Rookies 2006

                                                                                                                           Pitching Line = IP H R ER BB SO
 


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14-15 January, 2006

     Dominican playoffs - Juan Cruz Oak 4 6 3 3 2 5 ... Erick Aybar LAA 1-5, homer ... Victor Diaz NYN 3-5, homer, 4 RBI 

     Troop movements ... BAL - designated Walter Young for assignment ... 

     Delmon Young captures another crown - No. 1 in Bryan Smith's Top 75 at Baseball Analysts (over Jeremy Hermida and Brandon Wood, with Justin Upton unranked at the time of writing :

" ... Young ...  A quick run-down of the six tools: Contact? Check, lifetime .317 hitter that struck out in just 17.7% of his at-bats, and just 14.4% after being promoted. Power? Oh, c'mon, check. Has more than 50 home runs in the minors before turning 20, and has the potential to hit for 30 or 40 annually in the Majors. Discipline? Well, this is the question mark. It's been acceptable in the past, and then fell apart late in the year. No check yet, but I bet it's coming. Baserunning? Check, over 75% for his career, and was 25/33 in a half-season at AA. Arm? Check from everyone I've ever talked to. Strong and accurate, a weapon. Range? Not the best in the minors, but hardly a problem, check. Number one prospect, two years running? Check."

" ... 7. Carlos Quentin ...  After walking just 43 times in 2004, Quentin added nearly 30 walks to that total this past season. This kept his OBP high, as predictably, he was hit by only 29 pitches. I've now accepted he will be hit by a few in the Majors, but it's nice to have the ability to walk in nearly 13% of your plate appearances, too. At AAA, Quentin also continued to show his fantastic contact and power skills, while learning the nuances of right field. It's likely that if the Diamondbacks are out of things early, then they will start trading veterans (Shawn Green?) to clear spots for players like Quentin."

" ... 10. Billy Butler ...  I believe Butler's bat has more potential than any in the minor leagues, with maybe the exception of Brandon Wood. It's not often that a 19-year-old splits time between A+ and AA, and comes out the other side with 30 home runs. It's not often that he walks 49 times in the process, and hits .340 ...  has the potential to win a batting crown and home run title before it's all said and done."

     Young also took the top spot in the Prospect 100 at BBHQ.  Deric McKamey goes Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Brandon Wood 1-2-3.   

     Aaron Gleeman RotoWorld, includes Jeremy Hermida and Matt Cain among the NL guys most likely to perform like top rookie candidates this season :

" ...  It’s an extremely difficult feat to accomplish these days, but Jeremy Hermida is simultaneously one of the best prospects in all of baseball and one of the most underrated prospects in all of baseball. He generally gets lost in the shuffle when discussing elite outfield prospects ...  his 2005 season was among the best in the minors and he doesn’t turn 22 years old until later this month. Throw in outstanding raw tools, a very good track record, and what looks like everyday playing time waiting for him in Florida’s rebuilt lineup, and Hermida is one of the early favorites for NL Rookie of the Year in 2006."

" ...  simply holding your own is generally the goal for a 20-year-old pitcher at Triple-A, and Cain’s 176 strikeouts in 145.2 innings and .218 opponent’s batting average show that he was dominant in at least two key areas despite the mediocre ERA. What makes his 2005 season even more impressive is that Cain then went 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven starts with the Giants, all while being the youngest player in the league. However, before you go handing him the NL Rookie of the Year award, remember that he walked 19 batters in 46.1 big-league innings to go along with the Triple-A control issues, which means it may be another couple years before Cain truly emerges as the ace of San Francisco’s rotation."

     Dustin McGowan sits atop the Blue Jays prospect list at Baseball America.  McGowan, then lefties Ricky Romero and David Purcey 1-2-3. 

     Joel Guzman LAD, little doubt about his bat, much doubt about his position :

" ...  Guzman showed in the Dominican Winter League season that his bat is just about ready for the Major Leagues ...  moved all around the infield by Estrellas, logging the most innings on the corners. The Dodgers remain non-committal, not only as to where the 21-year-old Guzman will wind up, but even what position he will play in 2006, which he will start at Triple-A Las Vegas. "We're coming to a point where we'll have to make a decision, but the skills he refines while playing shortstop will serve him regardless of where he ends up," said Roy Smith, vice president of scouting and player development. "We have a new coaching staff and we'd like their input." New manager Grady Little and his staff will get their first real look at Guzman in Spring Training." (MLB.com)

     Rangers beginning to get some returns on investments in young pitchers :

" ... In particular, the Rangers are pleased with the progress of pitchers Edison Volquez and Juan Dominguez  ...  For the Rangers last season, Volquez went 0-4 with a 14.21 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. He went 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in 20 1/3 regular-season innings for the Azucareros in the Dominican Republic. Volquez struck out 20 batters and issued only four base on balls. "Based off what can be seen as struggles in big leagues, [Volquez] was able to adjust as he learned how to pitch on a high level," Lombardo [John Lombardo, Rangers director of Minor League operations] said. "He took what he learned and never stopped believing in himself. He adapted, which is a positive sign." Dominguez, also pitching for the Azucareros, posted a 2.25 ERA in four regular-season innings. Arias hit .318 in 27 regular-season games with three doubles and two triples. "Juan has built off of the success he had late in year with Texas," Lombardo said. "He has tried to solidify his status and is trying to compete for one of the open spots in the rotation."    (MLB.com)


13 January, 2006

     Dominican playoffs - after such an impressive season, Erick Aybar 0-5, .400 ... Andy Marte BOS 0-3, .214 

     Troop movements ...  TB - signed Dan Miceli, designated Franklin Nunez for assignment ... BAL - signed Kevin Millar and  Franklyn Gracesqui,  designated Brian Burres for assignment ...  CLE - designated Brian Tallet for assignment ... CIN - signed Grant Balfour, designated Josh Hancock for assignment ... 

     It gets more and more interesting as Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts edges toward the end of his Top 75.  In the 11-25 segment, 

" ...  15. Alex Gordon ...  drafted second overall by the Royals, signing just in time to make the Arizona Fall League. Scouts were blown away by Gordon's bat in the short time that he was in the league, despite a good number of struggles. The organization has decided to keep him at third for now, but a later positional switch to the outfield or first base is not out of the question ...  On draft day, my partner Rich Lederer compared Gordon's bat to Hank Blalock. In fact, it's likely that Lederer is even selling Gordon short with the comparison, as he profiles to have even better powe ...  The only two worries surrounding Gordon are contact and defense. The latter should take care of itself, but the real question is whether Gordon can be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Given his power and patience, there could be far worse things to have question marks about."

" ... 21. Joel Guzman  ... one of the few minor leaguers who could move from the middle infield to a corner outfield spot, and still be above-average offensively. The former big bonus baby has showed massive power in the last two seasons, hitting a combined 116 extra-base hits in just 953 at-bats. This is a fantastic ratio, and as he builds more muscle, Joel should also see more of his long hits clear the fence ...  contact skills took a giant step back ... However, Joel has also begun to walk more ...  If the DePo-less Dodgers continue to preach this philosophy, Guzman's power and patience should make up for substantial contact problems."

" ... 24. Jarrod Saltalamacchia  ...  For a catcher, Salty has fantastic power. His .205 Isolated Power in 2005 is just a taste of what he could provide at the Major League level, in which he should be good for nearly 30 home runs per year. However, while his power was better than his numbers suggested, his batting average is worse. There is little chance that Jarrod continues to hit much above .300 without striking out less, as his BABIP was .362 in 2005. Given pretty fantastic patience for someone his age, this won't be too bad of a problem, as he can still hit about .280/.360/.540 in the Majors. Not a great catcher, Jarrod shouldn't have to move from behind the plate, assuming his skills moderately progress in the coming years."

      A little love for Chris Nelson in the COL prospect report by Matt Jacovina, WarmOctoberNights :

" ... 1. Ian Stewart ...No surprises here. Stewart remains one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball, and should thrash AA and later AAA pitching next season. His defensive ability should be at least enough to stick at third base, with a shot at becoming a plus defender. Ian's a potential perennial all-star." 

" ... 3. Chris Nelson ... I may be overly optimistic in my assessment, but I think between the injury-based frustrations and natural growing pains, it's too early to think of him as a failing prospect. The tools are there for Nelson to be a star, and while Tulowitzki will likely peg down the shortstop position, a position switch to either 2B or CF would not only be possible, but benefit the organization."

" ... 9. Chris Iannetta ...  : After starting off fast after being drafted in 2004, Iannetta faced some doubters who wanted to see him do it again. Well, he did! Granted, it was just in A ball, but an .871 OPS from a catcher who has a good defensive reputation is always something to take note of. Expect him to continue honing his skills in AA this season, and then compete for a starting job with the Rockies in 2007."

     Pirates, with Neil Walker behind schedule, happy to see progress with Sean Burnett and John Van Benschoten :

" ...   No one felt better than Burnett and Van Benschoten, two of the Pirates' top pitching prospects, each of whom has made a long climb back from multiple arm surgeries ...  Burnett made 26 pitches -- all fastballs -- to catcher Ryan Doumit, and most appeared to be on target ...  "I thought I was throwing well and throwing for strikes." Burnett, a left-hander, had reconstructive elbow surgery that cut short a promising rookie season, then minor shoulder surgery last year. The Pirates originally forecast he could return in June, but they are encouraged by his recent progress and have left open the possibility he could make the rotation out of spring training ...  Van Benschoten, a right-hander, had surgery on both shoulders ... each to repair labrum tears. He said his left shoulder still bothers him, but neither he nor the team sees that as an impediment to pitching. He delivered only 15 pitches in an abbreviated session and estimated he achieved "75 percent velocity," but his control was no less accurate than Burnett's."   (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

     Thomas Diamond with the Rangers in 2005?  A long shot but ... 

" ... Still only 22, Diamond recently purchased a home in nearby Plano, Texas, and spent the offseason working out with weights and improving his conditioning in order to help him feel "like a grown-up." ... He started the 2005 campaign in Class A Bakersfield, going 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 81 innings during 14 starts. Promoted to Double-A Frisco in June, Diamond went 5-4 with a 5.35 ERA in 69 innings ... "I thought it went pretty good, although I struggled at the end of Double-A," he said ... "Last year, it was kind of like, 'Wow, I've watched these guys on television and now I'm at camp with them,' " he said. "I see it different now. These guys are just like me and trying to do a job." Diamond's job could be at Triple-A Oklahoma or it could be with the Rangers in Arlington. Nobody knows for sure. "He's done everything we have asked for and we will let him develop at his own pace," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "For me, that's a secondary benefit of all the starters we brought in this offseason. It's going to let Thomas and some of our other young guys develop, and we are not going to have to rush them." (MLB.com)


12 January, 2006

     Dominican playoffs - Eric Aybar LAA 2-4, 3 runs, .436.  Venezuelan playoffs - Armando Galarraga TEX 3-2/3 4 3 3 2 2

     Troop movements ... BOS - signed Julian Tavarez ... TB - signed reliever Shinji Mori ... PHI - Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, Jason Jaramillo among the ST invitees ...

     It's the second installment of Bryan Smith's Top 75 at Baseball Analysts (26-50) - a pair of SPs and a couple of backstops included :

" ... 48. Hayden Penn ...  Looking at his year in retrospect makes me dizzy. In the beginning of the season, he was the Eastern League's best pitcher, and started to fly up prospect lists like no other prospect. However, immediately following that, Penn developed dead arm, and was nearly simultaneously promoted to the Majors. This resulted in eight very poor starts, when Penn was sent back to Bowie. He continued to pitch badly, likely due to the dead arm, until the month of August. For the rest of the season, he was back as one of the minors best pitchers ...  Leo Mazzone will be thrilled to see that Penn has such good command of his pitches this year. His best pitch is a low 90s fastball with good life that Penn can throw in any spot ... To really succeed in the Majors, however, Penn must show a better breaking pitch than what he had in the Majors."

" ... 43. Jeff Clement  ... There is no question that Clement's defense behind the plate is lacking, but he also improved each year while at USC ...  His power, from the left side I should add, is fantastic. Jeff dominated the Midwest League after signing, hitting six home runs in less than 120 at-bats. Inland Empire citizens are surely waiting at the edges of their seats to see what he does in the Cal League. His problem defensively is not his throwing arm, which is fine, but instead his movement behind the plate ...  My other Clement concern is that of contact, as he strikes out about 20-25% of the time ...  his batting eye is above-average, but not to a great degree. If Clement makes it to the Majors, it will be on power, period."

" ... 37. Russ Martin ...  Dodgers had fallen in love with the catcher, both for the way he handled their pitchers ...  has the best plate discipline in the minor leagues. Sure, Jeremy Hermida might draw more walks and Howie Kendrick might make more consistent contact, but no one puts it together like Martin ...  between being on the bases a lot and playing great defense, it's no surprise that the Dodgers are excited to make Martin their full-time catcher soon. Players like him often don't produce a lot of volatility, so expect pretty consistent production."

" ... 27. John Danks ... seems as if I'm in the minority of believers that John Danks will be the best of the Rangers trio of pitching prospects. However, I think Danks will succeed even though the Rangers have not helped the situation. The team has promoted Danks early in both of his full seasons, leading to significant struggles at the next level ...  At his best, John's fastball (in the low 90s, with room to improve) is a weapon that he also controls. If harnessed, he shouldn't be giving up more than about 2.50 walks per nine innings. However, it seems that in high pressure situations (promotions, the Futures Game) he loses control, which could simply be learned with more experience. Danks also has the makings of two more good pitches, including a fantastic curveball and a solid change up. He shows maturity by having confidence in both pitches, and as he adds pitchability, I think he will strike out even more hitters. With a little guidance, the Rangers will be able to turn Danks into a #2 starter. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he's in the right organization."

     Kevin Melillo, Hunter Pence, Eric Patterson among the picks in the latest installment (81 to 90) of Dayn Perry's Top 100 at FoxSports :

" ...  81. Kevin Melillo ...   In two minor league seasons, Melillo has a career SLG of .539 ...  also controls the strike zone well and shows some speed on the bases. His bat most certainly profiles as an asset at the highest level, but the question is whether his glove will allow him to remain at second. If he does stick at the keystone, he has All-Star potential, but even if he's forced to third base Melillo will be a quality major leaguer."

" ... 84. Hunter Pence ...  one of the niftiest under-the-radar position prospects around. Pence's tools don't wow scouts, but last season he utterly dismantled the Sally League (.338 AVG/.413 OBP/.652 SLG). Granted the Sally League is lowest of full-season circuits and shouldn't pose grave problems to a college-trained hitter ...  but those numbers comfortably exceed even those standards. He hit 31 homers across two levels last season, but some observers think his perfectly awkward swing won't translate to the higher levels. That remains to be seen. Right now, however, Pence looks good going forward."

" ... 86. Eric Patterson ...  Here's one to watch ...  authored a batting line of .333 AVG/.405 OBP/.535 SLG in the Midwest League, and in the process he claimed the league's batting title and won the organization's Minor League Player of the Year honors. Patterson also runs the bases well and figures to stick at second for good. Obviously, he has good power for a middle infielder."

     Baseball America highlights the TB farm with few surprises on the Top 10 - Delmon Young, Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel 1-2-3.

     Pirates' Neil Walker likely to miss a significant portion of Spring Training :

" ... The 20-year-old switch-hitting catcher is working out daily at the Pirate City training facility as he recovers from Nov. 28 surgery that repaired a torn ligament on the outside of his left wrist. "It's a disappointment to have surgery but I'm trying to look on the bright side of things," Walker said ...  While the long-term outlook for Walker is fine, the near-term picture isn't as rosy as it could be. The Pirates originally hoped Walker would be healed in time for the start of spring training next month ...  Walker has been told that once the cast is off that he will likely need six weeks before he is cleared for full baseball activity, leaving early March as the target date."  (Beaver County Times)

     Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, on Clint Everts, Hanley Ramirez :

Clint Everts, WAS  " ... Everts did make it back last year, for a total of 35 innings in the Gulf Coast League and New York-Penn League. He is healthy, though he has lost a couple of ticks on his fastball, at least for now. The Nationals are hoping the velocity will return and that he can jump up to Double-A ...  I would say 2007 is when you're likely to see him, if all goes well, in Washington."

Hanley Ramirez, FLO  " ... His numbers in Winter Ball have been so-so. He is capable of being one of the better all-around shortstops in baseball. He can hit for average, he can run, he's got some pop ... certainly can make the play with the glove. But it's all in his hands ... He's still very young, so he could still mature. Maybe being handed a big league job, one of two things will happen: 1. He'll get serious about it because that's what he wants or 2. He'll think he's got it made. We'll have to wait and see what happens with him this year in Florida."

     With some hesitation, it's Cole Hamels atop David Regan's PHI Top 20 at RotoAmerica :

" ... Quite a year for Mr. Hamels. Hamels as you recall, dropped to the Phillies in the 2002 draft due to concerns over a broken left arm suffered as a sophomore in High School. Three years later, he’s made just 28 total appearances for the various Phillies minor league affiliates ...  pulled muscle – right shoulder, pulled muscle – right triceps (causing him to miss most of 2004), broken left hand (bar fight – nice Cole), and stress fracture in his back. Ugh. Despite that, he still has the most upside of anyone in the system. He’s got three above average pitches: low 90s fastball, plus curve, and a great change. Commands all three well when he’s on his game. Poised and confident beyond his years. The Phillies still love his stuff and envision him at the top of their rotation someday. Of recent concern, Hamels saw a doctor earlier this month and was diagnosed with inflammation in his back (different area from the stress fracture) and as a result, had a cortisone shot. Doesn’t sound good."

" ... #3 Gio Gonzalez ...  Probably doesn’t get the proper respect he deserves from scouts due to his smallish 5’11” frame and lack of a dominant fastball. Gonzalez also missed time this year with shoulder and back problems, so durability is a major concern going forward ...  Fastball sits in the 91-94 range and his curve ranks as one of the best in the minors. Further refinement is needed on his change, but he’s got a nice set of pitches and you certainly can’t argue with the K rate ... Should be tasting the bigs by September 2007. "

     Scott Rex, OnDeck, has been busy, updating the Arizona Top 40 and adding the lists for WAS and SF :

San Francisco         Washington        Arizona
Cain Matt	      Zimmerman Ryan    Drew Stephen
Sanders Marcus	      Balester Collin	Upton Justin
Martinez-Esteve Eddy  Everts Clint	Jackson Conor
Valdez Merkin	      Desmond Ian	Quentin Carlos
Griffin Daniel	      Hinckley Mike	Young Chris
Sanchez Jonathan      Bray Bill		Gonzales Carlos
Martis Shairon	      Rasner Darrell	Nippert Dustin
Ortmeier Dan	      Casto Kory	Montero Miguel
Schierholtz Nate      Diaz Frank	Carter Chris
Ishikawa Travis	      Thompson Daryl	Torra Matt

     William Calvin, InsideTheDugout, tabs Felix Pie as the top young Cubbie in the sites latest prospect report (perhaps written before the Cubs acquisitions of Jacques Jones, Juan Pierre).

" ...  With the recent departure of Corey Patterson, it almost seems inevitable that Pie will be tossed into the Cubs starting lineup in 2006. With blazing speed, pretty good plate discipline and the ability to hit at a .280-.290 average, expect Pie to be the Cubs leadoff man this coming spring. In 2005 Pie was able to show off some of his raw power with 11 dingers, and we fully expect him to reach 20 homeruns in 2006 maybe even 2007.

" ... 3- Angel Guzman ...   still trying to overcome a slight labrum tear in his pitching shoulder suffered back in 2003. The Cubs were very cautious with Angel, shutting him down in July 2004 so that he may rehab his tiresome forearm. The Cubs brought him back n 2005 only to have him shut it down again after only 19 innings of pitching. Some still question his durability, but the Cubs are confident that he will regain his 91-96 mph fastball before the 2006 season kicks off this spring."

     Dan Szymborski, BaseballThinkFactory, wraps up his team-by-team projections with a look at the Nationals.  Ryan Zimmerman gets a projection of  .309 .343 .481, 7 homers in 291 ABs.  The compilation is to be available later this week.

     Dallas McPherson takes a hit in the latest moves by the Angels :

" ... Darin Erstad was recently told by Manager Mike Scioscia that he would be moving from first base back to center field, a switch that will open first base for prospect Casey Kotchman ...  Erstad's return to the outfield probably will push Chone Figgins ... to third base and reduce McPherson, who is recovering from hip surgery, to a reserve third base and part-time designated hitter role ...  Though McPherson should be ready for spring training — he is throwing, taking ground balls and running at three-quarters speed — that didn't prevent the Angels from acquiring backup third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo in December. "That's only natural," McPherson said Tuesday, when asked if he felt the Angels had lost some confidence in him. "They want to make sure their bases are covered. All I can do is control the things I can control, and right now, that's getting healthy."  (LA Times)

     Tim Polko, RotoHelp, lists a pair of youngsters in his second installment of AL second basemen :

" ... Aaron Hill ...  Problems with right-handed pitching caused Hill to struggle while playing every day, but hopefully his new, unquestioned starting job as Orlando Hudson's replacement at second will provide the platform he needs to work through those difficulties. However, while his plate discipline virtually insures a helpful BA, he possesses no more than minimal speed and little short-term power potential. Viewing him as anything more than a significant gamble prior to 2007 looks like a mistake."

" ... Jose Lopez ...  move to second base finally insures Lopez a starting job, a welcome development for someone virtually ready for the majors a year ago ...   even if he experiences more growing pains due to his limited patience, he still should develop into a star. If you can weather the initial BA drag, acquiring Lopez anywhere around $5 will net you a nice long-term starter for your team. Think Jorge Cantu with better defense."


         The book is at the printers!  It is scheduled to be shipped in early February.  This will be the 11th annual prospect book for John.  It's one of the season's most anxiously awaited baseball publications.  It ships in early February with pre-orders now being taken.  Order here.


11 January, 2006

     Dominican playoffs - Erick Aybar LAA 1-3, walk, .431 ... Victor Diaz NYN 2-4, homer, 2 RBI, .383   Venezuela playoffs - Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4, triple ... Tony Armas WAS 5 4 3 3 0 1 ... Ronny Cedeno CHN 4-7, triple, 3 RBI, .375

     Troop movements ... CLE - Eduardo Perez signing announced ... TB - signed Ty Wigginton ... SD - announced the signing of Shawn Estes ...

     Ah, it's beginning to feel like Spring as Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts, kicks off his annual Top 75 prospect list !  We've come to expect solid, analytical pieces from Bryan and this is no exception.  He begins with numbers 51-75.  Among the choices :

" ... 69. Jason Hirsh ...  Besides Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano, no pitcher broke out in 2005 more than Jason Hirsh ...  proceeded to have a season in which he was named as the Texas League Pitcher of the Year, and was promptly added to the Houston 40-man roster. The key for Hirsh seemed to be a decline in his walk rate, as the big right-hander shaved his BB/9 almost in half ... Coming out of college, Hirsh was a pitching coach's dream. He had the pitcher's body at 6-8, 250, and was blessed with velocity in the mid-90s. However, there was little control and little secondary stuff. A year later, neither of that is true. Hirsh's curve was raved about in 2005, and as I said, his control was much improved this year ... If the Astros continue to implement young players onto their roster, look for Hirsh to get his chance in 2007."

" ... 66. Carlos Gonzales  ...   in 2005, Gonzales took off like few other prospects in minor league baseball. He was the most impressive player in the Midwest League ...  Gonzales tends to have every skill in the book, just not every one is fully developed. His contact abilities improved greatly in 2005, as his career average jumped 40 points and his K% was down to under 17%. He showed Major League power, hitting 52 XBH, including 18 home runs as a teenager. Carlos began to walk more, drawing 48 free passes and bringing his OBP north of .370. And while he doesn't have extraordinary speed, Gonzales is seen as a good center fielder. I'll remain skeptical about Gonzales for another year, but if all of this is for real, he could jump about 40 spots in 365 days."

" ... 63. Jeff Niemann ...  The San Diego Padres have to be more upset with the Rice University baseball program than anyone else. After Jeff Niemann's sophomore season, it was no contest that Niemann was the best player in the draft. Had the draft been a year early, the team would have been forced to take Niemann. There would have been an uproar if ownership ordered for anything else. The 6-9 rightie had led Rice through the College World Series ranks and capped off a 17-0 season with a 1.70 ERA. He was frightening. But soon, he would be hurt, and it still seems as the injury that followed his sophomore season is still causing problems today ...    It's just too hard to give up on a guy that used to touch 99. It's hard to quit on a guy that once had a power curve that would have reinvented the word. Alright, I'm exaggerating, but really, it's a pity this kid's stuff isn't what it used to be. Even with regression, Niemann still has an impressive two-pitch combination, but really needs to be healthy to completely prove that to us ...  Devil Rays took a risk drafting Niemann in the top five, but if any arm has the chance to pay them dividends, it's Niemann's."

" ... 60. Scott Elbert  ...   Of all my choices, this is the one I think I might end up pinching myself for most in one season. Not in a good way. Why? Because the Dodgers do this every year ...  They bring some hard-throwing southpaw with big numbers to the table, and we become amazed. However, there isn't a great track record for these players. Sooner or later, I think, that trend will break, and one of these pitchers will maximize his potential ... .  If pitchers only needed two pitches, this guy would be great. His low-90s fastball has good life, and his slider is at times devastating. However, to be a starter, a prospect needs a third pitch, which Elbert lacks. There have been few advancements in that category in a year, and without it, Elbert has a future in the bullpen ... But the reason you see Elbert so high on the list is that I think that even a good career in relief would be a disappointment."

     Justin Upton, a shortstop ... for at least another season.

" ...   By the time Upton, 18, is ready for major league duty - it could be fewer than two full seasons - Arizona figures to already have another top-flight prospect manning short in Stephen Drew, a first-round pick in 2004. Picking one over the other to play short could be difficult.  But upon formally announcing the signing of Upton to a five-year deal worth a record $6.1 million ...  Byrnes [ARZ General Manager Josh Byrnes] vowed that Drew and Upton will get chances to develop strictly as shortstops until such time as a new decision needs to be made. "We'll cross that bridge when we come to it," Byrnes said ...   "I've played shortstop all my life and that's the position I want to play," Upton said, adding that he's ready for the scrutiny that is sure to follow as the No. 1 overall pick. "If there's any questions, I'll have to change those speculations. I'll go to camp and work as hard as I can at my position and if a change comes, then a change does come." (Arizona Republic)

     Mets get some encouraging words from sick bay :

" ...  Philip Humber, the Mets' 2004 first-round pick who is coming off Tommy John surgery last July, said he's been throwing off flat ground for a month and does not feel any discomfort. Said Humber, "I feel relief, more than anything, that the surgery has worked."  (Newsday)

     Chris Snelling, on the comeback trail, again :

" ... Word from the Mariners is that Snelling is in Arizona rehabbing from the torn anterior cruciate ligament and subsequent reconstructive surgery in his left knee that ended his 2005 season prematurely ...  with the normal recovery rate from this injury, it's possible that if everything goes as planned with Snelling's rehab, we could see him on the field sometime in 2006, but probably not until at least the All-Star break. As for the team's plans with Snelling, it's hard to gauge because the Mariners still haven't gotten the chance to see him for even half a season ...  the Mariners are big fans of his plate discipline and his ability to hit to situations. Snelling hit .370 for Triple-A Tacoma in 2005 with ... 17 doubles, two triples, eight home runs ...  in 65 games."  (MLB.com)


10 January, 2006

     Dominican playoffs ... Andy Marte BOS 1-4, double ... Venezuela - Alberto Callaspo LAA 1-4 :

" ... Catcher Miguel Montero continued his impressive winter by hitting .284 with 10 doubles, six homers and 22 RBIs for Occidente in the Venezuela Winter League. The 22-year-old began the offseason by hitting .421 with two homers and nine RBIs in six games in the Arizona Fall League. Montero is expected to start off the 2006 season with Double-A Tennessee, and he could be in the big leagues as soon as 2007." (MLB.com)

" ... Yusmeiro Petit: A promising starter, Petit will get a shot at cracking the Marlins' rotation in Spring Training. The right-hander is excelling for Magallanes in Venezuela. In nine games, Petit is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA. He's thrown 49 1/3 innings, striking out 43 while walking just eight. "What we hear about Petit is he throws strikes and makes them put the ball in play," Fleming said. "In close to 50 innings, he's walked eight. His fastball is deceptive and he's a really good pitcher." Petit's fastball doesn't dazzle, but he has a knack for getting outs and winning at whatever level he has pitched."

     Troop movements ... MIN - signed Darrell May to a minor league contract ... WAS - signed Michael Tucker ... NYN - signed 1st round pick Mike Pelfrey ... MIL - designated Russell Branyan for assignment ... BAL - acquired Corey Patterson from CHN for Nate Spears and Carlos Perez ...

John Manuel, Baseball America, reports the Mets have signed first round pick Mike Pelfrey :

" ... One source with knowledge of the negotiations ...  indicated Pelfrey received a signing bonus of around $3.5 million  ...  with a contract guaranteeing Pelfrey $5.3 million...   Pelfrey, 6-foot-7, 215 pounds, was the ninth overall pick. BA ranked him as the top pitcher in the draft, and he fell to No. 9 overall mostly due to his perceived price tag ...  His signing will be in plenty of time for him to report to his first spring training. The Mets started their 2004 first-rounder, Philip Humber, at high Class A St. Lucie, also a likely destination for Pelfrey’s pro debut."

     Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts, kicks off his prospect week and Top 75 with an outstanding first installment,  reviews of 25 guys who just missed the cut.

" ... Ryan Braun - 3B/OF ...   On draft day, I talked about how there were only three other Miami hitters with bigger numbers: Pat Burrell, Jason Michaels and Aubrey Huff. The latter is the best comparison you can make for Braun. Neither plays defense well, and if not now, it's likely that Braun will move from third to right field at some point. However, with bad defense is also a fantastic bat with all the strengths. While neither his discipline or contact rates were great in his debut, expect them both to improve in Braun's full-season debut. He also has power that rivals anyone in the minors, and should one day create quite a tandem with Prince Fielder. However, unlike a few of the other college draftees, it's presumptuous to believe that Braun will fly through the minors."

" ... Eric Campbell - 3B ...   the short-season performance of the year goes to...Eric Campbell ...  with Marte's exit, this guy is the top 3B in the system ...  biggest calling card is big-time power. In 2005, over half of his hits and 17.6% of Eric's at-bats went for extra bases. Both of those are pretty dazzling percentages. Besides power, Campbell is a pretty average player. His contact skills aren't great -- his strikeout rate is about 25% -- and as a result, he should be a 100 K-per-year player. Eric walked in just under 10% of his plate appearances, and with maturity, discipline could even become a strength."

" ...  Christian Garcia - SP  ...  another one of my breakout prospects. Some of you may be surprised that I rank Garcia third in the Yankee system ...   Certainly there are maturity obstacles to overcome before a player can breakout, but I see it happening with Garcia ... pitchers with high strikeout and groundball rates succeed. Line drives and flyballs simply fall in for hits too much, so I often tend to favor power-sink pitchers. Garcia is just that. His velocity has been throughout the 90s in the minors, but should settle in the 94-96 region before too long. I've also heard fantastic reports about his curveball, which rivals Clippard's for the system's best."

" ...  Andrew McCutchen - OF  ...  considered the best athlete to come from Florida since Lastings Milledge. The combination of his speed and ceiling were unmatched in this draft, leading the Bucs to dream of him covering one of the biggest left fields in the Majors ...  McCutchen's primary tool is his speed. This will help him become an outfielder capable of great CF defense (or LF), while also stealing a lot of bases. In his short time after signing with Pittsburgh, Andrew went 17/19 on the bases ...  McCutchen's speed and his discipline are refined tools. At the plate, he managed to draw 37 walks (against 30 strikeouts!) in 210 at-bats. Not only does McCutchen make great contact, but his discipline also provides a future batting leadoff. His power will never be a great skill, but should develop enough for him to hit 10-15 homers and more than 30 doubles per year. Given his leadoff skills and outfield defense, this should be more than enough."

     Baseball Amercia ranks the top Yankee youngsters and there's a new face atop the chart - Philip Hughes, Eric Duncan, Jose Tabata, 1-2-3 :

" ... While Duncan remains a good prospect, he was passed by 2004 first-round pick Philip Hughes, who symbolizes the state of the system. In the last two years, New York has added high-end prospects at the lower levels with international signings and a more aggressive approach in the draft. The organization has potential impact bats such as outfielders Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson and infielders C.J. Henry and Eduardo Nunez, as well as intriging arms in Hughes, Christian Garcia and Jeff Marquez.

     Scott Rex, OnDeck, picks the best of the Cubbies farm and likes Felix Pie, Mark Pawelek and Angel Guzman 1-2-2.  Rich Hill and Ryan Harvey ranked 4-5.

     Dan Szymborski, BaseballThinkFactory, has his projections for the Blue Jays.  Guillermo Quiroz has a predicted line of .236 .311 .438, 12 homers in 258 ABs ... Dustin McGowan 2-4, 5.55 in 94 innings.


09 January, 2006

    Dominican playoffs -  WilyMoPena CIN 2-4 ... Erick Aybar LAA 2-4 ... Rafael Soriano SEA 2 2 0 0 0 0 ... Edison Volquez TEX 4-1/3 6 4 3 0 4

Venezuelan playoffs - Fernando Nieve HOU 5 3 2 1 1 4 1 ... Armando Galarraga TEX 5-1/3 3 3 3 3 2 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-4, double, homer

    Troop movements ... CIN - re-signed Rich Aurilia ...

    Bryan Smith, Baseball Analysts, includes a TOR hitter and CIN pitcher among his picks as 2006 breakout candidates. It's the rollup to his Top 75 list which comes this week.

" ... Adam Lind  ...  No glove, all bat guy that was one of the minors more prolific doubles hitters. However, for about one month, he showed that there is plenty of potential for home runs."

" ... Homer Bailey ...  2004 top ten pick, Bailey struggled with command in the Midwest League. His two-pitch combination should allow him to take off once he becomes more refined."

    OF Jerry Owens CHA adds a solid winter ball season to his campaign to win a spot with the WSox :

" ... By Owens' admission, he's an improved player simply because of his two months in Venezuela. After tearing up the Southern League in 2005 at a league-leading .331 clip for Double-A Birmingham, with 173 hits and 38 stolen bases, Owens hit .356 with a team-high 11 stolen bases for La Guaira. He worked extensively on the small game -- bunting, stealing bases and scoring runs -- that has made him so valuable ... If Owens doesn't look as if he will make the team, he will be sent to Minor League camp to prepare for his first season with Charlotte. But Owens places his goal at nothing short of starting for the White Sox in 2006. "I don't like lack of experience being used as an excuse for me, because I've come a long way over the last few years," Owens said. "I'm honored to be talked about in the outfield plans for the team that just won the World Series." (MLB.com)

    It took until the third installment on NL shortstops for Tim Polko, RotoHelp, to note some kids who might get some playing time in 2006 :

" ... Ronny Cedeno ... Age: 22 ... rocked PCL pitching this summer, unexpectedly compiling a .351/.399/.514 performance for AAA Iowa with 8 HR, 36 RBI, an 11/14 SB%, and a 20:31 BB:K. He somehow maintained that production in the majors, even demonstrating decent patience ...   In spite of a missed opportunity to secure a starting job due to a September broken hand, Cedeno still should open the year as a starting middle infielder, most likely as Chicago's shortstop but potentially at second base or somewhere like Baltimore."

" ...  Omar Quintanillla, 24 ...  continued producing for Colorado Springs before an opening with the Rockies forced him to the majors ahead of schedule. He contributed little in any aspect of the game, displaying far worse defense than Clint Barmes while scarcely breaking a .500 OPS. The good news is that Quintanilla still qualifies as a rookie, demonstrated decent plate discipline, and still could emerge as the long-term solution at second base. Luis A. Gonzalez is not a serious option beyond 2006, so while Quintanilla needs to weather the approach of Jeff Baker, Ian Stewart, Troy Tulowitzki, and Chris Nelson, all of whom could push Barmes or Garrett Atkins to the right side of the infield, he remains an intriguing prospect with plenty of upside."

    In MIL, still some thoughts about Billy Hall or Rickie Weeks moving to CF. 

" ... Melvin knew it would be something of a gamble to go with a young infield of Hall (26), shortstop J.J. Hardy (23), second baseman Rickie Weeks (23) and rookie first baseman Prince Fielder (21). With the addition of Koskie, who also can play first base, Hall is available again to fill in for Hardy or Weeks. Should the Brewers decide not to commit to Brady Clark for the long term, there have been internal discussions about moving either Hall or Weeks to center field at some point. "We don't want to give up yet (on Weeks at second)," Melvin said. "If Rickie can play second, you have a much more productive player than you usually have there. And we think we can get Billy at-bats. Not everybody is going to play all 162 games."  (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)

    One-time top PIT prospect Sean Burnett ready to resume mound duties :

" ... The highlight of the Pirates' minicamp that opens Tuesday in Bradenton, Fla., will come when starter Sean Burnett throws off a mound Wednesday or Thursday. It will be his first such attempt since two arm surgeries caused him to miss all of last season. He said he has been long-tossing without pain for six weeks and that his goal is to immediately rejoin the rotation. "I'm going to fight for that job," Burnett said. "I feel great." The Pirates are not ruling out he could pull it off, but Littlefield has projected a return of early June as most likely."  (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

    A couple of rookies with a shot for rotation spots in HOU :

" ...   the Astros will have to find two more starters behind a still formidable trio of Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Brandon Backe. Right now they are looking at Wandy Rodriguez (10-10, 5.53 ERA) and Ezequiel Astacio (3-6, 5.67), but the Astros also have high hopes for right-hander Fernando Nieve, who was 8-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 27 minor league starts last season, and right-hander Taylor Buchholz. Buchholz was acquired in the Billy Wagner trade with the Philadelphia Phillies but has been trying to overcome his own shoulder issues. He was 6-0 with a 4.81 ERA for Triple A Round Rock and then had a 1.57 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. Rodriguez and Astacio will likely get first shot while Nieve works out of the bullpen and Buchholz starts at Triple A. But both could be in the rotation before season's end, unless Clemens decides to come back."  (Star-Telegram, Fort Worth)

    Dan Szymborski, BaseballThinkFactory, has the TEX projections online.  A modest rookie campaign is predicted for second baseball Ian Kinsler - 19 homers, but ..248 .310 .431.  Infielder Marshall McDougall has a forecast of 14 homers, .276 .352 .454.  Thomas Diamond carries a projection of 7-7, 4.67 in 135 innings, John Danks 8-9, 5.36 in 151 innings.


07-08 January, 2006

    Dominican playoffs ... Erick Aybar LAA 3-5, triple, 3 RBI ... Joaquin Benoit TEX 3 3 2 2 0 4.  Venezuela playoffs - Wilfredo Ledezma DET 5 1 0 0 3 4 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-5

    Troop movements ... MIL - acquired Corey Koskie from TOR for Brian Wolfe ... KC -  designated Kyle Snyder and Devon Lowery for assignment ... CHN - Bobby Brownlie, Brandon Sing among the NRIs ... LAA - Brandon Wood, Jered Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Michael Collins among the NRIs ... COL - signed Byung-Hyun Kim, acquired Josh Wilson from FLO ... PHI - claimed Josh Kroeger off waivers from ARZ ... BAL - claimed Brian Burres off waivers from SF ... NYA - Ben Davis among the NRIs ...  ARZ - signed top 2005 draft pick Justin Upton ...  BOS - signed JT Snow

" ... Two years after leaving the Gophers to sign with the Twins, Glen Perkins has a big league spring training invite. Perkins, 22, will likely get a brief taste of big league camp before heading back to the minors. A first-round pick in the 2004 draft (No. 22 overall), he advanced to Class AA New Britain last season."

" ... [Jered] Weaver heads to camp more than just a hopeful as he will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation primarily with Hector Carrasco, Kevin Gregg, Joe Saunders and Chris Bootcheck. The Angels' first pick of the 2004 draft, Weaver was a combined 7-4 with a 3.91 ERA in 15 starts last year over two Minor League stops. The right-hander also made a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. Wood led all Minor Leaguers by hitting 43 homers at Class A Rancho Cucamonga last season. He also shared the California League lead with 115 RBIs and was tops in the circuit with 50 doubles, 109 runs scored and a .667 slugging percentage. Selected first by the Angels in 2003, Wood hit 14 homers to set a new AFL mark this past fall." (MLB.com)

    ARZ gets its No. 1 draft pick. Justin Upton adds to an already deep D'backs farm system :

" ... The deal includes a $6.1 million signing bonus payable over five years, the largest-ever sum for a drafted player on a minor-league contract. ...  Arizona announced the agreement Friday and said Upton will be introduced at a news conference Monday. "This is a significant step for our organization and we look forward to seeing this talented young man in uniform," Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said."  (USA Today)

    Andy Marte moves from No. 1 in ATL to No. 1 in BOS as Baseball America unveils its top 10 for the Red Sox.  SPs Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon ranked 2-3, RP Craig Hansen was 4th ahead of 2B/SS Dustin Pedroia.

    Aaron Gleeman, RotoWorld, highlights SEA's Kenji Jojima and Jason Kubel MIN among the AL rooks to watch in 2006 :

" ...   Jojima is a rookie by MLB standards, but he is actually a 30-year-old veteran with 11 years of big-league experience over in Japan. One of the best catchers in Japanese baseball history ...  .299 career batting average and 211 homers in 1,117 games, including five straight 20-homer seasons and a monster .330-34-119 year in 2003. Of course, those big numbers deflate pretty quickly once you begin to adjust for American competition ..  he looks like a .275 hitter with 15-homer power. That’s still very valuable in a catcher, which is why he could end up being one of this season’s best fantasy sleepers."

" ... The Twins seemed prepared to hand Jason Kubel a starting job heading into 2005, but he suffered a massive knee injury while playing in the Arizona Fall League and ended up missing the entire season. There is still some uncertainty surrounding his status ... Assuming Kubel is close to healthy, he’s almost lock to play regularly for the offense-starved Twins. He was the team’s minor-league player of the year in 2004, hitting .347 with 24 homers and 17 steals between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors."

    Scott Rex, OnDeck, offers his picks as the best of the STL farm - Anthony Reyes, Mark McCormick, Colby Rasmus 1-2-3.

 
 

    
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