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28 December, 2003
  Winter
ball ... Puerto Rico -- Yadier Molina STL 3-5, 2 doubles, 2 runs, 2 RBI,
.336 ... Michael Restovich MIN 2-4, .306 ... Luis Matos
BAL, CF, 2-2, double, .300 ... Miguel Negron TOR 3-5, .311 ... Javier
Valentin FA? 4-5, 2 homers, 6 RBI, .254 ... Mexico -- Freddy Bynum
OAK 2-4, double, .306 ... Calvin Pickering KC 2-4, .288
Projections
... among the more tantalizing tidbits at this time of the year are the player
projections. As you know, we've carried Ken Warren's hitting and pitching
projections for the past couple of seasons. This year, Ken is
self-publishing a book (more below) to be available for purchase early in the
New Year. To
get an idea of how Ken's 2003 projections worked out I've taken a small sample
-- my combined league team in the Mantle League -- and compared Ken's offerings
with those from Shandler's Baseball HQ. Overall, with 12 hitters and five
categories for each, there were 60 points for comparison. Final score --
Ken Warren 30, Shandler 23, 7 ties. (I hope to get the report on the
pitching projections in the next day or so). In
BATTING AVERAGE, Ken had the closest projection for 6 of the players, Shandler
5, with a tie. OBA -- Ken 7, Shandler 5. SLG -- Ken 9, Shandler 2, 1
tie. Shandler's best area was in SB, making the closest projection for 6,
while Ken topped with 2 and they tied on 4. In HR -- Ken 6, Shandler 5, 1
tie. Interesting
that neither really had a handle on relative newcomers -- Cintron, Matos -- and
both missed the power surge from Varitek.
Actual 2003 2003
Shandler 2003 Warren
BA OBA SLG SB HR BA OBA SLG SB
HR BA OBA SLG SB HR
Koskie Corey .292 .393 .452 11 14 .276 .364 .460 13 17 .280
.369 .460 16 23
Varitek Jason .273 .351 .512 3 25 .270 .340 .420 2 11
.264 .334 .419 2 16
Helton Todd .358 .458 .630 0 33 .335 .431 .615 4
28 .339 .433 .644 6 43
Piazza Mike .286 .377 .483 0 11 .287 .362 .543 0
25 .290 .369 .554 0 33
Gonzalez Luis .304 .402 .532 5 26 .303 .400 .538 6 28
.305 .396 .535 6 39
Kent Jeff .297 .351 .509 6 22 .323 .386
.617 7 36 .310 .400 .590 6 32
Ibanez Raul .294 .345 .454 8 18 .304 .360 .550 4
29 .287 .348 .525 3 26
Jones Andruw .277 .338 .513 4 36 .284 .359 .555 2
38 .275 .356 .530 10 38
Cintron Alex .317 .359 .489 2 13 .274 .297 .323 1
0 .270 .290 .365 6 2
Alou Moises .280 .357 .462 3 22 .285 .356 .479 6
18 .300 .357 .464 6 22
Matos Luis .303 .353 .458 15 13 .241 .313 .414
2 1 .240 .320 .415 10 3
Perez Neifi .256 .285 .348 3 1 .240 .273
.325 2 1 .255 .262 .336 4 2
At
least TB can look to the future. Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America, in his
review of the 2003 TB Top 10 and 2003 draft, sees much to like, including BJ
Upton :
"
... got off to a slow start in his pro debut, but found himself in Double-A at
the age of 18 after hitting .411 in July. A five-tool player right now with an
excellent batting eye, Upton is one of the top prospects in the game and it's
not out of question that he could make his major league debut before his 20th
birthday. Led all minor leaguers with 56 errors, but that was mostly a result of
showing off his plus arm as opposed to sloppy play. He projects as a plus
defender."
"
... Dewon Brazelton ... miserable in 10 major league starts and
found himself all the way down to the Class A California League to fix his
mechanics, where he only began to make progress as the season came to a close.
Returned to his old delivery while adding a plus slider to his repertoire in the
Arizona Fall League, where he went 5-0 and led the circuit in strikeouts. By all
accounts, he's back on track."
"
... Antonio Perez ... showed solid power and on-base skills
for a middle infielder, and held his own at the major league level while playing
second base, third base and shortstop. His versatility and pop should ensure him
of at the very least a bench role in 2004."
"
... Top Draft Pick: Delmon Young ... first overall pick ...
made a strong statement by reporting to the advanced Arizona Fall League and
hitting .417 in 15 games just weeks after his 18th birthday. Both physically and
in his swing mechanics, he's an Albert Belle doppelganger, and he should be
productivity-wise as well."
Looks
as if Mike Gullo -- The Minors First -- is to be the first off the mark with a
Top 100. Mike's 4th annual prospect list is due next Thursday, January 1st
!
Ken's
book, "Baseball Projections, 2004" is scheduled for shipping on
January 12th. Contact Ken for more info.
John Sickels prospect book is due for shipping in early February. More
info.
25 December, 2003 Winter
ball ... Puerto Rico Tuesday ... Dicky Gonzalez TB 9.0 5 1 1 0 10, 3-0,
1.33 ... Michael Restovich MIN 3rd homer, 2 RBI, .294 A
snapshot of winter ball stats (most through Dec 22nd) ... prospects, along with
some guys battling for MLB bench jobs & a few other names of interest :
PLAYER
AVG G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS SLG OBP
E
Hernandez, Ramon,1B .400
6 20 3 0 0 1 3 0 0
.550 .455 0
Brown, Emil,OF
.388 34 129 12 0 7 18 25 6 3 .643
.484 4
#Jimenez, D'Angelo,2B .360 38 136
9 2 2 32 11 2 1 .500 .485 3
Feliz,
Pedro,3B
.355 35 138 8 1 6 7 20 1 0
.558 .384 5
Rios, Alexis,OF
.355 35 138 7 4 12 11 20 1 3 .725
.403 1
Infante, Omar,SS
.352 56 216 12 2 7 26 43 12 3 .523 .423 17
Pemberton, Rudy,DH .347 52
176 11 0 5 31 21 5 4 .494 .455 2
Salazar, Ruben,OF
.342 51 184 9 0 6 19 37 0 0 .489
.402 3
Valderrama, Carlos,OF .342 40 114 11
0 5 8 23 4 2 .570 .385 1
*LaRoche, Adam,1B
.333 28 96 6 0 7 19 18 1 1
.615 .442 1
#Olmedo, Rainer,SS .333
30 96 4 3 0 9 15 0 5 .438
.407 6
Callaspo, Alberto,2B .333 43 123
6 1 0 10 12 1 0 .398 .382 3
*Gload, Ross,OF
.328 58 232 10 1 12 23 28 3 4 .534
.388 4
#McDonald, Donzell,OF .326 40 144
7 3 5 26 30 11 6 .521 .430 2
*Sledge, Termel,OF .326
24 95 8 0 3 7 18 1 2 .505
.369 1
Diaz,
Victor,2B
.320 28 103 10 1 2 3 27 3 0 .495
.346 1
Clemente, Edgar,OF .320 31
103 7 2 6 21 19 8 2 .602 .445 0
Gibson, Derrick,OF .314 39
140 5 0 10 14 35 0 1 .564 .382 2
#Furcal, Rafael,2B .310
19 71 5 1 3 12 11 5 1 .535
.417 2
Molina, Yadier,C
.308 35 107 6 0 2 5 13 0 0
.421 .336 3
#Reyes, Rene,OF
.306 48 206 11 5 8 15 33 3 3 .524
.361 9
*Pie, Felix,OF
.302 29 63 2 1 0 8 12 2
1 .365 .389 0
Rivera, Juan,OF
.301 22 83 7 0 4 6 12 0
1 .530 .356 3
#Yan,
Ruddy,2B
.300 24 10 0 0 0 0 6
2 0 .300 .300 0
#Perez, Neifi,SS
.299 23 87 6 0 2 8 6
0 1 .437 .358 3
Quiroz, Guillermo,C .299 39
127 4 1 11 6 42 0 0 .606 .353 4
Restovich, Michael,OF .297 18 64
6 2 2 8 15 0 2 .547 .384 0
Matos, Luis,OF
.296 14 54 1 1 0 2 7
1 0 .352 .345 0
#Gimenez, Hector,C .295 44
139 7 2 4 11 40 1 0 .460 .340 2
Nivar, Ramon,OF
.293 19 82 4 1 0 2 9
4 1 .366 .322 1
*Pena, Carlos,1B
.291 34 134 8 2 6 17 30 1 0 .515
.374 2
Bloomquist, Willie,OF .289 26 83
4 2 1 10 8 6 2 .422 .371 2
*Pickering, Calvin,1B .284 44 148
4 0 13 32 34 0 0 .574 .415 7
*Negron, Miguel,OF .283 36
113 2 1 2 5 32 6 2 .372
.314 0
Castro, Ramon,C
.282 23 71 2 0 5 9 12 0
0 .521 .366 1
#Amezaga, Alfredo,2B .281 56 217
10 1 1 31 34 12 2 .350 .378 9
Terrero, Luis,OF
.276 9 29 2 0 0 3 10
0 2 .345 .344 0
*Bynum, Freddie,2B .275
10 40 1 1 1 6 10 3 0 .425
.362 3
*Choi, Hee Seop,1B .271
23 85 7 0 4 11 25 0 0 .494
.347 3
*Pond, Simon,DH
.270 40 141 7 1 10 11 27 3 0 .546
.331 2
Brown,
Dee,
.267 8 30 2 0 0 5 6
0 0 .333 .371 0
German, Esteban,2B .266 41
158 4 0 3 17 23 12 1 .348 .339 4
Marte,
Andy,3B
.262 18 42 3 0 1 10 14 1 0
.405 .404 4
House, J.R.,C
.261 14 46 3 0 0 5 14 0
0 .326 .358 1
Youkilis, Kevin,3B .259 35
112 2 0 1 29 17 2 2 .304 .413 4
*Tracy,
Chad,3B
.258 26 93 2 1 5 8 20 1
0 .462 .324 2
Gonzalez, Raul,OF
.255 39 137 4 1 11 16 19 4 3 .540
.346 4
Castillo, Jose,OF
.255 53 192 9 2 5 23 43 2 3 .401
.333 6
#Gotay, Ruben,2B
.253 34 95 8 0 0 13 16 4 0
.337 .349 5
*Durazo, Erubiel,1B .244
12 41 3 0 1 10 14 0 0 .390
.404 2
Escobar, Alex,OF
.240 16 50 3 0 2 6 20 0
2 .420 .333 1
Perez, Antonio,2B
.238 6 21 1 0 0 2 5
0 1 .286 .292 0
Buck, John,C
.234 34 94 3 0 3 10 15 0 0
.362 .327 2
*Cano, Robinson,3B .232
34 99 5 1 2 9 10 1 0 .364
.303 4
#Closser, J.D.,1B
.225 22 71 1 0 2 12 16 0 1
.324 .337 4
Gutierrez, Franklin,OF .224 49 143 6
3 3 15 41 1 1 .371 .300 2
#Aybar, Erick,SS
.222 26 81 3 0 0 7 12 7
0 .259 .284 6
Davis, J.J.,OF
.212 15 52 2 1 3 8 18 0
1 .462 .317 2
#Guzman, Freddy,OF .192 36
125 4 3 1 13 27 13 3 .296 .268 2
*Morneau, Justin,1B .190
20 79 4 0 2 5 24 0 0 .316
.235 3
#Betemit, Wilson,3B .161
8 31 1 0 0 3 9 2 1
.194 .235 3
Cabrera, Miguel,3B
.160 7 25 0 0 1 3 11
0 0 .280 .250 1
*Hodges, Scott,3B
.158 15 57 2 0 0 5 10 0
0 .193 .226 2
#Hill, Koyie,C
.149 24 87 4 0 3 4 15 1
2 .299 .194 0
Mateo, Ruben,DH
.077 7 26 0 0 1 1 9
0 0 .192 .172 0
PITCHER
W L ERA G GS CG IP H HR HB BB SO
WP
Soriano, Rafael 1 1
0.25 7 5 0 35.1 16 0 1 14 20 0
Rodney, Fernando 1 1 0.53
10 0 0 17.0 6 1 1 5 22 0
*Figueroa, Jonathan 0 0 0.71 10
0 0 12.2 10 0 1 12 13 0
Schmack, Brian 3
0 0.82 17 0 0 22.0 16 0 0
3 9 2
Cruz, Juan Carlos 3 0 1.04
5 2 0 26.0 14 0 1 8 33 0
Butto, Francisco 6 1 1.05
25 0 0 34.1 19 1 1 4 30 1
*Sadler, Carl
1 1 1.38 17 0 0 13.0 10 0 0 0
13 0
Gonzalez, Dicky 2 0
1.38 9 9 1 52.0 42 0 3 6
54 0
Munro,
Pete
2 1 1.43 7 7 1 37.2 28 0 0
9 26 1
Hernandez, Adrian 3 0 1.64
4 3 0 22.0 12 2 1 4 21 1
Yan,
Esteban
4 0 1.83 9 7 0 54.0 42 0 4
7 29 1
*Mullen, Scott 4
1 1.83 8 6 1 44.1 37 2 4 15
25 2
Benoit, Joaquin 0 0
1.88 3 2 0 14.1 8 0 1 7
13 0
Nieve, Fernando 4 1
1.88 7 7 0 38.1 24 3 0 8
46 1
Hurtado, Edwin 6
3 1.98 12 12 3 86.1 62 5 1 17 83 5
Gonzalez, Edgar 1 1
2.25 3 3 0 12.0 11 0 2 1
8 1
Campos, Francisco 9 2 2.32 13
13 0 85.1 75 2 3 29 67 1
Balfour, Grant 1
0 2.45 3 0 0 3.2 5 0
0 1 9 0
*Beltran, Rigo 5
0 2.61 10 10 0 58.2 41 6 1 25 51 1
Valverde, Jose 2
0 3.00 14 0 0 18.0 17 1 2 10 17
1
Prieto, Ariel
4 3 3.12 11 11 0 69.1 60 5 4 20 43 2
Lopez, Aquilino 0 2
3.16 18 1 0 25.2 24 2 1 3 13 1
Jenks,
Bobby 4
1 3.22 9 7 2 44.2 27 1 2 29
42 5
*Aguilar, Ray
2 4 4.26 11 11 0 57.0 58 8 4 21 50 2
Yoshii, Masato 0
2 4.34 7 6 0 29.0 33 3 1 6
19 2
*Bierbrodt, Nick 1 5
4.87 8 8 0 44.1 53 5 2 14 38 0
Griffiths, Jeremy 1 2 6.94
7 7 0 23.1 24 0 4 17 10 4
24 December, 2003
Winter
ball ... Puerto Rico ... Bobby Jenks ANA 7.0 1 1 0 2 10 ... Donzell
McDonald FA
0-2, 2 walks & 1-4, 5th homer, .326 ... Alexis Rios TOR 1-5, 7th double,
.355 ... Michael Restovich MIN 2-4, .297 ... Yadier Molina STL 2-4, double, .308
... Brian Schmack DET (NRI) appears to have made some progress, 2.0 1 0 0 0 0,
0.82 ERA in 22 innings, just 3 walks, just 9 Ks ... Mexico -- Alfredo Amezaga
ANA 4-6, 10th double, 4 runs, 4 RBI, .281 ... Calvin Pickering KC (NRI) 2-5, 3
RBI, .284 ... Edgar Gonzalez ARZ 5.0 6 2 2 0 3, 2.25 ... Venezuela --
Guillermo
Quiroz TOR 2-4, .305 ... Miguel Cabrera FLO 3-4
John
Sickels, ESPN.com, looking at some guys who may be looking at road maps over the
holidays :
"
... Jorge de la Rosa, LHP (Boston to Arizona to Milwaukee) ...has a live
left arm, with a 90-94 mph fastball. His curveball and changeup are sometimes
mediocre, sometimes very good, and he's made strides in improving his control.
He posted a 2.98 ERA with a 119/48 K/BB ratio between Double-A and Triple-A in
'03. He could begin the year in the Milwaukee rotation."
"
... Chris Capuano, LHP (Arizona to Milwaukee) ... missed
2002 with Tommy John surgery, but recovered successfully and pitched well in
'03. His fastball is average at 88 mph, but his curveball, slider, and changeup
are solid pitches, and he throws strikes. He appeared in nine games for the
D-Backs at the end of the year, posting a 4.64 ERA. But this was deceptive; his
component ERA, what you'd expect his ERA to be considering his K/IP, H/IP, and
K/BB ratios, was much better at 3.45. He is a major sleeper for 2004 and could
be one of Milwaukee's best pitchers."
"
... Mike Nannini, RHP (Cubs to Marlins) ... originally
drafted by the Astros in the supplemental first round in 1998 ...
fastball is mediocre at a consistent 88-89 mph. His curveball and changeup are
very good and he has excellent command, posting a 158/47 K/BB ratio in 154
innings this year for Double-A West Tennessee. Scouts worry that Nannini's
mediocre fastball will preclude him from big major-league success, but he has a
good feel for pitching and could emerge as a Brad Radke-type starter." Taking
a re-look at Dayn Perry's Top 10 OF ranking. Just in case you haven't been
paying attention, this on Alexis Rios TOR even before his splendid winter
ball campaign :"
... Prior to 2003, Rios, a first-rounder in 1999, didn't look like much of a
prospect. But that's before he completely exploded in the Eastern League. This
past season, toiling for New Haven, Rios, in 514 ABs, put up a batting line of
.352 AVG/.402 OBP/.521 SLG. That's impressive. There are some causes for
skepticism. One, 2003 was the first uniformly strong season in his career, and,
two, a lot of his value is tied up in his batting average ...Still, that he tore
up the high minors to such a degree is hard to ignore. He needs to improve his
walk rate and prove 2003 wasn't a fluke. I like his chances on both
counts."
And,
there's a sleeper for the Expos, long time farmhand Terrmel Sledge :
"
... You don't hear much about Sledge, an eighth-rounder in 1999 ...but he's a
good one. At 26, he's too old to be an elite prospect, but he's done nothing but
hit his entire career. A career batting line of .308 AVG/.400 OBP/.473 SLG tells
the story. As those numbers indicate, Sledge can hit for average, draw walks and
stroke balls to the gaps. He's coming off a particularly strong season in the
PCL, and with the exodus of Vlad Guerrero he's probably won himself at least a
platoon job at the highest level. Don't be surprised if he emerges as a
dark-horse rookie-of-the-year candidate in 2004."
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