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03-04 January, 2004
  Winter
ball ...Playoffs -- Oliver Perez PIT 4.0 4 1 1 3 5 ... Francisco
Campos CHA 7.0 6 2 2 0 6 ... Edgar Gonzalez ARZ 7.0 3 1 1 2 2 ...
Bobby
Jenks ANA, in relief, 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 ... Alexis Rios TOR 1-2, 2 walks, 2 runs ...
Omar Infante DET 1-3, 2 walks ... Alberto Callaspo ANA 1-2, 2 runs, walk, RBI
... Derrick Gibson FA 3-4, homer, 3 RBI ...
John
Sickels, ESPN.com, on a major sleeper -- Jayson Nix 2B COL : "
... A pitcher/shortstop as a prep, Nix moved to second base after signing due to
questions about his range. He has good pop for a middle infielder and is one of
the better "sleeper" prospects around ... a good athlete, with
surprising strength for his size ... will hammer most fastballs and will
usually hold in well against breaking balls. He strikes out too much when he
tries too hard to hit for power ... Defensively, he has a very strong arm
for second base ... range is adequate. He made 21 errors last year at Visalia,
but his reliability should improve with more experience. Scouts praise his work
ethic, and say he is a baseball rat." "
... most notable thing in his record is his unusual power for a second baseman.
He knocked 21 homers last year, but his 46 doubles were equally as impressive
... projects as a .260-.270 hitter up the ladder. But with enough power
production, that's fine, and the thin air in Coors Field will likely boost those
numbers ... has major breakthrough potential. His power makes him an attractive
fantasy investment as a middle infielder and playing in Coors will boost his
numbers even further. The main concern is his plate discipline ... I'm inclined
to be optimistic about Nix, and I think he's one of the most promising middle
infield prospects in the game."
Carlos
Hernandez HOU might be in the running for a rotation spot :
"
... Hernandez reached the final stages of a year-long rehab effort when he made
six solid starts in the Venezuelan Winter League and will spend the final two
months of the offseason resting his left shoulder. Hernandez, who has not
pitched in the majors since 2002, worked mostly on his fastball and curveball in
Venezuela, with his fastball being clocked as high as 95 mph in his final three
starts. He struggled with his command early but improved toward the end after
adding an extra five minutes onto his 15-minute pregame warmups. (TSN)
02 January, 2004
Hmmm
... probably just the holiday cheer ... but Dayn Perry certainly likes Greg
Miller LA ... selected as the third best lefty prospect ... and from an earlier
report, as the seventh best righty ! Perry, in his report for FoxSports,
went Zack Greinke KC, Edwin Jackson LA & Chin-Hui
Tsao COL 1-2-3. Ervin Santana ANA grabbed the fourth
spot : "
... Santana ... began drawing attention after his impressive strikeout
performance in the rookie-level Arizona League. This past season, he looked
strong in the hitter-friendly Cal League, striking out more than a batter per
inning and showing solid command. Late in the season, he earned a promotion to
Double-A and looked solid despite being younger than his peers. He doesn't have
the ceiling of Greinke or Jackson, but he's a fine prospect. If he refines his
breaking pitches, he may soon be on their level. " Greinke
has won the top spot among RHP in all three ratings thus far (although he
rated #5 over-all in Mike Gullo's Top 100, three spots behind lefty Greg
Miller). OAK's Joe Blanton rated #5 in the Fox preview : OAK's Joe Blanton rated #5 in the Fox preview :"
... Blanton ... spent most of the year in the Midwest League. He was older than
most of his peer group, but, even so, his numbers there were highly, highly
impressive (133 innings, 2.57 ERA, 144 strikeouts, 7.6 K/BB ratio). He skipped
High-A altogether and again looked strong in 35 innings at the Double-A level.
Scouts regard his stuff as average, but his repertoire is deep. His command has
been superb thus far, and he's been fairly stingy with the homers. He'll spend
almost all of 2004 in the high minors, and it'll be a critical year for
him. "
... Blanton ... spent most of the year in the Midwest League. He was older than
most of his peer group, but, even so, his numbers there were highly, highly
impressive (133 innings, 2.57 ERA, 144 strikeouts, 7.6 K/BB ratio). He skipped
High-A altogether and again looked strong in 35 innings at the Double-A level.
Scouts regard his stuff as average, but his repertoire is deep. His command has
been superb thus far, and he's been fairly stingy with the homers. He'll spend
almost all of 2004 in the high minors, and it'll be a critical year for
him." Lots
of interesting reading in Mike's Top 100. A couple of generally
over-looked guys and one who has plummeted in the rankings : "
... 38. Alberto Callaspo ... an amazing contact hitter ... check out his
total of 42 K's over the past 2 seasons (spanning 813 AB). He's got some speed
and gaps power (38 doubles in 2003). He also plays good defense and even could
play short respectably. If you look at his numbers, they eerily look a lot like
those of Rod Carew. Wow, is that ever a lot to live up to. I just have a feeling
he could be a special player." "
... 43. Jose Lopez ... Can it really be true that Lopez has only
just turned 20? A 19-year old shortstop doesn't normally hit 35 doubles and 13
homers in Double A without garnering a huge amount of publicity. That's what
Lopez did last summer. He'll never be a high walk player, but he at least makes
very good contact. Some in Seattle think he's a perfect fit at short, but I'm
not sure … is a move to second or third in his future?" "
... 85. Hanley Ramirez ... You hear a lot of talk about his poor
attitude and undisciplined approach. Even keeping those things in mind, I didn't
view his 2003 season as a disappointment. Yeah, he broke some unspecified team
rules early in the season and no, I don't want to see him become another Carl
Everett. But, from a baseball perspective I saw a lot for the Red Sox to be
excited about. I'm actually just as high on Ramirez as I was last year at this
time, though I know I'm in the minority when I say that." A
little depth beginning to appear in the DET system. Scott Tex, OnDeck, has
posted his Tigers' Top 10 and righty starter Kyle Sleeth, a 2003 draft
pick, is at the top of the ladder. Joel Zumaya, another RHP,
was the runnerup with OF Brent Clevlen third. Third sacker Kody
Kirkland finished fourth.
The
regular schedules in most of the winter leagues have concluded ... one of the
more impressive performances came from a COL reliever (via the Independent
leagues) ... Matt Miller finished up with a 0.00 ERA in 19 2/3s, 15 hits,
3 walks, 21 Ks in the Puerto Rican League. Of course, in a few weeks, when
Spring Training gets going, this gets filed in the useless information file. The
guy who likely improved his lot the most ... a vote for Alexis Rios TOR
for an outstanding winter in Puerto Rico ... .348, .392, .684 with 8 doubles, 4
triples, 12 homers, 11 walks, 26 Ks in 155 ABs.
01 January, 2004
Lots
to chew over as the New Year begins. Over
at FoxSports, Dayn Perry has made his picks for the best of the lefty starters
and the quality at the top is remarkable. Perry has 'em a little different
that Mike Gullo, TheMinorsFirst, in his Top 100. Perry
likes Scott Kazmir as the cream of the lefty crop : "
... Kazmir, ... highly, highly impressive thus far. In '02, he blew away the
short-season NY-Penn League, and this past season kept it up during stops in the
Sally and Florida State Leagues. He's small in stature, but has a full
repertoire and good velocity on his fastball. He keeps the ball in the park and
has struck out an eye-popping 179 in 127.1 innings as a pro. He needs to improve
his control a bit, but there's plenty of time for that ... ETA: Late 2005." Cole
Hamels was the runnerup with Greg Miller third. Cubs'
big LHP, Andy Sisco was No. 5 (right behind BAL's Matt Riley)
: "
... Sisco ... big-bodied hurler ... is like a lot of high-ceiling young
lefties: lots of strikeouts and lots of walks. Actually, that was before his
2003 stint in the low-A Midwest League, where he cut down on his walks without
sacrificing many Ks. The result was a K/BB ratio of better than 3.0. He's also
surrendered only seven homers in 206 innings as a pro. He'll need to handle the
higher levels before I completely sign off on him, but I think he's one of the
most underrated pitching prospects around." And,
nice to see the Canadian kid, Jeff Francis make the list (in spite
of his COL affiliation). Back
to Mike Gullo's Top 100 ... he has five catchers ranked ... after Mauer, there's
strong backing for ANA's Jeff Mathis (#18 overall) : Jeff Mathis (#18 overall) :"
... 18. Jeff Mathis- C ANA Mathis is proving to be a real offensive force. He
could even rival or exceed Mauer in that area. Though he's not going to be as
complete a player as Mauer, he is a good athlete and should become a better
defensive player as he gains experience behind the plate. Remember, he is a
former middle infielder. The Angels also rave about his leadership
qualities." At
#30, TOR's Guillermo Quiroz: Guillermo Quiroz:"
... Formerly thought of as just a good defensive catcher, Quiroz' bat came
around in 2003. That has elevated him into the elite prospect range. They don't
come any tougher… he's playing the perfect position considering his makeup.
His power numbers, both in the Eastern League and in winter ball make me think
Javy Lopez." Delmon
Young TB? He's the third OF selected (after Alexis Rios
and Jeremy Reed) : "
... Young's mega-power bat gets him on this list before he's even played a real
pro game. It seems to me there's more than just a chance he could be in Double A
by season's end while being just a year removed from High School. That would be
right in line with his prior track record of always playing against much older
competition (and succeeding against it). I can't wait to see just how good his
bat can be." As
evidence of the talent who made the 100, Gullo notes a couple of guys just
missing the cut -- Adam Loewen BAL and Felix Hernandez
SEA. Jim
Callis, Baseball America, with a new-look Mets' Top 10 (with the addition of Kazuo
Matsui to the NYN roster) : "
... When the 2004 Prospect Handbook comes out, Matsui will rank atop our Mets
Top 30 list, bumping lefthander Scott Kazmir down to the No. 2 slot. We had some
internal debate on how high Matsui should go, and the conclusion is that he's
just much more advanced and far more proven than Kazmir to not rank ahead of
him." "
... Here's J.J. Cooper's scouting report on Matsui that will appear in the
Prospect Handbook: Matsui
broke in as a speedy slap hitter, but blossomed into a power threat after
maturing physically and training with weights. His list of awards is lengthy:
seven all-star selections, four Gold Gloves, three stolen-base crowns, one
Pacific League MVP award (1998) ... fans voted him Japan's best shortstop
of the 20th century ... has been likened to all of the best shortstops in the
majors, and the best comparison may to be Rafael Furcal. Though Matsui was a
30-30 player in Japan, the Mets would view any homers as a bonus. Matsui is more
likely to show off his Ichiro-type speed and is expected to bat in one of the
first two spots in New York's lineup. That said, he's stronger than Ichiro and
doesn't use Ichiro's slap-hitting approach. Matsui's solid on-base percentages
in Japan were based more on his high batting averages than on his ability to
draw walks. As his power numbers grew, so did his strikeouts, and there's some
concern that he might struggle making contact in his first year in the States.
There are fewer worries about his glove. One Pacific Rim scout predicted that
Matsui immediately will become the best defensive shortstop in the game, while a
second compared him to Omar Vizquel. The consensus is that Matsui has good
range, smooth hands and a plus arm ... should be one of the better shortstops in
the National League, and the Mets believe he's good enough to force Jose Reyes,
baseball's best young shortstop, to second base." Matsui
broke in as a speedy slap hitter, but blossomed into a power threat after
maturing physically and training with weights. His list of awards is lengthy:
seven all-star selections, four Gold Gloves, three stolen-base crowns, one
Pacific League MVP award (1998) ... fans voted him Japan's best shortstop
of the 20th century ... has been likened to all of the best shortstops in the
majors, and the best comparison may to be Rafael Furcal. Though Matsui was a
30-30 player in Japan, the Mets would view any homers as a bonus. Matsui is more
likely to show off his Ichiro-type speed and is expected to bat in one of the
first two spots in New York's lineup. That said, he's stronger than Ichiro and
doesn't use Ichiro's slap-hitting approach. Matsui's solid on-base percentages
in Japan were based more on his high batting averages than on his ability to
draw walks. As his power numbers grew, so did his strikeouts, and there's some
concern that he might struggle making contact in his first year in the States.
There are fewer worries about his glove. One Pacific Rim scout predicted that
Matsui immediately will become the best defensive shortstop in the game, while a
second compared him to Omar Vizquel. The consensus is that Matsui has good
range, smooth hands and a plus arm ... should be one of the better shortstops in
the National League, and the Mets believe he's good enough to force Jose Reyes,
baseball's best young shortstop, to second base."
31 December, 2003
Winter
ball ... Mike Rivera 3-4, 2 doubles, 6 RBI ... Bobby Jenks ANA 1.0 1 0 0 1
1, 3.14 ... Donzell McDonald 3-5, missed the cycle by a single, 4 RBI, .325 ...
Ruben Gotay KC 2-4, triple, homer ...
Ah,
spring can't be far away ... the first of the Top 100s up as Mike
Gullo, The Minors First, beats his own deadline with the cream of the
prospect crop. Top dog, not surprisingly, is Joe Mauer MIN.
The No. 2 might raise a few eyebrows. "
... Greg Miller ... a very mature pitcher… as evidenced by
his success in the Florida State League (and even briefly into Double A) at the
age of just 18! He throws hard for a lefty (90+ mph range) and already has good
command of four pitches. He's a very aggressive pitcher that should fill out his
6'5" frame and become not only a workhorse, by an intimidating presence on
the mound. It's too late to say he'll move quickly… he's already done
it." Just
for comparison, Scott Kazmir was #14, and Cole Hamels
#16. They were the 5th & 6th pitchers on the list after Miller, Zack
Greinke, Edwin Jackson, and Ervin Santana. Alexis
Rios TOR ranked #3 : "
... Alexis Rios ... had a fantastic breakout season in the Eastern League last
summer ... still raw in some important areas. His knowledge of the strike zone
isn't Major League ready and while he has very good speed, he at times seems
like a novice on the bases. He has so far offset the prior by having great plate
coverage and he has had a knack for making consistent hard contact. You don't
often see 6'6" center fielders in the Majors. I'm assuming he'll eventually
be a corner outfielder. Rios could become a mega-star, yet I still consider him
risky. His awesome performance in winter ball vaulted him over Jeremy Reed as
the top OF." FLO
mega-prospect Jason Stokes dips way down on this listing, down to
#76 : "
... Stokes regression in 2003 didn't surprise me that much. His great power is
still what has the scouts talking about him and he'll need to tighten up his
strike zone to realize that potential. I think this summer in Double A will tell
a lot about his future. Adrian Gonzalez has been traded, but new competition for
him arrived in Hee Choi." I
hope to have the lists updates -- Top 100, Top 10s, Top by Position etc, up by
tomorrow.
30 December, 2003
Winter
ball ... Juan Rivera MON 2-4, 5th homer, 3 RBI, .324 ... Miguel Cabrera
FLO 2-4, homer, 4 RBI & 1-2, 4th homer, .& 2-3, 333 ... Alex Escobar
CLE 3-5, double, .270 ... Alberto Callaspo ANA, playing in the OF,
2-4, .346 ... Bobby Jenks ANA 6.0 5 3 2 3 4, 5-1, 3.20 ... Ruben Gotay
KC 2-5, homer, .276 ... one-time NYA prospect Randy Keisler 9.0 5
0 0 1 5, 3.24 ... Rene Reyes COL 2-6, 2 doubles, .298 Kevin
Goldstein, Baseball America, with some notes on emerging prospects in the
Rangers' organization : "
... John Danks, lhp ... The first high school pitcher taken in the draft
(9th overall), Danks has excellent velocity for lefty (93-94 mph), and was
dominating in his first five pro starts before struggling against the far more
advanced hitters in the Northwest League." "
... Juan Dominguez, rhp ... uncanny knack for changing
speeds, Dominguez shot through the Rangers system by going 10-1 at three levels
and leading the organization in strikeouts while receiving a late look at the
big league level." "
... Kameron Loe, rhp ... went a combined 7-3, 1.67 at
Clinton and Stockton while limiting opposing batters to a .208 average. Despite
his size (6-8, 220), he's anything but overpowering, so how his stuff will play
at the higher levels is still a question mark." "
... Ramon Nivar, of ... .347 for Frisco in the first
half of the season and followed that up with a .337 mark in 23 games for
Oklahoma while converting from 2b/ss to center field. Struggled in a late season
callup to the big leagues ...where pitchers took advantage of his lack of
patience." Hard
to think about drafting pitchers in the COL system, let alone relievers.
But, Tracy Ringolsby, Rocky Mountain News, has a possible sleeper in rookie Alan
Simpson : "
... Acquired from Seattle in exchange for
pitching prospect Chris Buglovsky, Simpson was moving along impressively in the
Mariners farm system before stumbling last season. It wasn't all his fault.
Simpson, who went 16-6 with a 2.39 ERA and 243 strikeouts in 203 innings in
three minor league seasons before 2003, initially was diagnosed last summer with
lupus, a chronic inflammation that can be fatal. Further testing showed Simpson
merely suffered from a circulatory problem in his right index finger. Doctors
blamed it on his overuse of a split-fingered fastball, which he quit throwing.
This winter, he has compiled a 1.69 ERA in 17 relief appearances for Lara in
Venezuela." John
Sickels, ESPN.com, on a couple of generally over-looked SPs -- Dan Meyer
ATL and Dustin Moseley CIN : Dan Meyer
ATL and Dustin Moseley CIN :"
... had some problems in college with erratic command, but he's been quite
consistent and effective as a pro. He split 2003 between Class A Rome in the
Sally League and Class A Myrtle Beach in the Carolina League, pitching
effectively at both levels. He combined for a 2.87 ERA and a 158/32 K/BB ratio
in 160 innings. Meyer has a 92-mph fastball and a plus slider. His changeup is
improving, and his command has been much better than anticipated ... we need to
see him at higher levels to be certain, but my feeling is that Meyer will have
few problems in Double-A. He has a fine combination of stuff and command, and is
one of the best southpaw pitching prospects in the game." "
... At 6-4, 200 pounds, Moseley looks like a power guy, but his fastball is
usually in the "adequate" category at 88-90 mph. What makes him
interesting is his command, control, and composure, all excellent for a pitcher
his age. His curveball and changeup continue to improve, and he has a great feel
for his craft ... .His K/IP marks are not impressive at this point, so I think
he will need another 15-20 starts in Triple-A before being truly ready for the
majors. He doesn't throw hard enough to be a true staff dominator, but his
superior command and control should lead to Brad Radke-type numbers once he gets
more experience."
29 December, 2003 Winter
ball ... Michael Restovich MIN surely improving his stock with his
recent surge, 2-4, 2 douvles, .316 ... Ruben Gotay KC 3-4, double,
triple, SB, .270 ... Justin Wayne FLO 6.0 8 2 2 1 2 ... Edgar
Gonzalez ARZ 6.0 4 2 2 1 7 ... Dan Johnson OAK, finally
with a little success, 2-4, double, homer, .176 ... Francisco Campos
FA? 5.0 4 0 0 0 1, 10-2, 2.19 ... once promising reliever Billy
Sylvester having a heck of a tough time, 1.0 2 1 1 2 3, which brought his
ERA down to 10.29 ... interesting to note Victor Zambrano's stats so far
in Venezuela, 2.57 in his 14 innings, but just 5 walks 22 Ks Projections
... now on to the pitchers. Again, I've used one of my teams, my
combined league Mantle squad, as a basis for the comparison between the 2003 Ken
Warren & Shandler BBHQ projections. I've used three categories --
earned run average, innings pitched and baserunners per nine -- for the
exercise. Those are the major ones for SS purposes. And, Ken wins
again.
2003 Actual 2003 Shandler
2003 Warren
ERA IP BR ERA
IP BR ERA
IP BR
Brown Kevin 2.39 211.0
10.2 3.93 151.0 12.0 3.68 184.0 11.3
Williams Woody 3.87 220.2 11.2
3.67 179.0 11.3 3.88 164.0 11.0
Clemens Roger 3.91 211.2
11.0 4.20 165.0 11.8 3.80 200.0 11.7
Franklin Ryan 3.57 212.0
11.0 3.98 163.0 11.0 4.11 119.0 11.5
Glavine Tom 4.52 183.1
13.3 3.75 204.0 12.0 4.02 222.0 12.2
Foppert Jesse 5.03 111.0
13.9 4.17 41.0 12.1 4.05 79.0 12.6
Zambrano Victor 4.21 188.1 13.0 4.83
192.0 14.0 4.50 82.0 13.4
Weber Ben
2.69 80.1 11.9 3.26 69.0 11.7
3.43 73.0 11.7
Rincon Ricardo 3.68 85.2
11.8 2.95 55.0 9.7 2.82 65.0
10.5
Leskanic Curtis 2.70 26.2 13.7
3.95 41.0 14.0 4.04 73.0 12.8
Witasick Jay 4.53 45.2
13.3 3.21 42.0 11.1 3.53 73.0 11.8
Farnsworth Kyle 3.30 76.1 10.5
5.09 69.0 13.4 4.76 64.0 13.1
Hoffman Trevor 2.00 9.0
10.0 2.89 28.0 9.6 3.04 30.0
10.5
Walker Jamie 3.32 65.0
10.8 3.77 62.0 10.2 3.85 44.0 10.2
Benitez Armando 2.96 73.0 12.3
2.78 68.0 10.2 2.72 75.0 10.3
Riske David 2.29
74.2 8.7 3.93 55.0 12.6 3.91
46.0 12.7
Hasegawa Shigetoshi 1.48 73.0 9.9 4.24
68.0 12.7 3.91 63.0 12.1
17 pitchers, 3 categories each, thus 51
points of comparison. Final score -- Ken 28, Shandler 23. The ERA
category was the tightest with Ken best for 9, Shandler for 8.
Shandler was better at predicting IP, being closer for 11 of the 17
pitchers. Ken whipped Shandler in BR with closer predictions for 13 of the 17.
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