Rookies 2006

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25-26 February, 2006 

    Wish me well ... two league drafts Saturday (along with two more continuing on line) ...

    Troop Movements ...   MIL - announced the retirement of NRI Brian Dallimore ...

    Daniel Paulling, AtHomePlate.com, with notes on some young guys to get for 2006 :

" ...  Mike Jacobs ...  Throughout the minor leagues, Jacobs put up a good batting average and got on base at reasonable clips ... added power to his game. In 100 AB’s at the Major League level in 2005, the catcher/first baseman hit eleven homers ... can expect 20 with a decent average over the entire year. From someone who has catcher eligibility, that’s a good thing, a very good thing."

" ... Josh Barfield ...  hit over .300 with 20 swipes and a little bit of power in Triple A Portland last year. The Padres might be ready to give him the everyday job, because he is their second baseman of the future ... expect a .260 average, 15 swipes, and 10 home runs."

" ... Andy Marte ... Indians will probably wait two or three weeks, enough time for Boone to fall flat on his face and Marte to have a tremendous start in Triple A Buffalo, before making the move to call Marte up. Once they do, he’ll become a cornerstone player on that team and figures to be great for the next twenty years or so."

" ... Craig Hansen ... Closer Keith Foulke should be all right after surgery on both of his knees. They key word in that previous sentence is “should.” We can expect Hansen to be the closer in future years, but he has a shot to finish off a few games if Foulke needs extended time to get his groove back. Don’t expect more than a few vulture saves."

" ... Paul Maholm ...  I don’t think too highly of him for this upcoming season, because of the tremendous jump he made (from A ball to Majors) and that he doesn’t have an offering that stands out. He relies on control, an average fastball, and a plus curve. There’s not much room for error, but he can go on extended streaks of quality, as last season can attest."

    John Sickels again takes a little different route in ranking the TEX farm.  Right hander Eric Hurley (B+) sits atop the chart ahead of VDD - Edison Volquez, John Danks, and Thomas Diamond (all B+).  Ian Kinser (B) was 5th ahead of catcher Taylor Teagarden (B).

    Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, on probable changes in the COL and LAA infields.

" ...  I think Troy Tulowitzki will be their shortstop before the season's over. At the very least, he'll be there Opening Day 2007. And he's a shortstop. Barmes is probably going to have to move ...  Quintanilla can play both positions and, of course, Gonzalez has already shown he can handle that job. I think they'll both get long looks. Quintanilla, my guess, will start the year in Colorado Springs unless there are injuries or they want to carry an extra middle infielder. If Barmes gets off to a slow start, he might have to become a utility guy himself. You can never have too much help up the middle and they've certainly stockpiled there. I do see a scenario for next year at the latest where Tulowitzki plays short and Barmes plays second."

" ... Howie Kendrick ... I think without a doubt he's ready with the bat. I also think that if you were to put him in the lineup Opening Day, he'd outproduce Adam Kennedy. That being said, he'll probably head down to Triple-A. If Kennedy struggles or gets hurt, Kendrick will be ready. I think he's the kind of guy who'll hit .300 wherever he is. He's got a .359 career average after hitting .367 in 2005 (followed by .380 in the AFL). I would love to see him get that job, then Kennedy would have to become a utility guy, though he's really limited to second base. Defensively, Kendrick is still a work in progress, but I think he'd be able to handle himself."

    Jim Callis, Baseball America, on Justin Upton vs Troy Tulowitzki.

" ... We ranked Upton No. 2 and Tulowitzki No. 25 on the Top 100, and I think readers perceive that we believe that's a major difference. It's really not. They're both elite prospects. I think Upton will a superstar and Tulowitzki will be a star, and I'd take Upton in a second if I had my choice. But in terms of actual numbers, there shouldn't be a huge difference. Coors Field will help narrow the gap for Tulowitzki, too. In a typical major league park, when they're in their primes, I can see Upton hitting .300 with 30-35 homers annually, compared to .280 with 20-25 homers for Tulowitzki. Upton probably will draw a few more walks and he's much more of a basestealing threat than Tulowitzki, who's a better defender. He's a lock to stay at shortstop, while Upton stands a good chance of becoming a center fielder."

    Sleeper alert from Jim Callis :

" ... Q : What player in the top 100 has the best chance to shoot up the list next year? Outside the top 100? A: Jim Callis: To steal an answer from my ESPN.com chat, I think Carlos Gonzales (No. 32) could jump right up to the very top of the list after 2006. From off the list, watch Devil Rays righthander Wade Davis."

    Cesar Carrillo SD a long shot for a MLB job to start the season.

" ...  He's so loose [with] his arm," Bochy said. "He has such great command too. He's got everything you're looking for -- velocity, movement and a nice, loose arm. And he's confident. "It's like anything -- you draw on your experience. He's always pitched the last two years at Miami with so much attention, with scouts, [speed] guns. I'm sure that's helped him here." Bochy called it a "long shot" for Carrillo to make the staff this season, but added, "But don't rule out anything. It's best for him to get a little more time in the Minor Leagues, but you never know."  (MLB.com)

    Matt Tuiasosopo fitting in nicely in SEA :

" ...   He’s having decidedly more fun this spring than he did last. “My first spring training, I didn’t say a word unless someone spoke to me – and even then, I didn’t say much,” he said. “This spring, I’m much more relaxed. I know everybody and I’m having a lot more fun.” The past two years have been all he’d hoped when he made the toughest decision of his young life. When Seattle drafted him in June 2004, Tuiasosopo was torn between pursuing baseball or accepting one of many football scholarships ...  One of the lessons of 2005 was on endurance. Then 18, he’d never played more than 49 games in a season, and last year in Wisconsin, he played 107 games – and then three postseason series. “I got a little exhausted a few times last year. I’d never played that long a season, but I sucked it up and got through those times,” he said ...   projects as a hitter with power and speed, a defensive player with a marvelous arm and quick hands. And he’s nowhere near, the Mariners say, his potential. “He’s an athlete, and he probably could have played any sport he wanted and been successful,” said Benny Looper, the team vice president of player development. “We’re going to let him develop at his own pace, but you can see his skills just watching him play.”  (Tacoma News Tribune)

24 February, 2006 

    Troop Movements ...  one of the best signings  " ... Vin Scully agreed to return for his 58th and 59th seasons as a broadcaster with the Dodgers, accepting a two-year contract extension through 2008." (AP)

    It's Delmon, Justin, Brandon 1-2-3 in Baseball America's Top 100. 

" ...  3. BRANDON WOOD ...  "He's still going to get better. He looks like the next Cal Ripken to me." --San Jose manager Lenn Sakata."

" ... 9. LASTINGS MILLEDGE  ...  "He's going to be an all-star caliber player. You hit home runs with a quick bat, which he's got, and down the road he could steal 35 to 40 bases." --anonymous scout ETA: 2006."

" ... 32. CARLOS GONZALES  ...  "This guy looks like Carlos Beltran when Beltran is going good. He doesn't run as well but he's a better hitter. And he's got that great arm." --anonymous scout ETA: 2008."

" ... 50. ANDREW McCUTCHEN ...   "Andrew has the same outstanding speed and ability to cover a lot of ground in center field like Grissom. And like Marquis, he has good power. He also has great makeup and comes from a very good family background, like Marquis did." --Pirates scouting director Ed Creech ETA: 2008."

Among shortstops, it was Justin Upton, Wood and Stephen Drew.  Alex Gordon, Andy Marte, Ryan Zimmerman, the top dogs among third baseman went 13-14-15.  The 2005 wonderkind, Ian Stewart ranked No. 16.

Jim Callis provided a bit of detail in his stint in the BA chatroom :

"Q:  You've been quoted as suggesting recently that Brandon Wood would spend one or two months in the minors before getting the call ...  and being installed as a regular ...  isn't this a bit of leap of faith for a 21-year old who has had all of 19 ABs above Single-A?

A:  It is a leap of faith, but that's how much I believe in Brandon Wood. I think he'll start the year by tearing up Double-A and/or Triple-A and force his way into the Angels lineup."

On Justin Upton  " ...   Best case, he's pushing for the big leagues by the end of the year and gets there toward the beginning of 2007. I really think he's going to be the next Ken Griffey Jr. (the uninjured star version)."

On the best of the FLO acquisitions  " ... Anibal Sanchez has the most upside to me in that group. Fastball and changeup are plus to well above-average at times, and he has a solid breaking ball. With Petit, it's tough to reconcile the fact that his stuff is ordinary and his numbers have been extraordinary. He didn't have much success against lefties last year, and he gives up a ton of fly balls. There are pitchers who succeed with deception in the majors, but it's easier to thrive with good stuff."

On Rich Hill  " ...  Let's see him do it one more time. His decent command came out of nowhere, and he got rocked in the majors. He just missed the cut. "

Jon Lester   " ... Let's see . . . 21-year-old lefty, 6-4, 210, athletic, fastball keeps climbing and now sits at 92-93, very good slider, showing some mastery of the changeup, manhandled Double-A hitters last year. I'll take that, and so would 30 big league clubs. Not too many guys in the minors with that package."

    Not ignored after all.  Baseball Prospectus says Jon Lester should have been mentioned on its Top 50 release :

" ... The final rankings, which were sent off to the publisher last month and will be found in Baseball Prospectus 2006 when it begins shipping in a few days, does in fact have Jon Lester listed as an Honorable Mention. A preliminary list, which had substituted Lester with Anibal Sanchez was sent to the editorial staff of our Web site, and that list was published here this past Monday. We did not catch the error at first." ... We screwed up."

    Dayn Perry, FOXSports, with notes on some possible "impact" rookies :

" ...   Kenji Johjima ...   a skilled defender behind the plate, and he'll hit for average and gap power in Seattle. Safeco's a tough environment for right-handed batters, so his unadjusted numbers may not drop many jaws. Still, he's a good bet to be comfortably above average with the bat and with the glove ."

" ...  Brian Anderson ...  has the rare opportunity to step into a starting job for the defending champs. Anderson's tools are solid across the board, but nothing stands out. He's a capable defender in center, and at the plate he boasts a reasonable ability to hit for average and some gap-power chops. He's not a threat to steal, but otherwise Anderson is a good base runner. He'll never be a perennial All-Star, but he'll provide an above-average bat for the position as long as he's in center.

    CIN - far from an outstanding system but with at least a couple of possible gems.  John Sickels goes with Homer Bailey (B+), Travis Wood (B) and Jay Bruce (B) 1-2-3. 

    So far, so good for Jason Kubel MIN :

" ...   Kubel has spent almost three weeks working out in Fort Myers and said he has not experienced any pain or swelling in his surgically reconstructed left knee. Kubel, who missed last season, has not slid during his recovery, but that test should come soon after Saturday's first full-squad workout. "I haven't had the opportunity to slide, but that's not going to be a problem," said Kubel, who has a chance to win a starting job. "I can pretty much do what everyone else is doing." Kubel has been icing his knee after every workout as a precaution."  (St. Paul Pioneer Press)

    Nick Adenhart LAA well on the road to recovery :

" ...  Before the surgery, Adenhart threw his fastball routinely in the low-90s and was clocked as high as 95 mph ...  Now he works in the high 80s to low 90s and can still hit 94-95 mph while mixing a curveball and changeup. Though he wouldn't recommend it, Adenhart feels the injury and the resulting surgery made him a better pitcher. "Getting hurt allowed me to restructure my mechanics. I really didn't have any concept of pitching. I threw too much across my body," said Adenhart, adding that he always had a rubber arm. "I had a year to sit back and watch." ...   "The pro game is different," said Adenhart, who has a deceptively smooth delivery. "The time has showed me what to do to be successful." ...   He is slated to move up to Class A, either Cedar Rapids or Rancho Cucamonga."  (MLB.com)

    Fathers knows best?  Jesse says Josh Barfield is the real deal.

" ...  You're going to see a lot of web gems with Josh and Greene," Jesse Barfield said by phone from Houston. "People don't know how athletic the kid is. I'm still scratching my head over plays he made last year [at Triple-A Portland]. "Greene and Josh remind me of [Alan] Trammell and [Lou] Whitaker in Detroit." ...   "I have no doubts about Josh. He's the real deal. Preparation is the key. There are certain things he does that you're not going to see every player do. The elite player, yes. He goes about it in a very professional way. He's not cocky, but he's confident. "Josh is a student of the game -- always has been. I look at [photos] of him as a kid watching us play, and he's intently taking it all in. He's got the instincts for the game." ...  Barfield hit .308 with 15 homers and 20 steals at Portland last season. His defense -- only 13 errors in 642 chances for a .980 fielding average -- improved by spectacular leaps and bounds. "  (MLB.com)

    Philip Hughes NYA making quite a first impression :

" ... He throws hard, and he's just a baby -- 19 years old," said manager Joe Torre. "The thing that's unusual for a kid as young as he is, his curveball is really impressive. His stuff is very real." "That kid is going to be good; he reminds me of Rocket," Giambi said, making a comparison between Hughes and Roger Clemens. "He's young, but that fastball, it's late. I don't care what the radar gun says, it seems like it's on top of you. He's got good stuff." ...  Posada ...  another proclamation about the youngster that raised some eyebrows. "He has the best arm in camp, no doubt about it. Better than all these guys," said Posada, pointing to a row of lockers which included Randy Johnson and Mariano Rivera. "I don't care how old he is. He's unbelievable. It's effortless the way the ball comes out of his hand at 95-96. He's that impressive. He's the best prospect we've got. It's fun to see."  (MLB.com)

23 February, 2006 

    A few of the relatively under-hyped prospects make the cut as Baseball America kicks off its Top 100 with the bottom 50.  A few surprises - Nippert, for example, over Hamels, Petit, Niemann, et al.

" ... 55. SCOTT ELBERT ...  "He made quick bats look like palm trees through peanut butter." --Greenville manager Chad Epperson."

" ... 63. JONATHAN BROXTON ...  "He blows it by people, has deception in his delivery, a power breaking ball and a feel for it. Broxton looked like a bigger Bartolo Colon out there, with a better body." --anonymous scout."

" ... 67. DUSTIN NIPPERT  ...  "He just kept pounding his fastball, and being a big guy, it came in at a downhill plane. This guy is a power pitcher, a big guy with a good future." --Jacksonville manager John Shoemaker."

" ... 79. JASON HAMMEL ...  "He went through his ups and downs when he got here, but his stuff plays bigger than it is sometimes. And a 90-mph fastball with that hard curve is pretty big already." --Durham manager Bill Evers."

    A future Cy Young candidate and some help for the O's among the picks in Dayn Perry's latest Top 100 installment at FOXSports.

" ...  21. Matt Cain ...  makes hay with a tremendous fastball-curveball combo, and last season he whiffed 176 batters in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. After being called up the San Francisco, Cain notched a 2.33 ERA in 46 innings despite being one of the youngest players in the major leagues last season. Cain's fly-ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome, but SBC Park is quite forgiving when it comes to allowing home runs. If Cain's homer rate stays in check, he could contend for a Cy Young in a few years."

" ... 24. Nick Markakis...  In 2005—his first full season as a pro—Markakis split time between High-A Frederick and AA-Bowie, and he put up a batting line of .300 AVG/.379 OBP/.480 at Frederick and a line of .339 AVG/.420 OBP/.573 SLG at Bowie. Markakis also has excellent bat control and a willingness to use the whole field. With the glove, he can get by in center, but he's best deployed in right, where he'll be a plus defender."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, again takes a little different turn in his CLE system chart.  Newcomer Andy Marte (Grade "A") takes over the No. 1 position followed by lefty starter Jeremy Sowers (B+) and Fernando Cabrera (B+).  Michael Aubrey is slotted at No. 16,  righty starter Adam Miller, No. 9.

" ...  Miller at Grade B- ...  Baseball America still rates him as the top pitching prospect in the system and one of the best in the game. This is true if he is healthy. I had horrible reports about him last summer, and while he did OK in the Arizona Fall League, I want additional proof that he is fully recovered from his elbow trouble. We will keep close track of Miller as the season progresses"

    Joel Zumaya DET, starter or closer?

" ...  Many of his characteristics fit a closer, though he hasn't made a relief appearance since 2002. His pitching motion is explosive, some call it violent, propelling fastballs toward the plate at a high frequency as well as velocity. He has a history of back problems that he shook off last year to avoid the DL. His mentality is as aggressive as any reliever, both on and off the mound. He even felt the need to move his legs while sitting down for an interview. "I'm very aggressive," Zumaya said. "If I'm not doing anything, I get real draggy. It's just not my life. I've got to move. I've got to keep on doing anything. I'm very intense. I hate sitting around." Yet amidst those reliever tendencies lies a slew of traits that suggest he could just as easily fit into a big league rotation. He was durable enough to top 150 innings last season for the first time in his career. And hidden within all those starts is an ability to adjust and learn quickly ...  Pitching coach Chuck Hernandez believes it's way too early to make a judgment. "Right now, I just want him to get in shape," he said. "I don't want him to think as much, just throw. We'll figure out the rest."  (MLB.com)

    Rangers Joaquin Arias generating lots of positive reviews :

" ...  There is much to talk about when it comes to a classic, slick-fielding shortstop who has impressed the Rangers with well above-average quick hands and feet and a strong throwing arm. "I wouldn't put any limits on him," manager Buck Showalter said. "He can be a difference maker defensively, one of those guys who turns hits into outs." Pitchers like that ...  Arias also has significant offensive potential. Playing at Frisco last season, he batted .315 with 23 doubles, eight triples and five home runs in 499 at-bats. He has hit .300 or better in three of four professional seasons. Speed is an essential part of that. "There was one game last year where he hit a ball that looked like a single and turned it into a triple," said pitcher John Danks, another Frisco teammate. "I had family at the game and they were still talking about it two days later." Arias also stole 20 bases last year, increasing the possibility he could eventually be a force at the top of a lineup in an organization that has been lacking speed and looking for a prototype leadoff hitter."    (MLB.com)

    Mike Hindman moves on to review the rookie catching corps of the Rangers and finds Taylor Teagarden as the top backstop in spite of last season's arm surgery :

" ...  Teagarden finished his professional debut season with a line of .281 / .426 / .635, hitting seven homers and driving in sixteen runs ...  While Teagarden was among the league leaders in whiffs per at-bat (32 / 96), he balanced that negative by frequently drawing bases on balls. His 23 freebies were just three fewer than Junior Mayberry took all year, and Mayberry had nearly three times as many at-bats. The right-handed Teagarden didn’t hit much against lefties in limited opportunities (.158 in 19 at-bats), but he actually seemed to be even more selective against them (.467 OBP). A technically sound catcher with great footwork, a plus arm and quick release, he’s considered by most to be ready for the big leagues defensively right now ...  Rangers feel that Teagarden may be ready to hit at the beginning of the season and could be back behind the plate late this summer ...  Missing time behind the plate won’t hurt him as his defensive game is already big league quality. If he continues to hit like he did last summer, he could be ready for prime time at some point in 2007."

22 February, 2006

    Troop Movements ...  TEX - signed Erubiel Durazo to a minor league contract ...  SEA - signed Roberto Petagine to a minor league contract ...

    David Regan pens an explanatory piece on the Baseball Prospectus Top 50.  Well worth a read (this one appears to be a freebie) as David goes through various measures of prospect value, including where they play and where they played "

" ...  Take the case of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BP’s #23 prospect). “Salty” put up a .314/.394/.519 line with a .205 ISO in High A while playing half his games in a tough pitchers’ park. A switch-hitting catcher with his offensive skill set is extremely rare, but due to the presence of Brian McCann and with questions surrounding his defense, a position change to the opposite end of the spectrum is a possibility. If he had the defense to match his bat and was guaranteed to remain behind the plate, he’d probably be a top-five prospect."

" ...  Brandon Wood hitting 43 home runs in the hitter-friendly California League ballparks is impressive, but not quite as impressive as if he had performed similarly in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Wood’s PECOTA card reflects this sentiment, as his raw numbers of .321/.383/.672 translate to a more reasonable and conservative .257/.309/.506. An 815 OPS is still solid for a SS, but those thinking that Wood can be a perennial 50-HR guy better think twice."

    Ryan Zimmerman clearly the class of the WAS farm in John Sickels' Nats prospect report (Zimmerman, Kory Casto, Bill Bray 1-2-3).

" ... Zimmerman is a stud, of course, but after him there are no sure bets. Casto can hit but will need to find another position with Zim ahead of him. Bray should be a decent bullpen guy but not an impact player ...  I'm raising Collin Balester from Grade C to Grade C+, due to very positive scouting reports as well as positive intuition."

    Casto to make a shift to second base :

" ... Bowden [General Manager Jim Bowden] said top shortstop prospect Ian Desmond is slated to begin this season at Class AA Harrisburg, and his double-play partner is expected to be Kory Casto, whom the Nationals will move from third base to second base because the presence of 21-year-old third baseman Ryan Zimmerman blocks his path to the majors. Desmond, 20, is ranked fourth on Baseball America's list of the top 10 prospects in the Nationals organization, while Casto, 24, is ranked sixth. They spent last season in Class A. "We'll have them play together, so they can come up together" through the farm system, Bowden said."  (Washington Post)

    Also at MinorLeagueBall, John Sickels compares a terrific trio of SPs - Justin Verlander, Matt Cain and Chad Billingsley :

" ... Verlander has the best fastball in terms of peak velocity, and all three can hit the mid-90s. All three also have above-average breaking balls. All three also need to improve their changeups. I think Verlander has a slight advantage due to better peak velocity. Physically, Verlander is also closest to the ideal physical specimen ... Verlander had the best numbers in '05, although both Cain and Billingsley pitched quite well, especially considering age/competition factors. Cain did better than Verlander in their major league exposures. All three have good command for a power pitcher, with Verlander possibly having a slight edge ...  Cain has the highest injury risk due to his 2003 elbow trouble and his weaker command. All three are at their physical peaks now and aren't likely to improve much further from where they currently are in terms of velocity ... Overall, I give Verlander a slight edge. Cain ranks a notch ahead of Billingsley because he has Triple-A and major league experience as opposed to "just" Double-A success."

    Oh no, not already :

" ...  Minor-league prospect Michael Aubrey, whose three-year professional career has been riddled with injuries, has been held out of early workouts with lower back issues. "He's being treated for a lower back disc-related issue," trainer Lonnie Soloff said. "I'm hoping he can go later in he week." Aubrey, a first-round pick - 11th overall - in 2003, was limited to 28 games last season at Class AA Akron. He did not play after June 10. In two previous seasons, hamstring and quad injuries cut into his playing time."  (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

    Sleeper possibility in the ATL pen :

" ...   hard-throwing rookie Anthony Lerew showed something. Now he wants to keep showing it. "Lerew was the star of the day," Cox [Manager Bobby Cox] said after seeing the right-hander dominate hitters in batting practice. "Hopefully he can have those kind of days [consecutively\], because he was as right on as you can possibly get." Lerew, 23, decided before spring training that he wanted to compete for the closer job ...  A starter in the minors, Lerew hadn't made a relief appearance since rookie ball in 2001 until September, when he was called up by the Braves and pitched in seven games. His 5.93 ERA wasn't impressive, but there were flashes of promise. He has a 93-to-97 mph fastball and sharp slider, and he's developing a split-finger pitch that could be special."  (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

    Twins' phenom could jeopardize his chances of opening the season on the MLB roster by suiting up in the WBC:

" ...  Francisco Liriano could have a roster spot in the World Baseball Classic. But that might cost the hotshot pitching prospect a chance to make the Twins' roster for Opening Day. Liriano said Monday that he was told he had been added to the provisional roster for his native Dominican Republic, and he expects to play next month in the inaugural WBC ...Liriano is competing in spring training with Scott Baker for the fifth spot in the Twins' rotation. Minnesota entered its first official workout Monday viewing the rookies as fairly even. Baker showed more consistency during the brief time he and Liriano were with the Twins last season. Liriano, 22, could miss 18 days of training camp if the Dominican Republic, one of the favorites to contend for the title, advances to the March 20 championship game. The left-hander's absence from the Twins could set him back in the evaluation process, but by no means will the Twins hold anything against Liriano for playing in the WBC. "I'm not going to punish a guy just because he's going to the world games," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "It's quite an honor. But it does make it a little bit more difficult. I'm not going to evaluate him while he's in the world games. I'll be evaluating my guys here."   (St. Paul Pioneer Press)

    Former top WAS prospect hoping surgery will lead to a career revival :

" ...  Mike Hinckley ... after going 1-6 in his final 12 appearances, Hinckley and the Nationals decided it was time to have his shoulder fixed once and for all. He went to see Reds team physician Dr. Timothy Kremchek, who performed an arthroscopic procedure to release the posterior capsule in Hinckley's shoulder ... Hinckley began tossing a ball in November and started throwing in earnest in January. He's eager to put last season behind him, though it is yet to be determined where he will begin 2006. If he's truly healthy, Double-A Harrisburg, where he was 5-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 16 starts in 2004, is a likely starting point. "Anyone can have ups and downs through any season, but last year was my only down year," Hinckley said. "That's going to happen. I've had more dream seasons than ones when I've been on that rollercoaster. They (the Nationals) had a lot of expectations of me last year, but I had a lot of expectations, too. Things just didn't fall into place. "But my arm feels much better now. There are times when I still want to baby it, but people have said that the doctor wouldn't have sealed it up if he hadn't taken care of everything."   (MiLB.com)

    Andrew McCutchen PIT, high expectations :

" ...  There are two reasons Andrew McCutchen will be in this camp," director of player development Brian Graham said. "One is that it's going to help him down the road. The other is that he deserves it based on his performance last season." McCutchen, a right-handed-hitting center fielder, made an immediate impact after being drafted 11th overall ...  named top prospect in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, batting .297 with 9 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 30 RBIs in 45 games for Bradenton. He also posted a sterling .411 on-base percentage ...  Promoted late in the season to Williamsport of the New York-Penn League, he fared even better by batting .346 with a .443 on-base percentage in 13 games ... That eye has helped McCutchen get the most out of what scouts describe as an unusually potent swing for someone 5 feet 11, 170 pounds ... Some in the organization liken him to Marquis Grissom or Ron Gant. "You're looking at someone who has that leadoff ability but also could get you home runs," Graham said ...  the Pirates plan to move him from leadoff, where he spent most of last season, to No. 3 in the order at Hickory."   (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

    Don't expect Luke Hochevar in Dodger blue any time soon :

" ...   general manager Ned Colletti ...  said that since being named GM on Nov. 15, he hasn't had a single conversation with Los Angeles-based agent Scott Boras about Hochevar ... .The Dodgers will maintain exclusive rights to Hochevar until just before this year's draft. Hochevar, who is ineligible for his senior season at the University of Tennessee ...  can re-enter the draft in June. Colletti said the money the Dodgers potentially stand to save by not signing Hochevar will be rolled into this year's draft budget."   (LA Daily News) 

21 February, 2006 

    Just a reminder -  Rooks Top 10s   Rooks Top 100s   Rooks Position   Rooks All-Stars   Rooks League

    Troop Movements ...  TOR - Brian Tallet cleared waivers,rejoins the Jays as a NRI ...

    This one should generate some conversation - the Baseball Prospectus Top 50 prospect list.  Rany Jazayerli and Dayn Perry offer some interesting rankings.  Justin Upton doesn't show up until No. 41, Ryan Zimmerman bests Alex Gordon handily, Dustin Pedroia barely misses the Top 10, 2005 poster boys Ian Stewart and Daric Barton finish a fair bit down the chart, Jeremy Sowers tops Chad Billingsley. Check it out.

1. Delmon Young         6. Brandon Wood
2. Jeremy Hermida       7. Andy Marte
3. Ryan Zimmerman       8. Chris Young
4. Francisco Liriano    9. Prince Fielder
5. Howie Kendrick      10. Alex Gordon

    At RotoAmerica, David Regan goes with Andy Marte and Adam Miller 1-2 on the CLE prospect chart with lots more beyond that pair :

" ... #3 Jeremy Sowers ...  had much more success than I would have expected out of him this year. For a guy 6’1”, 170 who doesn’t throw hard, a 2.37 ERA and an 8.4 K/9 rate are impressive indeed. Let the inevitable comparisons to Tom Glavine begin. Sowers throws a fastball in the low 90s, a slider, a curve that’s his best pitch, and an above-average change. He does a great job hitting the corners with his secondary stuff before getting them out with his fastball. He’s a master at mixing things up and getting in the mind of the batter ...  Should get a shot at a rotation spot this spring, but more likely will return to AAA and be the first injury call-up. Upside of a #3 starter."

" ...  #4 Stephen Head  ...  due to the health (or lack thereof) of Michael Aubrey, Head has a “head start” (sorry) in the quest to find the Indians’ 1B of the future. Very athletic and starred as a two-way player at the University of Mississippi ...  Indians have a lot of confidence in his bat and while he still needs to get stronger, I would expect 25 HRs are reachable for Head as a pro ... .Defense is solid."

" ... #8 Franklin Gutierrez  ...  has been a disappointment  ... Perhaps injuries have played a role ...  When healthy, Gutierrez exhibits true five-tool potential, showing plus power using his quick bat, good speed on the bases, and very good defense. His biggest issue is his lack of ability to control the strikezone, something that hasn’t improved in the last couple years and may never improve. He turns 23 in February, so all is certainly not lost. He’ll first have to prove himself in AAA before being considered for a big league job."

    Again, John Sickels provides a little twist in his ranking of the Arizona farm.  Carlos Quentin (A) gets the No. 1 slot ahead of Stephen Drew (A-) and Chris Young (A-).  Justin Upton was 4th.

" ...   Drew has more athleticism and Jackson is more polished in some ways as a hitter, but Quentin has the best combination (in my opinion) of athleticism, skills, enthusiasm, and work ethic ... Drew has a higher ceiling, I admit, but I think it more likely that Quentin will reach his. I love Chris Young and I can't believe the White Sox traded him. Justin Upton, once he plays, will likely be at the top of this list next year. I just didn't want to rank him ahead of the other guys without actually having some game data to go on."

    At InsideTheDugout William Calvin rates the kids in the WAS system.  Not many surprises here.

" ...  1 - Ryan Zimmerman ...  the Nat’s 1st round pick in the 2005 draft and he’s already the leading candidate to start at 3rd in 2006. With a super defensive glove and spectacular plate presence, Zimmerman should be a perennial all star in no time. After he tore up A and AA, Ryan was given the call in late 2005, and he proceeded to hit well above .390 in only 59 AB’s. At only 21 years of age, Zimmerman is already a near-Gold Glover, and projects to hit 20+ homeruns and hit at right around a .300 clip. Expect to see big things from this kid in the majors."

" ... 2 - Collin Balester ...  At 6’5” his 94 MPH fastball is nearly impossible for batters to connect on, holding them to a .222 batting average in 2005. At the age of 19, Collin’s curveball is more developed then the Nat’s had hoped this early on in his career, but he still needs some seasoning if he plans on making it a plus pitch. The Nationals gave Balester the green light to throw his changeup more often in 2005 in an attempt to give him yet another major league pitch to his arsenal. Expect to see Collin start the 2006 season in A with a possibility of a jump to AA in the very near future. Colin projects to be the Nationals #2 SP in early 2008."

20 February, 2006 

    Troop Movements ...  CIN - released NRI Josh Hancock ... BAL - acquired NRI Andy Tracy from CLE for PTBNL ... 

    Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld, with an abundance of riches as he ranks the teams in the AL West.   A few of the less publicized prospects :

" ... 6. Erick Aybar  ...  Another Angels prospect who could be ready for regular duty in 2007, Aybar is a flashy defender with a fair amount of offensive potential. He doesn’t have a lot of power, though he has managed 23 homers over the last two years ... While he’ll likely be able to keep hitting for average in the majors, his lack of on-base skills could keep him in the bottom third of the order. On defense, Aybar could be a Gold Glover someday if the AL shortstop field remains weak ...  could be the Angels’ best trade bait in a midseason deal, though it’s at least as likely that Cabrera will end up being moved instead."

" ...  7. Nick Adenhart  ...  made it back last July and wasted no time in the making the team look very smart. Adenhart works in the low-90s and could add velocity. His curveball is a potential out pitch, and both his slider and changeup could turn into major league offerings in time."

" ... 2. Javier Herrera ...  a tools player with 30-homer potential and the speed to play center field. He’s also hardly completely clueless at the plate. Though he will chase pitches low and away, he doesn’t go outside the strike zone with much greater frequency than the typical 20-year-old. Herrera could spend two more years in the minors and then replace Mark Kotsay is Oakland in 2008."

" ... 3. Jeff Clement  ...  one of the best power hitters in the draft. He could hit 30 homers per year even while being rested once a week. On defense, he’s a solid catcher despite below average arm strength ...  will probably be ready in the second half of 2007 or in 2008. It’s possible that Johjima will be traded then to make room for him."

" ... 7. Asdrubal Cabrera  ...  another Mariners shortstop prospect likely to change positions, though he’s very capable of remaining in the middle infield. He’s been tried at second base as well as shortstop, and his arm plays better when he doesn’t have to make the longer throws. He has the range for either position. On offense, Cabrera is a switch-hitter with doubles power. He’s unlikely to get a lot stronger than he is now, but he could develop into a regular. If he stalls out offensively, a career as a utilityman is likely."

" ... 6. Josh Rupe  ...  Better numbers would be nice, but Rupe is a prospect either way. Movement is the key. Rupe has plenty of sinking action on his low-90s fastball, and he can also get grounders with his cutter. His curveball is a fantastic No. 2 pitch when it’s on, though he needs to become more consistent about it. His slider doesn’t quite measure up, but too often he has to rely on it more than his erratic curveball. Rupe is in the mix for a rotation spot this spring, though Juan Dominguez is favored to beat him. Some additional Triple-A time would be for the best anyway. It might be that he’ll be broken in as a reliever in June or July."

" ... 10. Taylor Teagarden  ... might have been a first-round pick in 2005 if not for the Scott Boras factor. The Rangers got him 99th overall and he was spectacular in limited action. Unfortunately, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in November ...  is well above average defensively. He might have been a little over his head offensively at Spokane last season, but he’ll continue to hit homers and draw walks."

    John Sickels takes a slightly different course with his Dodgers' prospect ranking by selecting Chad Billingsley (Grade A-) over Joel Guzman (A-) for the top spot.  Andy LaRoche (B+) is No. 3 ahead of reliever Jonathan Broxton (B+) and catcher Russell Martin (B+).

" ...  I gave Matt Kemp a C+ in the book, due to concerns about his strike zone judgment, but I think I will raise that to B- due to his excellent overall potential and athleticism."

" ...  James Loney may be controversial at C+, but the fact is that he hasn't lived up to expectations. A first baseman with a career SLG of .411 has a lot of work to do."

    Dayn Perry, FOXSports, on Delmon or Brandon as the best prospect in baseball :

" ...  The 2006 season will be a critical one for both players. Young will need to prove his late-season struggles in the International League were aberrant, and Wood will need to prove that his outlying (and astounding) performance in 2005 wasn't a fluke. Wood will have his mettle tested in the high minors, while Young could be at the highest level to stay by mid-season. The key, right now, is that Young has succeeded against more advanced competition — despite being half a year younger than Wood. In the here and now, those factors outweigh Wood's advantage in terms of raw 2005 numbers and his ability to man a more demanding position. So Delmon Young is the best position prospect in all of baseball. Of course, that's subject to change depending on what unfolds in 2006."

    And, a variation of the BOS chart with Craig Hansen at No. 1 (A-) ahead of a pair of B+ guys, Jon Lester and Jon Papelbon.  Dustin Pedroia is 4th.

     A college star, brother of a major leaguer, just back from a course on proper conduct, Jered Weaver shows his immaturity.

" ...   Angels on Saturday began investigating a Feb. 9 incident involving top pitching prospect Jered Weaver, who was cited for public intoxication in Long Beach and spent 12 hours in the city's jail. Weaver ...  was not arrested ...  According to the police report, Weaver, 23, had emerged from a Long Beach establishment with several friends when he was cited and taken into custody ... "There wasn't anything that happened. I got picked on at the wrong time. It was a fluke thing. It's not going to happen again." ... The incident came only weeks after the Angels sent Weaver to Washington, D.C., for the three-day Rookie Career Development Program, which is designed to teach top prospects how to conduct themselves as major leaguers, how to handle media and community responsibilities, how to manage their finances, and how to make good decisions on and off the field." (LA Times)

    Craig Hansen BOS making good use of the offseason :

" ...   After dominating at St. John’s University and two levels of the minors last season with a biting slider and a fastball regularly measured at 97 mph, the 22-year-old right-hander spent his offseason developing a changeup that might be the final weapon needed to establish himself as a big league closer ... . He threw only a handful of changeups during his final season at St. John’s and in his 17 professional appearances. Hansen realized, however, that few pitchers succeed at the major league level with only two effective pitches ...  “I’ve been throwing it in a couple of bullpens down here and it feels great,” Hansen said. “It’s got a lot of movement. I’m pretty happy with it right now.”  (Boston Herald)

    Things looking up for a trio of PIT starting candidates :

" ... Tests performed yesterday on starter John Van Benschoten's stiff throwing shoulder showed improvement, he said, adding he could return to pitching "any day."

" ... Starter Bryan Bullington, the No. 1 pick in the 2002 draft, is scheduled to have his first long-tossing session tomorrow since Oct. 17 shoulder surgery. "You get a little anxious," Bullington said. "So far, everything is fine, and that's what's important."  (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

" ...  Sean Burnett ... "He has four very good pitches and possesses tremendous poise and composure," said Brian Graham, the Pirates' director of player development. "The fact that he commands the baseball and can throw the changeup and the slider when he's behind in the count -- it's unusual to be able to do that consistently. "Anybody who can will be a successful major league pitcher." ...  Burnett, who threw 40 full-speed-ahead pitches off a mound on Friday, the first day of spring-training workouts, is clearly eyeing an opening the Pirates have for a fifth starting pitcher ...  To do so, he'll not only have to convince management that his arm is fully healed and ready for major league duty, but also likely have to beat out Victor Santos, Ian Snell and Ryan Vogelsong." (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

    Jeff Mathis ANA working on the "D" to try and win the top catching job with the Angels :

" ...  Essentially, Mathis' stiffest competition will be within himself ... .  he is trying to become the type of catcher the organization values.  "I want to elevate my whole game," Mathis said of his tasks this spring. "Behind the plate, I want to be a better leader. I feel I need to know the pitchers, what they want to do and what they like to do." That attitude dovetails neatly with the definition of what the Angels, and specifically manager Mike Scioscia, see at the position. "The everyday catcher has to be able to catch and throw and be durable and be out there every day," Scioscia said. "You're not going to (make the decision based) on offense. It has to start with defense." ...  Mathis isn't an offensive liability, either. A gap-to-gap hitter, he batted .276 with 26 doubles, 21 homers and 73 RBIs last season at Salt Lake. But the ability to swing a bat will be saved as a tiebreaker of sorts in deciding on a starter if the competition remains even throughout camp."   (MLB.com)

    A pair of MIL's walking wounded -- Manny Parra, Mike Jones -- showing much different early results in return from surgeries.

" ...  Parra, 23, who had arthroscopic surgery on his rotator cuff on Aug. 4 of last year, has been shut down from throwing for the immediate future. "It's more precautionary than anything," manager Ned Yost said. "I don't think it's anything major. They've backed off a little bit. They're just being real cautious with him." Jones, on the other hand, has been throwing regularly in the Brewers' unofficial mini-camp the past week, including a 35-pitch batting practice session Friday. "It went well," said Jones, a first-round draft pick in 2001 who has undergone two shoulder surgeries since last pitching for Class AA Huntsville in 2004. "I let it loose a little bit. As of the first day, I should be on the same schedule as everybody else. It's going really well."  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

    The good guys at Sportsblurb have their 2006 Sourcebook about to hit the newsstands (tomorrow, the 21st, is the day).  It's jam packed with profiles, projections, sleeper picks and Top 40 prospects.  Check it out. 

Just had a peek at the Top 40 item (which offers a position by position analysis).  Some of the entries :

" ... Jarrod Saltalamacchia  ...  a big catcher (6’ 4”) with a smooth swing and excellent raw power. He is athletic enough to stay behind the plate and has improved his game-calling skills. Saltalamacchia is a 20-year old switch hitter with a good eye and has already had success against older competition. ETA: 2007."

" ... Howie Kendrick ...  a future batting champion whose excellent hand-eye coordination gives him the ability to make consistent contact like few other players in the minor leagues. He projects to have moderate power with below average speed, and be an average defender at second base. ETA: 2007."

" ... Nick Markakis  ...  a developing power threat who already has all of the other tools necessary for success. He is a classic defensive right fielder with a smooth, line-drive swing and a good eye and should develop into a good middle-of the-order hitter. ETA: 2006."

The Sourcebook also features a section by Rob Leibowitz on the 2005 Arizona Fall League, including a piece on a pair of highly-rated third sackers :

" ...  2005 first round picks Alex Gordon (KC) and Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) headlining the class. Gordon ...  above average defensively, but his bat is what impressed us and all the scouts. He has a great swing with plus power potential and an excellent batting eye. It would not be surprising to see him jumped directly to the Majors by mid-season. Gordon earns great praise for his defense at third, but Zimmerman still overshadows him in that department and there are many who think he could handle shortstop on a regular basis ... While not the most discipline hitter he has a good swing and should incorporate more power as time progresses. "

18-19 February, 2006 

    John Sickels ranks the OAK kids with Daric Barton topping a pedestrian ten.  Barton (A-),  second baseman Kevin Melillo (B+) and outfielder Javier Herrera (B) 1-2-3.

    At RotoAmerica, David Regan checks out the CIN farm and finds a few possible gems (Homer Bailey at No. 1) :

" ...  #2 Jay Bruce ...  has a sweet left-handed swing that is compared by some scouts to that of Larry Walker. Bruce profiles as a power-hitting RF, although he played a lot of CF and held his own there due to his good arm and athleticism ... shows a mature, disciplined approach at the plate. Has the power to hit 35 HR’s annually, so I wouldn’t worry too much about the high strikeout totals ... He’ll start the year in full-season ball (Low A) and the Reds hope he’ll be ready in 2-3 years to take an open OF position."

" ... #3 Travis Wood ...  Looks like the Reds got a gem here in the 2nd round. ...  has the Reds drooling over his potential. Sure he’s got the requisite 93-94 mph fastball, but it’s his great change that sets him apart and which allowed him to overwhelm rookie ball hitters. His curve is still developing and should eventually be at least major league average. Wood’s fastball shows good life in the zone and has some movement. He’ll likely start in Low A where he’ll work to build stamina, develop his curve, and most importantly, try and stay healthy. Reds envision him as their #2 starter in a couple years behind Homer Bailey."

    At least for now, it looks like the pen for LA's Greg Miller:

" ... organizational insiders now say he has a remote chance of actually making the club this spring as a lefty reliever. "I'm just trying to go out and get my feet back under me," he said. "It has been two years since I took (pitchers' fielding practice), two years since I practiced pickoffs. I just want to throw some effective bullpens, try to stay healthy for six weeks and get into the season on the right track." ... The surgeries notwithstanding, time clearly is on Miller's side. He turned 21 in November, and even during the darkest periods of the past two seasons, he never stopped believing he would be back. The one possibility he does concede is that his arm will never be well enough to allow him to return to starting. "It's really tough to tell," he said. "I haven't really thrown more than 45 pitches on the side, which is where I'm at now. I don't know if I'll eventually be able to throw 100 pitches in a game. I grew up as a starter, but at the same time, I really enjoy being able to pitch every other day if needed."

    David Luciani, Baseball Notebook, on Ryan Braun MIL :

" ...  I'm not rating Braun as high as his selection in the first round of the draft would justify, though I like him as a future medium level power hitter. Despite his hitting .355 in 37 games at Single-A West Virginia last year, his stroke doesn't look controlled enough to me to be a future .300 hitter in the majors (or even a .280 hitter for that matter) as he'll need to develop much more selectivity at the plate as he rises through the ranks. He also made 12 errors in just 33 games at third base last year and though the Brewers want him to end up as a third baseman by the time he hits the majors, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up as a first baseman by the time he arrives."

    Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, with another view on Ryan Braun MIL :

" ...  The only question is what position he'll play. The bat will definitely play in the big leagues. He hit .352 in 193 at-bats last year and slugged .632. He can hit. He's a very good athlete and runs well. I think he may stick at third. I think he might surprise some people there. Worst-case scenario, he becomes a corner outfielder, but his bat will play at any position. My guess is he begins the year in Brevard County in the Florida State League."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, with his take on Jason Hirsh :

" ...  He struggled in 2004, but made gigantic strides in '05, dominating the Double-A Texas League. Although he reportedly lacked confidence at times in '04, he was self-assured and aggressive on the mound last year. Scouts praise his work ethic.Hirsh is huge at 6-8, 245. Despite his size, his velocity was quite mediocre until 2003, when maturity and mechanical adjustments boosted his fastball ...  works at a consistent 90-93 MPH. He has a plus slider, and has turned his changeup into an average pitch ...  proven quite durable as a starter. He wasn't abused in college and has a fresh arm ... control is unusually good for such a tall pitcher ...  more athletic than most players his size, and while it is possible he could pick up some additional velocity, it's not exactly likely give his age (24) ...  probably needs half a season of Triple-A before being ready for the majors, but he should be ready by '07."

    Jim Callis, Baseball America, on SEA OF Wladimir Balentien :

" ... His light-tower power is very intriguing, and he also has a strong arm and average speed. But there are also some concerns about Balentien, who turned 21 at midseason. Chief among them is Balentien's discipline at the plate or, rather, his lack of it. He swings from his heels and tries to pull the ball out of the park every time up, making no adjustments for the situation and with little regard as to whether the pitch is in the strike zone. He struck out 160 times and walked just 33 in 121 games. There also are questions about his conditioning and effort ...  Based on my discussions with scouts, my gut feeling is that Balentien's approach won't work at upper levels."

    Tim Polko, RotoHelp, with entries for a couple of emerging young guns in his latest piece on AL starters :

" ...  Daniel Cabrera ...  While Cabrera appears on many sleeper lists this winter, he deserves that ranking due a virtual perfect storm of events that could send his value spiraling upward. Mild back problems prevented him from accumulating an unhealthy number of innings pitchers, and as he enters his third big league season, positive skill trends across-the-board suggests significant upside. Plus, he now enjoys the benefits of Leo Mazzone as his pitching coach, which should allow Cabrera to take full advantage of his 8.8 K/9 and 1.73 G-F. Expect him to build on an impressive second half as only an elevated walk rate stands between Cabrera and the upper echelon of big league pitchers."

" ...  Scott Baker ...  compiled a 3.01 ERA on a 107:26 K:BB in 134.2 IP with 123 H and 15 HR over 22 GS in the minors. His big league numbers suggest a youngster capable of emerging as a quality #4 starter this year, yet he heads into camp in competition with flamethrowing southpaw Francisco Liriano for the #5 spot. While Baker deserves to win that battle due to his superior consistency in climbing the minor league ladder, his comparative lack of dominance even could result in a long-term assignment to the bullpen."

    A top SEA prospect makes an early good impression :

" ...   Jeff Clement, a non-roster catcher and third overall selection in last June's draft, banged soaring home runs during batting practice. One landed beyond two fences and well into a parking lot, where it bounded high over parked cars. "That was impressive," Hargrove said ...  although he was taking swings off coach Mike Goff. "Clement can swing the bat," Hargrove said. "Give me an easy chair and a glass of tea, and I can watch him hit all day long ."  (Seattle Times)

    Mets' Phil Humber on the road back and ahead of schedule :

" ...  I don't know how I could be doing any better," said Humber, who underwent surgery in July. "I think it can happen sooner than June with the timeline I'm on now. You never know what can happen. I didn't sit down and think about where I was going to be, but I haven't had any setbacks." Humber is currently throwing 45 feet off a mound and is also long tossing without restrictions. He is expecting to throw a full-out bullpen session within the next few weeks. While some pitchers have returned from Tommy John surgery in as few as 10 months, the Mets aren't about to rush Humber back."  (MLB.com)

    Ronny Cedeno ready for the shortstop challenge in Chicago :

" ... This winter, Cedeno shined. He had shuttled between Triple-A Iowa and the Cubs in 2005, hitting .355 in 65 games at Iowa and .300 for the Cubs. His season ended early on Sept. 10, after he was hit on the hand by a pitch. He played for the Aragua Tigres in winter ball and batted .355 with nine doubles, four triples and 28 RBIs in 45 games. He was named Rookie of the Year in the Venezuelan league. Cedeno did take ground balls at second base during batting practice in Venezuela, but did not play there during games. Shortstop is his natural position and that's where the Cubs want him ...  It wasn't a perfect winter. Cedeno was charged with 12 errors for Aragua, although the Venezuelan playing fields can be a little rough."  (MLB.com)

17 February, 2006 

    Hard to believe ... pitchers and catchers reporting to camp ...  ah, Spring Training ...

    Troop Movements ...  according to one of his agents, Sammy Sosa has retired ... CIN - Jung Bong to AAA ... SD - claimed Jason Anderson off waivers from NYA,  designated RHP Kenny Baugh for assignment ... BAL - announced the retirement of Brooks Kieschnick ... LAA - confirmed the signing of Jeff Weaver ...  CHA - claimed Rusty Tucker off waivers from SD ...

    Dayn Perry, FOXSports, moves up to the 31 to 40 group in his Top 100.  A pair of young outfielders and another PIT lefty on the chart :

" ... 36. Carlos Gonzales ...  was generally younger than his peer group in the Midwest League, but he still managed to win MVP for the circuit. He produced a batting line of .307 AVG/.371 OBP/.489 SLG, and one-third of his hits went for extra bases. Gonzales made strides with his plate discipline last season, and he also plays a nifty right field. He's one to watch next season, and he'll put up big power numbers once his body fills out."

" ... 39. Paul Maholm ...   isn't a blazer, but he hides the ball well, has command of four pitches and keeps the ball on the ground. Last season, Maholm had success across three different levels including a stellar 41-inning stint in Pittsburgh. His ceiling is a bit limited, but he does project as a quality mid-rotation talent in the majors."

" ...  40. Matt Kemp ...   is all about the power. Last season, Kemp spent the entire year at High-A Vero Beach and slugged .569 and notched 27 homers (and the Florida State League is generally a pitcher's circuit), and he followed it up with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. He doesn't have great range in the outfield, he doesn't draw enough walks, and his pitch-recognition skills are sub-optimal. Kemp does, however, hit fastballs, and he hits them a long way."

    Matt Jacovina, WarmOctoberNights, highlights the Royals' kids and goes with Alex Gordon as the top dog :

" ...   Gordon is a rare talent that makes the list at number one despite signing too late to get in on any professional at-bats. There’s nothing to dislike about his game: his defense is at least average at a premium position, his speed is adequate and made better by plus base running skills, and his bat is special. Coming out of college, he’s also very polished, perhaps as much as any other hitting prospect in the minors this side of Jeremy Hermida."

" ... 2. Billy Butler ...    With the bat, he’s a maestro, possessing an offensive ceiling rivaling Gordon’s. Where to play him is the question mildly clouding up his future. He can hit from any position, even if it has to be at DH, but the Royals are hoping to salvage him from the defensively challenged heap and hope he’ll find some comfort either in the outfield or first base ... Don’t worry too much about where he ends up, though, since that’d be missing the point. Butler will mash at the major league level, and will be doing it at some point in 2007 (or sooner), whether it’s at first, left, or just left-off the field as a DH."

    In his assessment of the KC kids, John Sickels also selected Gordon as the best of the lot ahead of Butler and Justin Huber.  Gordon gained an "A" rating, Butler and Huber are listed at "B+".

John also ranks the MIL and NYN systems.  The Mets' farm is described as "depressing".  Lastings Milledge (A-), Mike Pelfrey (A-) rank 1-2.   "Impressive" is the way John looks at the Brewers' farm with Prince Fielder (A-), Ryan Braun (B+) and Jose Capellan (B+) 1-2-3. 

    Brian Anderson CHA not happy with post-surgery recovery and Jerry Owens not viewed as a possible replacement :

" ...  Anderson had offseason surgery Nov. 1 in which a plate and several pins were removed from his right wrist. While he was cleared last week by doctors to participate in camp, Anderson has some lingering concerns about the procedure. "No matter how minor the surgery is, whenever you have any type of offseason surgery, it's going to be some type of a setback,'' Anderson said. "I don't have pain for the most part, and the strength is there, but I am still having some of the repercussions of the surgery." ...  "I'm trying to get to the point where my wrist feels normal. There's still some of that surgery 'stuff' in there.'' ... As far as Owens, the athletic rookie is all but crossed off the candidate list. "Jerry Owens is not ready to play center field right now,'' Williams said. "He had a shoulder injury a couple of years ago and had a procedure to take care of that. His arm strength hasn't come back. We were hoping to see some improvements in his strength this winter when he was playing in Venezuela, but there were none.''  (Chicago Sun-Times)

    Finally, a bit of good news for the Phils pitching phenom :

" ...  Lefthander Cole Hamels said his back feels fine, and he hopes to be pitching in spring-training games by the second week of March. Hamels had to be shut down for a few weeks recently because of back problems, but he said he has received positive signs from trainer Jeff Cooper. Hamels, 22, was a first-round pick in the 2002 draft. He is expected to open the season at double-A Reading."  (Philadelphia Inquirer)

    Tim Polko, RotoHelp, offers a couple of young(er) starters in his review of the top AL SPs :

" ...   Joe Blanton ...  With no injury history and a full season at AAA Sacramento in 2004, Blanton moved right into Oakland's rotation and emerged as the club's best starter down the stretch. If we remove his five May starts, his stat line drops to a 12-9 record and 2.56 ERA with a 110:53 K:BB, 147 H, and 18 HR in 184 IP. Although he never should dominate hitters, Blanton could hit $20 without much effort if his consistency improves and the club's offense rebounds as expected. I view him as one of the best starting pitchers to own over the rest of the decade."

" ...  Chien-Ming Wang  ...  emerged as the Yankees' best young rookie starter in many years despite a poor 3.6 K/9 that does not match his stat history ...  Although he could return to the minors, Wang appears a better fit in the Yankees' rotation right now than Jaret Wright, giving the sophomore an edge for the last spot. Of course, the advanced age and fragility of most New York pitchers virtually insure that Wang will spend most of the year starting as long as his shoulder problems don't return."

14 February, 2006 

    A reminder ... flowers, chocolates, intimate dinners, vacation plans ... NO irons, vacuum cleaners, snow blowers ...  taking a day or two off (out of town & prepping for drafts) ... less than two weeks until the first of the spring games ...

    Troop Movements ...  FA Shingo Takatsu to return to Japan ... Jeff Weaver close to a deal with LAA ...

    Mark Allen Haverty, The Sporting News, has the first installment of his Top 50 for 2006 (Delmon Young, Prince Fielder, Francisco Liriano 1-2-3).

" ...  24. Jered Weaver ...  Overhyped thanks to his gaudy college numbers and high-powered agent, Weaver is going to be a solid major league pitcher. He's more of a middle-of-the-rotation guy, not a No. 1 or No. 2."

" ...  17. Brandon Wood ...   is this low only because of the uncertainty of where he will start 2006. The jump from High-A to the majors would be dramatic. If there were a guarantee that he would start in the majors, he would move right to the top of the list. He's the second coming of Nomar Garciaparra."

" ...  13. Josh Willingham ... Just about everyone has been cleaned out of town in Miami, and Willingham will be one of the prime beneficiaries. Willingham is from the Mike Piazza school of catching; he hits so well that no one notices how many pitches he drops. Unlike Piazza, Willingham will wear the Marlins' teal for longer than a week. In 219 at-bats in Triple-A Albuquerque last year, Willingham hit .324 with 19 homers and 54 RBIs."

" ...  8. Kenji Johjima ...   Not a great long-term prospect, Johjima is the M's everyday catcher after playing in Japan since 1995. Although the home run numbers he put up in Japan -- at least 24 in each of the past five seasons -- are certainly impressive, remember that Japanese home runs cannot be compared realistically to American homers. After all, Alex Cabrera hit 55 home runs in Japan, and no one is clamoring for his return. Still, Johjima should have decent pop and hit for a respectable average."

    At  FOXSports, Aaron Gleeman has his Top 100 (Young, Liriano, Daric Barton 1-2-3). 

" ...  10. Yusmeiro Petit ...  cemented his place as one of baseball's most underrated prospects with an excellent 2005 season. Despite raw stuff that has never impressed scouts, the 21-year-old Petit is 25-16 with a 2.76 ERA and 429 strikeouts in 346 minor-league innings, including 9-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 117.2 innings at Double-A in 2005. He'll soon join Scott Kazmir on the list of pitching prospects the Mets wish they hadn't dealt away."

" ... 20. Jeff Mathis ...  figures to take over as Los Angeles' everyday catcher this season. Mathis struggled in 2004, but bounced back last season by hitting .276 with 21 homers in 112 games at Triple-A. He may struggle to post good batting averages, but at 23, he's a good defender and has top-notch power for the position."

" ... 25. Andy LaRoche ...  probably still behind Joel Guzman on the Dodgers' long-term depth chart at third base, but he certainly made some gains on Guzman in 2005. LaRoche began the year at Single-A, hit .333 with 21 homers and 51 RBIs in 63 games there, and then hit .273 with another nine homers and 43 RBIs in 64 games at Double-A. Just 22, Los Angeles will likely be conservative with LaRoche's development and he's been mentioned in trade rumors."

" ... 35. Anibal Sanchez ...   strengthened his status as a top prospect in 2005 by posting a 2.85 ERA and 158-to-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 136 innings between Single-A and Double-A ... figures to get a shot in the rebuilt Marlins' rotation a lot sooner than he would have with the Red Sox."

    Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld, reviews the kids in the NL Central and finds some potential gems:

1 - CHN  " ... Felix Pie ... The club hoped to have him replace Corey Patterson, but he couldn’t make it back from his bone bruise. He only returned in the Dominican Winter League, where he hit just .209/.250/.319 in 91 AB. There was never any good reason to believe Pie was ready to help the Cubs. He still swings at too many bad pitches, and his speed has yet to turn him into a quality basestealer. There’s no shortage of potential here -- he’s a strong defensive center fielder and he’s developing 20-homer power -- but another full year in the minors will be for the best."

1 - CIN  " ...  Homer Bailey ...   seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft, had his pro debut held up slightly last year following offseason knee surgery. He also experienced some arm stiffness in May, and he was pretty inconsistent when he took the mound. Still, he’s easily the Reds’ top prospect. Bailey regularly works in the mid-90s with his fastball and his curve is a terrific second pitch. His changeup isn’t yet good enough to fool hitters and he has a long way to go in the command department, but he has No. 2-starter upside."

1- HOU  " ... Troy Patton  ...  slipped to the ninth round of the 2004 draft. The Astros took him and offered him second-round money and now have their best pitching prospect since Roy Oswalt. Patton throws 91-94 mph and his curveball neutralizes left-handed hitters. An improving changeup should help him against right-handers when he reaches the majors, something that might happen as soon as the second half of the year. He could emerge as a No. 2 starter."

4 - MIL " ...  Ryan Braun ...   fifth overall pick in the 2005 draft following a season in which he hit .388/.471/.726 for the University of Miami. More exceptional batting averages can be expected, though he probably won’t walk much, and he could hit 25 homers per year in the majors. However, just how good of a prospect he is depends greatly on his ability to stay at third base. If he can handle the position adequately, he might be an All-Star. He’d likely end up in left field otherwise, and he might not be much more than an average regular there."

2 - PIT " ...  Paul Maholm ...  failed to make the Pirates’ top 10 a year ago after he suffered a broken orbital bone when he was hit by a line drive. He came back in impressive fashion last season and showed the form that made him the seventh overall pick in the 2003 draft. While command is his biggest strength, Maholm now works in the low-90s consistently and his curveball will help him maintain a respectable strikeout rate. He’s essentially assured of a spot as the Pirates’ No. 4 starter and he could be a Rookie of the Year contender."

1 - STL  " ... Anthony Reyes  ...  seems ready enough, but the Cardinals went and signed Sidney Ponson anyway, indicating that their top prospect could begin the year in middle relief or even return to Triple-A Memphis. Most likely, Reyes will get his rotation spot sooner or later ...  works in the low-90s and has one of the organization’s best breaking balls. His change is a quality third pitch and the command is there, so if his arm holds up, he could develop into a No. 2 starter. Because he does have a history of minor arm problems and he occasionally struggles to pitch on four days’ rest, he is at high risk of flaming out."

    Talk about strength at those hard to fill positions (catcher, shortstop).  In John Sickels' ranking of the Angels kids, there are six shortstops and three catchers.  SS Brandon Wood tops the list, ahead of Howie Kendrick (A-) and Kendry Morales (B+). 

    Mike Scarr, MLB.com, in a look at the Angel's kids, includes notes on two of the less-hyped farmhands:

" ... Kendry Morales ... His reputation preceded him (at 19, he was the cleanup hitter on the Cuban national team) and he's put up the numbers to support it since. Morales hit .344 at Rancho Cucamonga before getting the jump after 22 games. In 281 at-bats at Arkansas, he batted .306 with 17 homers and 54 RBIs. He then led the AFL with 14 doubles while hitting .380. Projecting mostly as a first baseman, Morales also could get a look at third or in the outfield eventually. "He is going to be an outstanding hitter. He will hit for average and for power. I believe he has the potential to hit 30 home runs."

" ... Alberto Callaspo ...  made two stops last season on the organization ladder, hitting .297 in 350 at-bats at Arkansas and .316 in 212 at-bats after getting promoted to Triple-A Salt Lake. Signed as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2001, he was named to the Texas League postseason All-Star team last season and hit .304 with eight doubles and a .370 on-base percentage this winter. "He is a good-looking hitter, but he's going to have to learn how to play without Erick Aybar. He is also a good defender but now he has to battle Howie Kendrick."

    Tim Polko, RotoHelp, with a few young(er) guns in his NL outfield review :

" ...  Matt Murton  ...  Many Cubs' fans view Murton as the best chance for Dusty Baker to prove he doesn't hate rookies despite Baker's refusal to bat the kid in the logical #2 hole when Murton's OBP might have saved Chicago's season. The good news is that Murton simply demolished the Southern League ... thoroughly earning his mid-season promotion ...  Murton appears far more likely to struggle to emerge as a productive regular."

" ...  Corey Hart ...  Only a poor 2.08 G-F in the majors particularly worries me, since Hart otherwise appears fully seasoned and ready to join the Brewers. He obviously possesses plenty of speed and patience, and although he currently looks on track to break camp as the primary backup at all four corners, the fairly likely departure of Carlos Lee within the next year should clear a starting job."

" ...  Nelson Cruz  ...  With little left to prove in the minors, Cruz nevertheless might return to Nashville unless the Brewers opt to keep multiple outfield prospects as big league reserves. Corey Hart's breakout probably pushes him ahead of Cruz in the organization's plans, but since by 2007 I only expect either Geoff Jenkins or Carlos Lee to continue starting in Milwaukee, Cruz only needs to repeat these numbers to secure a starting job within the year ...   I expect Cruz's fairly broad skill base to carry him to plenty of success in the majors."

" ...  Ben Johnson ...  really struggled through three trips to AA Mobile. Somehow he boosted his contact rate from a .73 career mark to nearly .79 in his first AAA campaign, resulting in virtually across-the-board improvement in his production. Now he almost certainly will break camp as the Padres' fourth outfielder in the Xavier Nady mold, absorbing any excess at-bats ceded from Brian Giles, Mike Cameron, and especially Dave Roberts as Johnson learns the nuances of Petco Park. Treat Johnson as an outstanding bargain almost anywhere in single digits due to the strong likelihood of him succeeding Roberts no later than 2007."

    Joe Borchard CHA having second thoughts about a football career :

" ...  Borchard said he has talked to both general manager Ken Williams and assistant GM Rick Hahn several times this offseason about being traded. With those requests not being met as spring training camps open this week, Borchard now is entertaining the idea of pursuing a football career he walked away from when the Sox drafted the two-sport athlete from Stanford in 2000. ''This was the first offseason where I did start thinking about things differently,'' Borchard said. ''I talked to an old offensive coordinator friend of mine from college who is now in the CFL [Canadian Football League] and asked him if I had a chance to play in that league still. He told me, 'You've got a spot waiting for you.' So, yeah, you start thinking about it.''   (Chicago Sun-Times)

    Yurendell De Caster PIT fortifies his "sleeper" status with an impressive winter season capturing Baseball America's award as Winter Player Of The Year :

" ... De Caster, 26, has come a long way since signing with the Devil Rays in 1996 out of his native Curacao ...  Playing mostly the outfield for Oriente, De Caster batted .325-17-47 in 209 at-bats. He tied for the league lead in homers--falling two shy of the league record--tied for the lead in steals, and finished second in runs and RBIs. Originally signed as a third baseman, De Caster has become one of the most versatile players in the Pirates' organization. Last season at Indianapolis, De Caster played both corner infield positions, and even filled-in in right field late in the summer when the Indians were making their push to the International League playoffs."

    Mike Harmon, FOXSports, offers some examples of "prospect breakthroughs" in 2006:

" ...  Howie Kendrick ...  offers contributions in all categories (.367, 19 HR, 25 SB), and makes good contact, striking out only once in every seven at-bats. He'll need to work on taking pitches, but it's hard to force a hitter who is dominating to change his style. Besides, he'd fit right in alongside Vladimir Guerrero."

" ... Stephen Drew ... defensive liabilities may keep him out of the big leagues for a spell, but the potential of a bat similar to older brother J.D. will force Arizona to get him in the lineup. He hit .320 and clubbed 14 homers with 52 RBI in 250 Class-A at-bats in 2005, then bounced to AA and played in the Arizona Fall League. Drew showed good plate discipline last season with average speed and should be a solid contributor to fantasy lineups upon his arrival to the show."

" ... Carlos Quentin ... ,continues to dominate at the minor league level and is ready for his chance at the show. He hit .301 with 21 home runs and 89 RBI at Triple-A last season in 452 at-bats. He improved his plate discipline as well in '05, actually drawing one more walk than he had strikeouts."

13 February, 2006 

    Troop Movements ...  NYA - designated Jason Anderson for assignment ... WAS - sold Jamey Carroll to COL ... CIN - signed Scott Hatteberg ...

    At minorleaguenbaseball.com, Jonathan Mayo chats with expert prospectors Jim Callis, Baseball America, and Deric McKamey, Baseball HQ.  Both went with Delmon Young as their No. 1 prospect.  A few differences noted -- Papelbon (Callis No. 22, McKamey 46),  Hirsh (Callis 48, McKamey, unranked), Aybar (Callis 45, McKamey 20)

McKamey on Jon Papelbon BOS  " ... the guys I had in the Top 10 were Chad Billingsley ... Francisco Liriano ... those guys have the plus stuff and the makeup and have the numbers to back it up ... to me the thing with Papelbon is he's 25 years old which is a lot older than some of the guys ranked ahead of him plus I don't know if the Red Sox are quite sure what they want to do with him ... I project him as a number three starter ... I like Papelbon a lot, there's just a lot of pitchers ahead of him."

Callis on Felix Pie CHN  " ... classic case of a guy with great tools who needs time to put them together.  Plate discipline is still lacking, very good speed, still gets caught stealing way too many times.  He has some power potential ... but that was the first time he had slugged as high as .450 ... I would hope they wouldn't rush him."

McKamey on Anthony Reyes STL  " ...  I don't think he has the stuff of a number one starter although I can see him being a number two without too much hesitation ... has excellent, excellent stuff ... his big problem ... he's always been hurt ... elbow problems, shoulder problems, his delivery is quite stiff but when he pitches he is very dominant ... he's the package when he can pitch but you just worry about his stamina."

McKamey on Jason Hirsh HOU   " ... I don't want to say he's a one-year wonder but I want to see more of that to rank him a little bit higher."

Callis on Hirsh  " ... I don't think Deric is saying Hirsh isn't good ... his gut feel is he wants to see it again ... he just made strides against the board.  He's a 6-8, 240 pounder who is very athletic for his size and just got a lot more confidence this year ... always had a good, powerful arm but his slider and changeup got a lot better. For me it's a gut-feel pick too and he just snuck on to my Top 50."

Callis on Erick Aybar LAA  "... he's kind of your traditional shortstop.  I don't see a huge offensive ceiling ... he's a good defender ... I see him as kind of a .290 - .300 hitter with not many walks, maybe 25 doubles, and 10 homers ... a solid offensive player but not an all-star calibre offensive player. "

    Some variation here as Scoresheet leagues begin 2006 drafts (all AL keeper leagues listed below with the one notable exception).  A few eye-openers, but generally Beckett, Burnett, Wilkerson tabbed as the guys to get.

 1  42 Beckett    42 Beckett    42 Beckett   419 Rodriguez  42 Beckett   502 Wilkerson
 2  15 Burnett    15 Burnett   502 Wilkerson   2 Santana    15 Burnett   440 Marte
 3 365 Thome      38 Greinke    15 Burnett   344 Teixeira   38 Greinke    42 Beckett
 4 502 Wilkerson 440 Marte     440 Marte     512 Guerrero  440 Marte      15 Burnett
 5 313 Hernandez 313 Hernandez 313 Hernandez 302 Mauer     313 Hernandez 385 Polanco
 6 388 Castillo   59 Santana   570 Baldelli  503 Ramirez    59 Santana E 541 Ordonez
 7 107 Liriano   502 Wilkerson 390 Loretta   453 Tejada    502 Wilkerson 390 Loretta
 8 343 Johjima     9 Loaiza    365 Thome      73 Hernandez   9 Loaiza    388 Castillo
 9 385 Polanco   343 Johjima     9 Loaiza    495 Sizemore  343 Johjima   349 Overbay
10 390 Loretta   385 Polanco   505 Huff       57 Halladay  385 Polanco   428 Lowell
11 360 Johnson    18 Towers     26 Moyer      61 Harden     18 Towers    528 Nixon
12 368 Kotchman  305 Rodriguez 343 Johjima   452 Young     305 Rodriguez 343 Johjima

    David Paresky, InsideTheDugout, has centre fielder Lastings Milledge atop the Mets prospect list with a pair of SP candidates in the wings :

" ...  2. Mike Pelfrey ...  held out until January, so he didn’t play this season. However, he was dominant in college at Wichita State ...  sits between 92-97 MPH and has a lot of sink on his fastball ...  very polished. Good change-up, potential plus pitch ... . could be ready with in a year or so, and will most likely dominate in the low minors. He has the ceiling of a number one starter."

" ... 3. Phillip Humber ...  first round of the 2004 draft, 3rd overall out of Rice University. Phillip Humber was a very successful college pitcher going 35-8 in three seasons. However, he had Tommy John in July ...  only recently has been able to throw off of flat ground recently. His fastball is from 90-94, touching the high nineties at times. He had an excellent plus 12-6 curve and a changeup/splitter that is above average as well. He didn’t pitch well in his stint in the minors, but that is most likely from his elbow problems. There are questions of whether he can remain as a starter, and may emerge as a reliever."

    John Sickels, MinorLeagueBall, goes with five pitchers to lead off the Jays' prospect chart -- lefties Ricky Romero (B+) and David Purcey (B+) 1-2, Dustin McGowan (B) No. 3 ahead of Josh Banks and Casey Janssen (both B's).

" ...  I expect the ranking of Romero and Purcey ahead of McGowan will be very controversial. When I wrote the book, my thinking was that McGowan had the highest physical ceiling of the three, no question, and I was VERY high on him before he got hurt. He appears healthy now, but I'm uncertain about his command, which was a major problem for him at times last season and will hamper him unless it improves. Because of the command issue, I lowered his grade from B+ in the early draft of the book to a straight B before we went to press."

    In his Cubbies report, Sickels breaks the pattern (everyone else with Felix Pie atop the Cubs' chart) and goes with lefty starter Mark Pawelek as No. 1 although he notes it's a toss-up :

" ...  As high school pitchers go, I like Pawelek a lot. Pie's athleticism is impressive and he performs well, at times.  He is still rather raw and will struggle if rushed. Picking between Pawelek and Pie for the number one spot is a back-and-forth thing. When I went to bed last night I was going to put Pie on top, but I changed my mind this morning."

    Gary Gillette, ESPN, picks his blue-chip rookies of 2006 :

" ...   CF Brian Anderson ...  center field on the South Side of Chicago is Anderson's to lose. The positive spin on Anderson is that he is a multi-threat player who can hit for average, has power, range and a strong arm. The opposite spin on the right-handed hitter is that he doesn't excel in any area except possibly his arm, with subpar speed, medium power and merely adequate range. Plus, he struck out 115 times in 118 games in Triple-A last year. That's a formula for disappointment if Anderson's power is stymied by big-league pitching."

" ... RHP Jonathan Papelbon ...  Ticketed for the BoSox bullpen to start the season, Papelbon will end 2006 in the rotation ...  The right-hander throws hard enough to succeed against big-league hitters, and his slider and split both could be out pitches, but he needs better command of both pitches to get there."

" ... SS Stephen Drew ...  weak performance in Double-A failed to dim Drew's rising star after his boffo pro debut in 2005, first in the independent Atlantic League and then in the California League ...  left-handed power bat and good plate discipline. Defensively, he's adequate at best at shortstop, and the Diamondbacks signing of Justin Upton make it highly likely that Drew will be moved to another position."

" ... LHP Paul Maholm ... left-hander with an average fastball who depends on good control and location, Maholm jumped all the way from Class A in 2004 to the majors in 2005. He has the potential to be a solid starter if he can develop a reliable third pitch to go with his plus curve, which makes him devastating on left-handed hitters."

    RaysBaseball wraps its TB Top 25 with the final five, topped by Delmon Young with Wes Bankston as the runner-up.  Jeff Niemann ranked No. 4, just ahead of Jason Hammel and Elijah Dukes :

" ...  Niemann missed time at the beginning of the season and missed a good portion of the middle of the season. In between, he struck out alot of hitters, allowed few walks but also allowed too many free passes. He was still trying to shake off the rust as he has amassed all of 110 innings the last 24 months. He no longer is topping out in the upper-90's, but still has some nasty stuff and his 6'9 frame is imposing. The classic high reward/high risk pitching prospect."

" ...  Dukes took the momentum he gained in the second half of 2004 and kept the peddle to the medal in Montgomery. He had two sensational months, two very rough months and he finished the season with a solid 820 OPS in August. He made better contact in 2005 while sustaining a good walk rate."

    Mike Hindman, DickieThon.com, in his position-by-position analysis of the TEX farm, ranks the outfielders and there's a familiar ring to the name atop the list - John Mayberry Jr.

" ... From the moment Mayberry was selected by the Rangers in the first round of the 2005 draft, we were told that a major swing rebuild was in the offing and it showed. But something else appears to have happened: it all seems to have clicked late in the season. Not only did Mayberry retool his swing on the fly (with an emphasis on shortening his stroke), but ...  made the defensive switch to right field where his outstanding athleticism, above-average speed and plus arm could become bigger assets ...  All in all, Mayberry’s debut season was a positive  ... The upside here is huge: Mayberry has the physical gifts to possibly become a 40 homer, 20 stolen base guy with well above average skills in right field and he has the smarts, discipline and raw ability to realize all of that potential."

    Jim Molony, MLB.com, highlights his selections as the likely top young guns of this season :

" ...   which ones will play their way into the Rookie of the Year picture? The frontrunner right now might be Florida outfielder Jeremy Hermida. The Marlins' first-round pick in 2002, Hermida has one of those sweet left-handed swings scouts marvel at ...  has speed and power potential, and the indications are he will one day be a star corner outfielder. Scouts have been impressed with Hermida's knowledge of the strike zone (he walked 111 times and struck out 89 times in 118 games at Double-A Carolina last season). He also stole 23 bases and hit .293 with 18 homers and 63 RBIs."

" ... Seattle's Kenji Johjima, set to become the first Japanese-born catcher in Major League history, could become the Mariners' first Rookie of the Year winner since fellow countryman Ichiro Suzuki did it in 2001. The 29-year-old Johjima averaged .299 with 28 homers and 97 RBIs the last seven seasons in Japan and is solid defensively."

" ... Washington's Ryan Zimmerman ...  the first player taken in the 2005 draft to reach the Major Leagues. Washington general manager Jim Bowden has compared Zimmerman's defense to Brooks Robinson, Scott Rolen and Mike Schmidt ... clearly has excellent range and an above-average glove. He's no slouch with the bat either. After hitting a combined .336 with 11 home runs and 38 RBIs for Class A Savannah and Double-A Harrisburg, Zimmerman hit .397 with six RBIs in a 20-game September stint with the Nationals."

    D'Backs lose a top young gun for much of spring training "

" ...   center field prospect Chris Young ...  suffered a broken right hand while working out at a Florida gym ... "Right now, we're looking at four to six weeks before he can return to play," Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "He's going to miss his spring training at-bats, but I guess the only good news is that it happened now and not in season." Young apparently was doing some agility drills, jumping up and down off boxes, when he lost his balance, tried to brace himself, and broke his hand upon falling."  (Arizona Republic)

    The kids in the mix for some pitching openings in HOU :

" ...  With Roger Clemens not having announced if or where he will play this year, the Astros will have to address the bottom of the rotation. The top three spots are set with back-to-back 20-game winner Roy Oswalt, Astros 2005 pitcher of the year Andy Pettitte and Brandon Backe, who tossed seven scoreless innings in Game 4 of the World Series. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez, who won 10 games as a rookie last year, is the favorite for the No. 4 spot. Righthander Ezequiel Astacio and rookies Taylor Buchholz and Fernando Nieve are vying for the final spot. "The odds-on favorites are Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio, but there are no locks," Garner [manager Phil Garner] said. "We'll take a good look at some of these kids we have in spring training."  (Houston Chronicle)
 

Rookie Reports Archive :

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