SS-Notes, Hitting
* 2024 -- We have implemented the 'ghost runner' rule this year that MLB has been using, meaning that in extra innings during the regular season, each team starts the inning with a runner on 2B. And because scoring just one run in the top of an extra inning can be less valuable then in the first 9 innings, due to the likelihood of the home team scoring at least one run given they have a man starting on second base, we do have special sac bunt rules now for extra innings. In extra innings during the regular season, visiting team batters only bunt if their earliest inning to bunt is 7 or earlier, meaning they won't bunt if their earliest inning to bunt is 8 or later, or is a dash. Home teams bunt as usual (the same rules are used as in regular innings), since if they are in a situation that does not call for a bunt (if the tying or go ahead run is not on base), the team will not try a sac bunt. I think that most folks probably won't want to adjust their bunting strategies much (or at all) due to this rule, though that of course is up to you. And in the Scoresheet playoffs, just as in MLB, there will be *no* ghost runners in extra innings.
* 2024 -- 1) Lineup Juggling: Our computer sometimes juggles your batting order when one of your bench players has to start a game for you. The reason we don't simply put the sub in the same spot as the starter is because often the sub is a far weaker hitter than your starter. For instance, you may have Carlos Correa batting third, but if Garrett Hampson is your backup SS you probably don't want him hitting third if he has to start a game. Before we do any lineup juggling we figure out who your starters are; the juggling procedures occur after your starters are determined. Here are the rules we follow when juggling lineups.
A) A starter never moves down in the order.
B) A starter batting leadoff, 2nd, or 3rd never moves at all.
C) A starter who is in your 3, 4, 5 or 6 slot never moves higher than the third slot.
D) Since we never move a 3 thru 6 hitter above the 3rd slot, your new leadoff and 2nd batter (if either is subbed for) comes from a sub or your 7th, 8th or 9th hitter. If your leadoff or second batter is out we first look for a batter who has a Y in his steal column to fill that spot. If more than one batter has a Y we put the batters with the better PH rank (the lower the number the better - #1 is best) at the top of the order. Also, a catcher will not be moved to the leadoff spot.
E) In the 3 thru 8 (or 9) spots, we put the guy with the best pinch hit number highest in the batting order. (We never move a starter down in the order. But when a sub comes in the decision of whether to move other guys up, or to bat the sub higher than a starter, is based on PH rank.) Lineup juggling is another reason that ranking your hitters in the PH column is important, as we do put the hitters with the better rank higher up in the order.
* 2024 -- If you have a player who is qualified at a position, and you are playing him there, but he is a DH in the majors, then we give him the average number of errors for that position. We do that because we feel it would not be fair at all to the other teams in your league if you could play Eloy Jimenez in the OF all year and have him make zero errors for you just because he is playing DH for the White Sox. In fact, anytime you play a guy in Scoresheet at a different position than he is playing in the majors (and he qualifies at that position) then we base his errors on the number he is making compared to the average number made at that position.
* 2024 -- RANK OR PH FOR COLUMN: This column always seems to cause a lot of confusion. Very Simply: If you put a dash in a player's rank or PH for column he gets pinch hit for, if you put a number in his rank or PH for column then he does NOT get pinch hit for, versus that type of pitcher. This does apply to hitters listed in both the starter and in the bench sections - if you don't put a number in the PH or rank column for a starter, then he will get pinch hit for if there is an available player on the bench who has a number in that column. Probably the easiest way to think of how to number your players for that column is to think of the starters and bench players as all being listed in the same section, and then number them accordingly. Simply give the best hitter on your team versus that type of pitcher (RHP or LHP) a 1, the second best a 2, and so on. The weaker players that you would want to pinch hit for if you are behind late in a game should get a dash.
We do look at the pitcher at that time to decide which column to use (vs. LHP or vs. RHP). For instance, you can have a dash for a player vs. LHPs and a number for that same player vs. RHPs, and then if that hitter faces a LHP late in the game he'd be pinch hit for (since he has a dash versus LHPs), and if he faces a RHP he'd hit for himself (since he has a number versus RHPs.) Pinch hit numbers are also used to juggle your lineup when subs have to start a game.
* 2024 -- Farm System: Players on your roster who are not listed on your lineup card are automatically included on your farm system. These farm system players will come in to play for you if needed, before we go to AAA players. Before using a farm system player the computer does check to see if any of your 30 players on the lineup card qualify at the position needed - if they qualify there they will be used before the farm system player, even if you do not list that position for them on the card. But, farm system players will be used before we move guys 'out of position'. Also, bullpen pitchers will be moved into your starting rotation if needed (as long as they either had a start that week in the majors, or pitched at least 3 innings that week in the majors and are not on our short reliever list), before we start a pitcher on your farm system. NOTE: Just like any player, a guy on your farm system can only appear in a Scoresheet game if he has major league playing time that week. When players are brought up from the farm system they are called up in order of season to date playing time.
We always get some questions about how we juggle your batting order when bench players have to start. (We don't just put the sub in the same spot as the starter because too often the sub is a far weaker hitter than your starter. For instance, you may have Barry Larkin batting third, but if Rafael Belliard is your backup SS you certainly don't want him hitting third if he starts a game!)
Before we do any lineup juggling we figure out who your starters are; the juggling procedures occur after your starters are determined. Here are the rules we follow when juggling lineups.
A) A starter never moves down in the order.
B) A starter batting leadoff, 2nd, or 3rd never moves at all.
C) A starter who is in your 3, 4, 5 or 6 slot never moves higher than the third slot.
D) Since we never move a 3 thru 6 hitter above the 3rd slot, your new leadoff and 2nd batter (if either is subbed for) comes from either a sub or your 7th or 8th hitter (and/or 9th hitter in the AL.) If your leadoff or second batter is out we first look for a batter who has a Y in his steal column to fill that spot. If more than one batter has a Y we put the batters with the better PH rank (the lower the number the better - #1 is best) at the top of the order. Also, a catcher will not be moved to the leadoff spot.
E) In the 3 thru 8 (or 9) spots, we put the guy with the best pinch hit number highest in the batting order. (We never move a starter down in the order. But when a sub comes in the decision of whether to move other guys up, or to bat the sub higher than a starter, is based on PH rank.) Lineup juggling is another reason that ranking your hitters in the PH column is important, as we do put the hitters with the better rank higher up in the order.
F) If there is no one left with pinch hit numbers and the pitcher is up, Scoresheet will still pinch-hit -- with players (without numbers in the PH column) in the order that they are listed on the lineup card. Once those players have been used, the pinch-hitters will come from the taxi squad.
G) When looking for a sub for your DH (or for your 1B if you have no one on the bench with 1B listed as a position or who qualifies at 1B), we take players based on their PH rank. Unlike all of the other positions, if you need a sub DH to start we do NOT look for a guy on the bench you have listed at DH, instead we simply take the guy with the best PH rank.
Platoon Splits
This from Scoresheet's Jeff Barton in January, 2004
I've been analyzing individual batter differences between facing LHPs and RHPs,
i.e. platoon splits, and have come up with a couple of corrections to the
scoresheet-talk platoon.txt files for 2004. First of all, the league average
platoon splits for 2002 plus 2003 are:
BAvL SLvL OBvL BAvR SLvR OBvR
Average LHB -18 -41 -28 6 13 9
Average RHB 9 21 19 -3 -8 -7
Average BHB -1 -6 -6 0 2 2
These are the numbers that will be used for rookies in the 2004 summer season.
(Our old-timers game uses somewhat different numbers, given in the old-timers
newsletter.
Secondly, individual players often deviate from the above numbers, especially if
they don't have very many AB. For instance, here are Doug Mirabelli's numbers:
PA AB BAvg SlgA OBA
2001 LHP 60 53 .283 .717 .367
RHP 164 137 .204 .350 .319
2002 LHP 50 44 .364 .750 .440
RHP 123 107 .168 .271 .260
This certainly makes it look like Mirabelli's the best platoon player in the
history of baseball. Yet here are his 2003 numbers:
2003 LHP 57 52 .250 .288 .298
RHP 119 111 .261 .523 .311
He actually hit RHPs better than LHPs in 2003! I think Bill James first did a
study pointing out that this is typical, big platoon splits are more luck than
anything else, and tend to vary almost completely from year to year. While
platoon splits do matter some (for instance some switch hitters like Roberto
Alomar seem to consistently hit RHPs better than LHPs, presumably because they
get a lot more practice batting from the left side), there's definitely also a
lot of luck.
I have analyzed all this a lot more, both empirically and theoretically, to find
the best amount of league average platoon splits to include when predicting an
individual's future performance. I believe the answer is roughly 1500 plate
appearances, so this is what we'll now add to each players' splits from the last
two years. This still gives some 2004 results such as:
BAvL SLvL OBvL BAvR SLvR OBvR
Olivo,Mi 18 54 22 -7 -20 -8
Delgado,Ca -22 -88 -38 8 34 14
Giambi,Ja -26 -75 -38 9 26 13
Harvey,Ke 26 60 32 -10 -24 -13
Ortiz,Da -40 -83 -59 13 28 19
Colbrunn,Gr 20 52 26 -10 -26 -13
Catalanott,Fr -39 -70 -39 10 18 10
Chavez,Er -42 -83 -56 15 30 20
Blalock,Ha -46 -105 -56 14 33 17
Valentin,Jo -29 -88 -35 8 25 10
Gerut,Jo -33 -80 -43 11 27 14
Nixon,Tr -32 -88 -46 10 26 13
Monroe,Cr 19 67 26 -8 -28 -11
Thomas,Fr 9 40 24 -3 -14 -9
Martinez,Ed 11 49 36 -4 -18 -14
Ausmus,Br 17 51 35 -5 -16 -11
Thome,Ji -25 -80 -43 9 30 15
Karros,Er 29 49 46 -10 -18 -17
Franco,Ju 31 52 42 -12 -21 -17
Kent,Je 25 40 39 -8 -13 -13
Spivey,Ju 17 63 36 -7 -26 -16
Ramirez,Ar 13 58 18 -4 -20 -6
Nevin,Ph 24 77 33 -9 -28 -13
Abreu,Bo -16 -69 -32 6 25 11
Berkman,La -14 -69 -20 4 22 6
Grissom,Ma 22 78 33 -8 -31 -13
Stairs,Ma -27 -77 -42 6 18 10
Kinkade,Mi 30 66 35 -12 -27 -15
(We'll publish a complete file in mid-January when we produce the 2004 player
lists.) As you can see, there are still many players with large platoon splits,
but perhaps not quite as large as in the past. I think this makes the game much
more accurate. In fact, I believe this new method gives the most accurate
predicted platoon splits available, and would be very interested if anyone
thinks there are better ones elsewhere.
Cheers, and Play Ball!
- Dave Barton
Also, this exchange on SS-talk (March, 1999) on the net (on a little trick to save roster spots AND achieve a platoon): (Basically you put only one catcher -- Stinnett -- on your roster and hope the other -- Mayne -- comes in when you're up against a rhp.)
From: Bernard Luttbeg :
Suppose I have two catchers that are a righty and a lefty: Stinnett and Mayne. Even with the platoon I would rather have Stinnett starting against a righty. So, I don't want a strict platoon. However, is there any trick to increase my chances that when Mayne plays he plays against righties?
Douglas Dolbear wrote:
A year or two back, someone asked the same question and someone answered saying that if you start Stinnett every day and he runs short of playing time, the program will attempt to put Mayne in against the RHP. That gives you exactly the result you are looking for. i.e. play Stinnett as much as possible, but never have Mayne against LHP. I've never really tested the theory, but I recall it was from a reliable source.
From Jeff Barton at Scoresheet:
This is somewhat true, though does not work perfectly. When the computer benches a starter because he does not have enough at-bats to start every game, it 'tries' to bench that player against pitchers who pitch from the same side the batter hits from. But, 'trying' is a complicated thing, and as said above, it will not work perfectly every time. But over the long haul, doing what is described below will have your right handed batters sitting more against right handed pitchers than against left handed pitchers. - Jeff
Baserunning
1) RBI and RUNS used to determine how far runners advance, and SF chances.
2) Fast players (guys with a lot of major league steals, triples, and runs scored) do score in Scoresheet more often from second on a single, or from first on a double. (Major league runs scored are used in our game to determine how far a guy advances on a base hit, and if the batter has a lot of RBIs in the majors then your runner also will have a better chance of scoring.) However, in both Scoresheet and the majors, even the fastest guys do NOT always score from second on a single. There are infield singles, and sometimes the ball is just hit too hard for even a Kenny Lofton to score. And scoring from first on a double is definitely not a sure thing, though it does happen more often in Scoresheet when there are 2 outs. Over the course of a season your 'faster' players will take more extra bases - and overall we have players go from second to home and first to home at the same rate as in the majors.
GIDP Actual results modified by batting order. Also pitchers who have wins or saves are assisted to increase their chances of a DP.
Rank or PH For
This column always seems to cause a lot of confusion.
Very Simply: If you put a dash in a player's rank or PH for column he gets pinch hit for, if you put a number in his rank or PH for column then he does NOT get pinch hit for, versus that type of pitcher. This does apply to hitters listed in both the starter and in the bench sections - if you don't put a number in the PH or rank column for a starter, then he will get pinch hit for if there is an available player on the bench who has a number in that column. Probably the easiest way to think of how to number your players for that column is to think of the starters and bench players as all being listed in the same section, and then number them accordingly. Simply give the best hitter on your team versus that type of pitcher (RHP or LHP) a 1, the second best a 2, and so on. The weaker players that you would want to pinch hit for if you are behind late in a game should get a dash. We do look at the pitcher at that time to decide which column to use (vs. LHP or vs. RHP). For instance, you can have a dash for a player vs. LHP's and a number for that same player vs. RHP's, and then if that hitter faces a LHP late in the game he'd be pinch hit for (since he has a dash versus LHPs), and if he faces a RHP he'd hit for himself (since he has a number versus RHPs.) Pinch hit numbers are also used to juggle your lineup when subs have to start a game.