, when Penn was sent back to Bowie. He
continued to pitch badly, likely due to the dead arm, until the month of August.
For the rest of the season, he was back as one of the minors best pitchers ... Leo Mazzone will be thrilled to see that Penn has such good command of his pitches
this year. His best pitch is a low 90s fastball with good life that Penn can
throw in any spot ... To really succeed in the
Majors, however, Penn must show a better breaking pitch than what he had in the
Majors."
" ... 43. Jeff Clement ... There is no
question that Clement's defense behind the plate is lacking, but he also
improved each year while at USC ...
His power, from the left side I should add, is fantastic. Jeff dominated the
Midwest League after signing, hitting six home runs in less than 120 at-bats.
Inland Empire citizens are surely waiting at the edges of their seats to see
what he does in the Cal League. His problem defensively is not his throwing arm,
which is fine, but instead his movement behind the plate ... My other
Clement concern is that of contact, as he strikes out about 20-25% of the time
... his batting eye is above-average, but not to a great degree. If Clement makes it
to the Majors, it will be on power, period."
" ... 37. Russ Martin ... Dodgers had fallen in love with the catcher, both for the way
he handled their pitchers ... has the best plate discipline in the minor leagues. Sure, Jeremy Hermida might draw more walks and Howie Kendrick might make more consistent
contact, but no one puts it together like Martin ... between being on the bases a lot and playing great
defense, it's no surprise that the Dodgers are excited to make Martin their
full-time catcher soon. Players like him often don't produce a lot of
volatility, so expect pretty consistent production."
" ... 27. John Danks ... seems as if I'm in the minority of believers that John Danks
will be the best of the Rangers trio of pitching prospects. However, I think
Danks will succeed even though the Rangers have not helped the situation. The
team has promoted Danks early in both of his full seasons, leading to
significant struggles at the next level ... At his best, John's fastball (in
the low 90s, with room to improve) is a weapon that he also controls. If
harnessed, he shouldn't be giving up more than about 2.50 walks per nine
innings. However, it seems that in high pressure situations (promotions, the
Futures Game) he loses control, which could simply be learned with more
experience. Danks also has the makings of two more good pitches, including a
fantastic curveball and a solid change up. He shows maturity by having
confidence in both pitches, and as he adds pitchability, I think he will strike
out even more hitters. With a little guidance, the Rangers will be able to turn
Danks into a #2 starter. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he's in the right
organization."
Kevin Melillo, Hunter Pence, Eric Patterson
among the picks in the latest installment (81 to 90) of
Dayn Perry's Top 100 at
FoxSports :
" ... 81. Kevin Melillo ...
In two minor league seasons, Melillo has a career SLG of .539 ... also
controls the strike zone well and shows some speed on the bases. His bat most
certainly profiles as an asset at the highest level, but the question is whether
his glove will allow him to remain at second. If he does stick at the keystone,
he has All-Star potential, but even if he's forced to third base Melillo will be
a quality major leaguer."
" ... 84. Hunter Pence ... one
of the niftiest under-the-radar position prospects around. Pence's tools don't
wow scouts, but last season he utterly dismantled the Sally League (.338 AVG/.413
OBP/.652 SLG). Granted the Sally League is lowest of full-season circuits and
shouldn't pose grave problems to a college-trained hitter ... but those
numbers comfortably exceed even those standards. He hit 31 homers across two
levels last season, but some observers think his perfectly awkward swing won't
translate to the higher levels. That remains to be seen. Right now, however,
Pence looks good going forward."
" ... 86. Eric Patterson ...
Here's one to watch ... authored a batting line of .333 AVG/.405 OBP/.535
SLG in the Midwest League, and in the process he claimed the league's batting
title and won the organization's Minor League Player of the Year honors.
Patterson also runs the bases well and figures to stick at second for good.
Obviously, he has good power for a middle infielder."
Baseball America highlights the TB farm with few surprises on the Top 10 -
Delmon Young, Jeff Niemann,
Jason Hammel
1-2-3.
Pirates' Neil Walker likely to miss a significant portion of Spring
Training :
" ... The 20-year-old switch-hitting catcher is
working out daily at the Pirate City training facility as he recovers from Nov.
28 surgery that repaired a torn ligament on the outside of his left wrist. "It's
a disappointment to have surgery but I'm trying to look on the bright side of
things," Walker said ... While the long-term outlook for Walker is fine,
the near-term picture isn't as rosy as it could be. The Pirates originally hoped
Walker would be healed in time for the start of spring training next month ...
Walker has been told that once the cast is off that he will likely need six
weeks before he is cleared for full baseball activity, leaving early March as
the target date." (Beaver County Times)
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, on Clint Everts, Hanley Ramirez :
Clint Everts, WAS " ... Everts did make it back last
year, for a total of 35 innings in the Gulf Coast League and New York-Penn
League. He is healthy, though he has lost a couple of ticks on his fastball, at
least for now. The Nationals are hoping the velocity will return and that he can
jump up to Double-A ... I would say 2007 is when you're likely to see him, if all goes well,
in Washington."
Hanley Ramirez, FLO " ... His numbers in Winter Ball
have been so-so. He is capable of being one of the better all-around shortstops
in baseball. He can hit for average, he can run, he's got some pop ... certainly can make the play with the glove.
But it's all in his hands ... He's still
very young, so he could still mature. Maybe being handed a big league job, one
of two things will happen: 1. He'll get serious about it because that's what he
wants or 2. He'll think he's got it made. We'll have to wait and see what
happens with him this year in Florida."
With some hesitation, it's Cole Hamels atop
David Regan's PHI Top 20 at RotoAmerica
:
" ... Quite a year for Mr. Hamels. Hamels as you recall,
dropped to the Phillies in the 2002 draft due to concerns over a broken left arm
suffered as a sophomore in High School. Three years later, he’s made just 28
total appearances for the various Phillies minor league affiliates ... pulled muscle – right shoulder, pulled
muscle – right triceps (causing him to miss most of 2004), broken left hand (bar
fight – nice Cole), and stress fracture in his back. Ugh. Despite that, he still
has the most upside of anyone in the system. He’s got three above average
pitches: low 90s fastball, plus curve, and a great change. Commands all three
well when he’s on his game. Poised and confident beyond his years. The Phillies
still love his stuff and envision him at the top of their rotation someday. Of
recent concern, Hamels saw a doctor earlier this month and was diagnosed with
inflammation in his back (different area from the stress fracture) and as a
result, had a cortisone shot. Doesn’t sound good."
" ... #3 Gio Gonzalez ... Probably doesn’t get the proper respect he deserves from
scouts due to his smallish 5’11” frame and lack of a dominant fastball. Gonzalez
also missed time this year with shoulder and back problems, so durability is a
major concern going forward ... Fastball sits
in the 91-94 range and his curve ranks as one of the best in the minors. Further
refinement is needed on his change, but he’s got a nice set of pitches and you
certainly can’t argue with the K rate ... Should be tasting the bigs by September 2007.
"
Scott Rex, OnDeck, has been busy,
updating the Arizona Top 40 and adding the lists for WAS and SF :
San Francisco Washington Arizona
Cain Matt Zimmerman Ryan Drew Stephen
Sanders Marcus Balester Collin Upton Justin
Martinez-Esteve Eddy Everts Clint Jackson Conor
Valdez Merkin Desmond Ian Quentin Carlos
Griffin Daniel Hinckley Mike Young Chris
Sanchez Jonathan Bray Bill Gonzales Carlos
Martis Shairon Rasner Darrell Nippert Dustin
Ortmeier Dan Casto Kory Montero Miguel
Schierholtz Nate Diaz Frank Carter Chris
Ishikawa Travis Thompson Daryl Torra Matt
William Calvin, InsideTheDugout,
tabs Felix Pie as the top young Cubbie in the sites latest prospect
report (perhaps written before the Cubs acquisitions of Jacques Jones, Juan
Pierre).
" ... With the recent departure of Corey Patterson, it
almost seems inevitable that Pie will be tossed into the Cubs starting lineup in
2006. With blazing speed, pretty good plate discipline and the ability to hit at
a .280-.290 average, expect Pie to be the Cubs leadoff man this coming spring.
In 2005 Pie was able to show off some of his raw power with 11 dingers, and we
fully expect him to reach 20 homeruns in 2006 maybe even 2007.
" ... 3- Angel Guzman ... still trying to overcome a slight
labrum tear in his pitching shoulder suffered back in 2003. The Cubs were very
cautious with Angel, shutting him down in July 2004 so that he may rehab his
tiresome forearm. The Cubs brought him back n 2005 only to have him shut it down
again after only 19 innings of pitching. Some still question his durability, but
the Cubs are confident that he will regain his 91-96 mph fastball before the
2006 season kicks off this spring."
Dan Szymborski,
BaseballThinkFactory, wraps up his team-by-team projections with a look at
the Nationals. Ryan Zimmerman gets a projection of .309 .343
.481, 7 homers in 291 ABs. The compilation is to be available later this
week.
Dallas McPherson takes a hit in the latest moves by the Angels :
" ... Darin Erstad was recently told by Manager Mike Scioscia
that he would be moving from first base back to center field, a switch that will
open first base for prospect Casey Kotchman ... Erstad's return to the outfield
probably will push Chone Figgins ... to third
base and reduce McPherson, who is recovering from hip surgery, to a reserve
third base and part-time designated hitter role ... Though
McPherson should be ready for spring training — he is throwing, taking ground
balls and running at three-quarters speed — that didn't prevent the Angels from
acquiring backup third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo in December. "That's only
natural," McPherson said Tuesday, when asked if he felt the Angels had lost some
confidence in him. "They want to make sure their bases are covered. All I can do
is control the things I can control, and right now, that's getting healthy." (LA Times)
Tim Polko, RotoHelp, lists a
pair of youngsters in his second installment of AL second basemen :
" ... Aaron Hill ... Problems with
right-handed pitching caused Hill to struggle while playing every day, but
hopefully his new, unquestioned starting job as Orlando Hudson's replacement at
second will provide the platform he needs to work through those difficulties.
However, while his plate discipline virtually insures a helpful BA, he possesses
no more than minimal speed and little short-term power potential. Viewing him as
anything more than a significant gamble prior to 2007 looks like a mistake."
" ... Jose Lopez ... move to second
base finally insures Lopez a starting job, a welcome development for someone
virtually ready for the majors a year ago ... even if he experiences more growing pains due to his limited
patience, he still should develop into a star. If you can weather the initial BA
drag, acquiring Lopez anywhere around $5 will net you a nice long-term starter
for your team. Think Jorge Cantu with better defense."
The book is
at the printers! It is scheduled to be shipped in early February.
This will be the 11th annual prospect book for John. It's one of the
season's most anxiously awaited baseball publications. It ships in early
February with pre-orders now being taken.
Order here.
11 January, 2006
Dominican playoffs - Erick Aybar LAA 1-3, walk, .431 ... Victor
Diaz NYN 2-4, homer, 2 RBI, .383 Venezuela playoffs -
Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4, triple ... Tony Armas WAS 5
4 3 3 0 1 ... Ronny Cedeno CHN 4-7, triple, 3 RBI, .375
Troop movements ... CLE - Eduardo Perez signing announced ... TB - signed
Ty Wigginton ... SD - announced the signing of Shawn Estes ...
Ah, it's beginning to feel like Spring as
Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts,
kicks off his annual Top 75 prospect list ! We've come to expect solid,
analytical pieces from Bryan and this is no exception. He begins with
numbers 51-75. Among the choices :
" ... 69. Jason Hirsh ... Besides Jon
Lester and Francisco Liriano, no pitcher broke out in 2005 more than Jason Hirsh
... proceeded to have a season in which he was named as the Texas League
Pitcher of the Year, and was promptly added to the Houston 40-man roster. The
key for Hirsh seemed to be a decline in his walk rate, as the big right-hander
shaved his BB/9 almost in half ... Coming out of college, Hirsh was a pitching
coach's dream. He had the pitcher's body at 6-8, 250, and was blessed with
velocity in the mid-90s. However, there was little control and little secondary
stuff. A year later, neither of that is true. Hirsh's curve was raved about in
2005, and as I said, his control was much improved this year ... If the Astros
continue to implement young players onto their roster, look for Hirsh to get his
chance in 2007."
" ... 66. Carlos Gonzales ...
in 2005, Gonzales took off like few other prospects in minor league baseball. He
was the most impressive player in the Midwest League ... Gonzales tends to
have every skill in the book, just not every one is fully developed. His contact
abilities improved greatly in 2005, as his career average jumped 40 points and
his K% was down to under 17%. He showed Major League power, hitting 52 XBH,
including 18 home runs as a teenager. Carlos began to walk more, drawing 48 free
passes and bringing his OBP north of .370. And while he doesn't have
extraordinary speed, Gonzales is seen as a good center fielder. I'll remain
skeptical about Gonzales for another year, but if all of this is for real, he
could jump about 40 spots in 365 days."
" ... 63. Jeff Niemann ... The San
Diego Padres have to be more upset with the Rice University baseball program
than anyone else. After Jeff Niemann's sophomore season, it was no contest that
Niemann was the best player in the draft. Had the draft been a year early, the
team would have been forced to take Niemann. There would have been an uproar if
ownership ordered for anything else. The 6-9 rightie had led Rice through the
College World Series ranks and capped off a 17-0 season with a 1.70 ERA. He was
frightening. But soon, he would be hurt, and it still seems as the injury that
followed his sophomore season is still causing problems today ...
It's just too hard to give up on a guy that used to touch 99. It's hard to quit
on a guy that once had a power curve that would have reinvented the word.
Alright, I'm exaggerating, but really, it's a pity this kid's stuff isn't what
it used to be. Even with regression, Niemann still has an impressive two-pitch
combination, but really needs to be healthy to completely prove that to us ...
Devil Rays took a risk drafting Niemann in the top five, but if any arm has the
chance to pay them dividends, it's Niemann's."
" ... 60. Scott Elbert ...
Of all my choices, this is the one I think I might end up pinching myself for
most in one season. Not in a good way. Why? Because the Dodgers do this every
year ... They bring some hard-throwing southpaw with big numbers to the
table, and we become amazed. However, there isn't a great track record for these
players. Sooner or later, I think, that trend will break, and one of these
pitchers will maximize his potential ... . If pitchers only needed two
pitches, this guy would be great. His low-90s fastball has good life, and his
slider is at times devastating. However, to be a starter, a prospect needs a
third pitch, which Elbert lacks. There have been few advancements in that
category in a year, and without it, Elbert has a future in the bullpen ... But
the reason you see Elbert so high on the list is that I think that even a good
career in relief would be a disappointment."
Justin Upton, a shortstop ... for at least another season.
" ... By the time Upton, 18, is ready for major
league duty - it could be fewer than two full seasons - Arizona figures to
already have another top-flight prospect manning short in Stephen Drew, a
first-round pick in 2004. Picking one over the other to play short could be
difficult. But upon formally announcing the signing of Upton to a
five-year deal worth a record $6.1 million ... Byrnes [ARZ General Manager
Josh Byrnes] vowed that Drew and Upton will get chances to develop strictly as
shortstops until such time as a new decision needs to be made. "We'll cross that
bridge when we come to it," Byrnes said ... "I've played shortstop
all my life and that's the position I want to play," Upton said, adding that
he's ready for the scrutiny that is sure to follow as the No. 1 overall pick.
"If there's any questions, I'll have to change those speculations. I'll go to
camp and work as hard as I can at my position and if a change comes, then a
change does come." (Arizona Republic)
Mets get some encouraging words from sick bay :
" ... Philip Humber, the Mets' 2004 first-round
pick who is coming off Tommy John surgery last July, said he's been throwing off
flat ground for a month and does not feel any discomfort. Said Humber, "I feel
relief, more than anything, that the surgery has worked." (Newsday)
Chris Snelling, on the comeback trail, again :
" ... Word from the Mariners is that Snelling is in Arizona
rehabbing from the torn anterior cruciate ligament and subsequent reconstructive
surgery in his left knee that ended his 2005 season prematurely ... with
the normal recovery rate from this injury, it's possible that if everything goes
as planned with Snelling's rehab, we could see him on the field sometime in
2006, but probably not until at least the All-Star break. As for the team's
plans with Snelling, it's hard to gauge because the Mariners still haven't
gotten the chance to see him for even half a season ... the Mariners are
big fans of his plate discipline and his ability to hit to situations. Snelling
hit .370 for Triple-A Tacoma in 2005 with ... 17 doubles, two triples, eight
home runs ... in 65 games." (MLB.com)
10 January, 2006
Dominican playoffs ... Andy Marte BOS 1-4, double ... Venezuela -
Alberto Callaspo LAA 1-4 :
" ... Catcher Miguel Montero continued his
impressive winter by hitting .284 with 10 doubles, six homers and 22 RBIs for
Occidente in the Venezuela Winter League. The 22-year-old began the offseason by
hitting .421 with two homers and nine RBIs in six games in the Arizona Fall
League. Montero is expected to start off the 2006 season with Double-A
Tennessee, and he could be in the big leagues as soon as 2007." (MLB.com)
" ... Yusmeiro Petit: A promising starter,
Petit will get a shot at cracking the Marlins' rotation in Spring Training. The
right-hander is excelling for Magallanes in Venezuela. In nine games, Petit is
5-1 with a 2.01 ERA. He's thrown 49 1/3 innings, striking out 43 while walking
just eight. "What we hear about Petit is he throws strikes and makes them put
the ball in play," Fleming said. "In close to 50 innings, he's walked eight. His
fastball is deceptive and he's a really good pitcher." Petit's fastball doesn't
dazzle, but he has a knack for getting outs and winning at whatever level he has
pitched."
Troop movements ... MIN - signed Darrell May to a minor league contract
... WAS - signed Michael Tucker ... NYN - signed 1st round pick
Mike Pelfrey ... MIL - designated Russell Branyan for
assignment ... BAL - acquired Corey Patterson from CHN for Nate
Spears and Carlos Perez ...
John Manuel, Baseball America, reports the Mets have
signed first round pick Mike Pelfrey :
" ... One source with knowledge of the negotiations
... indicated Pelfrey received a signing bonus of around $3.5 million
... with a contract guaranteeing Pelfrey $5.3 million...
Pelfrey, 6-foot-7, 215 pounds, was the ninth overall pick. BA ranked him as the
top pitcher in the draft, and he fell to No. 9 overall mostly due to his
perceived price tag ... His signing will be in plenty of time for him to
report to his first spring training. The Mets started their 2004 first-rounder,
Philip Humber, at high Class A St. Lucie, also a likely destination for
Pelfrey’s pro debut."
Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts,
kicks off his prospect week and Top 75 with an outstanding first installment,
reviews of 25 guys who just missed the cut.
" ... Ryan Braun - 3B/OF ... On
draft day, I talked about how there were only three other Miami hitters with
bigger numbers: Pat Burrell, Jason Michaels and Aubrey Huff. The latter is the
best comparison you can make for Braun. Neither plays defense well, and if not
now, it's likely that Braun will move from third to right field at some point.
However, with bad defense is also a fantastic bat with all the strengths. While
neither his discipline or contact rates were great in his debut, expect them
both to improve in Braun's full-season debut. He also has power that rivals
anyone in the minors, and should one day create quite a tandem with Prince
Fielder. However, unlike a few of the other college draftees, it's presumptuous
to believe that Braun will fly through the minors."
" ... Eric Campbell - 3B ... the
short-season performance of the year goes to...Eric Campbell ... with
Marte's exit, this guy is the top 3B in the system ... biggest calling
card is big-time power. In 2005, over half of his hits and 17.6% of Eric's
at-bats went for extra bases. Both of those are pretty dazzling percentages.
Besides power, Campbell is a pretty average player. His contact skills aren't
great -- his strikeout rate is about 25% -- and as a result, he should be a 100
K-per-year player. Eric walked in just under 10% of his plate appearances, and
with maturity, discipline could even become a strength."
" ... Christian Garcia - SP ...
another one of my breakout prospects. Some of you may be surprised that I rank
Garcia third in the Yankee system ... Certainly there are maturity
obstacles to overcome before a player can breakout, but I see it happening with
Garcia ... pitchers with high strikeout and groundball rates succeed. Line
drives and flyballs simply fall in for hits too much, so I often tend to favor
power-sink pitchers. Garcia is just that. His velocity has been throughout the
90s in the minors, but should settle in the 94-96 region before too long. I've
also heard fantastic reports about his curveball, which rivals Clippard's for
the system's best."
" ... Andrew McCutchen - OF ...
considered the best athlete to come from Florida since Lastings Milledge. The
combination of his speed and ceiling were unmatched in this draft, leading the
Bucs to dream of him covering one of the biggest left fields in the Majors ...
McCutchen's primary tool is his speed. This will help him become an outfielder
capable of great CF defense (or LF), while also stealing a lot of bases. In his
short time after signing with Pittsburgh, Andrew went 17/19 on the bases ...
McCutchen's speed and his discipline are refined tools. At the plate, he managed
to draw 37 walks (against 30 strikeouts!) in 210 at-bats. Not only does
McCutchen make great contact, but his discipline also provides a future batting
leadoff. His power will never be a great skill, but should develop enough for
him to hit 10-15 homers and more than 30 doubles per year. Given his leadoff
skills and outfield defense, this should be more than enough."
Baseball Amercia ranks the top
Yankee youngsters and there's a new face atop the chart - Philip Hughes,
Eric Duncan, Jose Tabata, 1-2-3 :
" ... While Duncan remains a good prospect, he was
passed by 2004 first-round pick Philip Hughes, who symbolizes the state of the
system. In the last two years, New York has added high-end prospects at the
lower levels with international signings and a more aggressive approach in the
draft. The organization has potential impact bats such as outfielders Jose
Tabata and Austin Jackson and infielders C.J. Henry and Eduardo Nunez, as well
as intriging arms in Hughes, Christian Garcia and Jeff Marquez.
Scott Rex, OnDeck, picks the best of the Cubbies farm and likes Felix Pie,
Mark Pawelek and Angel Guzman 1-2-2. Rich
Hill and Ryan Harvey ranked 4-5.
Dan Szymborski, BaseballThinkFactory, has his projections for the Blue Jays.
Guillermo Quiroz has a predicted line of .236 .311 .438, 12 homers in 258
ABs ... Dustin McGowan 2-4, 5.55 in 94 innings.
09 January, 2006
Dominican
playoffs - WilyMoPena CIN 2-4 ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-4
... Rafael Soriano SEA 2 2 0 0 0 0 ... Edison Volquez
TEX 4-1/3 6 4 3 0 4
Venezuelan playoffs - Fernando Nieve HOU 5 3
2 1 1 4 1 ... Armando Galarraga TEX 5-1/3 3 3 3 3 2 ... Franklin
Gutierrez CLE 2-4, double, homer
Troop
movements ... CIN - re-signed Rich Aurilia ...
Bryan
Smith, Baseball Analysts, includes a TOR hitter and CIN pitcher among his
picks as 2006 breakout candidates. It's the rollup to his Top 75 list which
comes this week.
" ... Adam Lind ... No glove, all bat guy
that was one of the minors more prolific doubles hitters. However, for about one
month, he showed that there is plenty of potential for home runs."
" ... Homer Bailey ... 2004 top ten pick, Bailey
struggled with command in the Midwest League. His two-pitch combination should
allow him to take off once he becomes more refined."
OF
Jerry Owens CHA adds a solid winter ball season to his campaign to win a
spot with the WSox :
" ... By Owens' admission, he's an improved player simply
because of his two months in Venezuela. After tearing up the Southern League in
2005 at a league-leading .331 clip for Double-A Birmingham, with 173 hits and 38
stolen bases, Owens hit .356 with a team-high 11 stolen bases for La Guaira. He
worked extensively on the small game -- bunting, stealing bases and scoring runs
-- that has made him so valuable ... If Owens doesn't look as if he will make
the team, he will be sent to Minor League camp to prepare for his first season
with Charlotte. But Owens places his goal at nothing short of starting for the
White Sox in 2006. "I don't like lack of experience being used as an excuse for
me, because I've come a long way over the last few years," Owens said. "I'm
honored to be talked about in the outfield plans for the team that just won the
World Series." (MLB.com)
It
took until the third installment on NL shortstops for
Tim Polko, RotoHelp, to note
some kids who might get some playing time in 2006 :
" ... Ronny Cedeno ... Age: 22 ... rocked PCL pitching
this summer, unexpectedly compiling a .351/.399/.514 performance for AAA Iowa
with 8 HR, 36 RBI, an 11/14 SB%, and a 20:31 BB:K. He somehow maintained that
production in the majors, even demonstrating decent patience ... In
spite of a missed opportunity to secure a starting job due to a September broken
hand, Cedeno still should open the year as a starting middle infielder, most
likely as Chicago's shortstop but potentially at second base or somewhere like
Baltimore."
" ... Omar Quintanillla, 24 ... continued
producing for Colorado Springs before an opening with the Rockies forced him to
the majors ahead of schedule. He contributed little in any aspect of the game,
displaying far worse defense than Clint Barmes while scarcely breaking a .500
OPS. The good news is that Quintanilla still qualifies as a rookie, demonstrated
decent plate discipline, and still could emerge as the long-term solution at
second base. Luis A. Gonzalez is not a serious option beyond 2006, so while
Quintanilla needs to weather the approach of Jeff Baker, Ian Stewart, Troy
Tulowitzki, and Chris Nelson, all of whom could push Barmes or Garrett Atkins to
the right side of the infield, he remains an intriguing prospect with plenty of
upside."
In
MIL, still some thoughts about Billy Hall or Rickie Weeks moving
to CF.
" ... Melvin knew it would be something of a gamble
to go with a young infield of Hall (26), shortstop J.J. Hardy (23), second
baseman Rickie Weeks (23) and rookie first baseman Prince Fielder (21). With the
addition of Koskie, who also can play first base, Hall is available again to
fill in for Hardy or Weeks. Should the Brewers decide not to commit to Brady
Clark for the long term, there have been internal discussions about moving
either Hall or Weeks to center field at some point. "We don't want to give up
yet (on Weeks at second)," Melvin said. "If Rickie can play second, you have a
much more productive player than you usually have there. And we think we can get
Billy at-bats. Not everybody is going to play all 162 games." (Milwaukee
Journal-Sentinel)
One-time
top PIT prospect Sean Burnett ready to resume mound duties :
" ... The highlight of the Pirates' minicamp that
opens Tuesday in Bradenton, Fla., will come when starter Sean Burnett throws off
a mound Wednesday or Thursday. It will be his first such attempt since two arm
surgeries caused him to miss all of last season. He said he has been
long-tossing without pain for six weeks and that his goal is to immediately
rejoin the rotation. "I'm going to fight for that job," Burnett said. "I feel
great." The Pirates are not ruling out he could pull it off, but Littlefield has
projected a return of early June as most likely." (Pittsburgh
Post-Gazette)
A
couple of rookies with a shot for rotation spots in HOU :
" ... the Astros will have to find two
more starters behind a still formidable trio of Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and
Brandon Backe. Right now they are looking at Wandy Rodriguez (10-10, 5.53
ERA) and Ezequiel Astacio (3-6, 5.67), but the Astros also have
high hopes for right-hander Fernando Nieve, who was 8-7 with a
3.72 ERA in 27 minor league starts last season, and right-hander Taylor
Buchholz. Buchholz was acquired in the Billy Wagner trade with the
Philadelphia Phillies but has been trying to overcome his own shoulder issues.
He was 6-0 with a 4.81 ERA for Triple A Round Rock and then had a 1.57 ERA in
the Arizona Fall League. Rodriguez and Astacio will likely get first shot while
Nieve works out of the bullpen and Buchholz starts at Triple A. But both could
be in the rotation before season's end, unless Clemens decides to come back."
(Star-Telegram, Fort Worth)
Dan
Szymborski, BaseballThinkFactory, has the TEX projections online. A
modest rookie campaign is predicted for second baseball Ian Kinsler - 19
homers, but ..248 .310 .431. Infielder Marshall McDougall has a
forecast of 14 homers, .276 .352 .454. Thomas Diamond carries a
projection of 7-7, 4.67 in 135 innings, John Danks 8-9, 5.36 in 151
innings.
07-08 January, 2006
Dominican
playoffs ... Erick Aybar LAA 3-5, triple, 3 RBI ... Joaquin
Benoit TEX 3 3 2 2 0 4. Venezuela playoffs - Wilfredo
Ledezma DET 5 1 0 0 3 4 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-5
Troop
movements ... MIL - acquired Corey Koskie from TOR for Brian
Wolfe ... KC - designated Kyle Snyder and Devon
Lowery for assignment ... CHN - Bobby Brownlie, Brandon
Sing among the NRIs ... LAA - Brandon Wood, Jered
Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Michael Collins among the
NRIs ... COL - signed Byung-Hyun Kim, acquired Josh
Wilson from FLO ... PHI - claimed Josh Kroeger off waivers
from ARZ ... BAL - claimed Brian Burres off waivers from SF ...
NYA - Ben Davis among the NRIs ... ARZ - signed top 2005
draft pick Justin Upton ... BOS - signed JT Snow
" ... Two years after leaving the Gophers to sign with the
Twins, Glen Perkins has a big league spring training invite. Perkins, 22,
will likely get a brief taste of big league camp before heading back to the
minors. A first-round pick in the 2004 draft (No. 22 overall), he advanced to
Class AA New Britain last season."
" ... [Jered] Weaver heads to camp more than
just a hopeful as he will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation primarily
with Hector Carrasco, Kevin Gregg, Joe Saunders and Chris Bootcheck. The Angels'
first pick of the 2004 draft, Weaver was a combined 7-4 with a 3.91 ERA in 15
starts last year over two Minor League stops. The right-hander also made a good
showing in the Arizona Fall League. Wood led all Minor Leaguers by
hitting 43 homers at Class A Rancho Cucamonga last season. He also shared the
California League lead with 115 RBIs and was tops in the circuit with 50
doubles, 109 runs scored and a .667 slugging percentage. Selected first by the
Angels in 2003, Wood hit 14 homers to set a new AFL mark this past fall." (MLB.com)
ARZ
gets its No. 1 draft pick. Justin
Upton adds to an already deep D'backs farm system :
" ... The deal includes a $6.1 million signing bonus
payable over five years, the largest-ever sum for a drafted player on a
minor-league contract. ... Arizona announced the agreement Friday and said
Upton will be introduced at a news conference Monday. "This is a significant
step for our organization and we look forward to seeing this talented young man
in uniform," Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said." (USA Today)
Andy
Marte moves from No. 1 in ATL to No. 1 in BOS as Baseball America unveils
its top 10 for the Red Sox. SPs Jon Lester and Jonathan
Papelbon ranked 2-3, RP Craig Hansen was 4th ahead of 2B/SS
Dustin Pedroia.
Aaron
Gleeman, RotoWorld, highlights SEA's Kenji Jojima and Jason Kubel
MIN among the AL rooks to watch in 2006 :
" ... Jojima is a rookie by MLB
standards, but he is actually a 30-year-old veteran with 11 years of big-league
experience over in Japan. One of the best catchers in Japanese baseball history
... .299 career batting average and 211 homers in 1,117 games, including
five straight 20-homer seasons and a monster .330-34-119 year in 2003. Of
course, those big numbers deflate pretty quickly once you begin to adjust for
American competition .. he looks like a .275 hitter with 15-homer power.
That’s still very valuable in a catcher, which is why he could end up being one
of this season’s best fantasy sleepers."
" ... The Twins seemed prepared to hand Jason
Kubel a starting job heading into 2005, but he suffered a massive knee
injury while playing in the Arizona Fall League and ended up missing the entire
season. There is still some uncertainty surrounding his status ... Assuming
Kubel is close to healthy, he’s almost lock to play regularly for the
offense-starved Twins. He was the team’s minor-league player of the year in
2004, hitting .347 with 24 homers and 17 steals between Double-A, Triple-A, and
the majors."
Scott
Rex, OnDeck, offers his picks as the best of the STL farm - Anthony Reyes,
Mark McCormick, Colby Rasmus 1-2-3.
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