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01 February, 2002
Paul
White, in his BBW column, cited a few prospects "most likely to
parlay the combination of plate discipline and talent into success:"
The Yankees Nick Johnson topped the list. Some of the other
less-hyped guys :
Esteban German
OAK :
"
... might
have the offensive skills to be Oakland's second baseman this year ... He'd certainly
do a nice job filling a top-of-the-order slot with his speed. Defense remains
enough of a question for the A's to stick with veterans for now."
Michael Cuddyer
MIN :
"
... he has plenty of power, too. Defense was a problem at shortstop
and hasn't completely gone away at third ... probably ticketed for Triple-A for now."
Jesus Cota ARZ
:
"
... Singling out
guys in rookie ball is dangerous. Then again, hitting .368 with 71 RBI in 74
games as a teenager in your pro debut deserves notoriety. Especially when you
have a stat line with 52 strikeouts and 56 walks. This is a big lefty with all
sorts of power potential."
Adam Morrissey
OAK :
"
... Another
guy to get in line behind Oakland's incumbents and German ... an Australian who played second, short, third and each outfield
position last year and has batted in every slot but eighth.".
David
Srinivasan, TSN, with some high hopes for Morgan Ensberg HOU :
"
... Ensberg is super. He hit .310-23-61 in 316 at-bats at Class
AAA New Orleans-an incredibly tough ballpark. A .300-35-90 season in Houston is
attainable if Ensberg stays healthy and wins the starting job."
The BBW crew (Lisa Winston, Mat
Olkin and Paul White) take on the AL West prospects in the latest
edition. Lots of the "little-known" guys here, a few TEX
pitchers, for example :
Justin Duchscherer, RHP :
"
... Duchscherer (DUKE-sher) ... fastball is only in the upper 80s, but he offsets it with a curveball and
changeup and keeps hitters off balance ... .finished second in the system in ERA."
BBW choose RHP Colby Lewis as the
top pitcher in the TEX system :
"
...
boasts a power arm with an above- average curveball and the makings of an
above-average changeup. Lewis has a good feel for pitching and has moved quickly
through the ranks. He had Tommy John surgery out of high school and has not had
elbow trouble since ...
led the organization in strikeouts in 2001 and was fourth in the Texas League in
that category."
Outfielder Jamal Strong was
selected as the top hitter in the SEA system :
"
... Determining the pitching pecking order in this system is tough enough. But
separating Strong from fellow outfielder Chris Snelling is nearly as difficult.
Strong is growing into the prototypical leadoff hitter with exceptional speed
and a discerning eye at the plate. He plays an above-average center field. The
only missing element is power."
Fireballer Bobby Jenks ... top ANA
pitcher :
"
... the 2001 version
of Milwaukee prospect Nick Neugebauer. Like Neugebauer, Jenks has a blazing
fastball. He has been clocked more than a few times over 100 mph and regularly
between 94-97. Also like Neugebauer, he's not always sure where that fastball is
going. Jenks was sent to Arizona Fall League after allowing three or fewer
earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts at Cedar Rapids. He led the
prospect-laden league with 49 strikeouts in just 31 innings but also posted a
6.97 ERA in eight starts. He also has a great curveball and is working on a
changeup. With consistent control as he gets older he could be special."
03 February, 2002
Gerry Fraley, Dallas Morning News, reports
Hank Blalock may be a long shot but he's in the running for the 3B spot
this season :
" ... Blalock, the organization's minor
league player of the year last season, will be among 22 non-roster players with
the major league team for spring training. It is more than a courtesy
invitation. The Rangers plan on testing Blalock during exhibition play. Manager
Jerry Narron said Mike Lamb is the front-line third baseman, but that
could be subject to change. Blalock, 21, hit a combined .352 with 18 home runs
and 108 RBIs at Class A Charlotte and Double-A Tulsa last season. He followed
that with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League and was voted the league's
top prospect."
Rick Hummel, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, says
Rick Ankiel will be front and centre at the Cards' ST :
" ... Lefthander Rick Ankiel won't be
pitching by dawn's early light on the back fields of the Cardinals'
spring-training complex in Jupiter, Fla., this spring. Ankiel was shielded as
much as possible last spring as he and the Cardinals' staff addressed his
astonishing wildness. But Ankiel, presumably cured after a trip to the lowest
minors, wants to pitch out in the open this spring, and he is anxious to get
started. He and 22-game winner Matt Morris have been working out much of the
offseason in Jupiter, where both make their offseason home. The fifth starting
job is Ankiel's for the taking if he is all right, but the Cardinals are in the
position of not having to count on him. Veteran Andy Benes could regain the job
he had last season before he was buried in the last month."
Allan Simpson, Baseball America, on Casey
Kotchman ANA :
"
... He is extremely advanced for a high school draft pick with only about
40 at-bats of pro experience. I think he'll start this season at Cedar Rapids of
the Midwest League but may move to high A by the end of the year. I think
reaching the big leagues by 2004 is a little more realistic. I can see a solid
.300 hitter, 30-35 homers and a Gold Glove in his future."
04 February, 2002
Jim
Callis, Baseball America, on Antonio Perez SEA :
"
... definitely premature to bounce Perez off of prospect lists. He missed all
but five games with wrist problems last year, but he hit .276-16-63 with 28
steals in 98 games in 2000, leading the high Class A California League with a
.527 slugging percentage at age 18. That's what we have to judge him on right
now, and throw in his defensive skills, and he's pretty spectacular. Right now
the only shortstop prospects I rank ahead of him are Kansas City's Angel Berroa,
Montreal's Brandon Phillips and Atlanta's Wilson Betemit. If Perez had been
healthy last year, he probably would have stayed ahead of all of them."
David
Srinivasan, The Sporting News, goes
prospecting and, among other goodies, finds a Chuck Finley-like lefty, an under
appreciated young catcher and a SP ready to bounce back from injury.
Brandon
Claussen NYA ": ... has a nice-moving, low-90s fastball that
peaks at 94 mph, and his strikeout pitch is an excellent slider. His changeup is
a "weak link," but he still led the minors in strikeouts last season
... He'll probably make a Yankee Stadium cameo in midseason, and is in
line to get a full shot at the rotation in 2003. He looks like a young Chuck
Finley."
Ben
Petrick COL " ... Petrick's job is supposedly in jeopardy because
Tony Eusebio and Carlos Hernandez are on hand ... The Rockies cannot win with a
gloveman/mediocre bat at any position, so no matter what you hear, unless Ben
Petrick implodes in March-May, he will get 400-plus at-bats."
Jon
Rauch CHA " ... Rehab has progressed a bit slowly, and Rauch
is not expected to be 100 percent by spring training, but there have been no
major setbacks. The White Sox say he's on track to pitch a significant amount
this season, and they think he'll compete for a big-league job in August or
September. The guy's a monster, 6-10 or 6-11 (depending on whom you believe),
230 pounds, and has a mid-90s fastball, and two good breaking balls (slider and
curve). If healthy, this guy could become Randy Johnson's mirror image."
05 February, 2002
ProtospectWatch
has Brandon Phillips as the best of the MON young guns. He draws a
comparison (if reaching his potential) to Barry Larkin :
"
... a multi-dimensional player with good offensive production and above average
defense and speed ... Phillips is still very young, but he should see the majors
in 2003. There are some rumblings about Phillips shifting to third, but I can't
imagine a team (even the MLB-run Expos) letting Orlando Cabrera block the second
best shortstop prospect in baseball. Phillips has the potential to put up a
.290+ BA, .400+ OBP, .460+ SLG, 20 SB-year. He will be one of the better
shortstops in the NL."
PW's
Chris Reed has also posted his OAK review.
At #5 -- shortstop Bobby Crosby :
"
... hit very well in 38 at bats before his season was ended prematurely with a
hip flexor injury. He has good defensive skills and it's only a question of
whether he will hit enough to eventually replace Miguel Tejada at
shortstop."
06 February, 2002
Mark
Jerkatis, Top Prospect Alert, with
his annual look at the most underrated prospects. SEA outfielder Chris
Snelling tops the list :
"
... the only repeat from last season as Blalock, Dunn, Pujols, and Tankersley
are all getting their due from the experts in a big way. This is a 20yo who
could hit .300 with 25 doubles. 5 triples, and 5-10 HRs in the majors today,
while playing a fantastic CF. The Mariners will give him one more season in the
minors, but he will eventually be an ideal major league #2 hitter."
"
... Jose Reyes ... By the time next season is over, the “experts”
will be calling Omar Vizquel Jose Reyes-lite. Fantastic defensive SS who will
hit better than Vizquel ever did and 1996-1999 were some decent offensive
seasons."
"
... John Stephens ... He will never be a “stud” pitcher,
but he will be one of the games better mid-rotation starters and rack up a ton
of both Wins and innings."
Shortstop Jose Reyes NYN gets another
boost ... Gary Reed, predicting the Top 20 players in this season's
Florida State League, puts Reyes right at the top :
" ... it's hard not to get excited
about an 18-year-old switch-hitting middle infielder who hit 22 doubles and 15
triples in the Sally League last year. Reyes also plays a solid D, leading
all Sally League shortstops in fielding percentage (.964), and has a hose for an
arm. Weaknesses? Well, his OBP was subpar, but I feel that is a
by-product of the Mets' pushing him from Kingsport in 2000 to Columbia last
year."
Jason Michael Barker,
Strike Three, with his NL East "prospects to watch" in 2002 :
"
... Wilson Betemit ... the biggest impact player in
the system, combining batting average, power, speed and a good glove. With
Rafael Furcal at short Betemit could wind up at either third or second, though
Vinny Castilla stands in his way at third for the time being. He's probably
slated to begin the year at AAA, but he's also one injury away (Castilla, Furcal
or 2B Marcus Giles) from the majors."
"
... Marlon Byrd ... .might even get
a shot at a roster spot in spring training, depending on how quickly Bobby Abreu
recovers from this week's appendectomy. In any event, Byrd nearly went 30-30 at
AA last season, finishing with 28 homers and 32 steals (in 37 attempts), and hit
.316/.386/.555 for the year, very respectable numbers for a center fielder. He
is a very complete player as far as skills go, and should be just fine in center
when his time comes."
"
... Jae Weong Seo ... .missed the entire
2000 season after Tommy John surgery, but came back last year at pitched well at
three levels (high-A, AA and AAA). He has excellent control, having walked just
35 batters in 187.2 minor league innings, and already has good command of three
off-speed pitches."
:"
... Josh Beckett ... posted a
1.23 ERA at high-A, a 1.82 ERA at AA, and a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings at the major
league level last season, and his ratios were tremendous at every stop. If
there's a concern here it's that he pitched 164 innings last season, so
hopefully the Marlins will go easy on his arm this year if they learned anything
at all from what happened with Kerry Wood."
"
... Brad Wilkerson. I was close to listing SS Brandon Phillips in
this spot, but Wilkerson spent last year in the majors and AAA and is going to
win a job this spring, while Phillips split his time between high-A and AA and
will probably be back in the minors to start the season. Unlike the vast
majority of Expos prospects, Wilkerson has an understanding of the strikezone
... .Given regular playing time, he could become something of an Edgar Martinez-lite:
solid average, lots of walks and tons of doubles."
Austin
Kearns, of course, was the headliner as John Sickels reviewed the
CIN system on ESPN. Kearns has had about as much hype as anyone
this season, so on to some of the lesser-known Sickels' picks :
"
... Ty Howington ... 93-mph lefty with improving curveball and changeup.
Made serious improvements in his control last year, though there is further work
to do. One of the more promising southpaws in the game."
"
... Wily Mo Pena ... .264 with 26 homers, 113 RBI, 26 steals at
Dayton. Also fanned 177 times with just 33 walks. Outstanding athlete, but can
he control the strike zone at higher levels?"
07 February, 2002
The folks at Baseball Prospectus have
posted their Top 40 prospect list. Again, some very interesting
choices. I especially like a couple of gutsy picks -- John Stephens
as among the best SPs, Carlos Hernandez ahead of Ryan Anderson
as the best of the lefty SPs, and Josh Hamilton's dive to the last
spot on the list.
Hank
Blalock beat out Josh Beckett
and Sean Burroughs for the top spot.
Chris Reed, ProtospectWatch, has selected
his All-Prospect Team (the best at each position along with the Top 10 RHP and
Top 10 LHP.
"
... The hardest decision was at third base. Picking between Blalock and Burroughs
was incredibly tough, but I went with Blalock because his power has already come
around. Burroughs should start knocking homeruns very soon, but Blalock is just
a step ahead in development and that gave him the very, very slight edge."
Wilson
Betemit lost a spot on the
team given the likelihood of a move to third base :
"
... The shortstop situation is interesting because the best shortstop prospect
is probably Wilson Betemit. Unfortunately, Betemit is blocked at shortstop by Furcal
and all signs point to Betemit moving to third. While he is still a top prospect
at third base, he simply can't compete with Blalock. Jose Reyes
gets the nod at short thanks to a very promising performance and great
"tools" at a young age."
TPA
has posted Mark Jerkatis'
comprehensive review of the Top 300 prospects, a major and highly informative
work. There's quite a number of familiar names down near the bottom
of the list :
"
... 264) Shin-Soo Choo ... makes good contact,
has projectable power in the range of 25+ HRs, shows advanced plate discipline
and had 10 triples and 12 SBs in only 199 ABs. Defensively, he uses his
speed well and has an average arm. Choo should return to full season
A-ball in 2002"
" ... 271) Justin Wayne ... possesses four major league
quality pitches (90 mph fastball, above average change, average curve and
slider). His greatest asset is his mental toughness on the mound, knowing
how to pitch and keeping his emotions in check. On the downside, he
doesn’t have a true “strikeout” pitch and does not possess the pinpoint
control associated with successful “finesse” pitchers ... should see
Montreal before 2002 is out and look for him to hang on quite a while as a
bottom of the rotation starter."
"
... 274) Chase Utley ... The Phillies hoped they were drafting a
secondbasemen that would eventually put together a profile similar to Jeff Kent.
And while Utley has very good power for a middle infielder that may allow him to
hit 25+ HRs one day, his plate discipline (or lack thereof) will never allow him
to approach Kent-like numbers. He continues to have trouble with the
breaking stuff and won’t hit to the opposite field. His speed is only
average and average would be his defensive ceiling."
08 February, 2002
Baseball Weekly
is out with its annual
Fantasy Preview issue and there are lots of goodies.
Mat Olkin
has his Top 10 "Impact
Rookies" for 2002. Carlos Pena OAK is No. 1, followed by
Morgan Ensberg HOU, Josh Beckett FLO and Michael
Cuddyer MIN :
"
... There are four strong candidates for the Twins' right field job
between Cuddyer, Bobby Kielty, Mike Restovich and Dustan Mohr. Each is capable
of having a strong season if he wins the job, but Cuddyer is the strongest
candidate, both short- and long-term. If he plays from the start, he'll be a
strong contender for Rookie of the Year."
Kazuhisa
Ishii LA (if he signs) is
#5, with Hank Blalock TEX and Sean Burroughs SD neck
and neck. At the bottom end are Eric Hinske TOR, Juan
Cruz CHN and Marlon Byrd PHI :
The best of the catchers & first basemen are
the latest targets at ProtospectWatch. Chris Reed sees some real
difficulty if you're trying to select your catcher of the future :
"
... The catcher position is a mixed bag of solid, developed prospects who look
to become average/good Major League backstops and young, raw talents who have
the potential to be more than that. Joe Mauer is the main man behind the
plate, combining projectable power with great plate discipline. Josh Phelps
has a potent stick, but questions about his defensive prowess and his durability
behind the plate limit his upside. Houston's John Buck is a more
solid all-around catcher, but he doesn't have quite the offensive ceiling of
Phelps or Mauer. After Garett Gentry, the catchers' market thins
out considerably."
Reed picks
'em -- Mauer, Phelps, Buck, Werth,
Gentry, Christianson, House, Olivo, Tonis, Abruzzo.
09 February, 2002
Ryan Anderson
SEA, the best of the
lefties. That's the view from David Cameron, Strike Three, in his
review of the southpaws on the rise. Brandon Claussen NYA
grabbed the #2 rating :
"
... throws hard for a lefty, hitting 94 at times, and has a solid curveball and
a good changeup. He needs to work on hitting the corners and relying less on his
fastball, but he's a very smart kid and the Yankees are very high on him. Expect
to hear his name in trade rumors for most of the next eight months. New York
would be wise to hang onto this one."
Carlos
Hernandez HOU, Corwin
Marlone CHA and Mario Ramos TEX grabbed the 3,4, and 5
slots. Then it's Ty Howington CIN and Mark Phillips
SD :
"
... The ninth pick in the 2000 draft, Phillips was very raw and needed some
repetition. After some early injury struggles, he really came on strong and
ended the year in high-A Lake Elsinore ...has two plus pitches with his
fastball/curve combination, but he's going to have to develop a changeup or a
slider to get by. His command's not that good yet, and he could probably use two
full years in the minors. San Diego will be patient with him, and if he can stay
healthy, he could be a front-of-the-rotation starter."
John
Sickels, ESPN, had no problem finding
prospects in the SEA system. Beyond the much hyped types -- Anderson, Perez,
Snelling, Strong -- there's a long list of talented youngsters :
"
... Jeff Heaverlo ... Went 11-6 with 3.12 ERA and 173/40 K/BB in
179 Double-A innings. Works with decent fastball, solid slider and changeup.
Intelligent, and learned to throw inside last year."
"
... Rafael Soriano ... Fires 95 mph fastball and evil slider, and
made big strides with his control last year. Will need some Triple-A time but
could see Seattle in September."
"
... Ryan Christianson ... Outstanding defensive catcher, hit just
.249 at Class A San Bernadino, but whacked 42 doubles. 20 years old, could be an
excellent player if his bat develops further and useful even if it
doesn't."
"
... Clint Nageotte ... Works at 89-92 mph, throws strikes with his
slider and curve. Excellent 187/50 K/BB ratio at Class A Wisconsin marks him as
someone to watch closely."
"
... Matt Thornton ... 1998 first-rounder, looked like a bust but
re-emerged last year. Posted 2.52 ERA, 14-7 record, and 192 strikeouts in 157
innings at Class A San Bernadino. Thows 93 mph with improving secondary
offerings."
'
... Key Sleeper ... Craig Anderson ... Another Aussie, went 11-4
with 2.26 ERA and superb 178/39 K/BB ratio in the California League. Does not
throw hard, but Moyeresque in his approach."
10 February, 2002
Baseball
Weekly has the first instalment of its Top 100 to watch in 2002.
Picking out a few of the less familiar names on the 50 top hitters (the pitchers come next week)
-- TOR's Vernon Wells
:
"
... finally will get a
chance to play full time. Look for him in either left or center with Jose Cruz
Jr. in the other spot. A first-round pick in 1997, some said that Wells was
strictly a signability pick. His performance since then has pretty much put that
to rest. In three brief stints with Toronto he has hit .285 and looks ready to
inherit the center field job. Wells, who just turned 23, is a line-drive hitter
and excellent defensive outfielder. He has decent speed and could put up
respectable if not overwhelming power numbers as well."
12 February, 2002
Kevin
T. Czerwinski, MLB.com, features Beckett at the top of his report on
rookies for 2002. The review also notes Mark Prior and Juan Cruz
CHN, Jon Rauch CHA, Nick Neuebauer MIL and Carlos
Hernandez HOU.
"
... Other hurlers on which to keep an eye include San Diego's Dennis Tankersley
[fantastic slider], San Francisco's Jerome Williams [insiders are
comparing him to a young Dwight Gooden], Philadelphia's Brett Myers,
Cleveland's Ryan Drese, Tampa Bay's Jesus Colome,
Detroit's Nate Cornejo and Seattle's Ryan Anderson."
Czerwinski
sees a couple of middle infielders having an impact :
"
... The crop of young second basemen is led by the Cubs' Bobby Hill
and Toronto's Orlando Hudson. Hill is precariously close to taking
over as the Chicago's everyday second baseman. He's a converted shortstop who
will add spark to the top of the Cubbies lineup. Hudson blistered the Arizona
Fall League to the tune of a .426 average and could unseat Homer Bush as one of
the men up the middle North of the Border."
And,
there's a lot to like in the outfield :
"
... Joe Borchard of the Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati's Austin
Kearns lead a group of a talented young outfielders expected to vie for
starting roles ... Borchard is the former Stanford quarterback with
awesome switch-hitting power potential. He strikes out a little too often but
could be patrolling the outfield in Comiskey for many years to come ...
Philadelphia's Marlon Byrd is remarkable specimen. The powerful
speedster is a 30-30 man in the waiting and should make centerfield at The Vet
his own private domain. He'll likely begin the season at Triple-A but don't be
surprised if he's with the parent club before mid-season."
13 February, 2002
Fantistics Fantasy Baseball
on LA's Kazuhisa
Ishii :
"
... likely to fill the very vital number 2 or 3 slot in the Dodger rotation ...
features a low 90s fastball and a very sharp slider ... not the type of
player who is going to finish many games for the Dodgers this season.. Not only
do ... medical blurbs indicate so, but also consider that in Japan they pitch on
6 days rest, a luxury that will surely not be afforded in American Baseball.
Last season he averaged roughly 7 innings per outing, so although his pitching
can be dominating, he may lack endurance. Although his fastball was overpowering
in Japan, it may not be in America. He has a very high "walks allowed"
to "hits" ratio, indicating that he prefers to fool hitters rather
than blow them away, something that he may get away with early on, but will
catch up to him later in the season ... we think Ishii may be successful early
on, but the arm problems may resurface in 2002, as Ishii will face a more
demanding work load."
Mark
Jerkatis, Top Prospect Alert, moves
on to the Top 20 for this season and Ishii is No 1 with a projection of
-- 12-9, 3.95 ERA, 186IP, 157H, 90BB, 183K :
" ... I figured out how to roughly translate
Japanese stats about three years ago and Suzuki's 2001 season validates the
method. Ishii is a pitcher that is in his prime and while, like Suzuki, he
doesn't have the same upside as the others on this list, he should post the best
numbers in 2002."
14 February, 2002
Taiwanese pitcher Ching-Long Lo is
preparing for his first major league camp. The 6 foot, 5 inch teenage is
in the COL camp. Troy E. Renck, Denver Post :
"
... he's not your average 16-year-old. Not when you go by the name Dragon,
receive a $1.4 million signing bonus ... and tickle the radar gun at 91 mph.
"Dragon is how his name translates. It's what we will call him,"
O'Dowd said, though "Lo" will be embroidered on the back of the
right-hander's uniform. "He's very intelligent with really a lot of
intangibles. And he has good command in the strike zone." The Rockies will
not, however, rush him. For all his talent, he is still a kid, albeit one with a
nasty fastball, split-finger and changeup. And at this point, his 175-pound body
still has too much in common with a lamppost. "Of course we still have some
concerns about his strength and conditioning," O'Dowd said. "We want
to make sure he's healthy and on the proper diet."
A
few, mostly later-round possibilities from John Sickels KC review on ESPN :
"
... Angel Berroa ... Needs Triple-A to hone the strike zone
... has an excellent glove, is fast
and strong, and made progress with plate discipline last year. One of the better
shortstop prospects in the game."
"
... Ken Harvey ... Combined to hit .350 at two levels. Not much of a
glove, but has Kirby Puckett-type hitting potential, making him a born DH."
"
... Mike Tonis ... Top-notch defensive catcher with occasional power. Will
need a full Triple-A season, then should ease into a job in '03."
Jim
Callis, Baseball America, also
provides insights into the KC farm. Angel Berroa grabs the top
ranking :
"
... Berroa has Gold Glove potential at shortstop, where there's nothing he can't
do. He has plenty of range and arm ... got steadier in 2001, cutting his errors
to 33 after making 54 in 2000. Unlike most standout middle-infield defenders, he
can hit. With his speed and pop, Berroa could be a 20-20 player. He led all
minor league shortstops with 60 extra-base hits last season."
MLB.com
has dashed through it's AL team-by-team previews which included a look at the
"New Kids on the Block". Some of their choices :
Mark Sheldon had the joy of ticking off
the prospects in the MIN system.
"
... Michael Restovich ... hit .289 with six homers and 28
RBIs in the 2001 Arizona Fall League. Restovich also had 23 home runs last
season at Double-A New Britain. He will get a chance to compete for the right
field job."
"
... Michael Cuddyer ... hit .336 with four home runs
and 29 RBIs in the AFL after belting 30 homers and batting .301 with New
Britain."
"
... Justin Morneau -- With three teams in the Twins' minor-league
system, Morneau batted a combined .314 with 16 home runs and 97 RBIs in 2001. He
was invited to the Twins' Major League camp this spring."
"
... Joe Mauer ... overall top pick in last year's free agent
entry draft, Mauer batted .400 (44-for-110) with six doubles, two triples and 14
RBIs in 32 games last season for rookie-league Elizabethton."
15 February, 2002
Josh Boyd, Baseball Amerca, went with Joe
Mauer as the top prospect on the talent rich MIN farm :
"
... General manager Terry Ryan graded Mauer higher than any high school prospect
he had ever seen, with three exceptions: Alex Rodriguez, Dwight Gooden and
Darryl Strawberry ... Mauer is so athletically gifted that one scout said he
could be a top-of-the-line defender at first base or third base, if not catcher.
He has a rocket arm and unusual quickness for someone his size. He has a quick
release and the ball comes out of his hand with ease. His makeup matches his
talent."
There's not much to shout about in the BOS
system, but Mike Petraglia MLB.com did find some guys with a shot with the Red
Sox :
"
... Freddy Sanchez ... could challenge for a Major
League infield roster spot if he continues his offensive and defensive growth
... batted .348 for the Grand Canyon Rafters in the 2001 Arizona Fall League ...
had a combined .334 average in a minor league system split between Class-A
Sarasota and Double-A Trenton."
"
... Casey Fossum ... spent the offseason looking to bulk up
and strengthen his 160-pound frame. Fossum should start the 2002 season out of
the Red Sox bullpen."
Damon P. Young handled the TB report :
"
... Dewon Brazelton ... 21-year-old right-hander
received valuable experience last September, spending the final month with the
Rays. He impressed the team with his pitching repertoire (already rated the best
fastball and changeup in the organization by Baseball America) and his work
ethic despite knowing he wasn't going to get into a game."
The Blue Jays boast some top-flight talent ready
to claim jobs on the major league club. Jonathan Mayo :
"
... Felipe Lopez ... defense is Major-League caliber.
The only question is if he can show enough plate discipline to hit consistently.
His OBP has been in the low .300s the last couple of years in the minors.
Bringing that number up would be a very good sign for the Jays."
"
... Eric Hinske ... the 24-year-old Hinske will start
as Toronto's starting third baseman. He can hit for power and gets on base, but
is prone to the strikeout and is a little limited defensively."
"
... Orlando Hudson ... Lacking power, Hudson does have the
ability to line the ball into the gap for extra bases. He was also named the
best defensive second baseman in the Southern League (AA) in 2001. After a
strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, Hudson could compete with Homer Bush
for the second-base job, but will likely begin the season with Triple-A
Syracuse."
"
... Josh Phelps ... had a breakout year in Double-A in 2001,
winning Southern League MVP honors after leading the league in homers and
doubles, finishing second in RBIs and slugging percentage, and third in on-base
percentage. Chosen as the Jays' top prospect by Baseball America, Phelps will
likely spend a year in Triple-A, but has an outside shot of getting a job with
Toronto this spring."
"
... Gabe Gross ... Jays' first-round pick in 2001, Gross has
the ability to do a little bit of everything. He hits for average and power,
runs fairly well and has a strong arm. He also has an amazing knowledge of the
strike zone that belies his 22 years ... Pencil him in as the Jays' right
fielder in 2003 and beyond.
16 February, 2002
David Srinivasan, The Sporting News, thinks Dan Wright CHA
has the potential to be one of the top SPs in baseball :
"
... This spring, he's expected to compete with Gary Glover (a solid young
'un in his own right) for Chicago's fifth rotation spot. Wright gave up a ton of
longballs in the majors, but he's actually a power groundballer. His
grounder/fly ratio would have been one of the highest in the AL if he'd pitched
enough innings ... ,Because of his solid command in Double-A, I expect him to be
a lot better in 2002. In a couple of years, he could be one of the 10-15 best
starters in baseball."
Srinivasan also likes PHI righthander Brandon
Duckworth :
"
... He idolizes Greg Maddux and spends a lot of time trying to mimic
Maddux's ability to change speeds and locate. Duck's curve was voted best
breaking pitch in the International League last season; he has a solid changeup
and slider, and he can touch 94 mph (though his cheese is usually 88-91). I
don't see how he can fail if he's healthy. He can throw any of his pitches for a
strike, and he busts hitters inside if they dig in. He doesn't rattle, and I
expect 15 wins from him."
17 February, 2002
Ken Warren
also has his Top 100 rooks
(rated according to potential peak value) and
again it's the B-Boys leading the pack. The best of the best (the full list on
the Top 100 page) :
Beckett Josh 995,
Blalock Hank 994,
Burroughs Sean 992, Johnson Nick 981,
Cruz Juan 980, Pena Carlos 977, Betemit Wilson 974,
Prior Mark 970, Kearns Austin 966, Tankersley Dennis 965
Ken explains the point system :
"A
value of 1,000 is a perfect prospect (a future Hall of Famer). Everything on
down is sort of relative. Everybody over 900 will almost certainly be a star
with some chance of being a superstar. Everybody over 800 should be a better
than average major league player. After than we get into below average regular
players, good utility players, and then fringe major leaguers."
And ... some of the reviews from the MLB.com
rundown on NL newcomers.
On the Cubs, Jonathan Mayo had a long list
of potential major leaguers :
"
... Hee Seop Choi ... Don't look at his 2001 statistics to
judge what kind of prospect Choi is. A wrist injury limited him to just 77 games
and kept his average at .229. But he still hit 13 homers in 266 at-bats and
walked 34 times ... all signs still point to the Korean-born Choi to get
the first-base job in Chicago in 2003."
"
... Bobby Hill ... only played in 57 Double-A games in 2001
because of a groin injury, he still managed to hit .301 with a sparkling .396
OBP. Then, in the Arizona Fall League, he hit .345 with a .442 on-base
percentage, catapulting him from second baseman of the future to possibly the
second baseman of the present."
Of course, Juan Cruz and Mark Prior
rate mentions, as does Carlos Zambrano :
"
... Cubs have used Zambrano as a starter and reliever in the minors and
briefly in Chicago last year. He throws in the mid-to-upper 90s and has the
endurance to keep that velocity through nine innings. He'll compete for a job
this spring, either as the No. 5 starter or out of the pen. If he shifts
full-time to a relief role, he's definitely a closer-of-the-future type."
20 February, 2002
Jim
Callis, Baseball America,
on the top
five "impact hitters" from the 2001 draft: He goes with Mark
Teixeira TEX as #1, then Casey Kotchman ANA, Joe Mauer
MIN, Gabe Gross TOR and Jack Gautreau SD.
Juan Cruz CHN getting older and
lighter. Maybe he should try my diet. Mike Kiley, Chicago Sun-Times :
"
... Cruz has a problem that many people would like to have. He's too thin.
Cruz, 6-2, has reported to camp at 153 pounds, and manager Don Baylor fears
that's way too skinny to allow Cruz to hold up as a consistent winner in his
first attempt to play a full season in the major leagues. ''He's skinnier than
he was when last season ended,'' Baylor said. ''He was over 160 pounds then [and
is listed in the media guide at 165]. We wanted him coming in this year around
170. He has to put on some weight. ''His stamina and endurance won't be there if
he doesn't get more weight and strength. He has to be able to have some kind of
physical foundation.'' Cruz gained two years this winter when his original birth
certificate showed he was 23, not 21, when he had to obtain a work visa to leave
the Dominican Republic. Where he really needed to gain, however, was on the
scales."
First baseman Casey Kotchman has the look
of a star. He's #1 as Jim Callis, Baseball America, picks the best
of the ANA prospects :
" ... Comparisons to sweet-swinging
lefthanders abound, starting with Todd Helton and Rafael Palmeiro. Some scouts
give Kotchman top grades on the hitting scale, and he’s expected to develop
well-above-average power because of his strong frame, bat speed and uncanny
ability to put the barrel on the ball ... fielding and throwing also
project as plus big league tools. He has all the makings of a future Gold
Glover, playing a textbook first base with graceful actions, soft hands and
solid footwork. The ball seems to disappear into his glove ... Scouts
can barely contain their enthusiasm when talking about him ... refined for
a teenager and ready to jump on the fast track. He should be the first high
school player from last year’s draft to reach the majors, perhaps in
2004."
Kevin Wheeler, The Sporting News on the
omission of Brandon Phillips MON from his Top 100 :
" ... The one thing that concerned me about
him was that his strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped dramatically after his
promotion to Class AA Harrisburg. He had 38 walks compared to 45 strikeouts at
Class A Jupiter before moving up a level, but only 12 walks compared to 42
strikeouts at the higher level. He's still only 20 years old, however, and will
probably wind up on this list next spring."
Chris Reed, ProtospectWatch,
optimistic about Rick Ankiel :
"
... There is always the risk of Ankiel suffering another breakdown, but the
lefty showed every sign of being back on track in his stay in the minors. Ankiel
is one of the few pitchers who can match Josh Beckett's ceiling, and I would
definitely take a gamble on Ankiel in 2002. He will compete for a spot in the
Cards' rotation in spring training and his value could soar. Many have written
Ankiel off, but I definitely have not; he is one of my picks to click in
2002."
So
far, so good for Ankiel. Joe Strauss, St. Louis Post-Dispatch :
"
... Ankiel gripped a baseball, climbed into an unforced delivery and fed a
pitch to his catcher. The 22-year-old lefthander did this again - and again.
Until it appeared routine. "I just want to be treated like everybody
else," Ankiel said. "I don't think I have to prove anything. I just
want to pitch." The Cardinals want nothing more. Since Ankiel reported
early to camp, the club has noticed a more mature, self-assured talent ...
Ankiel threw from a mound for about 15 minutes Monday, his second session of
camp. He threw naturally, his left arm hanging loose between pitches and his
manner appearing unhurried. Another small barrier cleared."
Another
name, a familiar one, for the back burner. Fielder. Prince
Fielder. The 17-year-old son of Cecil Fielder stepped into the cage in
the DET camp :
"
... he put on a dazzling demonstration of power in the batting cage on a
day that's ordinarily dominated by pitchers and catchers. "That's as
impressive a session as I've seen for a high schooler in a long time, maybe
ever," said General Manager Randy Smith. "We just saw some serious
hitting," said Willie Horton, an advisor to Tigers' president Dave
Dombrowski ... It's not absolutely guaranteed that Fielder will sign out of high
school. He's committed to Arizona State if he stays in school, but clearly would
rather turn pro instead. "Me, I would sign if I got drafted in the 58,000th
round," Prince said, "but it's my dad who makes the decisions. I want
to sign, though. I don't really want to go to school." He probably won't
have to unless he slips down in the draft to the point where it wouldn't be
worth his while to sign." (Tom Gage, Detroit News)
22 February, 2002
A show of strength ... the SEA system ... TeamOneBaseball
has the Top 5 as Ryan Anderson, Ryan Christianson, Rafael Soriano, Chris
Snelling and Antonio Perez.
Anderson, for the 5th straight season has
taken the #1 spot on Baseball America's SEA prospect list. Jim Callis
:
"
... Few players can match Anderson’s ceiling ... has a 94-97
mph fastball that he has used to average 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings as a
pro. He was refining his slider into a plus pitch and developing his changeup
before he got hurt. He also had improved his command each season. With his
stuff, there’s no question Anderson can become a legitimate No. 1 starter. He
should be stronger than ever once his rehabilitation is complete ... .career
record is just 20-26 because he’s never put together an extended run of
dominance. Anderson still has to improve his secondary pitches and control,
though he did hold his own in Triple-A before he reached the legal drinking age.
Lefthanders shouldn’t stand a chance against him, but they’ve hit .329 off
him since he reached Double-A ... .The Mariners aren’t going to take any
chances with Anderson ... won’t be in the running for a rotation spot
and may open the year in Double-A San Antonio, where the climate is warmer than
in Triple-A Tacoma. He’ll be kept on tight pitch counts wherever he goes. His
future is still bright, though he won’t have much if any major league impact
before 2003."
Mike Mitchell,
MLBProspect,
has a feature
on Drew Henson NYA which isn't overly optimistic about Henson's
chances to star in MLB :
"
... Henson will improve this year. He won't be a star, but he'll probably do
something like this (given 400-500 ABs): .255 AVG, .315 OBP, .470 SLG, 22 HR, 75
RBI, 30 BB, 120 K. While that would prove to be a step in the right direction,
it still leaves Henson's stock in limbo ... There are oodles of former
prospects and proclaimed future Hall of Famers who could put the ball in the
third deck when the emergency catcher was lobbing it over the plate an hour
before Columbus's first pitch, as twenty scouts sitting behind home plate
drooled on each other. But many never learned how to make adjustments at the
plate, take walks, and use that power with confidence, and that could be an
issue in this case. We like Henson. He's a good prospect with substantial
upside, but won't be a great one until he proves those 2001 numbers were nothing
more than learning on the job."
23 February, 2002
Josh Boyd at Baseball America
has posted
BA's Top 20 for 2002 with a list of familiar names. Josh Beckett at
the top of the heap, followed by Carlos Pena, Kazuhisa Ishii, Sean Burroughs,
and Juan Cruz. The next five -- Eric Hinske, Nick
Johnson, Morgan Ensberg, Carlos Hernandez, and Hank Blalock.
Bruce Miles, The Sporting News, says Mark
Prior is drawing rave reviews :
" ... throwing well in the early
workouts. Prior hasn't pitched since last year's College World Series, but he
came to camp in great shape. He has great command of a fastball that clocks from
92-94 mph. His likely destination to start the season is Double-A West Tenn, but
he could be up during the year."
David Cameron, Strike Three, on Casey
Kotchman (#99 on his Top 100) :
"
... The Angels' only entry was Casey Kotchman, who snuck in at #99 due to
limited pro exposure after being drafted out of high school, but he's going to
move up this list very quickly. Kotchman has tremendous skills for a player his
age and the Angels won't be cautious in pushing him. He could be in the majors
as soon as 2003, and his low ranking on the list has very little to do with his
potential. Kotchman has what it takes to be a star in the big leagues; he just
needs some more seasoning."
Doug Padilla, Chicago Sun-Times, on Jon
Garland CHA :
"
.... Laid-back is one thing. Jon Garland is downright sleepy ...
Garland not only is in the running for two open spots in the rotation, both
manager Jerry Manuel and pitching coach Nardi Contreras said they would be
surprised if the right-hander doesn't leave spring training as a starter ... So
close and yet so carefree. Contreras knows that about Garland and wonders if a
little anger might do the 22-year-old some good.
"That's
something that we have to continue to work on with Jon Garland,'' Contreras
said. "We'd like to see more fire out of him, a little more aggressiveness.
But he's a young guy. He might have been a little bit overwhelmed with the big
leagues to start out with, but he's gained some experience.''
25 February, 2002
More prospecting from David Srinivasan,
The Sporting News. Jake Gautreau SD is interesting
given his switch to 2B :
"
... He's reputedly a very polished hitter, but that K/BB ratio
worries me. The Padres recently moved Gautreau to second base, and the
team is ecstatic about his progress. Some say Gautreau's ceiling is
similar to Jeff Kent's. I like Gautreau, but I'm a little reserved: I want
to see him work the strike zone in high Single-A before I pull a Spike Lee
and get on the bus."
John Buck HOU gets the
Srinivasan seal of approval :
"
... Buck was at low Single-A for the second straight season and doubled
his home run output. This convinced the Astros to send stud catching
prospect Garrett Gentry to Colorado, and leaves Buck as the organization's
sole catching prospect. Buck is a good defender, so he'll stick behind the
plate, but his walk rate dropped 40 percent last year ... went to
the 2001 Arizona Fall League to prep for Double-A, and batted .284-2-18 in
67 at-bats with a 13-5 K/BB ratio. Buck could get a big-league cameo in
September, and might be gunning for Brad Ausmus' job in 2003. He could be
a .280-30-90 hitter in time."
A Canadian lefty is one of the potential
top college picks in the June 2002 draft. TeamOneBaseball
suggests Rutgers righthander Bobby Brownlie and BC's Jeff
Francis are the top guns.
"
... If all goes as planned, Jeff Francis, along with fellow
countryman, Adam Loewan figure to be two of the highest drafted players
ever to come out of Canada. Francis is a tall, lean and projectable lefty
that throws in the low 90's and possesses an excellent breaking pitch as
well. He dominated last year going 12-3 with a 0.92 ERA, 118 K's in 98 IP,
AND 8 complete games in 15 starts."
Will
Kimmey, Baseball America, sees
a rebound by Rick Ankiel STL :
"
... I, for one, think he will be back, and prove to be solid again. His
biggest problems were control and composure and he seemed to have regained
both last year in Johnson City. Sure he struck out a ton of guys there,
but Rookie level guys shouldn't be able to touch a solid major leaguer
anyway. What impressed me was that he walked just 18 in 87 IP. So, I'd
take a flier on Ankiel this year. Obviously not an early pick, but as a
later round guy (or a $1-$5 pickup) who could be a steal."
Ted
Lilly
has a spot with the Yanks, but far from the rotation. Tyler
Kepner, New York Times :
"
... The Yankees have six starters for five spots, and Lilly is not part of
the group ... would seem to be a good fit for Class AAA Columbus, where he
could work on his control and be just an injury from a spot start. But he
is out of options, meaning the Yankees would risk losing him to another
team if they tried to send him to the minors. They will not take that
chance. "He's on the team," Manager Joe Torre said. "You're
not going to sneak him through waivers to outright him. That's not going
to happen, as scarce as pitching is. Even though his experience at the big
league level is limited, there were still signs that he can pitch." Last
chance at age 24? Yikes. But, that's the reality for PIT OF Chad
Hermansen. Robert Dvorchak, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette : "
... Once considered the brightest prospect in the Pirates' minor-league
system, Hermansen has to play well enough to earn a roster spot or risk
being lost to another club ... . has run out of options with the Pirates
... After a disappointing minor-league season in which he hit .246 and
struck out 154 times in 123 games at Nashville, Hermansen spent an
unproductive September with the Pirates before playing in the Arizona Fall
League. One of the older players in a league loaded with major-league
prospects, Hermansen hit .337 with five home runs and 20 RBIs. He struck
out 17 times in 23 games. "The fall league helped me get some
confidence back, helped me feel better about myself," he said."
26 February, 2002
Mark Teixeira
to fifth? That's the TeamOneBaseball
evaluation in their list of the top TEX prospects in a system packed with
young talent :
"The
Rangers are absolutely stocked with hitters; both pure hitters and power
hitters. In the Top-20, there’s Hank Blalock (#1), Ryan Ludwick (#4),
Jason Hart (#11), Mark Teixeira (#5), Kevin Mench (#2), Travis
Hafner (#9), and sleeper catcher Fred Torres (#10). There is not a
team in baseball with this many bats in their farm system. I don’t know if
there’s one who’s even close."
TeamOne goes with Blalock at #1, followed by Kevin
Mench, then Mario Ramos and Ryan Ludwick
before Teixeira.
Baseball America
also had the TEX review
up as it wrapped up its team-by-team reports (next is the Top 100). This
one is more "conventional" with Blalock, Teixeira, Ramos, Colby
Lewis and Ludwick in the Top 5. Gerry Fraley, of the Dallas
Morning News, did the report for BA and sees Blalock as a star :
"
... knows how to play the game and has an advanced grasp of using the entire
field. He makes solid contact and sprays the ball from foul line to foul line.
He has power to the alleys and some scouts project him to hit 30 homers a season
because of his tremendous bat speed and the natural lift in his swing. He has a
short, compact swing and the discipline to sit back on offspeed stuff. ...
Blalock is six months younger than Mark Teixeira, and two years ahead of him in
professional experience. The Rangers plan to start the season with both playing
third base at different levels. Blalock is more athletic and capable of handling
a move to second base or left field. The platoon of Herb Perry and Mike Lamb
buys Blalock a year of development in Triple-A Oklahoma."
Chris Reed, ProtospectWatch, has an
eye on the MIN farm. And, what a system it's become.
Catcher Joe Mauer tops the
list :
"
... Standing 6' 5", Mauer has great plate discipline, power
potential, and the ability to hit for high average. If he develops fully
he could put up a .950+ OPS in the majors. That's incredible offensive
potential that is very, very rare in a catcher. Still, he is fresh out of
high school and will need time to develop. Keep an eye on his doubles and
homeruns because his power could explode at any minute. He will be a very
fun prospect to watch develop."
Down at No. 7, lefty Brad Thomas
:
"
... about ready to make an impact at the Major League level. He will
compete for a spot in the rotation this spring and he has a good shot at
getting some starts if the disgruntled Rick Reed is shipped out. He could
be a league average starter, but he may see more innings coming out of the
pen. He could become a situational lefty or be a useful swing man for the
Twins if he can't settle down as a starter."
Michael Cline at MLBProspect has a
take on what he calls his "balance" team -- solid, but
unspectacular types. The selections include CLE catcher Victor
Martinez :
"
... None of Martinez’s numbers really catch the eye, except for maybe
his .329 batting average. He’s solid all around, even defensively, and
shows well-developed plate discipline."
MIN's Justin Morneau grabs 1B
:
"
... Despite his size, Morneau has yet to really breakout in the power
category. That should come in the next year or two."
28 February, 2002
Jim
Callis, Baseball America, admits underrating Josh Phelps
TOR :
"
... It's time for an about-face on my part. Last summer I questioned the chances
of Phelps to handle catching chores in the big leagues because he was having
trouble throwing out runners in Double-A. He erased just 18 percent of
basestealers, the worst figure among the Southern League's regular catchers
... I liked Phelps' bat, but figured he'd fit in the lineup elsewhere
while Werth stayed behind the plate. It since has come out that Phelps had a
knee injury that severely affected his footwork and mechanics. Accuracy, not arm
strength, apparently was his problem. He's over the elbow problems that limited
him to DH for much of 2000 and should be 100 percent defensively in 2002. The
Blue Jays rave about his receiving and game-calling skills, and it's not out of
the question that he'll be their regular catcher by the end of the season."
Pat Gillick is really
something. Not only do the Mariners come off a 116 win season, the farm
system is loaded with prospects. Even with recent loss of SP prospect Jeff
Heaverlo (arm surgery) the minor league system is well stocked -- beyond the
familiar names such as Ryan Anderson. Chris Reed,
ProtospectWatch, selected outfielder Chris Snelling as the
best of the bunch :
"
... a great all-around player. His only "weakness" lies in his power
numbers, which are fine for a center fielder, but will be a bit sub-standard if
he hopes to compete with the Luis Gonzalez/Gary Sheffield-type sluggers in left.
He should post OPS's in the .850-.900 range with ten or so stolen bases ... .
Snell is a quirky, outgoing young man who is certain to become a fan favorite in
Seattle with his Lenny Dykstra-like approach to the game."
Third on the list (behind Anderson) is RHP Rafael
Soriano (who draws a MLB comparison to Tim Hudson) :
"
... In his first season as a pitcher, Soriano struck more than a batter per
inning with a 3.11 ERA. Three years later, Soriano is still striking out batters
left and right while improving his command. He has adjusted incredibly well to
pitching. Ace reliever and former catcher Felix Rodriguez didn't adjust nearly
as quickly to the mound, suffering from terrible control and undeveloped pitches
while in the minors. Soriano certainly isn't done improving and his future looks
bright. He has the potential to be a frontline starter or reliever at the Major
League level."
Catcher Ryan Christianson is
compared (if he reaches his potential) to Javy Lopez :
"
... Christianson rides intriguing power potential to his #7 ranking. While
he is still more potential than production, his 40+ doubles bode well for an
increase in home runs. Catchers generally develop as a hitters later than other
position players so you can't write off Christianson. He is still very young and
there is always the chance of a power surge. Keep an eye on his SLG over the
next two years."
And, sneaking up the SEA charts, RHP Clint
Nageotte (comparison - Brad Radke) :
"
... After a promising debut in the Arizona rookie league in 2000, Nageotte
followed up with a great performance low A-Wisconsin. The righthander struck out
11 batters per 9 innings and walked 2.95 batters per 9 innings en route to a
3.13 ERA. Those are tremendous ratios and if they are any indication of his
ability he might be vastly underrated in the #9 slot. He should head to High
A-San Bernardino in 2002 and he should continue to dominate. He will shoot up
the charts if he can make to AA-San Antonio and succeed. He's a sleeper."
Rookies
2002 Page Three
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