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11 January, 2004
 Here
he goes again, launching the annual appeal with the slightly battered, but
trusty tin cup (staking out the choice street locations). (Although not nearly
as crafty as the guy with the leather jacket, Rolex & cell phone outside
Shopper's Drug Mart on St. Clair Avenue in Toronto.) Many thanks to
those who've already sent in contributions for the new season. If you can
help out, click the cup image (at right or below). Wishes to all for a
great holiday season with friends and family and good health and much success in
the coming year. jdm
 Winter
ball playoffs ... Bobby Jenks ANA improving his prospect status
game by game, 9.0 3 0 0 4 11 ... Edwards Guzman TB NRI 5-5, double,
2 homers, 3 runs, 4 RBI ... beginning to think I might keep Victor
Zambrano, TB geeze 12 Ks, NO walks, 6.0 4 1 1 0 12 ... Miguel
Cabrera FLO, 1-4, homer ...
Troop
movements ... Deric McKamey, after nine years of outstanding work with
Shandler's BBHQ, has joined TeamOneBaseball as Minor League Scouting Director
...
He's
no longer considered a primo prospect, but Michael Restovich might just
win a bench spot following his impressive winter ball season : "
... Twins general manager Terry Ryan said he doesn't put too much stock in
Winter League statistics but liked the reports he received from Puerto Rico.
"Restovich had a good stint," Ryan said. "He went down there for
a month and played well. It was encouraging." A big 6-foot-4-inch,
250-pound power hitter, Restovich has been prone to strikeouts and not drawing
many walks during his career. But in 84 at-bats with Carolina, he struck out 18
times, while also drawing 13 walks. During a 2003 season spent mostly at
Triple-A Rochester, Restovich batted .275 with 16 homers and 72 RBIs. Those
numbers paled some compared to his impressive 2002 Triple-A stats, when he
batted .286 with 29 homers and 98 RBIs ... The Twins plan on giving Restovich a
chance to earn a roster spot in the upcoming season as a reserve outfielder.
Just like in recent years, the club will have a wealth of young outfield talent
in Spring Training competing for limited spots, including prospects Michael
Cuddyer, Michael Ryan and Lew Ford." (MLB.com) Jose
Capellan? 99 MPH? A top ATL prospect? MLB.com thinks he's a good
one :
"
... Before he was placed on the 40-man roster in November, Jose Capellan was a
relatively little-known prospect among Braves fans. But if this 23-year-old
right-hander continues to rattle radar guns the way he has over the past year,
he may soon be a household name around the Majors. Capellan, who missed most of
the 2001 and 2002 seasons after having Tommy John surgery, is considered by many
to have the liveliest arm in the Braves organization. He's been regularly
clocked around 98 mph and has even touched 99 a time or two. Capellan is
currently playing for Escogido in his native Dominican Republic. After 13 games
(one start), the right-hander was 0-2 with a 3.74 ERA and had recorded 14
strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings ... Every report that Dayton Moore, the Braves'
director of player personnel, and his staff have received regarding Capellan
this winter has been positive. Scouts have reported that Capellan's fastball has
regularly been clocking around 95 mph to 97 mph." Scott
Tex, OnDeck, rates Capellan as the 22nd best prospect in the ATL system. So,
what now? Maurer, Mathis, Quiroz, Navarrro & Shoppach are gone.
To borrow a song title from Peggy Lee, Is that all there is? Time for some
digging.
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
R KC1 Maier Mitch 51 203
14 6 2 18 25 .350 .403 .507 .910
Mitch
Maier KC " ... Royals Maier was drafted 30th overall in 2003
after a tremendous career at the University of Toledo. The left-handed hitter
projects as a quality bat, but his glove, or more accurately, his arm, leaves a
lot to be desired behind the plate. The Royals have already started working him
out at third base and could make the switch permanent next year." (RotoWorld)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
A+ PIT Doumit Ryan 127 458 38 1
11 45 79 .275 .351 .434 .785 Ryan
Doumit PIT " ... The biggest thing for Doumit was staying in
the lineup ... He dodged injuries in 2003 and appeared in 127 games, 86 behind
the plate. Doumit has a lot of offensive potential for a catcher. He's a
switch-hitter who makes consistent contact and has line-drive power. He's also
athletic for his position, though he needs more time at catcher to improve
defensively. "I like his bat a lot, but you give something up with him
behind the plate," one manager said. "I have no problem with his arm
strength. It's his ability to receive, call games and handle a staff that I
question." "
... Doumit is a streaky hitter and needs to be more consistent. Despite his good
defensive tools, CL teams ran on him. He needs to become more accurate with his
throws, and some question his game-calling and receiving ability ... will
catch in Double-A in 2004 and is on track to reach Pittsburgh in 2006. Incumbent
Jason Kendall will have two years left on his six-year, $60 million contract if
he hasn't been traded by then. Doumit has the stuff be a No. 1 catcher in the
majors." (Baseball America)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
A NYA Sprowl Jon-Mark 124 418 30 3 5
71 39 .321 .425 .443 .868
Jon-Mark
Sprowl NYA " ... 47th-round selection in 1997, Sprowl
has played all around the diamond, but the Yanks have apparently settled on him
as a catcher ... ,he has potential with the bat, too. He's a career .292 hitter
who also draws walks at a strong rate, and that means his OBPs are quite good.
What he lacks is power. He's old for a player still in low-A ball, and players
who become catchers at such a late age generally have a poor track record.
Although an exception by the name of Posada comes to mind. Sprowl needs to
increase his power and show he can perform at the higher levels." (FoxSports)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
A OAK Baker
John 82 304 23 2 6
47 77 .309 .414 .457 .871
AA OAK Baker John 43
150 3 0 1 14 46 .240 .316 .280 .596
John Baker
OAK " ... He barely got mentioned in "Moneyball," but Baker
may have a more realistic chance of one day becoming Oakland's everyday catcher
than Jeremy Brown, a first-round pick and a central figure in the book. Even
with a below-average arm, average receiving skills and adequate blocking
ability, Baker is more likely to stay behind the plate. Like Brown, Baker will
let his bat carry him. Though he doesn't control the strike zone as well as
Brown, Baker is a disciplined hitter who uses the whole field and makes
consistent sweet-spot contact. (Baseball America)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
A+ ARZ Snyder
Chris 69 245 16 2 10 35 43 .314 .414
.518 .932
AA ARZ Snyder
Chris 53 188 14 0 4 19 29 .202
.286 .340 .626
Chris
Snyder ARZ " ... " ... Snyder is a 22-year old who the
Diamondbacks picked in the second round of the 2002 draft out of the University
of Houston. He has great skills behind the plate and dominated at the plate at
the High A level. However, he was too old for the league and he needs to prove
he can hit at a higher level of competition. The early results from Double A
aren't great, but it's not a big enough sample to say anything significant. He
has the potential to be a great defensive catcher with average-above average
offense for the position." (Prospect Report, July 2003) "
... Snyder has the prototypical big, strong catcher's build scouts look for. He
smacked 19 home runs in his first 462 at-bats, in high Class A Lancaster, to
earn a promotion to Double-A El Paso. Both are hitter's havens, but Double-A
will serve as a better gage for Snyder's long-term offensive ceiling.
Defensively, he has all the tools, with the take-charge attitude expected from a
backstop." (July, 2003, Baseball America)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
AA ARZ Ansman
Craig 63 213 17 1 15 31 58 .324 .421
.624 1.045 Craig
Ansman ARZ " ... Ansman has
plus-plus raw power, but scouts question how that will translate at higher
levels. He struggles with offspeed stuff and pitches out of his zone. "He
is very stiff, and I don't believe he will ever make the throw to second base
consistently," an NL scout said. "He has bat speed and plus
juice." (Baseball America, July 2003)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
A ATL McCann
Brian 115 424 31 3 12 24 73 .290 .329
.462 .791 Brian
McCann ATL " ... produced 35 multi-hit games and a .290
batting average in an all-star season with the Rome Braves of the lower-level
Class A South Atlantic League. More impressive, the 19-year-old hit .346 with 17
doubles and nine homers away from pitcher-friendly Floyd County Park ... .The
lefthanded-hitting backstop smacked righties for a .316 average, but managed to
hit just .216 against fellow southpaws. The Georgia native had an outstanding
defensive year as well, producing a .995 fielding percentage in 64 games behind
the plate. The 6-3, 190-pound backstop threw out over 38 percent of potential
basestealers." (SportsTicker) "
... Few are certain that Brian McCann can remain a catcher, but he sure shows an
awfully nice power bat for that position, and most other positions to boot.
Nineteen-year-old catchers with a slugging percentage 28 percent above league
average deserve mention. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't note that his BB:K
ratio was not pretty (24 BB, 73 K in 424 AB). Additionally, he'll need to hold
off 2003 draftee Jarrod Saltalmacchia. I recommend that McCann do everything he
can to stay behind the plate." (StrikeThree)
G AB 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
OPS
R MIL Palmisano
Louis 47 174 13 2 6 18 29 .391 .458 .592 1.050 "
... Lou Palmisano MIL .... hurt his shoulder in 2002 and required
surgery, but bounced back with a solid year in junior college that had some
scouts calling him the best catcher in the draft. In desperate need of help
behind the plate, the Brewers happily snapped him up in the third round. He
earned MVP honors in the Rookie-level Pioneer League ... The only negative was
that he broke his left ankle trying to bust up a double play ... athletic behind
the plate, with good quickness, soft hands and a strong arm ... has a
quick bat and power to all fields ...Palmisano will be put on a fast track. His
aggressive nature and leadership skills should serve him well as he moves toward
the big leagues. He should see high Class A at some point in 2004." "
... Palmisano attracted comparisons to Mike Piazza before he broke
his left ankle breaking up a double play in mid-August. That might be
overstating Palmisano's talent, but he did lead the league in batting, slugging
(.592) and on-base percentage (.458) ... does have a few holes in his swing and
struggles with pitches above the belt ... "He was the MVP of the
league for a reason," Sedar said. "He's an excellent offensive player
and a very polished catcher for a 20-year-old. He always plays hard and gives
you everything he's got." (Baseball America)
10 January, 2004
Winter
ball playoffs ... Edgar Gonzalez ARZ continues to impress 8.1 6 2 2 1 3
... Justin Wayne FLO, six no-hit frames, 6.0 0 0 0 3 5 ... Luis
Matos BAL 1-4, homer, 2 RBI ... Alexis Rios TOR 1-5,
triple, 2 RBI
Troop
movements ... former phenoms dumped ... TB finally gave up on Matt White,
designated for assignment ... Ryan Anderson dropped by SEA : "
... Anderson was designated for assignment Friday by the Seattle Mariners to
open a roster spot for newly signed shortstop Rich Aurilia. The Mariners have 10
days to trade Anderson, release him or send him outright to the minor leagues.
The 6-foot-10 Anderson has missed the last three seasons. He had surgery in
March 2001 to repair a torn left rotator cuff, and additional operations in
March 2002 and last June for a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Anderson,
nicknamed the "Little Unit," was Seattle's No. 1 pick in the 1997
amateur draft. He has drawn comparisons to Arizona Diamondbacks star Randy
Johnson because of his height, his tough slider and a 100-mph fastball. Anderson
hasn't pitched in a game since going 5-8 with a 3.98 ERA for Triple-A Tacoma in
2000. He had 146 strikeouts and 55 walks in 104 innings." (Associated
Press) "
... The Devil Rays on Friday designated for assignment right-hander pitcher Matt
White, who has been with the organization seven years ... White, 25, was
originally the seventh overall pick by the Giants in the first round of the 1996
First-Year Player Draft. He became one of four "loophole free agents"
that year when the Giants did not offer him a contract within the timeframe
specified by MLB rules. Tampa Bay signed him on Nov. 25, 1996, and gave him a
record $10.2 million signing bonus. He started 20 and 26 games, respectively, in
the minors in 1999 and 2000 but has been dogged by arm and shoulder problems
ever since. He has pitched in just 31 games since, undergoing surgeries in 2001
and then again last summer." Man,
what washouts ... the 1996 oophole free agents ... along with White, Travis
Lee, John Patterson and Bobby Seay. CLE
taking it easy with a pair of lefty rehab cases : "
... Left-handed starters Billy Traber and Brian Tallet are on
schedule in their recovery from Tommy John surgery, but they aren't likely to
see Jacobs Field until very late in the season, if at all. Medical evidence
developed by Tribe doctors has caused them to go slowly. ``We don't want to let
guys like that start until they're 18 months from surgery,'' Shapiro said. ``So
they will pitch first in the bullpen.'' That means mostly on rehab assignments
at least 12 months post surgery. ``I wouldn't expect to see either guy pitch in
Cleveland, except maybe in September,'' the GM said." (Akron Beacon
Journal) Josh
Boyd, Baseball America, in the chatroom with more on how Dioner Navarro ranks
with other backstop prospects : "
... I really like (Justin) Huber, he has a nice bat, but I think Navarro
gets that edge by quite a margin. Most scouts we talked to this season agreed.
He's more well rounded and more advanced defensively, and at the plate. I also
think there is more projection in the athletic Navarro." "
... Guillermo Quiroz ranks behind Joe Mauer and Jeff
Mathis as the best in the game, Navarro is close behind, Cash has to
rebound but is realistically a backup catcher with outstanding defensive skills
and (Jeremy) Brown isn't really in the same group. He has a lot of work
to do to justify the hype the A's put on him."
Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball America, in his review of last season's TOR Top 10
cited a trio of up and comers who failed to make the 2003 list, but look to be
prominent in this year's ranking : "
... David Bush ... A converted closer out of Wake Forest, Bush went a
combined 14-6, 2.79 and Dunedin and New Haven, with an impressive 148/28 K/BB
ratio. Had three games of 10+ strikeouts." "
... Vince Perkins ... A hulking (6-5) righty with a
raw but powerfull arm, Perkins made tremendous strides in 2003, allowing just 18
hits over 44 innings in the Sally League and finishing the year 14-7, 2.24 with
an impressive .179 opponents average." "
... Quillermo Quiroz ... Signed ... as a Venezuelan teenager
in 1998, Quiroz finally began to show some production with the bat in 2002, and
that trend continued in 2003, as hit .282-20-79 at New Haven, leading the
organization in home runs. Always an outstanding defensive player, he gunned
down 44 percent of base stealers."
Jim
Callis, Baseball America, on CLE 3B prospect Matt Whitney :
"
... supplemental first-round pick in 2002 and hit .286/.359.537 with 10
homers and 33 RBIs in 45 games at Rookie-level Burlington that summer. He was so
impressive that the Indians mentioned Manny Ramirez when discussing Whitney's
offensive potential. But he broke his leg in two places while playing basketball
last February and missed all of 2003 while having two surgeries. The Indians
hope that he'll be almost ready for full activity at the start of spring
training. Whitney can become an all-around star at third base. He's a good
athlete who eventually should have power to all fields and above-average
defensive ability." Hmmm.
Blake Hawksworth over Adam Wainwright? Scott Rex
makes that pick in his STL Top 10 at OnDeck. Rex also rates Daric Barton
over Yadier Molina as the best catching prospect on the Cards. Yadier
Molina, however, attracting attention from his winter ball success : "
... enjoying a strong campaign with the bat in the Puerto Rican winter league.
Serving as the starting catcher for Carolina, Molina sports a .317 batting
average with a .341 on-base percentage and .437 slugging percentage. For a
player with Molina's exceptional defensive ability, numbers like that will go a
long way. The most encouraging element of Molina's winter is his power. He
tallied 16 extra-base hits in more than 100 games in Double-A this year, but
he's already rapped out 11 in 39 games in Puerto Rico. He doesn't strike out
much and doesn't walk much. ... For Molina to survive that huge jump from low
Class A to Double-A was an accomplishment, especially since he didn't turn 21
until July. If, as expected, he starts the '04 season in Triple-A, he will be
one of the youngest players on Memphis' roster as well. Molina's defense has
always been there. If his offense keeps coming along, there will be a Major
League job ready for him sooner than later." (MLB.com) Ramon
Nivar, a little roadblock on his fast tracking to TEX : "
... I think the perfect world is for him to go back and maybe see what he's like
to another 100-200 at-bats in Triple-A, and by that time we're going to have
more of a feeling on Laynce Nix in center," Texas assistant general manager
Grady Fuson said. "Then we will know which way to go. "We're not going
to forget about Ramon Nivar as a second baseman, either. Don't get me wrong,
we've got a very good one right now, but Michael Young is arbitration-eligible
next year. The good thing about Ramon is we've increased our flexibility with
him." Nivar's transition to the outfield might have been a quick one, but
the Rangers want it to be smoother. ... Offensively, Nivar is similar to Florida
sparkplug Juan Pierre in that he swings at a lot of pitches but makes contact
with regularity. The Rangers would like for him to consider making the walk part
of his arsenal -- he had just 25 and 406 at-bats in the minors, and three walks
against 50 at-bats for Texas." (MLB.com)
09 January, 2004
Winter
ball, playoffs ... Luis Matos BAL 3-5 ... Val Pascucci MON 3-4,
homer ... Miguel Cabrera FLO 3-4, 2 homers, 4 RBI Another
catcher moving up the charts. Dioner Navarro has vaulted to the top
of the Yankees' prospect chart. Josh Boyd : "
... His combined .321 average ranked fourth among minor league catchers
... Navarro was a second and third baseman as an amateur, and his successful
move behind the plate has conjured comparisons to another infielder turned
catcher, Jorge Posada. While Navarro doesn’t project to hit for the same
power, he has separated himself from the pack by working counts and making hard
contact to all fields ... has a short, compact swing but manages to cover the
plate, and he’s tough to strike out ... shows more power potential from the
right side, though he can get a little pull-happy and could top out at 20 home
runs. Navarro’s cat-like quickness around the plate impresses scouts ... There
are mixed opinions on his defense. He needs to improve his game-calling skills
... September callup isn’t out of the question. Navarro should be ready to
serve as Posada’s backup at some point in 2005. " 2003
first-rounder third baseman Eric Duncan ranked #2 : "
... Duncan’s approach reminds the Yankees of Nick Johnson, though Duncan can
drive the ball to left field with more power. He has similarly solid plate
discipline and a short, simple stroke ... Some teams compared Duncan’s
lefthanded power potential to Jim Thome’s. As with Thome, Duncan’s defense
at third base may force him to move across the diamond to first. He can get
pull-conscious, which should be corrected as he adjusts to wood bats." John
Sickels, ESPN.com, on a another possible ace for the Jays -- Dustin McGowan
:
"
... McGowan's best pitch is his fastball, a 95-mph sinker ... pitch has good
movement, and can be quite overpowering. His secondary offerings include a
curveball, a slider, and a changeup. All three are solid most of the time,
occasionally excellent ... command is very good for a young power pitcher
... Statistically, high strikeout rates, and improving K/BB and BB/IP figures,
mark McGowan's track record. This is a clear sign of a rising young pitcher ...
he maintained a strong strikeout pace after his promotion to Double-A, while
actually dropping his walk rate slightly. Although he gave up more than a hit
per inning at New Haven, he still came out slightly better than the Eastern
League average in H/IP, while maintaining very strong ratings in the other
categories ... he's efficient for a young power pitcher, and the Jays
monitor his workload carefully ... In my 2004 book, I've given him a Grade A-,
rating him as the No. 7 pitching prospect in baseball, just ahead of the
more-heralded Adam Wainwright and Gavin Floyd. Objectively and subjectively,
McGowan has everything in his favor. If he stays healthy and maintains his
command, he could be a No. 1 starter. Expect to see him make the Show sometime
this year." Two
more Cuban players on the market. Maels Rodriguez and Yobal Dueñas
declared free agents by MLB : "
... Rodriguez, a 24-year-old righthander, and Dueñas, a 31-year-old
second baseman/outfielder, left Cuba by boat in October and have spent the past
two months establishing residency in the Central American nation of El Salvador
... Rodriguez holds the single-season Cuban
strikeout record, having fanned 263 in 178-1/3 innings three years ago and he is
the only pitcher in post-revolution Cuba history to throw a perfect game ... .Dueñas, a Cuban stolen base
champion who hit .321 in 14 seasons." (Baseball America)
For
those who like to dig around in the stats looking for hidden gems ... just a
reminder that the 2003 minor league stats, in a bunch of categories ... are
available through links at the bottom of the page.
08 January, 2004
Jim
Callis, Baseball America, with some added comments on the BOS farm :
"
... Abe Alvarez ... Would I project him to become a No. 3 starter? Not
yet. Can he become that? Yes, that's his ceiling. It will be very interesting to
see how Alvarez does in his first full season. The Red Sox absolutely love this
guy, and one official told me that his fastball may be the best in the system
despite its 85-88 mph velocity because he has nearly perfect command of it. They
think his fastball will play as a plus pitch and he'll have two other solid
average pitches (changeup, curveball) to go with it, and he'll move very
fast."
Hanley
Ramirez, JJ Hardy or Sergio Santos ?
"
... I'd take Hardy, then Santos, then Ramirez."
"
... Ramirez had a decent year for a 19-year-old in low Class A last year, but he
has received so much hype (and yes, we've fed that hype) that it seemed
disappointing. If he can hit .280 with 12-15 homers in the Florida State League
while improving his plate discipline and defensive consistency, I think that
would be a very good year."
Mets'
new second sacker, Jose Reyes, a no-show at a mini-camp -- visa
problem. Couldn't be one of those age things could it? Naw.
It's said :
"
... "There was a misunderstanding that he had a tourist visa that
could get him in and out (of the Dominican Republic)," Mets general manager
Jim Duquette said Wednesday. "But that expired at the end of
December." Duquette said that Reyes' work visa allows him back in the
country on Thursday, the final day of the mini-camp. The general manager said
that by the time Reyes got to camp, he would be one of the few players
remaining. "We started thinking about it, and decided not to bring him
in," Duquette said. Instead, the Mets will have instructors visit Reyes
during the next three weeks to evaluate his progress at second base. He is
switching from shortstop after the Mets signed free agent Kaz Matsui from Japan.
Duquette said Reyes, recovering from a severely strained left ankle that ended
his season on Aug. 31, will take part in the Mets' Caravan Week, which begins
Jan. 19. During that week, Reyes and Matsui could have the opportunity to work
out together for the first time. "We want to have our medical people
evaluate him more than the aspect of him working at second base," Duquette
said. Reyes likely will report to spring training with the pitchers and catchers
since he is coming off an injury, Duquette said." (Associated Press)
Michael
"Merv" Belmont, at BravesBeat, suggests ATL's trade of top pitching
prospect Adam Wainwright won't be a major blow at all to the Braves' farm
system. Belmont sees at least seven arms ready to step in :
"
... #1. RHP Bubba Nelson ... in the shadows of Wainwright's
progress these past three years. Make no doubt though, Nelson has just as much
chance (or more) to make it to the majors. He throws in the low-to-mid 90s and
could challenge for a rotation spot in Atlanta this year."
"
... #2. LHP Andy Pratt ... overlooked somewhat since
coming over from Texas, but 2003 was his defining moment. He could prove to be a
huge addition to Atlanta's bullpen this year."
"
... #3. LHP Macay McBride... would be the top pitching
prospect on many teams, but in the Braves organization he never received the
accolades of Wainwright. This is the chance for the hard throwing lefty to show
off his stuff."
"
... #4. LHP Daniel Meyer ... The steam has been gathering on
this guy and this offseason he has been getting some good press. He could be a
surprise addition to the Atlanta staff by 2005."
"
... #5. RHP Zach Miner ... Many have discounted Miner, but
he is as serious a prospect as the aforementioned four."
"
... #6. RHP Anthony Lerew ... The only reason he is
this far down is because he is in low A ball. This serious prospect could move
up to the top spot in the prospect lists by the end of 2004.
"
... #7. RHP Kyle Davies ... Another hot shot prospect that
is 3-4 years away."
Dayn
Perry, FOXSports, warps up his postiion-by-position prospect previews with his
picks as the best of the relievers. In contrast to most of the other
spots, many of these guys might actually provide some help this season. Ryan
Wagner CIN is kill of the hill :
"
... After pitching only ten innings in the minors, he landed a late-season setup
role in Cincinnati. Wagner has great velocity and nasty breaking stuff, good
enough to allow him to set the NCAA strikeout record during his junior year at
Houston. He pitched quite well in 21.2 innings at the major league level (25
strikeouts, 1.66 ERA), and he'll spend the entire 2004 season as the top
right-handed middle reliever out of the Reds' pen. One day, he'll likely be
closing games for the Reds. Despite some concerns surrounding his mechanics, he
has a very bright future."
Jesse
Crain MIN was right on Wagner's heels :
"
... Drafted in the second round in 2002, he's done nothing but dominate since
then. Check out these career numbers: 111.2 innings, 1.69 ERA, 143 strikeouts,
36 walks, zero homers (yes, zero homers). Wow. He pitched at three levels in
2003, which raises concerns that he might've been rushed, but relievers adapt
better to aggressive promotion tracks than most young players. In any event, his
stuff is outstanding, and he's succeeded at every level. He should be pitching
in Minnesota and pitching well by mid season."
Another
MIN prospect, Grant Balfour, was 4th with CLE's Kazuhito Tadano
next :
"
... a non-drafted free agent signed out of Japan in March of last year, first
made waves when he admitted to appearing in a gay porn film in his native
country. But unless you're Todd Jones or John Rocker, who really cares? In more
important news, the guy can pitch. He's only got one professional season under
his belt, but it was one heck of a professional season. At three separate
levels, he's pitched 98.2 innings, struck out 112, walked 22, posted a 1.55 ERA
and surrendered only four homers. Those numbers are hard to ignore. He'll open
the season in AAA-Buffalo, but he'll be in Cleveland before season's end. And
don't be surprised if he's closing games in 2005."
07 January, 2004
A
couple of veterans struggling to win MLB jobs were the stars in the Mexican
League playoffs while the young gun got an early shower ... Elmer Dessens
7.0 7 0 0 2 1 ... Francisco Campos 8.1 5 0 0 2 8 ... Oliver
Perez 4.0 4 4 4 6 6
Granted,
BOS appears to have one of the weakest farms sytems in the game, but #1 is
#1. And, Hanley Ramirez gets the prize in Baseball America's BOS
Top 10. Jim Callis handled the rating : "
... B.J. Upton is the only minor league shortstop whose raw tools compare to
Ramirez’. He’s the best athlete and fastest baserunner, and has the
strongest infield arm in the Red Sox system—and he’s most dangerous at the
plate. Ramirez has quick hands, a smooth stroke and lots of bat speed. He has
pitch recognition beyond his years, so he’s not vulnerable to breaking balls
and is able to hit deep in counts. If he puts it all together, he could be a
.300/.370/.500 shortstop in the majors." "
... The Red Sox have tried to temper the hype swirling around Ramirez because it
has come so quickly that he hasn’t handled it well. His May suspension wasn’t
an isolated incident. He was sent home from instructional league in 2002 after
he cursed at a trainer. Ramirez did a better job of keeping his composure and
acting more professionally when he came back from extended spring training
... He should be able to work counts and draw walks, but his impatience
often gets the best of him. He made 36 errors at Augusta, mostly on throws where
he had little chance to get the runner or where he just got careless ... If
Boston deals for Rodriguez or re-signs Garciaparra, Ramirez could become a very
valuable trading chip." Catcher
Kelly Stoppach was the runnerup to Ramirez. A
few more snippets from Matthew Pouliot's Top 10s at RotoWorld. Bobby
Crosby and Joe Blanton ranked 1-2 for OAK with OF Nick Swisher at #3 :
"
... Double-A gave him some major problems after he breezed through the
California League, but that's only a major concern if Swisher can't turn it
around over the first two months of 2004. A borderline defender in center,
Swisher figures to move to a corner now that Mark Kotsay is ahead of him in
Oakland. His bat won't be so intriguing in right or left, but he still figures
to become a solid .280/.370/.460 regular." At
#4, 2003 draftee Brad Sullivan :
"
... Like Cincinnati's Ryan Wagner, Sullivan was a first-round pick out of
the University of Houston in 2003. He's not going to be so quick to make an
impact as the Reds reliever, but he has just as much long-term upside as
Blanton. His low-90s fastball, exceptional slider and quality curveball could
get him to the majors before the end of 2005." On
the SEA farm, righthander Clint Nageotte gained the top spot :
"
... has a quality 91-95 mph fastball, but it's his vicious slider that has made
him a top prospect and allowed him to strike out 617 batters in 520 career
innings. He'll probably be a quality reliever as soon as the Mariners need him,
but his future is in the rotation. If he can turn his changeup into an above
average offering, he'll be a No. 2 starter. As is, he looks more like a future
No. 3." 2003
phenom Felix Hernandez gained at spot too, at #7 :
"
... A candidate to top this list next year, Hernandez went 7-2 with a 2.22 ERA,
52 H and 91/27 K/BB in 69 IP between SS Single-A Everett and low Single-A
Wisconsin last season. Throws in the mid-90s and has a great curveball." With
Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira in the majors, all of a sudden the TEX farm is
looking a bit thin. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is #1 :
"
... had his problems last year after undergoing offseason wrist surgery, but he
bounced back in the AFL and should be 100 percent in 2004. In a best-case
scenario, Gonzalez will have a John Olerud-type career. At worst, he'll be Doug
Mientkiewicz. Expect the Rangers to prepare him for a starting job in 2005 by
breaking him in during August or September."
Second
baseman turned CF Ramon Nivar might have a shot this season :
"
... showed promise at the new position, but since he still needs more
experience, he won't receive too much consideration for a job on Opening Day.
Nivar is primarily a singles hitter right now, but he is a very good one and he
should add more doubles. He'll probably be an average regular for the Rangers.
He could push Laynce Nix to a corner outfield spot in June or July."
One
further note on the Baseball Notebook list of the Top 100 hitting
prospects. At #10 is HOU first sacker 10. Justin Humphries.
Just noticed that Scott Rex, OnDeck, has Humphries rated #31, not on an overall
hitting list, but just on the HOU farm.
06 January, 2004
An
update of the Dominican winter stats ... these through to the end of December.
You would think the winter succes would help players such as Jimenez and Feliz
to at least solidify bench roles. Poor Victor Diaz. He continues to
impress but with the Mets' signing of Kazuo Matsui and the switch of Jose Reyes
to second base, there's no room at the inn. Not a bad ST warmup for Rafael
Soriano.
PLAYER
AVG OBP SLG AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS
#Jimenez, D'Angelo,2B .360 .485 .500 136 49
9 2 2 32 11 2 1
Feliz, Pedro,3B .342 .371
.534 161 55 8 1 7 8 22 3 0
Diaz, Victor,2B .320 .356
.492 128 41 11 1 3 6 34 6 0
#Perez, Neifi,SS .315 .368
.426 108 34 6 0 2 9 9
0 1
#Furcal, Rafael,2B .310 .417
.535 71 22 5 1 3 12 11 5 1
*Pie, Felix,OF .302
.389 .365 63 19 2 1 0 8 12
2 1
#Yan, Ruddy,2B .300
.300 .300 10 3 0 0 0
0 6 2 0
Febles, Carlos,2B .296 .382 .421
152 45 9 2 2 19 29 9 1
Nivar, Ramon,OF .293 .322
.366 82 24 4 1 0 2 9
4 1
*Pena, Carlos,1B .291 .374
.515 134 39 8 2 6 17 30 1 0
Berroa, Angel,SS .289 .361
.392 97 28 5 1 1 5 14
6 1
Terrero, Luis,OF .276 .344
.345 29 8 2 0 0 3 10
0 2
House, J.R.,C
.275 .373 .333 51 14 3 0 0 6
16 0 0
*Tracy, Chad,3B .258 .324
.462 93 24 2 1 5 8 20
1 0
Brown,
Dee,
.240 .397 .340 50 12 2 0 1 13 11
3 0
Marte, Andy,3B .240
.377 .360 50 12 3 0 1 11 16
1 0
Buck, John,C
.231 .316 .346 104 24 3 0 3 10 17
0 0
*Cano, Robinson,3B .225 .289 .342
111 25 5 1 2 9 10 1 0
#Closser, J.D.,1B .225 .337
.324 71 16 1 0 2 12 16 0 1
#Aybar, Erick,SS .222 .284
.259 81 18 3 0 0 7 12
7 0
#Guzman, Freddy,OF .204 .278 .314
137 28 4 4 1 14 28 14 3
#Ramirez, Hanley,SS .182 .182 .227
22 4 1 0 0 0 4 2 0
#Betemit, Wilson,3B .161 .235 .194
31 5 1 0 0 3 9 2 1
#Hill, Koyie,C .149
.194 .299 87 13 4 0 3 4 15
1 2
PITCHER
W L ERA G GS IP H BB SO
Soriano, Rafael 1 1 0.21
8 5 42.1 19 18 25
*Sadler, Carl 1 1
1.38 17 0 13.0 10 0 13
Munro, Pete 2
1 1.43 7 7 37.2 28 9 26
Yan, Esteban 5
0 2.22 11 7 65.0 55 9 35
Benoit, Joaquin 0 0 2.35
4 2 15.1 8 8 15
Valverde, Jose 4 0 2.35
19 0 23.0 20 11 22
Lopez, Aquilino 0 2 2.83
20 1 28.2 27 3 15
Yoshii, Masato 0 2
4.34 7 6 29.0 33 6 19
Aybar, Manny 2
2 5.52 12 6 31.0 35 9 28
Griffiths, Jeremy 1 2 6.94 7
7 23.1 24 17 10
A
big Canadian lefty grabs the top spot in the BAL Top 10 at Baseball
America. Adam Loewen appears anxious to begin his first full pro
season : "
... With two plus pitches and the possibility of two more, Loewen has legitimate
No. 1 starter potential. His fastball usually ranges from 90-95 mph, though it
was a bit lower at the end of the season as he tired. His curveball, a big
12-to-6 breaker, is his best pitch. He has a good feel for a changeup and has
dabbled with a slider as well. He’s athletic with smooth mechanics, effortless
arm action and good extension. Loewen would have been drafted early as a
power-hitting outfielder if he wasn’t such a promising pitcher. His low-key
demeanor on the mound earns comparisons to Tom Glavine. The Orioles praise his
makeup and maturity as much as his physical ability ... He’ll have to build up
his durability and get accustomed to pitching from February through October
... Though they played it safe with Loewen last year, the Orioles expect
him to move quickly to the big leagues. He’s motivated to get there, calling
the team in November to see if he could come to the minor league complex in
Sarasota, Fla., to work out ... I think you'll see him debut in the big leagues
in the second half of 2005."
Will
Lingo, who handled the BAL picks, selected John Maine as the runnerup. In
the chatroom, Lingo added a bit more on his #6 pick, lefty Matt RIley : "
... I think Riley definitely has a chance to win a rotation spot this spring.
Our own prospect maven Josh Boyd has been drooling for the past couple of weeks
over video of Riley pitching against the Blue Jays late last season. Assuming he
keeps pitching anywhere close to that, he's a pretty good bet." John
Sickels, ESPN.com, on TOR sleeper Jamie Vermilyea : "
... I think Vermilyea is one of the biggest sleepers around ... drafted in
the ninth round in '03 ... thrived as a pro, posting a 2.42 ERA and a
stunning 78/7 K/BB in his first 52 pro innings, with 43 hits allowed. That was
compiled at short-season Auburn and full-season Dunedin; his Dunedin numbers
were quite impressive, with a 25/2 K/BB in 22 innings. Vermilyea's fastball is
average, but his splitter and slider are sharp, and his command is exquisite.
The lack of a plus fastball keeps him out of the Bush/McGowan/Banks class, but I
think Vermilyea is just a notch below that. His ratios are exceptional. We need
to see what he can do in Double-A, but I am very optimistic about his
chances."
One of the more important moves in the off-season didn't involved a player, but
a pitching coach. Rick Peterson, given a great deal of credit for the
development of the young guns in OAK, takes on a challenge with the Mets.
Those with Aaron Heilman on their rosters might want to think about a
keeper slot for him. "
... "I looked at a lot of tape," said Peterson, a biomechanics guru
who hopes to apply his philosophies to Heilman's delivery. "I looked at his
delivery to see what his strengths and limitations are. I thought, What could we
do to make his delivery consistent? "What I liked as much as anything else
[is that] the inconsistency I've only heard about is exactly what everyone said
it was. That's exciting, because we found specific areas, and we can make
improvements." Heilman ... showed flashes of promise ... but his arm
position seemed to change from start to start, sometimes from pitch to pitch ...
" '"
... the fact that Duquette has thus far been unable to land a fifth starter has
improved Heilman's chances -- along with those of Jeremy Griffiths and Tyler
Yates -- of finding a spot on the big league club ... "I don't think
I have to re-impress anyone," said Heilman ... "I just have to go out
and do my job every day and get hitters out. I think I kind of got out of whack
last year and let it snowball. I didn't nip it in the bud, and soon enough it
just kind of snowballed. I was in a position that I almost had to start from
scratch. But I learned a lot about myself, about how to handle adversity and to
get through it ... There's a very good chance that Heilman will be one of the
pitchers Peterson takes to Alabama next month to do a biomechanical analysis of
their delivery. Peterson has worked with renowned surgeon James Andrews on
developing the system, one that he employed successfully while in Oakland ...
Heilman was the only player on the Major League roster who was in St. Lucie for
the opening day of mini-camp. The remaining players were top prospects,
including former first-round picks Scott Kazmir and Lastings Milledge." Matthew
Pouliot, RotoWorld, has posted his Top 10s for the AL West and ANA has some of
the best of the young guns including the Angels' #1 -- Jeff Mathis and
the intriguing Bobby Jenks (ranked #4 in the ANA sysem) : "
... With Joe Mauer set to become a regular for the Twins, Mathis is about to
take over as the top catching prospect in the minors. Like Mauer, Mathis is the
total package. He’s been an excellent hitter as one of the youngest players in
his leagues (he’s just turning 21 on March 31), and despite the occasional
miscue, he shows outstanding promise behind the plate." "
... One of the hardest throwers in baseball, Jenks has about as much chance of
developing into a true ace as anyone in the minors. It’s probably a better bet
that he’ll flame out and never make any real impact in the majors, but that
just means he’s a pitching prospect. Despite his control problems, Jenks was
dominant in Double-A after recovering from a stress fracture in his elbow. His
95-98 mph fastball and devastating curve make him very difficult to hit. Jenks
likely will have problems staying healthy and he might never improve his control
enough to make him a truly excellent starter, but with his upside, he has to be
viewed as a top prospect."
For
a little different look at the top young guns, David Luciani, Baseball Notebook,
has posted his views. If nothing else, it's worth a look for a few
surprising picks. Zack Greinke KC, generally viewed as the best of
the righty starters, rates #31 among the mound prospects. "
...
I do think Greinke’s going to become the type of pitcher who can pitch
200 innings and walk fewer than 40 batters but I also think his fastball is too
straight, the kind hitters can really drive and I could see him developing into
a good number two starter who allows too many home runs but keeps his ERA
consistently in the mid 4’s and gives his team a chance to win. Unlike many
others, I’m not projecting the next Cy Young." Luciani's
has Cole Hamels, Rich Harden and Rafael Soriano
as 1-2-3. Chad Gaudin TB was 4th, John Maine
BAL 5th. Greg Miller LA is #37, ErvinSantana ANA #67, and Clint
Nageotte SEA rates #99. Scott Kazmir appears to have
lacked the necessary innings to qualify. Among
the hitters, Prince Fielder MIL topped the list with a glowing
recommendation : "
... Projects as an eventual Triple Crown threat, he is going to end up hitting
for a much better average than many expect. He has the power to lead the league
in home runs and with the patience he has at his age, he will eventually become
selective enough to walk 125-135 times in a season ... One day, Prince
Fielder will be the best player in baseball." Fielder
was followed by David Wright NYN and Andy Marte ATL
as the best of the hitters. Alexis Rios TOR failed to make the cut
and Jeremy Reed CHA was down at #78.. Jeff Mathis
ANA finished at #37 well behind the Mets' Justin Huber (at #19) : "
... Huber ... I don’t have him hitting for the high average that others do but
I do see a .250s hitter with 35-40 home run power if he plays enough."
05 January, 2004
Winter
ball ...Playoffs -- Bobby Jenks ANA, no walks but, not a good effort 6.0
8 6 4 0 5 ... Alexis Rios TOR 2-5, triple & 2-5, 2 homers, 6
RBI ... Luis Matos BAL 3-5, homer ... Miguel Negron
TOR 2-3, SB ... Justin Wayne FLO 5.2 6 2 2 3 6 ... Erubiel Durazo
OAK homer ... Omar Infante DET 2-2, walks, error ... Juan Rivera
MON 3-5, double & 1-4, double ... Miguel Cabrera FLO 2-5 &
2-4 ... Victor Zambrano TB 5.0 4 1 0 3 4 ...
Future
catcher? There seems little doubt that Joe Mauer and Jeff Mathis ought to
be your prime targets. A bit lower on the scale there's Guillermo Quiroz,
perhaps Dioner Navarro. Maybe Lou Palmisso if he succeeds this
season. After than it gets pretty iffy. One of the possibilities to
consider is the BOS kid, Kelly Shoppach :
Back
in mid-season, Baseball America rated Shoppach as the fifth best catching
prospect :
"
... Shoppach initially attracted attention as a prospect for his defense, but he
has displayed steady improvement at the plate as a pro. He started 2003 on the
shelf after last season ended prematurely with shoulder surgery. He has bounced
back, throwing out runners at a better-than-average rate of 32 percent in the
Eastern League. "If he stays healthy, he could be ready next year, allowing
them to trade (Jason) Varitek," an AL executive said." (Baseball
America, July 2003) After
the Arizona Fall League, Josh Boyd, had Shoppach at #17 among AFL prospects:
"
... Shoppach reminded some scouts of Jason Varitek with his makeup and arm
strength, and his bat was impressive. Another scout called him a
"throwback-type receiver." "He can take the fastball the other
way with authority," the NL scout said. "He's not a very good breaking
ball hitter at this point." Some scouts see some flaws in his receiving
package, though. "He is a sloppy receiver," the AL scout said. "I
don't know if he was tired or hurt. He has a decent transfer and an OK arm. But
he sits too far back, he flinches at the ball and he struggles (catching)
velocity and anything under his kneecaps." SportsTicker
ranks him at #6 among the catchers : "
... After missing the first month recovering from off-season shoulder surgery,
Shoppach bounced back to have a strong second year in the pros ... hit
.282 with 30 doubles and a career-high 12 homers, finishing fifth best among
Class AA catchers with a .815 league-adjusted OPS. However, he did most of his
damage at hitter-friendly Hadlock Field in Portland, batting .335 with 20
doubles and seven homers. Defensively, the Baylor University product threw out
just under 31 percent of potential basestealers, notched .982 fielding
percentage and also reduced his past balls from 15 in 2002 to just three in
2003." FoxSports
had Shoppach rated as the third best prospect in a weak BOS farm system : "
... The Sox nabbed Shoppach in the second round of the 2001 draft out of Baylor.
In 2002, he put together a solid offensive season in the Florida State League.
This season, he's a bit better at AA-Portland. Scouts like his defense, and his
bat is solid. Shoppach has shown very good power to the gaps this season, so he
may have some untapped power potential in his bat. He's not a future star, but
he can be a productive regular at the highest level." RotoWorld
also ranked him #3 on the BOS farm : "
... His performance after returning solidified his status as a future major
league regular. Although he doesn't do any one thing especially well, Shoppach
could be similar in quality both offensively and defensively to the catcher he
might replace in Boston in 2005, Jason Varitek. Fantasy leaguers should look
forward to some .270, 15-homer seasons. He'll be ready for the majors after
playing a full season in Triple-A in 2004."
Shoppach
failed to make the cut for Mike Gullo's Top 100 at The Minors First.
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