Rookies 2004

22 February, 2004

Here he goes again, launching the annual appeal with the slightly battered, but trusty tin cup (staking out the choice street locations). (Although not nearly as crafty as the guy with the leather jacket, Rolex & cell phone outside Shopper's Drug Mart on St. Clair Avenue in Toronto.)   Many thanks to those who've already sent in contributions for the new season.  If you can help out, click the cup image (at right or below). Wishes for a great season !  jdm

    Two drafts Saturday, along with three more email drafts ... so might be AWOL Sunday ...

    Paul White, Baseball Weekly, on a trio to watch this spring :

" ... Andy Marte, Braves ... third baseman is one of the better hitting prospects in the game. He played at Class A last year and is just 20, but Atlanta has done this before. Remember how Rafael Furcal entered spring training with no fanfare and no chance but jumped to the majors?"

" ... Merkin Valdez, Giants: Now we're coming to expect a Dontrelle Willis every year. The odds are stacked against that, but this big guy who came over in the Russ Ortiz trade is as good a candidate as any."

" ... Wladimir Balentien, Mariners: You'll have to wait until the minor leaguers report to camp in Peoria, Ariz. But this lanky Aruban teen is a budding Jim Thome (though right-handed) or Rob Deer. Homers, strikeouts and a big swing make him worth the price of admission (OK, so you can roam the minor league fields for free)."

    A red light on two of the Dodger kids :

" ... Greg Miller and Joel Hanrahan, two of the Dodgers' top pitching, prospects, both will be sidelined until at least early next week because of shoulder tendinitis, Tracy said. Neither pitcher is expected to break camp with the Dodgers, and both will be reevaluated in five or six days. The Dodgers are being extra careful with Miller, who had tendinitis issues last season. "You can get hurt if you push it too much in the bullpen," Tracy said." (Los Angeles Daily News)

    O's Denny Bautista with a chance to pitch in Camden Yards this season :

" ... The Orioles got him from the Florida Marlins in the Jeff Conine trade, and team officials can't wait to see how this 6-foot-5 power pitcher looks in big league camp this spring. With four starting pitching spots up for grabs, maybe Bautista's time will come sooner than expected.  "He could certainly be a big boost," Beattie said. "I think probably in a good scenario, he could be ready for the second half of the season, but it may come sooner. "Both he and John Maine are going to be at Double-A to start the year, and things happen quickly from Double-A. ... If they demonstrate that they're ready to move, we're going to move them." (Baltimore Sun)

    One of the PIT 2B prospects hobbled in the early going :

" ... Freddy Sanchez and Bobby Hill, acquired in trades, are supposed to compete for the job at second. But  ... Sanchez is unable to take ground balls or run. He is still bothered by the nagging effects of surgery to remove a bone spur in his right foot, a complication from a right ankle injury that occurred two days before he was traded by the Red Sox. Hill, who had a stress facture in his back which ended his season last year, is cleared to participate in all drills. But he has limited time in the majors, and the verdict is still out on whether he can contribute." (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

    Mike Hindman is making his way through the TEX farm for Jamey Newberg's TEX Minor League Report.  Mike hands the top prize to righthander Juan Dominguez, followed by last year's top TEX pick, lefty John Danks.  Ben Kozlowski is No. 3, then Wes Littleton and John Hudgins.  A bit surprised that Kameron Loe ranked down at No. 7 (although it now appears he may be headed for the pen)  :

" ... After a decent professional debut in 2002 when he went 4-4, 4.47  ... with Rookie Advanced level Pulaski, Loe exploded ... going a combined 7-3, 1.67 at Clinton and Stockton while limiting opposing batters to a .208 average. The knocks on the 6'8" Loe are that he lacks dominant stuff and tends to nibble rather than go after hitters, and yet he fanned 125 hitters in 135 innings this season while maintaining impeccable control, issuing only 25 walks all year. I’ve talked to scouts who look for a 3-1 ration in K’s-to-BB’s: Loe’s ratio was 5-1. Wow. The Texas League awaits."

In his report on the best infielders, Mike checked off Ramon Nivar as the top dog :

" ... As a hitter, Nivar reminds me very much of a young catcher this system developed in the early 1990's. Like Pudge, Nivar can get his bat on nearly any thrown ball--and is all too aware of it. It is clear now that he'll never walk enough to be a leadoff man in an organization headed up by Grady Fuson, but could be a terror in the seven or eight hole or an interesting number two, with his ability to put the ball in play ... It seems pretty clear now that Alfonso Soriano is going to be a center fielder and that Michael Young will move over to short stop. Eric Young will fill in at second until either Nivar, Drew Meyer or Jason Bourgeois prove that they are ready for major league duty. I could be wrong, and the club could certainly continue to develop Nivar as an outfielder, but if the outfield becomes settled with Soriano, Nix and Jordan, then he could very well force his way into the lineup at second base nonetheless."

    One of Hindman's picks, Ben Kozlowski bouncing back from surgery :

" ... Kozlowski is the only Rangers pitcher who will be limited to what he can do when pitchers and catchers begin their first workouts today. Kozlowski is coming back from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. But he is throwing off the mound. "It's been fantastic," said Kozlowski, the Rangers' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2002. "I'm averaging 50 pitches ... whatever I have that day, I'm letting it rip." (Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

    Felipe Lopez CIN, still a reasonable pick says Aaron Gleeman, RotoWorld :

" ... has struggled immensely in his previous stints in the majors, hitting just .232/.299/.369 in 193 games. There is just no way he's going to take the job from Larkin if he doesn't do something to really earn it. Still, despite those bad numbers, there are reasons to believe Lopez can become a very good player.  For one thing, he's still just 23 years old, and baseball history is filled with young players who struggled initially before becoming good players. In addition to his youth, he has a good minor league-track record, which includes hitting 289/.358/.470 in 167 career Triple-A games. Lopez is a very good sleeper for NL-only leagues in 2004, because he is potentially an upper-level shortstop, with solid power and speed."

    Jim Callis, Baseball America, in the chat room ... Felix Hernandez SEA vs Ryan Anderson & Rafael Soriano at the same age :

" ... Soriano was playing the outfield and two years away from pitching at the same age, while Anderson wasn't nearly as polished. Hernandez is much more advanced on the mound than either of those guys was. He seems almost too good to be true, doesn't he ...his stuff is unquestioned. He just needs to stay healthy and get some experience."

Lefties. Travis Blackley SEA vs Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Greg Miller :

" ... Those guys have significantly better pure stuff than Blackley, though his stuff is good and his pitchability can't be denied. All three of those guys ranked in the Top 20 on our soon-to-be-revealed Top 100 Prospects list, while Blackley checked in at No. 64."

20 February, 2004

    The latest Top Prospect list due today ... Baseball Prospectus to release its in style as BP staffers meet with fans at a piazza feed in Chicago ...

    Interesting top pick in SEA.  Jim Callis, Baseball America, likes the kid, 17-year-old Felix Hernandez as the best of the young Mariners :

" ... was an easy choice as the NWL’s No. 1 prospect. Promoted for the low Class A Midwest League stretch drive, he responded with two quality starts in as many tries. In the season finale, he shut out Kane County with 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Hernandez succeeded against even more experienced hitters this winter, going 1-1, 4.23 in six starts for Lara in his native Venezuela. ... has scary upside. He’ll open this season as a 17-year-old and he doesn’t need to develop any more stuff ...  has the best fastball in the system and commands his mid-90s heat well ... curveball is also unparalleled among Mariners farmhands and gives him the possibility for two 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale ...  Arm problems would appear to be the only thing that could derail him from stardom ... might need just two more years in the minors ... It’s easy to get overexcited about young pitchers, but Hernandez has the legitimate potential to become the best pitcher ever developed by the Mariners. "

Pitchers also took the No. 2 & No. 3 spots -- Clint Nageotte & Travis Blackley.

    David Cameron, at USS Mariner, has released his SEA Top 40 with significant differences from the BA choices.  David goes with Nageotte at the top, Chris Snelling No. 2, and Jose Lopez at No. 3.  Hernandez rates No. 7 :

" ... Exciting potential, but too little information about his abilities to rank higher."

    Casey Tefertiller, Baseball America, on Shane Komine OAK :

" ... Because he stands only 5-9, Komine will have to continually prove himself at every level before anyone believes he can be a quality major-leaguer ... hard to project when he will reach the majors, since he will have to convince at each level. He ranks in the lower third of the A's top 30, but he is one of the reasons the A's system is so unconventional this year. He could emerge as something special in the future."

    Joe Ptak, Cleveland Indians Reports, on Jody Gerut & Grady Sizemore CLE :

" ... Lefties gave him fits last season (.209) and both his power and eye were down significantly against southpaws as opposed to right-handers. That's something he'll need to continue to work on, as well as continued improvement in working the strike zone. He doesn't strike out a whole lot (75) but he needs to draw more walks (35). And, of course, Gerut is recovering from a torn rotator cuff and his status for the start of the regular season is a question mark although the Indians seem to think he'll be ready to go, even if it's only in a DH role."

" ... What can I say about Grady Sizemore that you haven't already heard? He's the Indians top position prospect, one of the best outfield prospects in the game, Futures Game MVP, and dominated in the US Olympic Qualifying trials. For the record, Sizemore hit .304/.373/.480/.853 with 26 doubles, 11 triples, and 13 homeruns for the Aeros last year while playing most of the season as a 20-year old. With all the outfielders battling for playing time ahead of Cleveland, the Indians will likely be patient with Sizemore and let him spend most of the season in triple-A although big league injuries and a strong performance from Sizemore could change that as the season progresses."

19 February, 2004

    Dayn Perry, FoxSports, has another installment in his Top 100.  Fascinating looking at the 41-50 group.  Some really interesting prospects down here, including Jesse Crain MIN, Ian Stewart COL, and two guys with a chance for playing time this season :

" ... JJ Davis is already 25, and his minor league record of performance is a mixed bag. However, it's his burgeoning power potential that merits your attention. In 2002 at AA-Altoona, Davis slugged a hefty .526. The trend continued in 2003 when he slugged .554 at AAA-Nashville ...  plate discipline needs work, but he does have a power stroke ... will compete for the starting right field job ... wasn't impressive in a late-season look-see in Pittsburgh, but it was a very small sample of plate appearances."

" ...  Sean Burnett ... strikeout numbers have dropped as he's moved up through the system, but his control has been absolutely tremendous. He keeps the ball in the park and lets his defense work for him. Burnett doesn't make many mistakes, and he shows good command. He wasn't as impressive in the Eastern League, so he'll be facing a critical season in 2004. Even so, the Pirates may give him a shot at the rotation coming out of spring training. However, I'm betting they'll allow him further seasoning. Kirk Reuter is a reasonable proxy for Burnett."

Perry ranked Dioner Navarro NYA at No. 41, two spots ahead of TOR catching prospect Guillermo Quiroz. 

    At Baseball America, Casey Terfetiller has compiled the prospect report on the OAK system.  An interesting view -- with both Dan Johnson (No.3 ) and Graham Koonce (No.5 ) making the Top 10.   No. 1 is shortstop Bobby Crosby who has a trial by fire this season :

" ... he’ll be better than most shortstops. He has a solid approach, using the entire field and drawing walks, and should hit for average with 20-homer power ... . not a spectacular defender, he’s a consistent, dependable shortstop who gets the job done ... .hands are outstanding and his arm is strong ... they’d like Crosby to chase fewer pitches out of the strike zone and to improve his two-strike approach. Those adjustments should come with experience ... He won’t quite fill his predecessor’s shoes, but Oakland still will have a shortstop who’s above-average offensively and defensively. “He’s ready for the big leagues,” Triple-A Sacramento manager Tony DeFrancesco says. “I think he will be in the class with the other great shortstops.” That may be setting a high standard, but Crosby has lived up to every challenge he has faced."

Fast-rising Joe Blanton ranked No. 2.  Catcher Jeremy Brown missed the cut :

" ... As players advance, deficiencies can become more apparent. In A ball, Brown's significant ability became visible. In double A, a problem emerged -- the same problem scouts forecast when he was a college player. The enormous question is whether Brown will have the athleticism to be a starting catcher; whether he can block balls in the dirt and the like. He is doing flexibility training and working to increase his abilities. If he succeeds, he could become a sold major-league catcher. If not, it is hard to see him as more than a backup or swing player. Offense does not appear to be an issue. He handles pitchers well. A's officials believe he will develop his flexibility, and if they are right, he could be a star. Outside the organization, there is great skepticism. We shall see."

    Suspected, now confirmed.  Alfonso Soriano two years closer to 30. 

" ... Last summer, Soriano informed the Yankees he was not as young as had been reported, and was in fact two years older, closer to 28 than 26. The infielder was originally listed with a birth date in 1978, but he was really born on Jan. 7, 1976. The correct date would have been reflected in New York's media guide this season had he remained with the Yankees. The Rangers were aware of Soriano's age when they completed the deal that sent Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees earlier this week. "We knew about his age," Rangers spokesperson Greg Elkin said. "The Yankees told us, but we knew it already. His correct age was in the bio we released when we made the trade." (MLB.com)

18 February, 2004

    Troop movments ... A clue to Josh Hamilton's problems ... MLB, in sorting out Hamilton's penalty, noted a violation of the league's drug policy.  Hamilton has been suspended until March 19th ... TEX began it's post-ARod era with the signing of ... Doug Brocail to a minor league deal ... hmmmm

    Jim Callis, Baseball America, in the chat room with more notes on ANA prospects :

" ... Alberto Callaspo ... I'd project Callaspo as a starter, and he'll be a cheaper alternative to Adam Kennedy when he's ready. He doesn't hit for a ton of pop and I wish he'd walk a little more, but he's a magician with his bat control, runs well and plays good defense."

" ... Bobby Jenks ... Jenks is still Jenks: a high ceiling guy with questionable control and a questionable makeup. He has made some progress, but still needs to throw a lot more strikes and settle down. I always have thought, and continue to think, that he's going to be better suited to relieve rather than start."

" ... Jeff Mathis might be Anaheim's best option as a big league catcher by the end of the year. If Bobby Jenks ever puts it all together, he'd get a quick call to the majors. Chris Bootcheck could factor in as a middle reliever. Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson and Ervin Santana could get September callups, but there aren't a whole lot of obvious openings in Anaheim right now."

" ... Guys who weren't in full-season leagues last year and didn't make our Top 10: second baseman Howie Kendrick, outfielder Warner Madrigal, catcher Bobby Wilson, righthander Carlos Morban, infielder Sean Rodriguez, righty Bob Zimmermann, lefty Kyle Pawelczyk, outfielder Blake Balkcom. I think Kendrick and Wilson could really make a name for themselves in 2004."

    Ken Warren, Ballpark Figures - 2004, with some thoughts on impact rookies for 2004 along with projections for the season (BA,OVA,SLG) :

Kazuo Matsui – will take over the shortstop job for the Mets, and should be an impact player immediately (275/320/485)

Jason Bay – the Pirates will give him a regular job in the outfield. He has been hitting extremely well for the past season and a half (260/370/490)

Bobby Crosby – will take over as the Oakland A’s shortstop in 2004 (273/342/425). Opened up a lot of eyes with a terrific performance at ‘AAA’ in 2003.

Joe Mauer – the Twins traded away A.J. Pierzynski to open up a job for him  (290/370/385). He will turn 21 during the 2004 season and has potential superstar written all over him.

Khalil Greene – looks like the Padres are handing the shortstop job over to him (275/315/395). Poor plate discipline and batting eye will limit his success for a while.

J.J. Davis – will likely win a regular job in the Pirates outfield, based on a couple of impressive minor league season in 2002 and 2003 (248/300/470)

Justin Morneau – will probably get a fair bit of time at 1B and DH in 2004 (275/335/470)

Jason Lane – doesn’t have a starting job, but will be the number one back-up in Houston’s outfield and will likely get a fair number of at bats if he hits like he can (283/345/475)

Aaron Miles – he looks to the favourite to win the 2nd base job for Colorado this season (270/325/420)

Kevin Cash – he is in line to share the catching position with Greg Myers in 2004 (230/295/405)

Jeremy Reed – now looks to be the centre fielder of the future for the White Sox   He had a fantastic 2003 season showing tremendous plate discipline with 70 walks in 464 at bats. (280/350/430)

Adam LaRoche - will probably be the primary first baseman for Atlanta and should do at least as well as Robert Fick did. (255/320/440). Defense is a definite strength. 

Grant Balfour - he will probably be in the Twins rotation. He had 11 starts at ‘AAA’ in 2003 with a 2.41 ERA (87/16 K/BB ratio) and pitched OK in 17 major league appearances. (142 IP, 3.62 ERA)

Brandon Claussen – a good bet to win s spot in the Reds’ rotation. He has recovered very nicely from Tommy John surgery in June 2002. (168 IP, 4.01 ERA)

Edwin Jackson – looks to be ready to pitch successfully at the major leagues, but because he is only 20 years old, and the Dodgers have lots of starting pitchers he main start the year at ‘AAA’. (148 IP, 4.16 ERA)

Joe Blanton – after his  dominating season in 2003 he appears to be ahead of Duchscherer and Wood and will be the 6th starter for Oakland in 2004. If a starting spot doesn’t open up for him, he could spend part of the season in the bullpen (67 IP, 3.49 ERA)

Erasmo Ramirez – he has been absolutely dominant for three seasons now, including 49 impressive major league innings in 2003 with the Rangers (75 IP, 3.47 ERA). Will likely be relatively unknown in most leagues.

Matt Riley – looks like he is finally ready for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation. Staying healthy will be the challenge now. (145 IP, 4.33 ERA)

Jesse Crain – he was the best relief pitcher in the minors last season with 114 strikeouts and 25 walks in 84 innings. Will be in the Twins’ bullpen for 2004 (50 IP, 3.10 ERA)

Doug Waechter – looks like he will be in the Devil Rays’ rotation (106 IP, 4.25 ERA)

Jason Stanford – he is ready to take his place in the Indians’ rotation. 108 strikeouts and 25 walks at ‘AAA’ in 2003. (100 IP, 4.27 ERA)

Ryan Wagner – selected in the first round of the 2003 by the Cincinnati Reds, John Sickels already has him rated as the second best pitching prospect in baseball. He posted a 1.66 ERA in his first 22 major league innings. May be converted to a started down the road. (65 IP, 3.89 ERA)

Chad Cordero – selected in the first round of the 2003 draft by the Montreal Expos and was terrific in his professional debut, culminating with 11 innings in the major leagues. Should spend all of 2004 in the majors and may be the closer very soon. (60 IP, 3.64 ERA)

    MIL notes from MLB.com :

" ... Adrian Hernandez. On the team's offseason radio show, general manager Doug Melvin tabbed Hernandez as a sleeper candidate to make the starting rotation in Spring Training. With Ben Sheets and Doug Davis the most likely candidates to make the rotation, six pitchers could compete for the final three spots. In 32 games, nine starts for the Yankees' Triple-A Columbus affiliate in 2003 Hernandez compiled an 8-5 record with a 3.21 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 101 innings."

" ... J.J. Hardy ... Melvin said early this winter that Hardy would compete for the starting shortstop job, but then the team acquired Craig Counsell  ... Expect Hardy to open the season at Triple-A and make his Major League debut sometime this season."

    Luis Martinez MIL apparently no longer in the Brewers' rotation plans for this now :

" ... Melvin said he didn't expect left-hander Luis Martinez to be allowed to report to spring training. Martinez was arrested earlier in the month in a shooting in the Dominican Republic and is still being questioned by authorities. "As I understand it, he's not in jail or prison but he's being held," Melvin said. "It's a legal matter, so I don't know many details. "I don't anticipate him being (in Arizona) for spring training. If he does get the go-ahead or when he gets the go-ahead, we'll sit down as an organization and discuss the situation." (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

    Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News, on Ramon Nivar TEX :

" ...  the Rangers are still high on Nivar. And theoretically major league experience can do nothing but help him. Thing is, he’s still got some projects to work on in the minors. He is still making the adjustment from second base to center field, and while his speed makes up for a lot of things, he needs work on reading fly balls and desperately needs to learn to rein in his overaggressive throwing ... .Rangers want him to stop swinging at everything. To make the most of his great speed on the basepaths, he first must find a way to reach base enough in the majors. Don’t rule out the possibility you will see Nivar at some point this year. It could be in center if Alfonso Soriano or Laynce Nix are better fits elsewhere. It could be back at second if Eric Young or Soriano are butchers in the field."
  

    
Rookie Reports Archive :

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2003 Minor League Stats 1 (Hitters, by OPS, by AAA, AA, A, Short Season, OBA, SLG, Walks, Ks, SBs, Errors)

2003 Minor League Stats 2 (Pitchers, by ERA, AAA, AA, A, Short Season, Ks & Hitters by position)