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15/16 January, 2005
Winter ball playoffs ... Ruben Rivera 2-4 ... Fernando
Valenzuela 4.2 6 3 0 0 2 ... Edgar Clemente 3-5, 3 RBI ...
Yadier Molina STL 3-5, 2 RBI ... 2nd playoff win for Bill
Pulsipher 5.2 7 3 2 1 1 ... Fernando Nieve HOU 5.1 6 3 2 1 7
... Franklin Gutierrez VLE 3-4, triple & 3-4, double, homer
... Jose Lopez SEA 1-4, homer & 1-3 ... Juan Rivera
ANA 1-4 & 2-5, homer ... Renyel Pinto CHN 1.2 4 4 4 1 2 ...
Jose Lima KC 3.0 0 0 0 1 2 ... Denny Bautista KC 2.0 3 4 2
2 3 ... Miguel Tejada BAL, in mid-season form, 2-4, double, homer,
5 RBI ... Manny Aybar NYN 5.0 5 1 1 2 7
Among the non-roster prospects to win invitations to Spring Training ... Jeff
Francoeur, Prince Fielder, Lou Palmisano, Cole Hamels, Erick Aybar, Nick
Gorneault, Howard Kendrick, Mike Napoli, Hayden Penn, Ryan Garko, Justin
Verlander, Jonah Bayliss, Huston Street, Felix Hernandez, Joaquin Arias, John
Danks, Thomas Diamond, Ian Kinsler and Mike Nickeas
Bryan Smith, Wait Til Next Year,
has kicked off his annual Top 75 (no first-year players, at least no 2004
draftees) with with a look at 25 guys who just failed to make the cut --
25 "honorable mentions". Lots of talent included :
" ... Melky Cabrera ... I have never
made it a secret of my obsession with Melky Cabrera ... You have to love a
player with a K% (K/AB) under 20, and he was at 13.5 in the Midwest League, and
17.7 in Tampa. Both, for such a young player, to fare this well in full-season
ball is quite the accomplishment. He’s a few walks away from being a clone of
Bernie Williams at the same age, so that should get all you Bombers fans
salivating. Given the problem in centerfield and Duncan’s block, I really see no
player in this organization that’s more likely to stay with New York other than
Cabrera."
" ... Jonathan Broxton ... his
ranking would likely be higher if not for the loud murmurs that he’s a candidate
to make the switch to the bullpen. His control improved late in the season,
quieting such talk, but such a big body will always harbor those debates. His
performance in Vero Beach, like just about everyone that pitches there, was
dominant. Care to be freaked out? Try comparing Broxton’s peripherals (7.7 H/9,
3.0 W/9, 10.1 K/9, 1.19 WHIP) with those of Eric Gagne in the same stadium (7.6
H/9, 3.1 W/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.19 WHIP)."
" ... Francisco Liriano ... Everyone
has their favorite Twin prospect to break out next season, from Scott Baker to
Scott Tyler to Adam Harben to Alex Romero to Liriano. While I agree with Romero
as well, I think Liriano has the chance to take as large a step forward as
anyone on this list next season. Remember, this was his first season back from
arm injury, and he still showed a lot of great stuff and hope for the future ...
think his strikeouts are indicative that his great stuff was at least some of
the way back this year, and they should only improve as he returns to New
Britain this year. A loaded Minnesota rotation will give him time to develop,
though I do think Liriano could be pushing the envelope, and give Aaron a new
“Free ____” caimpaign, as early as this year."
Jim Callis,
Baseball America, on Felix vs Yusmeiro and the catcher of the future in OAK
(Daric Barton, Landon Powell, Kurt Suzuki?) :
" ... Petit is a good prospect coming off an
exceptional season ... but his stuff isn't in the same category Hernandez'.
The best pitching prospect in the game ... Scouts still aren't sure how Petit
has dominated lower-level hitters as much as he has. His fastball has good
velocity (89-93 mph) and movement but is a 55-60 pitch on the 20-80 scouting
scale. His slider and changeup are solid-average and could become plus pitches.
While Hernandez projects as a No. 1 starter, Petit realistically has a ceiling
of a No. 3."
" ... Barton is definitely the top prospect
in that group, though his ability to catch is very suspect and he likely will
see a fair amount of time at first base or left field in 2005. Oakland's catcher
of the future probably will come down to a pair of 2004 draft picks,
first-rounder Powell and second-rounder Suzuki. Suzuki (of
national champion Cal State Fullerton) and Powell (of third-place South
Carolina) were the catchers on our first and second All-America teams last year,
but other than that they don't share a whole lot in common. Suzuki is a
line-drive hitter with firm command of the strike zone, and he's more agile
behind the plate. Powell is more about strength, both in terms of power at the
plate and in his right arm."
Good news for Joe Mauer owners :
" ... His pain-free status has put a smile on the
face of Twins general manager Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire - not to
mention Mauer himself. ``The knee is feeling pretty good. I'm just ready for
spring to start,'' the soft-spoken Mauer said before stepping onto the field.
``It feels good to get back out on the field in this weather, so I'm ready to
go.'' ... The Twins are confident that it is, and are preparing for spring
training with the idea that Mauer will be their everyday catcher for the entire
season. His rehab has gone better than expected thanks to Mauer's drive and work
ethic. ``We don't have to worry about him working. He's a dedicated guy when it
comes to rehabbing himself,'' Ryan said from Minneapolis. ``He does and has done
everything we've asked and he's been in Florida more than he's been in Minnesota
ever since the season concluded. He's done a lot of therapy and rehab. In fact,
we've wanted him to back off some because we're concerned that he's overdoing
it.'' (Minneapolis Star Tribune)
After two trips to the operating room, Paul Maholm PIT ready to resume
his career :
" ... Maholm is making a nice recovery after being
drilled in the face by a line drive while pitching at Class A Lynchburg. Maholm
said on the first day of mini-camp Wednesday that his vision has returned to
normal and he's been cleared to do normal baseball-related activities. "I'll be
getting into a throwing program soon like everyone else," said Maholm, the
Pirates' first-round draft pick in 2003. "I should be 100 percent by spring
training." (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)
Adam Wainwright STL ... ready to go :
" ... My arm feels great. I am throwing hard
and throwing long, so everything should be good to go,” he said. “I would love
to spend more time (with the Cardinals’ pitchers). Those guys have a lot to
offer me. Last year, Matt Morris and Woody (Williams) really took me under their
wing. That’s very special for a young guy like me.” ... “I
would never say anything to downplay (the Cardinals starting pitchers). They’re
established big league pitchers,” Wainwright said. “At the same time, I would be
shorting myself going in thinking that I couldn’t make that team.”
(Quad-City Times)
David Luciani, Baseball Notebook, continues his look at some possible
economical picks, including a probable starter in the MIL rotation :
" ... Jose Capellan: I love this guy's
stuff. He throws as hard as any prospect around, harder than those who get top
billing, and the Brewers are anxious to immediately show that they got something
of value for Danny Kolb, which they did. If Capellan had better rotation
security, I would list him here as #1 or #2 because he's ready right now, will
help your team strikeouts but probably won't win too many because of the team he
now plays for. When his name comes up in the auction, don't you dare let him go
for $1. I'm assuming his disastrous cup of coffee with Atlanta will temper
everyone's bidding and you'll be able to get him cheap."
Josh Hamilton ? An interesting piece on Hamilton's progress in the
St.
Petersburg Times (Marc Topkin).
" ... Hamilton, 23, has made what appear to be
significant changes to get his life back in order. He is married with a
3-year-old stepdaughter and a baby on the way. He has moved away from the
parents that were omnipresent in his life and found tremendous support and
kinship in a father-in-law who happens to run a ministry that counsels teens and
athletes on the dangers of drug abuse. He attends Alcoholics Anonymous meetings
and private counseling sessions on a regular basis. He speaks to youth groups.
He gives hitting lessons to little kids. "It all starts with the program I'm
in," Hamilton said from North Carolina. "I tell myself I'm not going to drink or
do drugs for a 24-hour period, and I can do that. And each day I start a new 24
hours." Now he hopes to get back his career with the Devil Rays. Hamilton's
one-year drug-related suspension that was due to end March 18 was quietly
extended by Major League Baseball through the 2005 season because of additional
violations. But Hamilton has shown enough progress that MLB officials have told
him that if he continues to stay sober, there is a chance he will be reinstated
during the season."
" ... I've got my fingers crossed," Devil Rays
managing general partner Vince Naimoli said. "His family situation has really
helped. He married into a wonderful family and they're giving him support. I'm
going to keep praying for him." Hamilton said he works out every day, and if he
gets the chance to come back, he still can be every bit as good as once
promised. "Even better," he said. "I ain't never hit a ball like I am now.
Physically and mentally, it's going good."
John Sickels,
ESPN.com, on Jason Lane HOU :
" ... Despite his small amount of playing
time, his numbers (.272 BA, .348 OBP, .463 SLG) are right on target with what
his MLEs (Major League Equivalent averages) indicate. He has 232 career at-bats
now, with a .280/.351/.526 line, and I don't think that's a fluke. If someone
gave Lane 500 at-bats, he'd hit .275-.290, with a .340-.360 OBP and a SLG in the
upper .400s at least, perhaps right at .500. He's a fine player, and while he is
not Beltran, the Astros could do a lot worse than give Lane a full-time job."
13/14 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Ruben Rivera, just might win a backup spot somewhere with
his winter season (.295, 13 homers, 10 SBs in the regular season) 2-4, 2 homers
... Alex Cintron ARZ 3-4 ... Robinson Cano NYA 1-2,
3 walks
John Sickles is being dropped from the ESPN roster. The ace of the
"prospectors" sent out a note yesterday informing folks of the depressing news.
It is hoped he'll find a new home in time for the 2005 season. In the
meantime, John's annual prospect book is just about ready to be shipped.
In one of his last pieces for ESPN, John looks at
the Mets' Lastings Milledge, who with the Mets' acquisition of Carlos
Beltran, seems destined for somewhere other than CF :
" ... Milledge is an excellent athlete, owner of all
five of the baseball tools. His speed and strength both rate as much better than
average. On offense, he generates excellent bat speed due to lightning-quick
wrists. He shows power to all fields, and his home run production should
increase as he matures ... Defensively, Milledge features a right field
arm and center field range ... does have some weaknesses. His plate
discipline is unimpressive ... can be inconsistent with the glove ...
Given a normal development curve, he projects as a .280-plus hitter with
double-digit home run and steal production all the way up the ladder. Milledge
has the physical ability to be a superstar, if he can develop the skills to go
with his tools ... Milledge has the best overall potential of any prospect in
the Mets farm system, and one of the highest pure physical ceilings in the game
overall. If he can develop the skills to go with his tools, he can be a star."
Dayn Perry, FoxSports, has
the second installment in his Top 100 (81 to 90) and there are at least of
couple of interesting sleepers :
" ... 84. Michael Bourn ... Philly's
center fielder of the future, although it's possible that Greg Golson could
challenge him for that honor. He has good leadoff skills — speed on the bases
and an ability to work counts and get on base. In the Sally League this past
season, Bourn posted a .430 OBP and drew 84 walks against 410 at bats ...
performance in the Sally League was quite strong, but not overwhelming for a
college-trained hitter."
... 86. George Kottaras ...
has excellent plate discipline and a compact swing that generates surprising
power. Kottaras needs work defensively, but the organization intends to be
patient with him in that regard. A Canadian who didn't play a great deal of
baseball growing up, Kottaras nonetheless shows impressive tools. He's one to
watch in the upcoming season."
All the Top 100s
now updated. Also, the 40-man rosters &
NRIs updated (with a couple of teams still to make
some cuts to accommodate recent signings). If you note any
errors/omissions please let me know.
Rays said to be close to signing their No. 1 pick, Jeff Niemann :
" ... Niemann's signing may be spurred by the Mets'
signing this week of No. 3 overall pick Phil Humber, a teammate of Niemann's at
Rice University ... Rays general manager Chuck LaMar and Niemann's agent,
Casey Close, all along have expressed optimism that the deal would get done for
the No. 4 overall pick ... LaMar is scheduled to travel to Houston later
this week to speak face-to-face with Niemann and his family about making a deal.
Niemann still has the option to re-enroll at Rice, but he won't play baseball
for the Owls." (Tampa Tribune)
Jeremy Reed, at least a chance to open as the SEA CFer :
" ... Based on what he did last year, Reed's
competing for that job in spring training. He doesn't have to go out and have a
great spring to win it," Hargrove said, perhaps tipping his hand. "But it will
make it tougher on me and on him and on everybody if he goes out and has a bad
spring. "I'm counting on him being on the club and on him playing center field
for us. But it's not like Ichiro. With Ichiro, I can say right now he's the
right fielder and he's the leadoff hitter. With a young kid like Reed, I can't
say that. We'll have to see." (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)
The LA hype begins ... Dioner Navarro, with an outside chance of MLB time
this season :
" ... In Navarro, 21 next month, DePodesta acquired
a line drive switch-hitter and an athletic receiver who has been compared to
Ivan Rodriguez. "In Dioner Navarro, we feel like we were able to acquire one of
the top catching prospects in the game," said DePodesta. "He's a stellar
defender who can hit the ball to all fields from either side of the plate ...
Publicly, the club doesn't say Navarro is expected to be the starting catcher.
But incumbent David Ross is coming off a poor second season, Bako is a
journeyman and Russell Martin, the best catching prospect in the system, has not
played beyond Class A. So Navarro figures to get plenty of spring playing time
to see if he's ready."
" ... began the year at Trenton and hit
.271 (69-for-255) in 70 games before earning a promotion to Columbus. In 40
games with the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate, he batted .250 (34-for-136). He
threw out 33 percent of runners attempting to steal off him and committed just
seven errors in 95 games behind the plate in 2004. Entering the 2004 season,
Navarro was rated as the top prospect in the Yankees organization by Baseball
America. In four seasons of professional baseball, Navarro has compiled a .277
average, including a combined .321 mark (130-for-405) in 2003 while splitting
time with Class A Tampa and Double-A Trenton." (MLB.com)
Phils phenom likely to get time with the big boys after all :
" ... Phillies assistant general manager Mike
Arbuckle said that the organization has changed its mind and likely will invite
left-hander Cole Hamels to big-league spring training. The organization’s top
pitching prospect missed much of 2004 with elbow soreness, but had an impressive
season in the Florida Instructional League and is expected to start 2005 in
Double-A Reading." (Delaware County Daily Times)
For in-depth reports on the TEX kids, hard to beat
Mike Hindman's analysis at The Newberg Report. Now posted -- the
second part of his look at the Rangers' pitching prospects. Matt
Lorenzo (No. 16) among them :
" ... I’m not quite sure what to make of Matt
Lorenzo yet. For every number that dazzles--his strikeout rate, for
example--there is another to counterbalance your excitement with a dampening
effect--his relatively high batting averages, for example. He’s great in one
statistical column, horrible in the next. Great one month, horrible the next.
Great in one start, horrible in the next. I’m not down or out on this kid, but
I’m not sold on him either. Lorenzo dominated the MWL for a month (1.35 ERA in
20 April innings) and then fell apart completely (5.19 ERA in 26 May frames) ...
He went to the AFL and posted a 2.63 ERA, but opposing hitters got to him at a
.308 clip. The Kent State alum can be overpowering and is a confirmed strike
zone pounder, racking up 105 K’s while walking only 24 in 80 MWL innings; 39 K’s
and 11 walks in 43 Cal League frames. Lorenzo ... is pure power, featuring
a mid-90's four-seam fastball, a two-seamer and an inconsistent, but often
devastating curve. He continues to struggle with the offspeed pitch ...
Lorenzo will be given every chance to move up quickly as a starter, but right
now he profiles as a closer or a setup guy. He should return to the Cal League
where he will hold down a spot in the Bakersfield rotation, but will see Frisco
at some point next summer, possibly as a reliever."
12 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Jose Reyes NYN 3-4 ... Freddy Guzman SD 2-4
Hmmm ... all those moves in ARZ (especially with Green, possibly Brynes coming
in) ... what's it do for the futures of Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Scott
Hairston et al ? Bryan
Smith, Wait Til Next year, has some thoughts:
" ... It’s not a terrible prediction to see
Green, Gonzalez and Glaus needing to move to first in the coming years, which
could be disastrous for a team that has all three until 2007 (Glaus until ‘08).
Furthermore, this currently blocks the Diamondbacks’ two best prospects,
Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin ... both are marquee
prospects for this organization. The problem, is they were once thought to be
the future corner outfielders in the Arizona desert. My guess is that Gonzalez
or Green will be the player most likely to move to first, opening up the RF spot
for Quentin, or if he falls, Josh Kroeger or Jon
Zeringue. This really hurts the D-Back future for Jackson and Chad
Tracy. What that projected lineup will not block, however, is the future for
Sergio Santos and Stephen Drew. My guess is that not
only does Drew get signed, but then moved to center, where he’ll ultimately be
Byrnes’ successor in center. Santos will take over for Royce Clayton in 2006,
though it’s entirely plausible that he will one day shift somewhere for
Justin Upton. That’s a situation left for re-evaluation come June."
Mike Hindman, The Newberg Report, on Chris Young TEX :
" ... His dramatic turnaround was the result
of his own hard work with Frisco pitching coach Steve Luebber ... he just
watched him for three or four starts and then went to work, accentuating the
6'10" right hander’s length by increasing his stride and lengthening his arm
action. These changes in Young’s delivery apparently did three things: (1) added
a great deal of velocity (he threw in the 86-88 range as an Expos prospect in
2003, roughly 88-90 when he debuted with Frisco, and sat at 95-96 by the time he
reached Texas); (2) probably improved his curve (the version he threw against
major leaguers was an altogether different pitch than the one he was throwing
against Texas Leaguers in June and July); and (3) created an angle on his
pitches that no hitter has ever seen ... this change in his delivery, and
continued improvement of his circle change, probably explains the fact that,
post-Frisco, he became far more effective against lefties than right handers.
"Chris started to add velocity, but more importantly," said Luebber, "he threw
more strikes. Eventually, he kept the ball down more consistently and finished
off his pitches better. He was going to be a five or six inning guy unless he
became more consistent because he got behind so much, but by the time he left us
[in Frisco], we felt that he was ready to be more than that." ... After
inking a three year deal major league deal in order to keep him from jumping on
a contract offer from the Sacramento Kings, Young will be given every chance to
win a spot in the Rangers rotation this year. He’ll have to make a dramatic
improvement against right handed hitters to hold onto his spot."
Paul
Colbert, TigersCentral, has his take on the Detroit Top 10. Not one of
the best farm systems, but a couple with a chance to contribute as early as this
season :
" ... 1. (2004 ranking - 6) Curtis Granderson
... Breakout year in Erie and followed up with a steady performance in the
AFL. Don’t be surprised if he starts in CF opening day for Detroit. If he
doesn’t, he’s just fine tuning his game in Toledo."
" ... 2.(2004 ranking - 1) Kyle Sleeth
... Less than impressive numbers in 2004 but Tigers were re-building his
mechanics. It appears that his transition was completed in the instructional
league. His first test will be as a starter at Erie."
Justin Verlander ranks No. 5.
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America, on the A's system in an interview on KNBR :
" ... Nick Swisher ... should be good
for 20 home runs ... .275 average and a whole bunch of walks, is going to
have an immediate impact."
" ... Joe Blanton ... his upside isn't
anywhere near close to that of Mulder or Hudson or Zito but it's hard to find
any pitching prospects who do have that kind of upside, there's just not a lot
of pitchers that good. He projects as a solid, inning-eating guy ... just
a big-bodied kid who throws a lot of strikes and he should be a real successful
guy ... when the prospect book comes out he'll be at No. 5 as we'll have Daric
Barton at No. 2 and Dan Meyer at No. 4."
" ... Omar Quintanilla ... he just knows how
to put the bat on the ball ... not a ton of power, not a lot of walks, all he
does is make contact. He's kind of an ideal number two hitter, defensively he's
probably better suited for second base ... the A's definitely see him as their
second baseman of the future and that can be as early as 2006."
Eric
Stephens, Baseball America, with a nice piece on USC catcher Jeff Clement,
likely first-rounder in the 2005 draft :
" ... Scouts from every major league team are
already sizing him up with an array of questions as they prepare reports for the
June draft. Can he handle hard stuff inside? How does he call games? How quick
is his release? Does he have big league power? What will it take for him to
sign? Why all the inquiries? Blessed with a quick swing and raw power out of a
thickly built frame, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound Clement will go into the 2005
season as a potential first-round pick after two strong seasons at USC and a
couple of impressive summers with Team USA. "The thing that jumps out is he's a
lefthanded-hitting catcher with power," one National League scout said. "The
ball jumps off his bat. I've seen him do it with wood and there's no difference.
He's attacking the pitch rather than just making contact."
Maybe Jason Dubois will get a shot after all. Cubs general manager
Jim Hendry suggests he'd be just fine with the young slugger :
" ... If the Cubs go into the season with a left
field platoon of left-handed-hitting perennial backup Todd Hollandsworth and
rookie Jason Dubois, a right-handed hitter, it may not sit well with Cubs fans
who had loftier visions. But Hendry said he would be comfortable with those two
... Dubois hit 31 homers and drove in 99 runs in 109 games for Triple-A
Iowa. He closed out the season with the parent club by blasting a triple and a
homer and driving in four runs in the last contest against Atlanta. He also
belted 10 homers in 42 games in winter ball in Mexico. "What else do you have to
do in the minor leagues or winter ball to get a chance?" Hendry said. "Sometimes
we assume there is going to be a marquee name player available in every spot.
The best alternative isn't always buying this guy or getting that guy. "Dubois
hit 31 home runs last year in Iowa, and that included being up here (in the
majors) for 28 games. If he would have stayed in Iowa, he would have been a
40-plus guy. It might be his time to introduce himself to the big leagues."
(Daily Southtown)
11 January, 2005
Days getting longer ... February 17th -- Voluntary reporting date for
pitchers, catchers and injured players.
Seth Trachtman, SportsBlurb,
likes Josh Barfield and Tim Stauffer as the best of the San Diego
prospects :
" ... Barfield ... You can still make an
argument that this is the top second base prospect in the game. He had a down
year in Double-A last season, hitting just .248-18-90 with 28 doubles. Though,
keep in mind that he was younger than most of the competition at age 21 and
suffered through some injuries. Strikeouts are a concern, but Barfield has the
defense to stay at second base and the hitting ability to be as good as Jeff
Kent if he fulfills all of his potential."
" ... To say that Stauffer is a disappointment
after being selected fourth overall in the 2003 draft would not be an
overstatement, but he still has a chance to be a middle of the rotation starter
in the majors ... Between three levels, including Triple-A, Stauffer
posted a 2.89 ERA. So why is he a disappointment? His K/9 of just 6.1 could be a
major red flag as he moves up to the majors. Do keep in mind that Stauffer has
always been more of a control pitcher, and the Padres are extremely happy with
his progress considering his shoulder issue in 2003. A rotation spot late this
season is a small possibility."
MLB.com reports the Mets have signed first-round pick Phil Humber.
" ... The former Rice hurler will be in New
York on Tuesday to take a physical upon which the deal is contingent. Terms of
the contract aren't known, but Humber is expecting to be at the club's minicamp
Wednesday. The club did not confirm the deal because, as is its policy, doesn't
comment on a player's contractual status until a physical is passed. "We reached
an agreement this morning, and I'm leaving here [Texas] in a little while to go
to New York for my physical," said Humber, who was chosen with the third overall
pick in the 2004 draft. "It was very important to get this deal done before
Spring Training. It's the start of a new season, and I want to start when
everyone else does. I didn't want to be dragging around. I started throwing
right around Christmas, so I'm in good shape." The 6-foot-4, 210-pound Humber, a
Carthage, Texas, native, went 13-4 for Rice in 2004, posting a 2.27 ERA in 20
games (15 starts). Most impressive, however, were his 154 strikeouts in 115
innings. He finished his college career with a 35-8 record."
Dioner Navarro ... a shot in LA this season ?
" ... he'll turn 21 next month. He was the heir
apparent to Yankees catcher Jorge Posada but now he could be on the fast track
to Los Angeles. At 5-10, he may be a little undersized, although "Pudgito" has
drawn comparisons to Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, who is 5-9. Navarro hit .271 in 255
at-bats at Class AA and then .250 in 136 at-bats at Class AAA. He combined for
four homers. He'll start the season at Class AAA and could join the Dodgers by
June." (USAToday)
Rob
Blackstien, CREATiVESPORTS, on the coming kiddie corps in MIL :
" ... I can’t see Overbay holding off Fielder
for long, assuming Prince can adapt to AAA and ultimately the majors. Overbay
just will never hit for big time HR power and that seems to be prototype for a
successful first baseman. If the Brewers had power sources from unlikely
positions (like catcher, second base or short) they could probably afford to
have a doubles hitter at first. But I believe Milwaukee’s big plan is to have
everyone come up at once. They’d like to have the team of the future mature
together in like 2006 or 2007 (Palmisano at catcher, Fielder at
first, Weeks at second, Hardy at short, ? at third, and an
outfield of Lee, Hart and Kryznel)."
In going back to Mike Gullo's Top 100 at
The Minors First, intrigued by some of the picks in the bottom 50. Some real
talent here :
" ... 60. Chris Nelson ... COL ...
the first of three players on this list from the 2004 draft class. There's
nothing he can't do offensively and he looks like a plus fielder at shortstop to
boot ... seems to have the right combination of makeup, tools and baseball
skills where stardom seems like it's just a matter of time."
" ... 71. Chris Snyder ... Got his first
taste of the Majors last summer and is primed to take over as the D-Backs
starting catcher… Koyie Hill or no Koyie Hill. Snyder can hit some long balls
and is very solid across the board defensively. Don't look for more than a .260
average, but what he does offer more than makes up for that. He's one of the
more underrated players in the Minors."
" ... 95. Billy Butler ... I'm usually very
conservative about ranking short-season players on this list (and Butler is only
1 of 2 on this year's list). He was drafted for his bat and he hit beyond
anyone's expectations in the Pioneer League. You have to love his power and even
more, his ability to draw walks (57 in just 260 AB). He may not stay at third,
but looks to have the bat to play anywhere."
10 January, 2005
Winter ball -- Bill Pulsipher 7.0 4 0 0 1 3 ... Yadier Molina STL 2-4, double
... Miguel Cabrera 2-4, homer & 3-4, double, homer ... Fernando Nieve HOU 2.2 8 7 4 0 4 ...
Jose Lima
7.2 5 2 2 2 1 ... Francisco Campos 7.0 4 1 1 4 6 ... Alex
CIntron ARZ 2-4, homer
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, with notes on some of those who may have improved
their status with their winter ball performances :
Dominican : " ... Robinson Cano, 2B ...
Often rumored to be in trade talks, it looks like Cano will stay with the
Yankees, for now. He certainly didn't hurt his value by hitting .313 for
Estrellas, good for seventh in the league."
Mexico : " ... Jason Dubois ...
could compete for the Cubs' left field job this spring, showed good pop during
his stint with Mazatlan. The 2003 Arizona Fall League MVP homered 10 times in
144 at-bats for a .535 slugging percentage. He also struck out 53 times, but the
power was legit, as was his .372 OBP."
Puerto Rico : " ... Byron Gettis
... Tigers might have found a steal when they picked Gettis up off waivers
from the Royals. The 24-year-old outfielder was fourth in Puerto Rico with a
.347 average and fourth with a .432 OBP. He'll try to use that as a springboard
to a big league job in Detroit's outfield this spring."
Venezuela : " ... Yusmeiro Petit ...
As if pitching at three levels during the 2004 season wasn't enough, the
20-year-old Petit continued on through the winter season. After storming his way
from low-A all the way to Double-A and onto everyone's prospect radar, Petit
finished third in the regular Venezuelan season with a 2.15 ERA over 50 1/3
innings for Magallanes. He also was second with 53 strikeouts against just eight
walks, a ratio right in line with his 200 K/41 BB regular-season performance. Of
course, he's now thrown a combined total of 189 2/3 innings during the season
and winter ball. Think the Mets are glad Magallanes didn't make the playoffs?."
" ... Franklin Gutierrez ...
missed a large chunk of time due to injury during the 2004 season, so he was
looking to make up for lost time with Caracas, which finished the regular season
with the best record in the league. Gutierrez finished third in the league with
13 homers (tops for Caracas), second with 29 extra-base hits and fifth in
slugging (.553), showing the kind of power prospect-watchers hoped he'd
develop."
An
encouraging sign for at least one of the Pirates' walking wounded :
" ... Sean Burnett could take a step forward
next week in his comeback from reconstructive left elbow surgery. Burnett is one
of 28 pitchers on the list to attend optional mini-camp, and he could begin a
light throwing program for the first time since having surgery in September."
" ... John Van Benschoten, the team's
first-round draft pick in 2001, had surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder
earlier this winter and may be behind the other starting pitchers in his
off-season throwing program. The Pirates don't want Van Benschoten to throw
until he has full range of motion in both of his shoulders. Ironically, it was
right shoulder stiffness that kept Van Benschoten off the mound for the final
two weeks of his rookie season." (Pittsburgh Tribune Review)
More Spring Training invites ... Texas opens it up to a lot of kids ... Mike Nickeas,
Joaquin Arias, Ian Kinsler, John Danks and
Thomas Diamond
among those to get some time in the major league camp.
One more import from Korea, via Japan ... Mets signed lefty reliever Dae-Sung Koo, 35.
Jim Albright, BaseballGuru,
looking at his last four years in Japan, doesn't like his chances for success
(given his 2005 MLB equivalency figures) :
YEAR G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA
2001 59 7 9 0 146.1 120 20 88 146 87 78 4.82
2002 25 6 6 0 169.1 152 19 58 147 84 74 3.93
2003 22 3 11 0 131.2 163 33 63 121 128 120 8.17
2004 21 5 10 0 138.0 138 36 57 107 110 102 5.64
He's 35, and while the strikeouts per innings pitched are fine,
the home run numbers are awful. Combine that with at least a hit an inning in
the last two years, and you've got quite high projected ERAs. I'd pass.
And, OAK reported to be chasing 36-year-old Japanese right-hander
Keiichi Yabu .
David Luciani, Baseball Notebook, has the first installment of his "players
of interest" those, who before the explosion of baseball information, might have
been "sleepers". Among his picks for 2005 :
" ... Russ Adams : The Jays have no
other option here as they're not going to let newly-acquired John McDonald play
and they let Chris Woodward leave. Adams isn't as good a hitter, for average, as
we saw in his brief trial, but among players without a track record, he has one
of the most secure jobs going into 2005 and should be a good bet to score 70
runs and maybe knock in 50 as it looks like he could be the leadoff hitter."
" ... Brad Hawpe : A few years back I
was pretty high on this fellow but he never broke through and even now, isn't
necessarily guaranteed a spot in the lineup. It does look like he may end up in
the better half of a platoon in right field and even if he plays a half season,
he has big-time power that will only be further enhanced by playing half of his
games in Colorado. If he were to win a full-time job in spring training, I'd
likely be listing him here first or second as you need to take a close look at
this guy for 2005."
08/09 January, 2005
Winter ball .... ooops, maybe there won't be a Spring Training invite for
Ariel Prieto 2.1 8 6 6 3 0 ... Jose Castillo PIT 2-4, homer
... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 2-5 ... Tony Armas WAS
6.0 8 2 2 1 5 ... Juan Rivera ANA 1-3, triple, 2 RBI ... Kendry
Morales ANA 0-2, walk
After a short break over the holidays,
Seth Trachtman, SportsBlurb, is back with
a Dodgers' Top 10. Shortstop Joel Guzman heads the deep system,
topping Chad Billingsley for No. 1.
" ... With B.J. Upton graduating to the majors,
Guzman is the shortstop in the minors. It took him a few years to produce
in pro ball after being signed out of the Dominican, but now all seems worth the
wait. At the age of 19, between High-A and Double-A last season, Guzman hit
.298-23-86 with nine steals. Plate discipline is a problem, but let's give him a
break. After all, he was facing significantly older competition last season. At
the moment, he projects as a player comparable to Miguel Tejada."
" ... Billingsley is the new flavor of the
week amongst Dodgers high school draftees. The scouting report includes mid-90s
heat and a curveball. The results show the sheer quality of those two offerings.
The 20-year-old posted a 2.38 ERA in High-A last season before his call-up to
Double-A, where he had an equally impressive 2.95 ERA over eight starts. A
strikeout rate at 10.0 K/9 and above shows his dominance potential, but he did
walk more than a hitter every other inning at both levels. That means he could
use more development time, and DePodesta's conservative approach with prospects
should allow just that."
John Sickels,
ESPN.com, on Eric Duncan NYA and Nate Schierholtz SF :
" ... Duncan is the best prospect in the Yankees
system ... Although his numbers in '04 don't look spectacular on the surface (16
homers, .258 average combined at two levels), he knocked 43 doubles, drew 69
walks, and impressed the Yankees with his defensive progress at third base. His
OPS was 17 percent above league average in both the Midwest and Florida State
Leagues, very credible performance for a guy who was only 19 years old. With
Alex Rodriguez at third base, Duncan will probably end up moving over to first
eventually, if he isn't traded first. I gave him a B+ in my 2005 book."
" ... A second-round pick in 2003 ...
Schierholtz combined to hit .295 with 40 doubles, nine triples, and 18 homers
this year, splitting between two levels of A-ball ... I do have some
concerns. He fanned 93 times while drawing just 33 walks, and plate discipline
will be an issue for him against advanced pitching. Some scouts don't think
he'll be able to remain at third base, and project a move to the outfield, which
will increase the pressure for him to hit ... Schierholtz is quite young, not
turning 21 until next month, and scouts insist he has excellent bat speed and
will be able to make any needed adjustments. Given his youth, that is probably
true ... For now, he is a very intriguing prospect with a high upside and good
long-term potential, a classic Grade B prospect."
Angels giving lots of kids a shot in Spring Training ... among the ST
invitees, Erick Aybar, Nick Gorneault, Howie
Kendrick, Mike Napoli ... already guaranteed ST spots (by
virtue of 40-man spots) Chris Bootcheck, Alberto Callaspo,
Maicer Izturis, Casey Kotchman, Jeff
Mathis, Dallas McPherson, Kendry Morales,
Dustin Moseley, Juan Rivera, Ervin Santana,
Steven Shell.
07 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Kendry Morales ANA 1-3, double ... David Ross LA
1-3, homer ...
Dayn Perry, FOXSports.com,
has kicked off his Top 100 with the initial posting (the bottom 10) which
features at least a couple of guys who could zoom up the charts with solid 2005
seasons :
" ... 94. Wes Bankston ... In his first pro season,
Bankston led the Appy League in homers, but he struggled last season after a
promotion to the Sally League. In '04, he was back at Charleston and this time
performed much better, drawing 73 walks and slugging .513. He has a strong arm
in right, and scouts think he could be a 30-homer guy at the highest level ...
redeemed himself in 2004 and showed broad hitting skills. He's back on the
radar."
" ... 95. Tony Giarratano ... has done at
least something well at all three levels at which he's played. In the
short-season NY-Penn League, he batted .328 and showed good gap power. This past
season at West Michigan of the Midwest League, he posted a strong walk rate and
.383 OBP, and after a promotion to the Florida State League, Giarratano batted
.376 and slugged .505. He also has good speed on the bases and is polished
defensively. So far so good, and with a strong season in Double-A, he'll be much
higher on this list next year."
Ah, an interesting question. Mark Prior or Felix Hernandez ?
Jim Callis,
Baseball America, responds :
" ... Hernandez at 18 (2004) and Prior at 21 (2002)
were in their first full seasons of pro ball. Hernandez dominated a high Class A
hitters' league and pitched well in Double-A, while Prior had no problems
adapting to the majors after just nine minor league starts. Given that he was
three years younger and just two levels behind Prior, you could argue that
Hernandez was more advanced for his age. There's not much to separate the two.
Both had mid-90s fastballs, and if I had to pick one I'd take Prior's because
his command is a little better. Both had above-average curveballs, with
Hernandez' a little more devastating. Both showed signs of having plus
changeups, though not yet on a consistent basis. For extra credit, Hernandez
also had a slider that's reputed to be his best pitch—but the Mariners wouldn't
let him throw it because he didn't really need it and they didn't want to reduce
his risk of injury. Both had exceptional command for young pitchers with
electric stuff, with Prior rating a slight edge. Prior also had a slightly
taller and stronger frame, as well as nearly picture-perfect mechanics. Because
he was younger and less physically developed, Hernandez had more projection
remaining. Both had strong makeups and work ethics. Add it all up, and I'd take
Prior over Hernandez because he had proven himself at a higher level (in part
because he was three years older) and he's a slightly better bet to stay
healthy."
2005 Projections ... hitters and pitchers ...
Dan Szymborski,
baseballthinkfactory has SF, SD & SD posted ... just three teams left to go
... so far the leading picks for 2005 -- Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Todd Helton
... Mark Prior, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez
06 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Jose Castillo PIT 2-6, double ... Hector
Gimenez HOU 2-5, double, homer ... Ismael Ramirez TOR 3.1 6 4
4 1 5 ... Rick Guttormson SEA, who had such a great regular
season, not enjoying the playoffs, 0.0 1 3 3 2 0 ... Juan Cruz OAK 6.0 4
1 1 3 8 ... Kendry Morales ANA, not in the starting lineup, 0-1 ... maybe
this kid Jose Offerman is a prospect (remember when he was THE guy at SS)
3-4, double, homer
Diamond
Futures, Michael Laureano
does a wrap on his pre-season lists with his overall Top 100 giving the nod to
SEA's Felix Hernandez as the king of the hill. The Top 10 :
1. Hernandez Felix 6. Everts Clint
2. Wright David 7. Stewart Ian
3. Upton B.J. 8. Jimenez Cesar
4. Barton Daric 9. Petit Yusmeiro
5. Duke Zach 10. Milledge Lastings
All the Top 100 lists
here.
John Sickels,
ESPN.com, on Dioner Navarro NYA-ARZ-LA :
" ... Thought to be New York's best prospect a year
ago at this time, Navarro's status suffered in '04, thanks to an erratic season.
But the 21-year old Venezuelan is still considered one of the better catching
prospects in the game, with a good mixture of defensive and offensive skills ...
a line-drive hitter at this point. He has a short and compact stroke from both
sides of the plate. He doesn't have a lot of home run power, since his swing is
level and not tailored for loft. He hits quite a few doubles, and more home runs
may come eventually. Navarro shows good command of the strike zone and will take
a walk if offered ... Given a normal growth curve, he projects as a
.265-.285 hitter at maturity. It is unclear how much power he will have. Right
now it doesn't look like he'll hit more than 10-15 homers a season, but some
observers believe he could do better than that eventually. Power or no, he
should hit for average and post a good OBP, assuming he remains patient."
At
The Newberg Report, Mike Hindman has posted his detailed reports on the top
pitching prospects in the Texas organization. Juan Dominguez
takes the top spot with Thomas Diamond as the runner-up (over
John Danks) :
" ... The Dominican right-hander continues to
wield what is probably the single best pitch in the entire system–a devastating
change–and his fastball can be (and usually is) a plus pitch. Those two pitches
look identical coming out of Dominguez’s hand (and, actually, both look
like they are going to be changeups due to of his molasses-slow delivery).
Dominguez appears to be full of self confidence as well. He still struggles with
a breaking ball after junking his weak slider in favor of a developing a slurvy
thing that showed promise at times last year ... still a long way from
understanding how to pitch ... There is little doubt: Dominguez profiles
as a starter, and arguably an ace ... The upside here is so enormous that I am
still willing to overlook the fact that something about Dominguez reminds me of
Juan Gonzalez, and not in a good way. He has shown enough to allow us to believe
that he has the pure talent to handle big league hitters and so Dominguez should
(better!) hold down a spot in the Rangers rotation all year. He might very well
establish himself as one of the most important young starters in the game."
" ... At 6'2" and a solid 230,
Diamond draws physical comparisons to Roger Clemens and there are a variety
of reports that Diamond can be found throwing harder in the seventh inning than
he did in the first. In the wake of his first professional season, scouts gave
the slider lukewarm reviews and were generally unable to decide which breaking
ball had the better chance of developing into a big league pitch. At this point,
Diamond lacks a quality third pitch. Statistically, you couldn’t have expected
more out of Diamond’s professional debut ... will begin the season in
Frisco, consistent with John Hart’s publicly stated philosophy of pushing
prospects. Buck Showalter hinted to the Star-Telegram’s Randy Galloway earlier
this winter that there is some thought that Diamond might see the big leagues
this year. If he masters the Texas League, he should stop off in Oklahoma for
four or five starts and I would not be surprised if he arrives in Arlington by
August."
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, on a couple of the prospects on the move -- David
Pauley from SD to BOS and Dan Meyer, ATL to OAK :
" ... Heading into the 2004 season, Pauley had the highest
upside of all the Padres' minor-league arms ... But Pauley was a touch
inconsistent in the high-A California League this past season. He finished with
a 4.17 ERA and 60 walks in 153 1/3 innings, though his 128 strikeouts were
second best in the organization. Pauley's best pitch is his curve, and he also
is developing a changeup that complements a sinking fastball that still could
gain velocity. In all likelihood, the 21-year-old will head to Double-A for his
third full season of pro ball in 2005."
" ... When the Braves took Meyer in the first round of the
2002 draft, they were hoping to get an Eric Milton-type left-handed starter. So
far, Meyer has lived up to that expectation. He's a strong body who will eat up
some innings, and many consider him to be one of the top two or three minor
league starters, in terms of stuff. Meyer brings a career 2.71 ERA and a
four-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio to the A's, and he'll be given every
opportunity to win a job at the back end of their rotation in 2005."
05 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Manny Aybar (Mets NRI) fronted a one-hitter, 5.2 1 0 0 3
7 ... Eric Brynes 2-4, double ... Jose Reyes NYN
0-4, 2 Ks
In
the Baseball
America chat room, Aaron Fitt, with some notes on his NATS prospect picks :
Bill Bray as a starter : " ... One reason the Nationals have
experimented with Bray as a starter is simply to get him more innings. He hasn't
pitched a lot over the last four to five years, so the more innings he gets, the
better ... Bray has a chance of sticking as a starter if he really thrives in
the role, but chances are he'll end up back in the bullpen eventually, where he
can be a dominant late-innings guy."
Clint Everts : " ... When Everts
returns, he should be even better than he has been since he was drafted. His
velocity will increase to a level he has not shown since his high school days,
and a low-90s fastball to go along with his plus-plus curveball and plus-plus
changeup will make him vicious. But 2006 is probably too optimistic a timetable
for his arrival. Chances are he'll spend the bulk of '06 in Double-A, maybe get
a September callup, and compete for a rotation spot in 2007."
Michael Hinckley : " ...
Hinckley looks like a very safe bet to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the
majors, but he doesn't project as a No. 1 (Clint Everts is the only potential
No. 1 starter in the system). I would guess you will see Hinckley in the
rotation some time after the break."
Brendan Harris : " ... He
got temporarily blocked when the Nats signed Vinny Castilla to play third base,
but he could easily slide over to second if Jose Vidro is dealt. Biggio is an
interesting comparison - their offensive games are somewhat similar, as both are
good line-drive hitters with occasional pop, but Biggio has more speed than
Harris, and Harris probably has a stronger arm ... They still see Harris as a
likely utility player behind Castilla and Vidro, though he could also get a few
more at-bats in Triple-A."
Larry Broadway : " ... Broadway
has very good raw power, and with a few adjustments to his swing he can become a
solid everyday first baseman in the majors. I'm in the minority on this, but I
think he's an even better prospect than Ryan Howard, particularly because he's
an excellent defensive player to along with his offensive potential."
Hinckley might just begin the season with the NATS.
" ... Left-hander Zach Day (5-10, 3.93 ERA) is the front-runner for the
No. 4 spot in the rotation, with the final spot up for grabs between
right-handers John Patterson and Jon Rauch and top
left-handed prospect Mike Hinckley. "We don't want to spend money
on a stop-gap solution," Bowden said. "That doesn't make sense. We're
better off giving the ball to Mike Hinckley or John Patterson or Jon Rauch and
continuing to develop our young pitchers within. Our dollars are better spent on
player development and scouting and building the ballclub the right way."
(Washington Post)
Diamond
Futures, Michael Laureano
goes with the grain this time -- Felix Hernandez SEA as the best pitching
prospect in the game. Zach Duke PIT is the runner-up, over
Clint Everts WAS. Rounding out the top group -- Cesar
Jimenez SEA, Yusmeiro Petit NYN, Jeff Francis
COL, Justin German SD, Mike Burns HOU, Yorman
Bazardo FLO and Kyle Davies ATL.
A
sigh of relief from owners still counting on Rick Ankiel STL :
" ... According to Cardinals trainer Barry Weinberg,
Rick Ankiel's recent elbow "twinge" was as minor as originally hoped ...
Weinberg, through a team spokesman, said that the condition that bothered
Ankiel's left elbow was minor nerve irritation, and that the left-hander has
already been cleared to resume throwing. Ankiel is working out in Jupiter, Fla.,
where he makes his offseason home and where the Cardinals hold Spring Training."
(MLB.com)
Not so good news for Jose Lopez SEA owners. Mariners signs Pokey
Reese.
" ... [general manager Bill] Bavasi said Lopez could
one day fit into that mix but that the team was opting to be patient with the
22-year-old prospect ... "We really felt that Jose did a good job for us last
year in a tough situation, but we feel he could use another half-year to a year
developing his skills at the Triple-A level," Bavasi said. "Jose could still
find his way on the club, but offensively and defensively, he's got to work on a
little bit of everything." Bavasi said Lopez, who also saw some time at third
base, would work at second base and shortstop in the minors now that the team
has invested five years and $64 million in Beltre. "We all felt he needed a
little more time with the bat," Bavasi said of Lopez. "The game got a little
fast up here. Sometimes we forget just how young this guy is, and I think last
year he handled himself OK in a situation where we had to bring him up and get a
look at the young kids. But he is going to be a heck of a player and we know
he'll hit." (MLB.com)
04 January, 2005
Winter ball ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 1-4, homer ... Luis
Ugueto KC 3-4, triple
Aaron Fitt, Baseball America, likes Michael Hinckley as the tops of
the Washington prospects. The 6-3 lefty is described as among the best of
the lefty prospects in baseball. First baseman Larry Broadway is
the runner-up, ahead of outfielder Ryan Church. Fitt goes in
the chat room Tuesday afternoon for questions on the picks.
Melissa Lockard, Oakland
Clubhouse, reviews the abundance of A's catching prospects, including the
recently acquired Daric Barton.
" ... Closest to the Major Leagues: John Baker
... had an outstanding 2004 season, catapulting him to the top of the A’s
minor league catching depth chart. Baker, a 2002 draft pick, hit .280 with 15 HR
and 78 RBI in 117 games for Midland (AA). He was then promoted to Sacramento
(AAA), where he made a strong contribution in only 14 games played, hitting .347
with 10 RBI over that time. Baker may not be the most naturally talented catcher
in the A’s system, but he may the hardest working ... improving
defensively ... could very well slide into the back-up catching role as soon as
the second-half of 2005."
" ... Most Likely to be a Star Behind the Plate:
Landon Powell ... has drawn comparisons to another tall,
switch-hitting catcher: Jason Varitek. Powell has a strong arm and good receiver
skills behind the plate... plus power from both sides of the plate and a
good batting eye ... could be the A’s starting catcher as soon as 2007."
" ... Most Likely to be a Star, Period: Daric
Barton ... could very well be the best pure hitter in the A’s system. He is,
at the very least, the best pure hitter under the age of 20. Barton is a
left-handed hitting machine ... is still somewhat of a catching novice. He moves
well behind the plate, but his throwing has been hampered by right elbow surgery
... With so many other catching prospects in the Oakland system, the A’s
may choose to move Barton to first or to the outfield so that he can get to the
major leagues quicker."
The A's also have Jeremy Brown and Kurt
Suzuki sitting behind starter Jason Kendall.
At Diamond Futures, Michael Laureano
has just about wrapped up the pitching rankings (just the Top 50 remaining).
So far we know Renyl Pinto (56), David Bush (59), and
Travis Blackley (98) won't be among the elite.
Looks as if the Brewers are sticking to the plan to go with JJ Hardy at
shortstop :
" ... Some Brewers fans have expressed nervousness
over Melvin’s plan to go with rookie J.J. Hardy at shortstop next spring. Hardy
missed most of the 2004 season at Class AAA Indianapolis after undergoing
surgery on his left shoulder and played in only a handful of games in the
Mexican Winter League before returning home. The club brain-trust believes Hardy
is mentally tough enough to handle the challenge. They don’t expect him to excel
at the plate immediately but they do believe Hardy will do the job defensively.
" (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
Pirates' second sacker solidifies his standing with an impressive campaign in
Venezuela :
" ... Of the four members of the 40-man roster
playing winter ball, none has impressed [general manager Dave] Littlefield more
than second baseman Jose Castillo. His .363 batting average and .582
slugging percentage each ranks second in the Venezuelan League. In 51 games, he
has 11 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 33 RBIs. He has 11 errors,
too, but has spent time at third base and the outfield. "It's a positive he's
putting up the numbers he has," Littlefield said. "He's a player that will
improve. He has the talent." The Pirates have no plan to move Castillo from
second base."
Could a shortage of arms in SEA create an opportunity for Felix Hernandez?
Nah.
" ... Not long ago, the Mariners were among
baseball's most sought-after trading partners, thanks to their abundance of
up-and-coming young pitchers. The problem is, top prospects such as Clint
Nageotte and Travis Blackley came up last season and failed to
immediately deliver on their promise. That harmed the Mariners' own pitching
outlook and gave them less to trade with. Nageotte, Blackley and other young
pitchers will get their chance to break into the rotation during spring
training, but the Mariners are not counting on them ... A long shot
for the rotation would be right-hander Felix Hernandez, considered
by many the top pitching prospect in baseball. Hernandez, 18, pitched at Class
AA last season and will get a big-league spring training invitation as long as
he doesn't go against the team's wishes and pitch in winter ball at home in
Venezuela. But the team has been extraordinarily protective of the prospective
staff ace and would be unlikely to let him start the season in Seattle."
(Seattle Post-Intelligencer)
Hmmm ... The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ... could start a trend ... the
Hamilton Blue Jays of Toronto ... the Washington Nationals of Montreal ...
03 January, 2005
Winter ball into the playoffs ... Joe Dillon FLO 2-4, homer ...
Ariel Prieto 6.0 6 3 3 2 3 ... Fernando Nieve HOU 4.0 2
2 2 4 4 ... Marshall McDougall TEX 1-3, homer
Maybe soon.
If the Rockies can turn some promise into performance, maybe there will be some
help for Todd Helton. Seth
Trachtman, SportsBlurb, tackles the COL farm system and finds a pretty good
crop with third baseman Ian Stewart atop the chart, over lefty Jeff
Francis.
" ... You can make a strong argument for
Stewart being the top position prospect in the game. The 2003 first round
pick out of high school hit .319-30-101 with 19 steals in Low-A last season at
the age of 19. He draws walks relatively well, and his defense is excellent. The
only weakness is a slight strikeout problem, but that should not prevent him
from becoming one of the top third basemen in baseball in a few years."
" ... 4. Chris Nelson ...
Straight out of high school, Nelson hit .347-4-20 with six steals in 147 at-bats
at Rookie Level. The toolsy shortstop is arguably the top shortstop prospect in
the game now that B.J. Upton and Jose Lopez have graduated to the majors."
A twinge.
A cringe. But, STL says it's not serious. Rick Ankiel :
" ... Ankiel, 25, was throwing for the Carolina
Giants and nearing his final start for the team when he felt a pinch in the
elbow. He returned to the United States shortly before Christmas and met with a
Cardinals doctor. Nothing alarming was discovered, a team executive said. "I
think when he decided to leave Puerto Rico he felt a little twinge in his
elbow," said Cardinals assistant general manager John Mozeliak. "He had it
looked at, and he's getting some treatment for it. It's just a matter of
something that we'll follow up with him later in January. But it is nothing
severe." ... Including his 30-day rehab assignment through the minors, Ankiel
made 17 appearances in 2004, pitching 61 1/3 innings. He struck out 63, walked
10, compiled a 4-2 record (1-0 with the Cardinals) and a 2.64 ERA. The most he
pitched was during his time in Puerto Rico. "We think it was time well spent,"
Mozeliak said. "People we've spoken with, our scouts we've talked to, all said
he was pitching very well over there."
David Luciani, at Baseball Notebook, has his annual prospect lists posted
including the Top 100 hitters for each league. It's always an interesting
read, often particularly valuable in spotting potential "sleepers" and
exhibiting no fear of challenging "conventional" wisdom. At the top of the
AL list -- Delmon Young TB, Casey Kotchman ANA, and
Brandon Moss BOS :
" ... A former second baseman, Moss exploded
in 2004 to hit .339 with 13 home runs and 101 RBI at Single-A Augusta and then
followed it up by dominating at the more competitive Single-A Sarasota, hitting
.422 with 2 home runs over just 83 at bats at that level ... projects as
an eventual annual batting title contender with better home run power but fewer
doubles. His individual seasons may not be as exciting as some prospects ranked
lower than him but his overall career will be superior."
Jason Kubel MIN ranks No. 5, just
ahead of TEX shortstop Ian Kinsler (who finished a slot ahead of
TB's BJ Upton). In the NL it's Daric Barton
(then STL), Brian Dopriak CHN, David Wright NYN,
Ian Stewart COL and Lastings Milledge NYN. And, there's
a sleeper at No. 7 :
" ... George Kottaras, C, San Diego :
Easily one of the least known top prospects I'll list, Kottaras doesn't so much
have fantasy upside as I expect he's going to have a memorable career as a
consistent player who hits 10-20 home runs a year with 85-90 walks over many
seasons, for ten or fifteen years maybe. Twenty years from now, there will be
catchers much lower ranked here who had markedly better single seasons but I
believe Kottaras will be better remembered as having the more productive career
than these others. If your interest is a player's single best season more than
his career, Kottaras is one of those rare prospects where I'll tell you he is
not your man. In terms of the career I project, he's going to have a good one."
There are a few eye-openers in the pitching lists
... Felix Hernandez SEA didn't even make the AL Top 100 (ranked No. 17)
... and, in the NL, Matt Cain SF down at No. 65. David's top picks
-- Jose Capellan MIL in the NL and Scott Baker MIN in the AL :
" ... He's ready now, has a top fastball, one
of the best around in the majors or minors, and that he struggled in his brief
tryout with Atlanta last year shouldn't put you off. I only hope he ends up as a
starter ... Expect Capellan to be a valuable contributor no later than
2006 and he could easily end up in the rotation right out of spring training
this year if all goes well. Certainly the Brewers are anxious to show their fans
that they got something of immediate value for Danny Kolb."
" ... Baker ... already blessed with
exceptional control ... struggled after moving up to Triple-A Rochester in 2004,
which actually helps him go a bit unnoticed, and he's probably going to start
the season at that level but prior to that, he was eating up Double-A hitters,
allowing just 44 hits in 70.1 innings while walking 13 and striking out 72, this
all over 10 games started. Some other publications have said that he doesn't
have "dominant" stuff and I suspect this is because his strikeout numbers have
"only" been around one per inning, which is actually below your typical top
so-called top prospect. In fact, Baker's velocity, which still isn't in his
prime, has peaked in the mid to high nineties on occasion and what impresses me
about him is how well he mixes up his pitches. He already has a big league
slider and curve and he throws every pitch for strikes and changes speeds as
well as any pitcher I've seen in the minors in the past couple of years.
Definitely underrated, Baker's a rare sleeper that takes my number one prospect
spot in the American League this year."
Looking for prospect reports on specific teams? Another site to jot down
--
Gerry McDonald's Blue Jays site.
And, of course, for anything on the ATL system it's
Brad Dowdy at NoPepper.
01/02 January, 2005
 The
very best to all !
Mexico
-- Edgar Gonzalez ARZ 6.2 9 3 0 1 9, 3.41 ... Dan Johnson
OAK (at leadoff again) 0-2, .248 ... Fernando Valenzuela 6.0 1 0 0
1 1 ... Joe Dillon FLO, hot streak continues, 3-5, triple, 4 RBI,
.323
Puerto Rico -- Bill Simas, on the
comeback trail, 1.0 1 0 0 1 3 & 1.0 0 0 0 1 1, 0.49 (in 18 1/3 innings) ... Ruben
Gotay KC 1-3, triple, .223 ... Yadier Molina STL 1-4, 2nd homer, .275
Venezuela -- Jose Castillo PIT 2-4,
14th double, .364 ... Franklin Gutierrez CLE 1-5, 13th homer, .277
... and into playoff action -- Tony Armas WAS 5.0 3 0 0 1 7 ... Juan
Rivera ANA 2-4, double, homer, 3 RBI ... Jose Castillo PIT 1-4, homer
Dominican -- Kendry Morales ANA 0-2,
.280 ... Juan Cruz OAK 5 5 2 0 0 5, 4.42
Mike
Gullo, The Minors First, is right on cue -- his
5th Annual Top 100. A familiar name atop the list -- MIN catcher Joe
Mauer. SEA phenom Felix Hernandez zooms right to No. 2,
just ahead of ANA first sacker Casey Kotchman. Delmon
Young TB and Prince Fielder MIL run 4-5 with lefty Scott
Kazmir at No. 6 and righty Matt Cain SF at No. 7. A
pair of talented infielders at 8-9 :
" ... 8. Ian Stewart
... definitely one of the best prospects in the game. There's so much to like
about him. He has enormous power, good strike zone judgment, he runs
surprisingly well, plays the game hard and his Sally League manager raved about
his defense. The only knock I have on Stewart is that he's already too
pull-conscious."
" ... 9. Joel Guzman
... In 2004, we finally witnessed Guzman show why the Dodgers had been touting
him for years. Despite his young age, he dominated Florida State and Southern
League pitchers. On the downside, I'm still a little worried that him less than
stellar plate discipline might keep from being as good as he can be. While he's
more than just an adequate fielder at the moment, it's just a matter of time
till he fills out and we see him moved off shortstop. He is huge and has
tremendous power."
ATL's Andy Marte
rounds out the Top 10. A few other picks of note -- Daric Barton
OAK at No. 21 and Lastings Milledge NYN at No. 25 :
" ... Not many in the game can
match Milledge's tools package or ceiling. He's very fast, has a quick bat that
should produce plus power and he looks to become a good defender in center
field. The only thing I see holding him back from stardom is his mastering the
strike zone. I say the "only thing" holding him back, but that's a pretty big
and common obstacle that keeps many prospects from reaching their peak."
Dayn
Perry, FoxSports, takes a look at the PHI farm and likes Gavin
Floyd as the top dog over Cole Hamels. Ryan
Howard ranked No. 3. A couple of potential outfield regulars among the
selected :
" ... 4. Michael Bourn ... Philly's center
fielder of the future. He has excellent leadoff skills — speed on the bases and
an ability to work counts and get on base ... has the potential to be a good
line-drive hitter with some gap power, but his real value will come from playing
a key defensive position and reaching base ... a sleeper who could vault up
prospect lists if he has a strong 2005."
" ... 7. Greg Golson ... one of the
best natural athletes in all the minors. He combines outstanding speed, a strong
arm and excellent defensive instincts in center. Although he batted .295 last
season, there's some question to how his offensive skills will hold up in the
higher levels. Golson's plate discipline is lacking, and he didn't show much raw
power in 2004. The organization believes the power will come, and they envision
him one day as a 20-20 threat with Gold Glove defense in the outfield. Until the
numbers show up, color me skeptical."
Seth
Trachtman, SportsBlurb, has an outfield trio atop his Arizona Top 10 :
" ... 1. Conor Jackson ... one of the most
polished and refined position prospects around. He has amazing plate discipline
and hit over .300 in High-A and Double-A last season. He also added 17 homers
and seven steals ... a poor man's Bobby Abreu."
" ... 2. Carlos Quentin ... similarities
between Jackson and Quentin are stunning, from the colleges they attended (Cal
and Stanford) to their draft statuses (first round, 2003). They clobbered High-A
pitching and went up to Double-A together, and both breezed through that level
as well. Like Jackson, Quentin hit above .300 at both levels with 21 homers and
five steals on the season. Quentin's plate discipline is just a step below
Jackson, so that's why he is a spot below Jackson for now."
" ... 3. Josh Kroeger ... broke out
with a vengeance last season. Between Double-A and Triple-A, the 22-year-old hit
well above .300 at both levels with 51 doubles and 19 home runs. His biggest
weakness, and it is huge, is his lack of plate discipline. In 54 at-bats for the
Diamondbacks late in the season, Kroeger had a 1/21 BB/K ratio. Correcting that
problem could determine whether he truly will start in the majors for the
long-term."
J.J.
Cooper in the chat room at Baseball America with notes on the Mets' Top 10 :
Phillip Humber, unsigned " ... As far
as where he would rank on this list, he'd be behind Milledge, and maybe Petit,
but I think he'd be third at the worst. He's a much surer bet with more upside
than anyone else in the Mets top 10 not named Lastings Milledge."
Yusmeiro Petit " ... He's done it up to
now. If he keeps striking out guys in Double-A and Triple-A like he did in Class
A, he'll definitely get his shot. That's what makes him different than a Kazmir.
With guys where you can see why he's dominant (a guy with a couple of 70 pitches
like Kazmir), there's less concern that more experienced hitters will catch up
to him. With Petit, it's a legitimate concern that he may find that veteran
hitters don't have the same problems that Class A guys have had with his
fastball, but he's earned the chance to face those more veteran hitters and find
out ... Petit's showing up on most lists that I've seen. He ranked No. 5 in an
absolutely stacked top 10 for the Sally League this year (just behind Adam
Miller), and he's a sure bet to make our top 100 when it comes out next spring.
He's a definite prospect."
Delmon Young vs Lastings Milledge " ... That
was an interesting discussion around the office all year. Milledge is a better
athlete, and unlike Delmon, he doesn't have any tool that projects as below
average (there is some concern that as Delmon ages he may gain weight to the
point where he's a below average runner), but Delmon has two tools--raw power
and arm that most scouts rate as 70 or plus on the scouting scale, which means
he has the chance to be a home run champ who is a very solid right fielder."
Over
at Diamond Futures, Michael Laureano has wrapped his lengthy (almost a
thousand) list of hitters and has begun a similar list of pitching prospects.
The cream of the hitters :
1. Wright David 11. Fielder Prince
2. Upton BJ 12. Kubel Jason
3. Barton Daric 13. Sing Brandon
4. Stewart Ian 14. Young Delmon
5. Milledge Lastings 15. Dopriak Brian
6. Dukes Elijah 16. McPherson Dallas
7. Marte Andy 17. Blanco Tony
8. Guzman Joel 18. Harper Brett
9. Duncan Eric 19. Perry Jason
10. Morneau Justin 20. Huber Justin
Michael's over-all Top 100 (and more) is scheduled to be posted next Thursday.
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