Rookies 2004

 

  Web Fund
14 December, 2003

    Troop movements ... the first ace prospect on the move ... Adam Wainwright to STL as part of the JD Drew deal ... 

    Winter ball ... Puerto Rico -- Alexis Rios TOR 3-6, 6th homer, 2 RBI, .328 ... Donzell McDonald, in CF, 3-4, .349 ... Ruben Gotay KC 3-5, .333 ... Simon Pond TOR 10th homer ... Adam LaRoche ATL 7th homer ... Venezuela -- Hector Gimenez HOU 4-5, 2 doubles, 2 homers, .327 ... Adrian Hernandez NYA 8.0 4 1 0 2 3, 2-0, 0.53 

    At MinorLeagueBaeball, Tony Lee of SportsTicker has his outfield Top 10 online.  This one  varies considerably from BA's recent OF ratings (especially with the bottom half).  Lee goes with Jeremy Reed CHA as the top dog :

" ... Reed's .373 average split between two leagues was 19 points higher than his nearest competitor, and he topped all minor leaguers with a .453 on-base percentage and a league-adjusted OPS of 1.154 ... Possessing a keen batting eye, Reed drew 70 walks while fanning just 36 times in 464 at-bats between the two levels. Reed showed a marked increase in the power numbers as well, slamming 11 homers, seven more than in 2002, and driving in 95 runs ... has fine speed (45 steals), a sure arm and a solid glove in the outfield, committing just three career errors."

Grady Sizemore CLE was second, ahead of Alexis Rios TOR. LA's Franklin Gutierriez was 4th :

" ... The Venezuela native hit the ground running in the advanced Class A Florida State League. Through six games Gutierrez was batting .464 with six homers and 13 RBI, showcasing prodigious power in a 180-pound frame that will only get stronger. In 110 games with the Vero Beach Dodgers, the 6-2 righty produced 53 extra-base hits and stole 17 bases, earning a call-up to Jacksonville of the Class AA Southern League. A strong finish with the Suns (.313, four home runs in 18 games) showed he is more than ready to progress further in the system. His aggressiveness and extremely quick bat generate awesome power. But with that comes a high amount of strikeouts (131 in 492 at-bats in 2003), perhaps the one area of his game that he will need to improve upon before becoming a true impact player."

    Scott Rex, OnDeck, has his COL Top 10 online. Chin-Hui TsaoIan Stewart and  Jeff Francis ranked 1-2-3.


13 December, 2003

    Are the systems that much weaker or is it just getting used to the new names?  SF, for example, without Foppert, Williams, Ainsworth et al, seems barren.  But, John Manuel, in his BA report, finds some gems.  Merkin Valdez is on the top rung :

" ... Valdez established himself as the Giants’ clear No. 1 prospect with a dominating year at Class A Hagerstown. He won the strikeout crown in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2002, then repeated the feat in the South Atlantic League in his Giants debut ... has the rare ability to invite consistent weak contact with his fastball. With his combination of velocity and command, the Giants say he compares favorably to last year’s No. 1 prospect, Jesse Foppert ...  When he worked as a starter for Hagerstown, his fastball sat in the 92-95 mph range. In a late assignment to the Arizona Fall League, he ran it to 96-98 in short relief stints ... Added to the 40-man roster, Valdez will compete for a big league bullpen job in spring training, following Foppert’s example ...  With more refinement, Valdez profiles as a front-of-the-rotation starter."

Manuel rated righthander Matt Cain at No. 2.

" ... Cain's breaking ball and feel for his changeup are both ahead of Valdez' secondary pitches. Merkin commands his fastball very well, it's a 70 fastball in both velocity and command, but he needs to refine his breaking stuff. If he were to move slowly through the minors, Valdez could probably develop those offspeed pitches enough but perhaps not as much as Cain. We ranked Valdez first in part because Cain missed half of the season with that elbow injury. Long-term, if both are healthy, I'd probably take Cain."

    John Sickels, ESPN.com, on Angel Guzman CHN :

" ... I like Guzman quite a bit ...  missed the second half of the season with a sore shoulder, eventually diagnosed as a minor labrum tear. He is supposed to be healthy by spring. He's had other arm problems before, including an elbow injury a couple of years ago, so the Cubs need to be cautious here ...  one of the best prospects around, with a 92-93 mph sinker, a great changeup, and a decent curveball ...  his control is very good. Statistically, his ratios in Double-A are all very solid, and indicate that he should be ready for a major league trial sometime in 2004 ... If his arm is OK, I do think we'll see him in 2004, and I expect he'll pitch well."

Sickels on Ian Stewart COL :

" ...  I love his bat. He hit .317 with 10 homers, .401 OBP, and .558 SLG in the Pioneer League. I think he'll make a lot of noise in full-season ball in '04. He has plus power from the left side, but he also has enough refinement and plate discipline to hit for average and get on base at a good clip. I think he's one of the five best hitters drafted last year. My main concern for him has been defense. I'm not sure he has enough range to play third base at the major league level ... Rockies player personnel director Bill Geivett tells me that they do think he has sufficient range for the position. His arm strength isn't a question, and the Rockies project him as a "very good" glove at the corner ... Bottom line is that Stewart looks like one of the best players in the draft class, comparable to Eric Chavez, or perhaps Brad Fullmer with a better glove."

    Jim Callis, Baseball America, on Chris Snelling SEA :

" ... Snelling has been one of my favorite prospects since he tore up the low Class A Midwest League in 2000. I dubbed him the Australian Pete Reiser a couple of years ago in a BA chat, and he has continued to get hurt. He blew out his left knee shortly after reaching the majors in 2002, then had more problems with it this season. First he had tendinitis, and in mid-August he tore the meniscus in the knee and required additional surgery. His rehab is going well and the Mariners expect him to be at full strength for spring training. A career .319/.396/.486 hitter in the minors, Snelling is only 22 and has a long career ahead of him if he can stay healthy. But he doesn't have a clear opening in the Seattle outfield after the Mariners gave multiyear contracts to free agent Raul Ibanez and holdover Randy Winn. Snelling might outhit one or both of them in 2005, but this year he'll start the year in Triple-A and probably won't do more in the majors than serve as a fourth outfielder."


12 December, 2003

    Winter ball catchup ... Puerto Rico - Simon Pond TOR 1-3, double & 2-3, 9th homer & 2-4, triple, 3 RBI, .298 ... Adam LaRoche ATL 3-4, double, 6th homer, 4 RBI, .351 ... Mexico -- Calvin Pickering KC 1-2, 2 walks, 12th homer & 2-4, double, .268... Erubiel Durazo OAK 2-4, double, .375 ... Alfredo Amezaga ANA, 1st homer, .257 ... Ross Gload CHA, 12th homer, .316 ... Edgar Gonzalez ARZ, first winter action, 2.0 3 1 1 1 3 ... Venezuela -- Juan Rivera MON 3-5, .293 ... Carlos Hernandez HOU 5.0 1 0 0 2 5 

    Tracy Ringolsby views Chin-Hui Tsao as the top COL prospect in his report for Baseball America.  

" ... has shown he has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2001. Before joining the Rockies, he made a strong impression in his half-season at Double-A Tulsa, ranking as the top prospect in the Texas League ... has a devastating slider, though he has been limited in how he can use it since his elbow surgery ... has an exploding fastball that can run up to 96 mph and usually sits in the low 90s. He can add and subtract from his heater, depending on what the situation calls for. Just as important as his stuff, Tsao has command of the strike zone ...   must adjust to what the advance scouts, pitching coach and catcher believe he should do instead of continually shaking off his catcher ... Tsao will go to spring training with a solid chance to be part of the Rockies rotation."

Ringolsby, in the chatroom, on Ubaldo Jimenez, #4 :

" ... Jimenez was as good, if not better, than anybody could have hoped. He has a live arm, and a great work ethic, which was why he took off in the second half at Asheville, and actually started a Cal League playoff game. He needs a little work on the changeup but everything is there for him to have three plus big league pithces and be a front of the rotation starter."

On, #2 ranked Ian Stewart :

" ... Rockies special adviser Walt Weiss, who watched Stewart work out for several days before the draft, compares Stewart to Scott Rolen. Stewart is a left-handed hitter with legitimate power, which is an idea match for Coors Field. He will be on a fast track becuase of his aptitude and attitude and ability. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him in the big league leagues late in 2005 ... the job will be Stewart's when he is ready. (Jeff) Baker could wind up eventually in left field.  (Garrett) Atkins is a likely trade candidate."

Tsao vs Jeff Francis, #3 :

" ... Both pitchers have very bright futures. Francis is a quality lefty with good command and coachability. Tsao is a potential dominating No. 1. He is younger and having to adjust to the culture as well as the game. Tsao is a 70-plus and Francis would be around 70."

    OAK looking to the farm to fill 5th starter hole :

" ... Now, the A's might go with Justin Duchscherer, a late call-up last season, in that role, or pick up a veteran, as they did with John Halama last year. Beane's standards for that starter aren't high. "You can go with a guy with a 4.50 ERA, one who can keep you in the ballgame for six or seven innings, just so your bullpen doesn't get chewed up," he said. Meanwhile, down on the farm, the A's have another phenom, 23-year-old Joe Blanton, who started at Kane County (Class A) and moved up to Midland (Double- A) last season, striking out 174 hitters in 168 2/3 innings in his combined effort. He'll be in the A's camp in the spring and start the season in Sacramento. "The hope is that he'll be like Harden and pitch so well that he'll force us to call him up in midseason," Beane said, "but we want to make sure he's ready. When we bring up pitchers, we want them to stay." (San Francisco Chronicle)

    What a difference a year, or two, makes.  With Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock in the majors and off the prospect chart, the TEX farm doesn't look too imposing.  Scot Rex, OnDeck, picks lefty John Danks as the best of the bunch with another starter, Juan Dominguez, as the runnerup.

    Spencer Fordin, MLB.com, on Alexis Rios TOR :

" ... He's a very 'toolsy' player. Now the performance is starting to match the tools," said Tony LaCava, Toronto's director of player personnel. "We're real encouraged. We do view him as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and I don't think there's any doubt about that." Rios, the reigning MVP of the Eastern League, is currently tearing up the competition in his homeland. In 12 games for Caguas of the Puerto Rican league, the former first-round pick is batting .333 with five homers and 11 RBIs. Here's why that's especially noteworthy: He's coming off a breakthrough campaign, and he's not showing any signs of letting up."

Ken Gurnick, MLB.com, on Jonathan Figueroa LA :

" ... Figueroa is spending the winter trying to get his career back on track after shoulder problems laid waste to his 2003 season ... a hard-throwing left-hander with a complete repertoire, currently pitching in relief for Zulia in the Venezuelan Winter League. In 10 games, he has a 0.71 ERA over 12 2/3 innings, having allowed one earned run with 13 strikeouts but also 12 walks. The 6-5, 200-pounder reported to Spring Training with shoulder tendinitis and he was shut down. When cleared to pitch, he was returned to Single-A South Georgia, where the year before he was 5-2 with a 1.42 ERA. But in 17 starts with South Georgia this year, he went 1-8 with a 4.94 ERA."

Doug Miller, MLB.com, on Bobby Jenks ANA :

" ... Jenks, who features a fastball that reaches 100 mph and a sharp curveball, had been lights-out for the San Juan Senadores until suffering a rough outing Dec. 9. Going into that outing, Jenks was 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA and had struck out 24 batters in 27 1/3 innings. Even with the bad start, he's still slated to represent Puerto Rico in the Winter League All-Star Game ... "Other than yesterday, he's been real good," Angels general manager Bill Stoneman said. There's speculation that Jenks could reach the big leagues as early as next year if he continues to improve, but Stoneman didn't want to go that far this soon. "He's done Double-A, but he's never seen Triple-A," Stoneman said. "There's some more he's got to do to prepare himself in the minor leagues before being on the cusp of being a Major Leaguer. Last year, he really made some strides from a maturity standpoint and a performance standpoint, and they go together, so we'll see what happens this year."

Mark Bowman, MLB.com, on Wilson Betemit ATL :

" ... there's reason to wonder whether he'll live up to the promise he displayed during the early days of his professional career. Betemit is currently trying to get back into the swing of things while playing in the Dominican Winter League. The 23-year-old infielder tore ligaments in his right thumb during Instructional League action in September. Braves officials and Betemit's agent, Paul Kinzer, both say Betemit is back to full health. But right now his numbers prove he's a little rusty. Through his first five games with Escogido, Betemit had just one hit in 20 at-bats and had committed three errors ... "Wilson has a lot of natural abilities," Braves director of player personnel Dayton Moore said. "He's still learning and we still have confidence that he can play at that next level." ... This past season was a rollercoaster one for Betemit. While he struggled with a batting average around .230 in April and June, he rebounded to hit over .300 in both May and July. Betemit, who hit an impressive 10 triples during the second half of the 2003 season, will compete for a backup infielder's spot in Spring Training this season."


11 December, 2003

    Winter ball catchup ... Puerto Rico -- 2B Ruben Gotay KC 5-7, 2 RBI, .339 ... Michael Restovich MIN 2-5, 1st homer, 4 RBI, .222 ... little step back for Bobby Jenks ANA 3.2 6 7 6 4 2 ... Terrmel Sledge MON, 2-5, .341 ... Simon Pond TOR 2-3, 8th homer, 4 RBI, .277 ... Adam LaRoche ATL 2-4, 5th homer, 3 RBI, .324 ... not sure which Alexis Rios (two listed as playing for Caguas, both OFs) 2-6, double, homer, .297 (the other is listed at .333 with 5 homers) ... Mexico -- Calvin Pickering KC 3-5, .255 ... Dennys Reyes KC 6.0 4 3 2 4 4 ... 

    Dayn Perry, FoxSports, has his picks for the top catching prospects and, of course, Joe Mauer MIN is at the top.  Jeff Mathis ANA beat out a strong field to take the No.2 slot :

" ... Mathis ... made a name for himself in 2002 after he smacked 41 doubles in the Midwest League. This past season, he followed that up with a strong showing in the Cal and Texas Leagues. Like Mauer, he's been younger than his peer group at almost every stop. While his power is more apparent now than Mauer's, most scouts think Mauer's projects as better down the line. Still, Mathis is a very accomplished prospect. He'll spend all of 2004 in the high minors, but he should do fine. He needs to improve his walk rate, but he's a career .301 hitter with a nice power stroke."

OAK's Jeremy Brown ranked #6 :

" ...  Brown doesn't have a body that inspires much confidence, but he does have offensive skills. Other than his stint in the hitter-friendly Cal League, he hasn't shown much power, but his on-base skills are very strong. He's drawn an impressive 94 unintentional walks against 448 career ABs. That's earning him points within the organization. He does need to show more power as he moves through the system, but as a catcher his offensive gold standard is lower than it is for most positions."

Significant variations in the catching picks (after the top three -- Mauer, Mathis, Quiroz) :

BAmerica          FoxSports         SportsTicker
Mauer Joe         Mauer Joe         Mauer Joe
Mathis Jeff       Mathis Jeff       Martinez Victor
Quiroz Guillermo  Navarro Dioner    Quiroz Guillermo
Huber Justin      Quiroz Guillermo  Mathis Jeff
Shoppach Kelly    Huber Justin      Navarro Dioner
Hill Koyie        Brown Jeremy      Shoppach Kelly
Doumit Ryan       Barton Daric      McCann Brian
Buck John         House JR          Closser JD
Navarro Dioner    Cash Kevin        Molina Yader
Laird Gerald      Buck John         Huber Justin

    At MinorLeagueBaseball, Matt Santillo, SportsTicker, has the third base picks with Andy Marte ATL leading the pack :

" ... Following in a long line of top prospects that includes Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Rafael Furcal, Marte accomplished great things before reaching his 20th birthday this past October. After leading the lower level Class A South Atlantic League with 105 RBI in 2002, Marte overcame a rough April to top the advanced Class A Carolina League in doubles and extra-base hits this past season. The native of the Dominican Republic posted an .841 OPS despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park. For the second straight season Marte was honored as a postseason all-star. Marte has a line-drive swing that will generate more power as he matures. Fed an enormous amount of offspeed pitches last year, the 6-1, 180-pounder was able to make solid adjustments with his pitch recognition. After some early struggles in the field, Marte has put in the time to develop into an average defender. He still needs to improve his footwork around the bag and the Braves are positive that he will do just that in Class AA next season."

Dallas McPherson ANA finished just behind Marte :

" ... Despite suffering a back injury in spring training, McPherson displayed above-average power throughout the season, including a month-long stint in the Class AA Texas League. Selected in the second round of 2001, McPherson put together one of the top offensive seasons in the minors last year, batting .310 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 105 games. The lefthanded hitter earned a promotion out of the advanced Class A California League after smacking 11 homers and driving in 22 runs in an 11-game span in mid-July. During that binge, McPherson connected on a long home run off a rehabbing Randy Johnson. Overall, the 23-year-old finished third in the National Association with a .596 slugging percentage and recorded an OPS of 1.010 between both hitter-friendly circuits. Defensively, the North Carolina native has a strong arm and soft hands. His lack of mobility at the position could call for a move to the outfield. With Troy Glaus still in Anaheim, McPherson will be given time in the minors to improve."

Hmmm.  Not a lot of support for Ian Stewart COL.  With that exception, general agreement on the names with a little shifting of the order. 

BAmerica          FoxSports        SportsTicker
Marte Andy        McPherson Dallas Marte Andy
McPherson Dallas  Marte Andy       McPherson Dallas
Wright David      Wright David     Wright David
Hart Corey        Stewart Ian      Encarnacion Edwin
Encarnacion Edwin Tracy Chad       Hart Corey
Tracy Chad        Youkilis Kevin   Tracy Chad
Kirkland Kody     Hart Corey       Harris Brendan
Harris Brendan    Kirkland Kody    Youkilis Kevin
Youkilis Kevin    Harris Brendan   Kirkland Kody
Smith Corey       D'Antona Jamie   Smith Corey

    John Sickels, ESPN.com, on Terrmel Sledge MON :

" ... devastated Pacific Coast League pitching, finishing third in the batting title race while also setting a career high in home runs and RBI. Scouting report Sledge is a good athlete ... .makes solid contact, can pull the ball for power or hit to the opposite field as needed. He works counts well, and has good strike zone judgment. Sledge also has above-average speed, and runs the bases in an aggressive-but-intelligent way. He has enough range to play center field, but his arm is weak (partially due to aftereffects from the shoulder injury) ."

" ... His walk rates are very good, and he doesn't strike out excessively. His MLEs say he can hit .270-.290 at the major league level, with enough walks and speed contributions to boost his secondary average. I don't think he is a threat for 20 homers in full-time play, but could hit 10-12. His biggest weakness statistically is his age. He got a late start to his career as a college senior draft, and the shoulder injury slowed his development by a year. He turns 27 in March, and is as good now as he'll likely ever be ...  unlikely to become a star, but he still qualifies as an overlooked prospect who deserves more attention. His multiple skills would make him an excellent fourth outfielder, and there are some regular players who aren't as good as he is."


10 December, 2003

    Troop movements ... reliever Akinori Otsuka, from Japan, signed by SD ... small thing, but might make your roster decisions a little easier next season ...

" ... The players union has approved a fourth minor league option year for Orioles outfielder Larry Bigbie and left-handed pitcher Matt Riley, giving the club the flexibility to send them to the minors next year without first having to pass them through waivers. Players normally have just three minor league options, but special exceptions are made when a player uses all three before gaining five years of professional experience. Bigbie started playing professionally in 1999, and though Riley started in 1998, he pitched in just 16 games that season and missed all of 2001 with an elbow injury. It may not matter, since Bigbie and Riley both figure into the Orioles' major league plans for next season." (Baltimore Sun)

    Rule 5 draft coming up Monday ... Josh Boyd, Baseball America, noting a few choice morsels :

" ... Chris Shelton, 23, is coming off a .336-21-83 effort between Class A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona. His .568 slugging percentage and .441 on-base ranked among the best in the minors, and he earned the Carolina League MVP award. Despite his gaudy numbers, he doesn't overwhelm scouts. The attention Shelton has conjured in the Rule 5 is predicated on his ability to catch. After being drafted in the 33rd round out of Utah in 2001, he primarily caught in his first season, but split time between first base and catching the last two years. In 38 games behind the plate last year, Shelton threw out 25 percent of basestealers. He has average arm strength at best, but doesn't have the most refined catch-and-throw mechanics. He's got a stocky, unathletic build at 6 feet and 200 pounds, and has often drawn comparisons to Craig Wilson. Shelton could be carried as a third catcher, and his plate discipline and power could make him a valuable righthanded option off the bench."

' ... Rich Thompson, who was acquired in a steal this summer from the Blue Jays for journeyman righthander John Wasdin, was at his best in front of scouts in the Arizona Fall League. He is the ideal Rule 5 pick because his plus speed and ability to play all three outfield spots will allow him to step in as a fifth outfielder right away. Thompson, 24, was drafted by the Blue Jays in the sixth round out of James Madison in 2000. He hit .293-0-26 with 48 steals in 55 attempts between Double-A and Triple-A, so power is obviously not his game. However, Thompson understands this and is geared toward hitting the ball on the ground and to the opposite field. He makes consistent contact and has good instincts to hit."

    Winter ball ... Venezuela .. Rene Reyes COL 2-4, 2 homers (8), .323 

    Scott Rex, OnDeck, selects righthander Jeff Allison as the best of the FLO prospects.  Jason Stokes ranked #2 ahead of lefty starter Scott Olsen.

Earlier this week, Olsen ranked #5 in Matthew Pouliot's FLO report on RotoWorld :

" ... It's hard to believe a 6-foot-4 left-hander with Olsen's stuff lasted to the sixth round of the 2002 draft. The Illinois native throws in the low-90s with his fastball and has an above average slider and a decent change. If his control improves, he has No. 2 starter potential. More likely is that he'll always have a rather high walk rate, making him a No. 3 or No. 4 starter."

    Alex Escobar appears to be in CLE's plans :

" ... (CLE GM Mark) Shapiro said he is continuing to explore trades. The current rumor involves acquiring second baseman Junior Spivey from the Milwaukee Brewers, but there's a catch. The Indians won't give up a young player they like for a second baseman who might find himself on the bench by midseason, if Phillips progresses as expected. The Brewers have reportedly asked for Ryan Ludwick or Alex Escobar, and that's not going to happen. ``We have explored a lot of alternatives, and we are still doing that,'' Shapiro said. ``We continue to think that (free agency) is our best.'' The current crop of free-agent infielders who can play second base is limited, particularly since Shapiro is looking for a guy who can be a plus at the plate." (Akron Beacon Journal)


09 December, 2003

    At MinorLeagueBaseball, Jim Keller, SportsTicker, tackles the ranking of the shortstop prospects. While he led the world in errors, BJ Upton TB led a talented group to take the top spot :

" ... The second-youngest everyday player in the low Class A South Atlantic League hit .325 after a slow start ... skipped over high Class A to Class AA Orlando, where he hit .276 in 28 games  ... posted a .297 average, 30 doubles, eight homers, 40 steals and 73 walks between the two stops. He did commit a minor league-high 56 errors, although its not that uncommon for a young shortstop ... The 6-3, 170-pound Upton is far from the major leagues, and he may outgrow shortstop, but he's already shown enough to be ranked the number two prospect in the entire minor leagues by SportsTicker."

OAK's Bobby Crosby won the runnerup position (ahead of JJ Hardy MIL) :

" ... Crosby only has two years of full-season experience but spent all of last season at Class AAA, batting .308 with 32 doubles, 22 homers, 90 RBI and 24 steals ... committed just 15 errors in 125 games, down from 32 the previous season. Oakland loves his instincts, strong arm and solid footwork, though some feel his 6-3 size will limit his range. An All-Prospect team selection in 2003, Crosby finished as the number six prospect in the entire minor leagues."

    MLB.com on Kazuo Matsui :

" ... a nice combination of speed and power for a middle infielder. Last year, Matsui hit .305 with 33 homers and 13 steals for the Seibu Lions. The 1998 MVP has twice led the Pacific League in steals, and has also been a seven-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner ... become the Mets' everyday shortstop, pushing young phenom Jose Reyes over to second. It is likely that Matsui’s power numbers will fall off somewhat in the Majors. Godzilla blasted 50 homers in 2002 in Japan, but hit only 16 in his first year in the Majors. Ichiro averaged 17 homers a season from 1994-2000, but averaged fewer than 10 in his first three seasons with Seattle. However both players have shown they can hit for average in the Majors. While projecting Little Matsui’s average is difficult, assume somewher in the .270-.290 range with 10-15 homers and 20 steals. He’ll probably go higher on draft day than he deserves because of the success of Ichiro and Godzilla, so make sure not to pay too much or take him with an early round pick. Reyes’ value goes up with this signing because he will likely qualify at both 2B and SS in most fantasy leagues."

    Will Kimmey, Baseball America, in the chatroom with more on the ARZ farm :

" ... don't expect either (Scott) Hairston or (Sergio) Santos to end up in the middle of the diamond. My best guess is Hairston ends up in left, where his bat will play fine. For this year, if Matt Kata, the Opening Day 2b, comes back to earth and Hairston is warm in Tucson, Hairston will get time at 2b, but he just doesn't have the arm slot or actions for the position. He's Luis Gonzalez' eventual LF replacement. Santos has the best bat of any candidates for 3b, so he should win out there. He might just be too big for SS, but would fit better at a reactionary position like 3b, where his cannon arm will play fine ... Santos isn't a gold glove defender and probably will have to move to 3b or the OF. I'd say his offensive game compares better to that of Miguel Tejada as both have 35 HR power but are free-swinging enough to fight to get a .275 average. I say (Chad) Tracy is playing in the majors by at least midseason. If Arizona doesn't go with him this year, he's nice trade bait--a .300-hitting third baseman with solid defense.

" ... Edgar Gonzalez has the stuff and mentality to succeed and could be their top rookie starter this season. Don't expect another Brandon Webb redux, that can't happen each year ... He's probably more middle of the rotation because while he has a solid repertiore, he also tends to nibble at times, trying to be too fine. He'll need to be a bit more aggressive."

    John Sickels, ESPN.com, on the arming of the Phillies :

" ... the premiere arm in the system belongs to power lefty Cole Hamels, who was nearly unhittable at times in the Sally League last year. He should hit Double-A in '04 ... The same goes for right-hander Gavin Floyd, who had some inconsistency in '03 but remains a top prospect. Right-hander Ryan Madson spent this year at Scranton, and could return there again in '04 if he doesn't make the major league rotation in spring training. He doesn't have the pure ceiling of Floyd or Hamels, but is a legitimate prospect in his own right and should develop into a workhorse starter."

And, one that got away (to HOU in the Billy Wagner deal) :

" ... Taylor Buchholz doesn't have quite the pure stuff belonging to Hamels or Floyd, but he's far from a consolation prize for the Astros ... He went 9-11 with a 3.55 ERA and a 114/33 K/BB ratio in 145 innings at Double-A Reading this past season ...  has a low 90s fastball, a great curveball, and a useful changeup. His command is sharp, and while I don't think he can be a power-pitching ace, he could settle in as a consistent No. 2 starter."

    Matthew Pouliot, RotoWorld, zooms through the NL East, beginning with the choice of Adam Wainwright over Andy Marte as the best of the ATL youngsters :

" ... Wainwright's stock began to dip after a slow start at Greenville, but he turned things around in the second half and remains one of baseball's top pitching prospects ...  Of some concern is that, with a career ERA of 3.37, he's never really displayed the ability to dominate minor league hitters. Still, he is making steady progress and his strikeout rate remains strong. He should make his major league debut in 2004 and eventually settle in as a No. 2 starter."

Of interest, Matthew's inclusion of Wilson Betemit on the Top 10, at #3 no less :

" ... Betemit had his second straight rough season in 2003, but it has to be remembered that he was a 21-year-old playing in Triple-A. If he was playing with the rest of the 21-year-olds in high A ball, it's safe to assume his numbers would have been much better and he'd still be regarded as a top prospect because of his physical gifts ... a converted shortstop, will continue to improve at third base and is very likely to develop into a quality regular someday. It's just looking more likely that it won't happen in Atlanta."

Former phenom Kelly Johnson dropped to #6 on the chart.

I suppose Kazuo Matsui would likely rank behind Scott Kazmir among Mets' prospects.  But, as it is, it's catcher Justin Huber behind the lefty ace :

" ... Kazmir ... has about as much upside as any pitcher in the minors ... a mid-90s fastball, an excellent slider and a changeup that tends to come and go. Command issues combined with a strict pitch count enforced by the Mets limited him to 109 1/3 innings last season, but there's nothing wrong with Kazmir that experience won't take care of."

" ...  Huber ... like the man he could replace in 2005, he's an offensive-minded catcher with just enough defensive ability to have a lengthy career behind the plate ... has displayed both power and the ability to hit for average even though he's been young for his levels. Defensively, he has trouble throwing out baserunners but is average elsewhere. If necessary, Huber's bat could allow him to become a decent first baseman. As a catcher, he's a potential All-Star."

A mild surprise to see Huber rated over third baseman David Wright (who ranked #3).

The top four PHI prospects are starters -- Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson and Keith Bucktrot.  The top position player is first baseman Ryan Howard (at #5) :

" ... Howard combines 30-homer power with a solid glove at first base, making him a potential regular. It just isn't going to happen in Philadelphia, where Jim Thome is locked up through 2008 ... Because of questions about how well he will fare against major league breaking pitches, Howard isn't a top prospect. However, he could turn into a Brad Fullmer-type hitter."

In FLO, another vote for Jason Stokes as the best of the Marlins' prospects :

" ... At least some of Stokes' problems in 2003 can be traced back to the wrist surgery he had following a breakthrough 2002 season in which he hit .341/.421/.645 in 97 games for low Single-A Kane County. He should be able to shake the bad habits that manifested, especially in the Arizona Fall League, once he's all the way back in 2004. Stokes has exceptional power potential and could be a Richie Sexson-type player someday."

19-year-old starter Jeff Allison was next, ahead of outfielder Jeremy Hermida.

Catcher Josh Willingham was #4 :

" ... Willingham ...  a third baseman prior to last season, but he has taken very well to catching and has at least some chance of playing regularly behind the plate in the majors ...  has the arm for the position and is rapidly picking up everything else. If he can stay healthy in 2004, he should be ready to compete for a job in 2005. The Marlins might even call him up in the second half of next season if they need a bat."

Lefty Mike Hinckley has moved to the top of the MON list ahead of Seung Song and Clint Everts :

" ... Hinckley ... was having just a decent 2003 season until a late-season promotion to the Florida State League, where his performance for Brevard County firmly established himself as Montreal's top prospect. Hinckley throws in the low 90s and had an excellent curveball. His changeup is well behind his other pitches, but he still could turn it into an average offering. The Expos can't afford to be too patient with him, so expect Hinckley to reach the majors in 2005. He has No. 2 starter potential."

    Those PHI kids getting quite the coverage as Dan Troy, StrikeThree, also made a tour of the Philly Farm :

" ... Cole Hamels is one of the few pitching prospects that can match up well against Scott Kazmir. Indeed, he was clearly superior to Kazmir in the SAL this year ... best offering is a very deceptive changeup that he can locate for strikes and which nicely complements a solid fastball and curve. He continued to pitch well upon promotion to the FSL, and he may be on track for Philadelphia before the end of 2005."


08 December, 2003

    Kazuo Matsui a Met (which leaves phenom Jose Reyes as a second base candidate) :

" ... Japanese star Kazuo Matsui decided to join the New York Mets, accepting the team's three-year offer Monday. "Last night, I thought about a lot of things and I narrowed it down to one team, and that team is the New York Mets," he said at a news conference at Narita International Airport ... Matsui planned to travel to New York immediately following the news conference. The Mets' offer was for about $20 million over three years ... Nicknamed "Little Matsui," the shortstop is not related to New York Yankees outfielder Hideki Matsui. Matsui is a seven-time All-Star and a three-time Golde Glove winner in Japan, hitting .305 with 33 home runs and 84 RBI last season for the Seibu Lions. The 28-year-old Matsui is a switch-hitter who led the Pacific League in stolen bases twice and was the league Most Valuable Player in 1998. (Associated Press)

    Will Kimmey selects Scott Hairston over Sergio Santos as the best of the ARZ prospects in his report for Baseball America.  And, there's a moderate surprise at #3 -- Dustin Nippert :

" ... A majority of scouts would agree Hairston's bat is ready for the majors now and allows him all-star potential as a second baseman ...  excellent bat speed also allows him to generate plus power, and he could top the career home run output of his father (30) or brother (24) in just one season. Hairston's total package at the plate could result in Gary Sheffield-like production ...  The Jeff Kent comparisons that follow Hairston are based on his offense and defense. Hairston has trouble making the pivot on double plays and isn't comfortable throwing from different angles. He has spent time working on his defense in the AFL the last two seasons, and while he has made progress he also boots routine plays. While Hairston's hands, range and arm are average, most scouts project his future to be at third base or the outfield ... could make Arizona's Opening Day roster with a strong spring training. Otherwise, he'll begin 2004 at Triple-A Tucson with an in-season promotion a distinct possibility."

" ... Dustin Nippert ... After two strong minor league seasons and a stellar AFL, Nippert will skip a level and jump to Double-A. He has the stuff to develop into a front-of-the-rotation starter."


  
  

 

    
Rookie Reports Archive (summary form) :

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2003 -- Jan    Feb   Mar-Apr  May-June   July   Aug   Sept   Oct   Nov  Dec 01-07  

2003 Minor League Stats 1 (Hitters, by OPS, by AAA, AA, A, Short Season, OBA, SLG, Walks, Ks, SBs, Errors)

2003 Minor League Stats 2 (Pitchers, by ERA, AAA, AA, A, Short Season, Ks & Hitters by position)